South Korea Pledges Deeper Partnership with Vietnam to Foster a “Red River Miracle”

Economic

Summary:

During a high-level economic forum in Seoul, South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min Seok committed to strengthening comprehensive cooperation with Vietnam, drawing parallels between South Korea’s own “Miracle on the Han River” and Vietnam’s development ambitions...

A Symbolic and Strategic Partnership

Speaking alongside General Secretary Tô Lâm of Vietnam, Prime Minister Kim Min Seok underscored the enduring trust and close ties between the two countries since establishing diplomatic relations in 1992. Over three decades, South Korea has become Vietnam’s largest foreign investor and a key economic partner, with cooperation spanning manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology. By evoking the “Miracle on the Han River,” Kim sought to inspire a shared vision for Vietnam’s rapid transformation into a high-income nation, positioning South Korea as a “steadfast companion” in this journey.

The Vietnam–Korea Economic Forum, themed “Cooperation in Developing Production Chains in the New Era,” gathered over 500 delegates and 400 leading companies from both nations. Discussions centered on diversifying supply chains, ensuring energy security, and building robust trade networks. Kim stressed that newly signed memoranda of understanding would serve as a foundation for expanding cooperation, particularly in sectors like clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure.

Vietnam’s Development Priorities

General Secretary To Lam outlined Vietnam’s economic progress in 2024 and early 2025, noting that 2025 marks a pivotal “acceleration year” for achieving the 2021–2025 development targets. He emphasized structural reforms, including improving the business climate, dismantling investment bottlenecks, and transitioning from extensive to selective foreign investment. Priority will be given to high-tech, clean technology, modern management practices, and projects with strong value-added and supply chain integration potential.

Both leaders identified science, technology, and innovation as core drivers of bilateral cooperation. Vietnam aims to develop infrastructure, skilled labor, renewable energy capacity, and clean industrial parks to attract high-quality investment. The country is also encouraging foreign partners to collaborate in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, AI, green energy, shipbuilding, automotive manufacturing, and smart urban development.

Targeting Ambitious Trade Goals

The two governments reaffirmed their commitment to reaching $100 billion in trade by 2025 and $150 billion by 2030. Beyond trade volume, the cooperation framework seeks to deepen integration in strategic value chains and increase official development assistance (ODA) for infrastructure projects, including transportation, digital systems, and climate-resilient facilities.

Vietnam called for more open dialogue to resolve challenges faced by Korean investors, including streamlining administrative procedures, reducing compliance costs, and expanding intergovernmental working groups to address investment concerns. In turn, South Korea pledged to facilitate Vietnamese businesses’ access to its market, encourage mutual investment, and expand collaboration in both traditional industries and emerging technologies.

The “Red River Miracle” vision symbolizes more than an economic goal; it represents a strategic partnership where South Korea’s industrial development experience complements Vietnam’s demographic advantages and investment-friendly environment. If successfully implemented, this cooperation could transform the bilateral relationship into one of Asia’s most dynamic economic alliances, while also reinforcing both nations’ positions in global supply chains.

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

In July, Ethereum’s futures monthly trading volume at CME reached an unprecedented level of $118 billion, marking an 82% increase from the previous month. Data from CoinGlass highlights a dramatic 75% surge in open interest, rising from $2.97 billion in June to $5.21 billion, boosting ETH coin’s price to over $4,300 by the weekend.

CME and Global Market Record Levels

The record-breaking trends at CME are mirrored globally as Ethereum futures trading volume across all exchanges hit $2.12 trillion in July. This reflects a 38% monthly increase, surpassing the previous May 2021 record of $1.87 trillion by 13%. By August 9, the total open interest was nearing an all-time high of $36.3 billion.

CoinGlass CME Ethereum

Ethereum’s price exceeded $4,300 on a Saturday for the first time since December 2021. By Monday, it climbed to $4,350 but pulled back slightly later that day. Despite the fluctuation, current levels are only 14% below the all-time high of $4,878 set in November 2021.

Rising Investor Interest Coupled with Funding Rates

Another significant factor in the markets is that funding rates are not at the extreme levels seen in December 2024, indicating that despite increased trading volumes, there’s no excessive leverage usage. Additionally, Google search data shows rising interest in Ethereum. By mid-month, “Ethereum” search volumes reached their peak since June 2022.

