South Korea’s Steel Capital Pohang Plunges into Its Worst Crisis in 50 Years

Economic

Summary:

Once the heart of Korea’s industrial rise, Pohang now faces a historic downturn as POSCO and Hyundai Steel shutter core operations amid a dual blow from Chinese steel oversupply and U.S. trade barriers....

Industrial Giant in Decline

Pohang, widely recognized as the cradle of South Korea’s steel industry, is now enduring its deepest crisis since 1973. The shutdown of key facilities by the country’s two largest steelmakers POSCO and Hyundai Steel signals a structural breakdown, not just a cyclical downturn. POSCO has permanently closed its No. 1 Steel Plant and Bar Steel Plant No. 1, once considered symbols of the country’s industrialization. Hyundai Steel’s Plant No. 2 in Pohang has been placed in indefinite suspension since June, with no reopening date announced.

Across Pohang’s industrial zones, “Temporarily Closed Due to Company Conditions” signs dominate once-bustling complexes, painting a stark picture of industrial stagnation. The causal roots of this crisis are twofold: surging Chinese exports and protectionist trade measures from the U.S.

China’s Steel Flood and U.S. Tariff Wall

The first shock comes from China’s rapidly expanding steel output. Over the past three years, Chinese steel exports to Korea have surged 46% to 8.8 million tons, creating a supply glut that drove hot-rolled coil prices down by more than 30%. This has eroded Korean steelmakers’ cost advantages and global competitiveness.

Simultaneously, a second blow has come from the U.S., which has imposed a 50% tariff on Korean steel a severe constraint for a market that has historically absorbed a significant portion of Korea’s exports. Between March and December alone, POSCO and Hyundai Steel incurred over $281 million in U.S. tariffs. These conditions have crushed already-thin profit margins, accelerating the decline in output and forcing cost-cutting through plant closures.

This dual pressure from global oversupply and geopolitical trade friction has exposed the vulnerability of a once-dominant industrial sector in a rapidly changing world economy.

Supply Chain Fallout and Community Impact

The crisis in Pohang is not confined to primary steel producers. It has rippled through the city’s entire industrial ecosystem. Auxiliary companies ranging from material suppliers and transport firms to mechanical contractors are reporting collapsing order books. Some have dissolved entirely, while others operate on a survival basis, hoping for a recovery that appears increasingly distant.

Even flagship development projects have stalled. The Blue Valley National Industrial Complex, initially projected to generate 60,000 jobs and drive regional revitalization, currently employs only 300 people less than 1% of the original goal. This stark shortfall illustrates the correlated collapse in investment confidence and industrial planning tied to the steel industry’s downturn.

A City at a Crossroads

Pohang has long stood as a national symbol of South Korea’s economic miracle, powered by heavy industry and global exports. Now, with its foundational industry in decline, the city faces a critical inflection point. Will it attempt to revitalize its steel production through innovation and policy support, or pivot to new sectors altogether?

This question is emblematic of broader challenges facing advanced industrial economies that must grapple with legacy sector decay, global competition, and the need to reinvent local economies in the face of shifting trade dynamics.

The steel crisis engulfing Pohang is not merely a localized downturn but a reflection of broader structural shifts in global trade, supply dynamics, and industrial competitiveness. As China floods regional markets and Western countries impose aggressive tariffs, traditional steel hubs like Pohang face existential challenges. South Korea must now decide whether to double down on steel modernization or chart a new economic path for one of its most iconic industrial cities.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

Global tech stocks rallied Thursday as investors piled back into AI-related names, buoyed by Nvidia earnings.

Nvidia topped forecasts for revenue, which jumped 62% to $57.01 billion year-on-year, and issued stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales guidance, giving investors the confidence they were looking for to continue placing bets on the AI industry. Shares were 5% higher in premarket trade.

In Europe, Dutch semiconductor firms BESI and ASMI moved up over 3% and 2% in the first hours of trading, respectively. ASML, which makes critical equipment for semiconductors, gained 2.1%.