Data from CryptoAppsy reveals that ETH coin was trading at $4,303, up by 0.78% within the last 24 hours. The data shows significant growth, with prices rising 18.64% in the last week and 45.5% over the past 30 days.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Extension as a Tactical Pause

The decision to extend the truce until mid-November, announced just hours before higher tariffs were due to take effect, reflects both sides’ desire to avoid another shock to trade flows while talks continue. This “pause” not only prevents an escalation but also creates a window to prepare for the anticipated Trump–Xi summit. As Xinbo Wu of Fudan University notes, this is likely to be a “long and contentious bargaining process” given how far apart the two sides’ core priorities remain.

Donald Trump’s top priority remains narrowing the trade deficit and reshoring manufacturing. This requires Beijing to significantly increase purchases of US goods, especially agricultural products, which carry substantial political weight in farm states. Trump’s public push for China to quadruple soybean orders is both an economic and electoral play. Although China’s soybean imports from the US have risen sharply in recent months, the scale still falls short of fully meeting US demands particularly since China failed to deliver on the $200 billion annual purchase pledge in the 2020 “Phase One” deal, citing COVID-19 disruptions.

China’s Objective: Full Tariff Removal and Technology Access

Beijing aims to see all additional tariffs removed and restrictions on technology and certain companies lifted. The 90-day suspension of measures against “unreliable entities” and export control list targets reflects China’s willingness to offer conditional concessions. Technology export controls are a critical battleground: China wants looser restrictions on AI-related semiconductors, while US national security hawks warn that such technology could strengthen China’s military capabilities. Any US concessions here must balance economic benefits with strategic risk.

China’s dominance in rare earth mining and processing gives it a potent leverage point. In June, Beijing eased its export ban on rare earths and magnets to the US, triggering a surge in shipments rare earth exports rose 60% year-on-year that month, while rare earth magnet exports to the US jumped more than sevenfold. However, the subsequent drop in July exports shows China is keeping supply tight enough to retain its bargaining power. This resource advantage could be used to extract US concessions in other areas, notably technology.

Risk of a Half-Measured Agreement

Experts like Jeff Moon caution that even if a new deal is signed, it will likely sidestep core structural issues such as China’s state-subsidized industrial overcapacity. This raises the possibility of an indefinite “low-intensity” trade conflict marked by recurring truce extensions. Such a scenario would maintain a degree of instability in global trade, as companies and investors would remain exposed to the risk of sudden tariff or export control changes.

With average tariffs still extremely high 54.9% on Chinese goods entering the US and 32.6% on US goods entering China the cost burden on both economies remains heavy. The extension may provide short-term relief for equity markets and some support for currency stability, but without a genuine breakthrough, the threat of renewed trade escalation will continue to cast a shadow over global markets. For investors, the real risk lies not in the current 90-day reprieve but in the uncertainty that will follow if the summit fails to deliver concrete progress.

Source: CNBC

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Market Overview

Bitcoin’s attempt to extend last week’s bullish momentum into fresh record territory met with swift selling pressure, sending the leading cryptocurrency down to $118,500 by Tuesday morning Asia time. This marked a 2.8% pullback from Monday’s session high of $122,200, though BTC still held a modest 0.4% gain over the past 24 hours. Ether maintained relative stability, hovering above $4,200 with a 0.8% daily rise, while high-beta altcoins such as Solana’s SOL, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Sui (SUI) endured steeper losses of 3–4%, reflecting a rotation out of more speculative assets.

James Van Straten, senior analyst at CoinDesk, highlighted a key technical nuance in BTC’s price action: the creation of a weekend “gap” in the CME bitcoin futures market. The gap, formed between Friday’s close at $117,430 and Monday’s open at $119,000, often serves as a magnet for short-term price retracements as traders seek to “fill” the space before resuming trend movements. Historically, such gaps have been closed in the ensuing sessions, adding weight to the case for a potential dip before any sustained upside continuation.

Macro Backdrop and Inflation Sensitivity

The imminent release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index for July is poised to be the week’s primary macro driver. Market consensus anticipates a modest uptick in core CPI, but the actual print could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy over the next quarter. Given bitcoin’s growing correlation with risk assets during macro-sensitive periods, a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could trigger a reassessment of interest rate cut bets, pressuring BTC lower. Conversely, a softer CPI could extend the recent rally by reviving liquidity and risk appetite. Producer Price Index data later in the week will provide an additional inflation pulse check.

In a Monday market note, Bitfinex analysts advised caution, pointing to the possibility of a retracement toward the $110,000 region in the event of risk-off flows. They observed that bitcoin remains in a broadly range-bound environment, oscillating between established highs and lows while repeatedly testing the cost basis of recent buyers. This churn has kept sentiment highly reactive to macro news, amplifying price swings around data releases. For now, BTC’s trajectory hinges on whether upcoming inflation prints validate the bullish narrative or prompt a tactical retreat toward lower support zones.

Source: CoinDesk

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Economic

The global financial landscape is abuzz with anticipation as the United States gears up for a pivotal inflation data release. For cryptocurrency enthusiasts and traditional investors alike, the ripple effects of this announcement could be profound. The Dollar has recently experienced a slight dip, reflecting market jitters and strategic positioning ahead of what promises to be a defining moment for economic policy. Meanwhile, the British Sterling has shown surprising strength, adding another layer of intrigue to the unfolding currency drama. Understanding these movements is crucial for anyone navigating the interconnected world of finance.

Why is the Dollar on Edge? The Inflation Countdown Begins

The US Dollar, often considered the bedrock of global finance, finds itself in a precarious position. Its recent softening is largely a pre-emptive reaction by traders and investors bracing for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This key inflation metric is more than just a number; it’s a critical barometer that influences the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. When inflation is high, central banks typically consider raising interest rates to cool down the economy, which can strengthen the dollar by making dollar-denominated assets more attractive. Conversely, signs of easing inflation might prompt expectations of rate cuts, potentially weakening the currency.

Several factors contribute to the dollar’s current sensitivity:

● Market Speculation: Traders are positioning themselves based on their forecasts for the CPI data. A hotter-than-expected print could spark a dollar rally, while a cooler reading might trigger further declines.

● Federal Reserve’s Stance: The Fed has consistently reiterated its data-dependent approach. The upcoming inflation figures will heavily influence whether they maintain their hawkish stance, pivot towards easing, or adopt a wait-and-see approach.

● Global Economic Health: The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency means its value is also influenced by global economic stability. Any signs of global slowdown or increased geopolitical tension can paradoxically strengthen the dollar as investors flock to safety.

Unpacking the Impact of US Inflation: What Do the Numbers Mean?

The upcoming US inflation report, specifically the CPI, provides a detailed look at the cost of goods and services. It’s a comprehensive measure that reflects the purchasing power of the dollar and directly impacts everyday consumers and large corporations. For investors, understanding the nuances of this report is paramount, as it dictates the future trajectory of monetary policy.

Here’s how different CPI outcomes could play out:

CPI Outcome	Potential Dollar Reaction	Likely Fed Response	Broader Market Impact
Higher than Expected (Hot Inflation)	Dollar strengthens (initial reaction)	Increased likelihood of rate hikes or prolonged high rates	Bond yields rise, stock market volatility, potential pressure on risk assets like crypto
Lower than Expected (Cooling Inflation)	Dollar weakens	Increased likelihood of rate cuts or earlier cuts	Bond yields fall, potential stock market rally, positive for risk assets (crypto) due to cheaper borrowing
In Line with Expectations	Modest dollar movement, consolidation	Fed maintains current policy, reinforces data-dependent stance	Market largely priced in, less volatility, focus shifts to next data points

The “core” CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is often scrutinized even more closely by central bankers as it provides a clearer picture of underlying inflationary trends. A persistent rise in core inflation would be a significant concern for the Fed.

The Rise of Sterling: A Glimmer of Hope Across the Pond?

While the dollar faces headwinds, the British Sterling (GBP) has been enjoying a period of relative strength. This surge isn’t merely a byproduct of dollar weakness; it reflects specific dynamics within the UK economy and the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook. The BoE has maintained a relatively hawkish stance compared to some other major central banks, indicating a willingness to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation in the UK.