Asia-listed stocks Samsung Electronics and Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, climbed 3.5% and 3.3% higher, respectively.

Stateside, investors flocked to tech stocks in premarket trade: AMD rose 5%, Arm gained almost 4%, Micron Technology advanced 2.7%, Marvell Technology added 3.3%, Broadcom was last seen 3.1% up and Intel moved 2% higher.

‘Phenomenal growth’

Dan Hanbury, global equity portfolio manager at Ninety One, which holds Nvidia as its second-largest holding in its global strategic equity fund, cautiously welcomed Nvidia’s share price jump in Thursday’s premarket trade.

“As a holder, it’s great to see an early positive reaction but of course as we know those reactions can reverse further into the day,” Hanbury told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“Our reading of the numbers is they are very strong. Clearly, we can get caught up in the quarterly noise of a company like this but if we just put those [numbers] in context … only three years ago they were delivering $15 billion of data center revenue, we’re now looking at consensus forecasts into next year of $280 billion,” Hanbury said. “That is phenomenal growth that these guys are delivering.”

Karen McCormick, chief investment officer at London-based venture capital company Beringea, spoke with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” about some of the recent moves to bulk-up on AI and scale, particularly following Nvidia and Microsoft’s recent push to invest up to $15 billion in OpenAI rival Anthropic.

“It’s always a little bit intimidating to contradict Jensen Huang right after he has made phenomenal earnings results but in terms of the almost incestuousness of the valley and the AI companies, it is more than we have seen in the past,” McCormick said.

“I mean, if you think about traditionally, we might have called something like this vendor financing, where your vendor is helping to support the business,” McCormick said. “In this case we are just doing it with hundreds of billions of dollars and the ecosystem itself is now so intertwined that it’s almost a little bit nerve-wracking because if we are in a bubble and if any of that bubble bursts, what is going to happen to all of the related businesses?”

‘Nowhere near as bad as 1999’

The culmination of circular dealmaking, debt issuances and high valuations added pressure to the market ahead of Nvidia’s much-anticipated results, despite other Big Tech firms posting solid quarterly earnings.

“The flip side to that is that each of them has incredibly robust balance sheets and incredibly robust investors, who may not let them fail either way,” McCormick said.

Quilter Cheviot’s global head of technology research and investment strategist Ben Barringer, added that Nvidia’s valuation isn’t “particularly excessive.”

Valuations aren’t that streteched when you look at the core big tech companies, he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Thursday.

In terms of debt that’s also at the peripheral, he said. While Meta and Amazon have raised debt, “they’re still net cash positioned,” Barringer added.

“I think it’s more about them managing their treasury position and managing their balance sheet, as it were. Yes, it’s not great that they are doing some of this capex from debt, but it’s nowhere near as bad as 1999 where these were very heavily levered telecom companies doing a lot of this capex.”

However, Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC on Thursday that Nvidia is not a bubble barometer. “The concern is about companies raising a lot of debt to build data centers,” he said.

“Any concerns about Nvidia were certainly laid to rest [with Nvidia’s earnings], but that doesn’t mean that we don’t need to keep an eye on companies lending or borrowing to build data centers,” Luria added.

Source: cnbc

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

The U.S. economy added more jobs than anticipated in September, although the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in December.

Nonfarm payrolls for the month came in at 119,000, up from a revised drop of 4,000 in August, data from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Thursday.

Economists had anticipated a gain of 50,000 to the September payroll, while the August figure had been previously reported showing a gain of 22,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four-year high, a gain from the 4.3% level seen the prior month.

Average hourly wage growth rose by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis, a drop from the 0.4% seen in August, and below the expected 0.3% rise.

This report was delayed by the lengthy shutdown of the federal government, which also means October's report will be cancelled and instead combined with November's employment report now due on December 16.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of last month, but the minutes of that meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers were divided over the course of future policy, with "many" participants ruling out a December cut, while "several" saw a cut as likely.