Key drivers behind Sterling’s recent gains include:

● Stubborn UK Inflation: Unlike the US, where inflation has shown more consistent signs of cooling, UK inflation has proven more persistent, particularly in the services sector. This has prompted the BoE to signal continued vigilance.

● Higher Rate Expectations: Markets are pricing in a higher probability of the BoE maintaining or even raising rates further, making the pound more attractive for yield-seeking investors.

● Improved Economic Sentiment: Despite ongoing challenges, there have been pockets of positive economic data from the UK, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the pound.

However, it’s important to note that the UK economy still faces significant structural challenges, and the sustainability of Sterling’s gains will depend on continued positive economic indicators and the BoE’s ability to navigate inflation without stifling growth.

Navigating the Volatile Forex Market: Strategies for Investors

The forex market, or foreign exchange market, is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with trillions of dollars exchanged daily. Its immense size means that even slight shifts in economic data or central bank rhetoric can trigger significant currency movements. For investors, especially those with exposure to international assets or cryptocurrencies, understanding forex dynamics is not just academic; it’s a necessity for managing risk and identifying opportunities.

Here are some actionable insights for navigating this volatility:

● Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on economic calendars, central bank announcements (Fed, BoE, ECB, etc.), and geopolitical developments. These are the primary drivers of currency movements.

● Diversify Your Portfolio: Don’t put all your eggs in one currency basket. Diversifying across different assets and even different currencies can help mitigate risk during periods of high volatility.

● Understand Correlations: Currencies often have inverse or direct correlations with other asset classes. For example, a strong dollar can sometimes put downward pressure on commodity prices and, at times, risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

● Risk Management: Implement stop-loss orders if you are actively trading forex. For long-term investors, consider hedging strategies if you have significant exposure to foreign currencies.

● Long-Term vs. Short-Term: Differentiate between short-term market noise and long-term trends. While daily news can cause fluctuations, fundamental economic strength and policy direction often dictate the broader trajectory of a currency.

The interconnectedness of the global financial system means that shifts in the dollar or sterling can indirectly influence the liquidity and sentiment within the cryptocurrency market. A stronger dollar, for instance, can sometimes make Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies less attractive as investors seek safer, yield-bearing assets, though this correlation is not always consistent.

Beyond the Headlines: How Interest Rates Shape Currency Fortunes

At the heart of currency valuation lies the concept of interest rates. Central banks use interest rates as their primary tool to manage inflation and stimulate or cool economic activity. When a central bank raises its benchmark interest rate, it makes borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive. This tends to draw foreign capital into the country, as investors seek higher returns on their investments, thereby increasing demand for the local currency and strengthening it.

Conversely, when interest rates are lowered, it makes borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic growth but also makes the currency less attractive to foreign investors, potentially leading to depreciation. The “carry trade” strategy, where investors borrow in a low-interest-rate currency and invest in a high-interest-rate currency, is a prime example of how interest rate differentials drive currency flows.

The current global economic climate is characterized by central banks grappling with persistent inflation while trying to avoid recession. The differing paces and magnitudes of rate hikes (or potential cuts) among major central banks are creating significant divergences in currency performance. The Federal Reserve’s path for US rates, the Bank of England’s response to UK inflation, and the European Central Bank’s evolving policy all contribute to the complex tapestry of the forex market.Understanding these underlying monetary policy frameworks is crucial for predicting currency movements beyond just the immediate reaction to economic data releases. It’s about recognizing the long game central banks are playing to achieve price stability and sustainable growth.

Challenges and Opportunities: The inherent unpredictability of economic data and geopolitical events remains a significant challenge. Unexpected inflation spikes or geopolitical tensions can quickly reverse market trends. However, these periods of volatility also present opportunities for informed investors who can anticipate and react to shifts. For instance, a clear dovish pivot by the Fed could signal a more favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, while a hawkish stance might suggest caution.

Actionable Insights for the Future: As we await the crucial US inflation figures, remember that the market is a dynamic entity. Don’t base decisions solely on single data points. Instead, look for trends, understand the broader economic narrative, and consider the implications for your overall investment strategy. The interplay between the dollar, inflation, sterling, and interest rates will continue to shape the global financial landscape, offering both challenges and compelling opportunities for those who stay vigilant and informed.