The divide highlighted uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook and prompted traders to scale back expectations for near-term easing.

Going into this payrolls release, Fed funds futures were pricing a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next month, down from a 50% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Oil edged up as investors weighed the fallout from US sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to take effect on Friday, while the European Union explores more measures to squeeze Moscow.

Brent traded near $64 a barrel after declining more than 2% on Wednesday, the most in a week, and West Texas Intermediate approached $60. US penalties on the Russian oil giants have already upended crude flows, most notably to India, and forced Lukoil to seek buyers for its international assets.

Oil Nudges Higher Ahead of Looming Russia Sanctions Deadline_1

Oil is still heading for a yearly loss on expectations for a surplus as OPEC+ and other producers ramp up output, though recent geopolitical tensions have added some risk premium to prices. Russian fuel exports in the first half of November fell to the lowest since the invasion of Ukraine due to attacks on the country’s refining infrastructure and US sanctions.

Suitors are lining up to acquire various parts of Lukoil’s international business following the penalties. Exxon Mobil Corp. officials met with Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani on Wednesday to discuss the Russian company’s stake in the West West Qurna 2 field, which accounts for 10% of Iraqi production.

Meanwhile, the EU is exploring more curbs on entities enabling Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers transporting oil in a further effort to disrupt Moscow’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine. The US penalties on Rosneft and Lukoil are also part of a fresh bid to end the conflict.

Source: Bloomberg

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaway:

BTC derivatives metrics show traders taking precautions, but the data suggests traders are not reaching distressed levels yet.

Bitcoin ETF outflows and tech sector weakness keep sentiment subdued, reducing confidence that Bitcoin can hold above $89,000.

Bitcoin retested the $89,000 level on Wednesday after an unsuccessful attempt to recover $93,500 in the previous day’s trading session. The move surprised traders and led to $144 million in liquidations from leveraged bullish BTC positions. Regardless of the drivers behind the correction, Bitcoin derivatives markets showed stability, suggesting a bullish setup. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_1

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_1

Bitcoin 30-day futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

Bitcoin’s monthly futures premium held near 4% above spot markets on Wednesday, slightly below the 5% level commonly viewed as neutral. Some analysts argued the metric briefly turned negative as Bitcoin traded under $89,200 on Tuesday, but aggregated figures from major exchanges indicate otherwise. A discount in futures contracts typically signals excessive confidence from bears.

Bitcoin traders stay cautious on downside risk, yet panic remains absent

To assess whether retail traders were more heavily affected by the decline, it is useful to examine perpetual futures. These contracts tend to mirror spot markets closely but rely on a funding rate to balance leverage. Under usual conditions, buyers (longs) pay between 6% and 12% annualized to maintain positions, while readings below that range point to a bearish backdrop. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_2

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_2

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC perpetual futures funding rate stood near 4% on Wednesday, in line with the average of the past two weeks. Although this level still reflects a bearish stance, there are no signs of panic or excessive confidence from bears. The weakness appears backward-looking, as Bitcoin has been trending lower since reaching its all-time high on Oct. 6. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_3

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_3

BTC 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC options delta skew remained close to 11% over the past week, signaling that traders have not materially adjusted their risk outlook. Caution persists, as put (sell) options continue to trade above the neutral 6% premium relative to call (buy) options. This indicates that whales and market makers remain uneasy about downside exposure, though current levels are far from extreme stress.

Traders’ sentiment has been pressured by five consecutive sessions of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). More than $2.26 billion has exited these products, generating steady sell pressure as market makers typically distribute execution throughout the trading day. While notable, the figure represents less than 2% of the overall Bitcoin ETF market. Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_4

Bitcoin Futures Traders Refuse to Capitulate Even as BTC Price Drops to $89K_4

Bitcoin/USD vs. tech companies. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Some of the world’s largest tech companies have fallen 19% or more over the past 30 days, including Oracle (ORCL US), Ubiquiti (UI US), Oklo (OKLO US) and Roblox (RBLX US). The shift toward risk-off positioning is not limited to cryptocurrencies and also reflects concerns about weakness in the US job market. Segments deemed riskier, particularly those related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, have faced the sharpest losses.