In conclusion, the slight dip in the Dollar ahead of the key US inflation release, juxtaposed with the gains of Sterling, highlights the delicate balance within the global forex market. The path of interest rates, guided by central bank responses to inflation, will ultimately dictate the trajectory of these major currencies. For investors, particularly those engaged with the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, monitoring these macro-economic indicators is not just prudent but essential for making informed decisions and navigating the ever-evolving financial currents.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Trump’s Tactical Gains

Trump has escalated tariffs to historic highs, peaking at 145% earlier this year before being reduced to 30% in May as part of ongoing negotiations. This move, coupled with Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. agricultural goods and halt certain antitrust probes, has allowed Trump to present himself as a tough negotiator without triggering an immediate recession. The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with GDP rebounding in Q2, inflation holding near multi-year lows, and equity markets performing strongly. Tariff revenues have surged into the tens of billions monthly, bolstering the administration’s narrative of economic strength despite slowed job growth and underlying structural risks.

While Trump has achieved tactical wins, Xi maintains long-term leverage. China’s dominance in rare-earth mineral processing controlling 90% of global capacity gives it a crucial bargaining chip in industries ranging from defense to high-tech manufacturing. Beijing has been slow in issuing export permits despite U.S. claims of preferential access, using this as leverage to push for reduced export controls on advanced AI chips. This pressure has yielded results: Trump recently allowed shipments of Nvidia’s H20 chips and signaled openness to sending a reduced version of its Blackwell chips, marking a reversal of earlier hardline positions.

China’s Economic Resilience

China has mitigated tariff impacts by diversifying its export base, expanding sales to South America and Africa. In the first half of 2025, exports grew 5.9% year-on-year, matching 2024’s pace, while its trade surplus reached a record $586 billion. This export stability undermines the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs as a long-term economic pressure tool.

Perhaps most significantly, Xi holds symbolic leverage over Trump by delaying a one-on-one meeting, a gesture Trump values for its political optics. This calculated withholding maintains pressure without escalating conflict, allowing Beijing to extract further concessions while avoiding direct confrontation.

Trump’s current momentum relies on the perception of economic strength and foreign policy dominance. However, Xi’s control of critical resources, capacity to diversify trade, and selective engagement in negotiations suggest that China is positioned for strategic endurance. While short-term U.S. gains are evident, the balance of power in this trade confrontation remains contested, with Xi’s “trump cards” ensuring that Beijing can continue shaping the trajectory of the dispute well beyond 2025.

Source: CNN

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

The USDJPY pair strengthened to 148.44 as safe-haven assets are out of favour with the market.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

● The USDJPY pair continues to rise, recovering after the early August drop

● Investors await Bank of Japan decisions and Q2 GDP data

● USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2025: 148.67 and 149.75

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 148.44 on Tuesday, marking the third consecutive session of gains amid improved global trade prospects, which reduced demand for safe-haven currencies. The US dollar gained support from news of a 90-day extension to the truce in US-China trade negotiations. This eased tensions and gave both sides more time to reach an agreement.

Domestically, market participants are focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Board members remain divided over the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Some advocate maintaining a loose policy stance due to uncertainty surrounding the regulator’s economic forecasts.In the coming days, investors await the release of key Japanese macroeconomic indicators, including Q2 GDP, the Reuters Tankan survey, producer price data, and machine tool orders.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has paused near 148.44. The pair continues to recover after its late-July drop. The rally, which began on 25 July, led to a test of the 150.95 high, followed by a sharp pullback.The support level has formed at 147.33 and 146.61. In early August, the price consolidated in the 146.60-148.00 range, and since 9 August, a gradual upward move has resumed. The pair is now approaching the key resistance level at 148.67.

A breakout above this mark would open the way towards 149.75 and then 150.95, while a failed attempt to consolidate above it could return the price to the 147.33 area. The widening of Bollinger Bands indicates rising volatility and the potential for a strong move in the near term.

USDJPY Surges As Yen Sinks On Broad Risk Appetite_1

Summary

The USDJPY pair is pushing higher and has strong prospects to extend this move. The USDJPY forecast for today, 12 August 2025, does not rule out a possible rise to 148.67.