Additional pressure stems from the consumer sector, which has felt the impact of the US government shutdown that lasted until Nov. 12. Retailer Target (TGT US) cut its full-year profit outlook on Wednesday and warned of a softer holiday season as the affordability squeeze persists. Inflation remains a significant concern, as it restricts the US Federal Reserve’s capacity to lower interest rates.

Regardless of Nvidia’s upcoming quarterly results, some analysts have questioned the “nature of some of Nvidia’s AI investments in its own customers,” according to Yahoo Finance. What has driven investors away from Bitcoin’s digital-gold narrative is still uncertain, but at this stage, the probability of BTC reclaiming $95,000 is closely tied to an improvement in macroeconomic conditions.

Source: Cointelegrapah

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Glendon

Commodity

Economic

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecast for 2025 and 2026.

According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026. The EIA's September STEO forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $64.16 per barrel this year and $47.77 per barrel next year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA's latest STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $58.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $50.30 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $50.68 per barrel in the second quarter, and $52.00 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

The EIA's October STEO saw the WTI spot price averaging $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, $47.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $48.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In its September STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The EIA's latest STEO showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.78 per barrel in the third quarter, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter, and $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, the head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, on November 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $53 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on November 12, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.40 per barrel in 2025 and $59.90 per barrel in 2026. Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will come in at $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Standard Chartered also projected in this report that the commodity will average $63.50 per barrel in 2027.

BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $64.00 per barrel in 2026 back in a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on October 24. BMI is a Fitch Solutions Company, that report highlighted.

Source: Rigzone

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Oil prices inched higher after a sharp 2.1% decline, as traders balanced rising geopolitical tensions with fresh signs of tightening U.S. supply. Markets briefly slipped on concerns that a potential easing of international frictions could release additional crude into an already well-supplied global system, where offshore storage remains elevated and output quotas have increased.

However, sentiment shifted after the EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel draw, far above expectations of 603,000 barrels, reflecting strong refining activity and export demand. Gasoline and distillate builds signaled softer consumption, while investors await policy deadlines that could influence flows from major producers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is holding within a well-defined ascending channel, with price rebounding sharply from the mid-channel support near $4.24. The 4h candles show steady higher lows since late October, keeping the broader trend biased upward despite short pullbacks.

Price is currently hovering near $4.52, just beneath the resistance band around $4.67, where recent rejection wicks appeared. The 20-EMA remains above the 50-EMA, signaling steady short-term momentum, while the RSI has climbed back toward 60 without showing divergence.

A clean break above $4.67 opens the next leg toward $4.82–$4.90, whereas failure to hold above $4.45 risks a slide back toward the channel floor near $4.30.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is tightening inside a symmetrical triangle, with price holding near $59.40 as volatility continues to compress. The descending trendline from $61.47 is still capping every bounce, while the rising base from $57.36 has been respected for nearly a month.

Recent candles show small bodies and shallow wicks, reflecting reduced conviction on both sides. The 20-EMA is flattening and the 200-EMA sits overhead, keeping momentum neutral. RSI remains near 45, offering no divergence but confirming the current consolidation.

A close above $60.84 would signal an early breakout, while a drop below $58.69 risks a move toward $57.36.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Brent crude is coiling inside a narrowing symmetrical triangle, with price hovering near $63.70 as traders wait for a clear break. The chart shows a series of higher lows holding above $63.08, while every push upward continues to stall near $65.21 — the upper boundary that has capped momentum for most of November.

The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are flattening, signaling a market caught in balance rather than trend. RSI sits in the mid-40s, showing neither exhaustion nor strength.

A decisive close above $64.80 would suggest buyers gaining control, opening room toward $65.21 and $66.73. Failure to break higher risks a slide back toward $63.08, where the rising trendline becomes the final support before $61.97.