Silver Leads 2025 Commodity Surge as Precious and Industrial Metals Outshine Oil and Agriculture

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Commodity

Summary:

Silver emerged as the best-performing commodity of 2025, gaining 161% amid soaring industrial demand, supply constraints, and investor flight from the U.S. dollar. ...

Silver Surges to Historic Highs Amid Supply Constraints and Strategic Demand

In a year dominated by macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical disruptions, and shifting monetary expectations, silver outshone all other commodities in 2025 with a dramatic 161% surge, breaching the $80-per-ounce mark for the first time. This performance far exceeded major equity indices, currencies, and most other commodities, cementing silver’s role as both a safe haven and an industrial linchpin.

The underlying drivers behind this performance were both structural and financial. From an industrial perspective, silver benefited from strong end-use demand in electric vehicles, solar panels, and electronics. On the financial side, weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar down nearly 9.5% for the year combined with a low interest rate outlook for 2026, sparked widespread investor rotation into precious metals. These causal forces created a self-reinforcing cycle of rising prices and tightened physical availability.

Additional momentum came after the U.S. formally designated silver a critical mineral, while China introduced new export restrictions, adding to global scarcity concerns. These policy decisions directly affected market flows, driving up premiums for physical silver and pushing spot prices sharply higher. Traders reported physical offers at prices up to $10 above market rates, highlighting the intensity of the supply squeeze.

Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Ride Safe-Haven Wave

Gold also saw a robust year, gaining 66% amid central bank buying and geopolitical risk hedging. While not as explosive as silver, gold's rally to record highs reflected its role as a hedge against both inflation and monetary instability. Other precious metals like platinum and palladium posted strong annual gains, supported by industrial demand and speculative inflows.

Commodities analysts, including Jason Ying of BNP Paribas, suggest that risks from 2025 ranging from geopolitical tensions to rate uncertainty are unlikely to dissipate quickly in 2026, maintaining upward pressure on precious metals.

Copper, Tin, and Aluminium Benefit from Energy Transition and AI Infrastructure

Outside of the precious complex, industrial metals also had a standout year. Copper rose nearly 44%, hitting a record $12,960 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Demand was bolstered by AI-related data infrastructure expansion and global green energy rollouts. Disruptions at major mines compounded the supply deficit, making the rally largely driven by fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.

Tin and aluminium also gained sharply, up 44% and 17% respectively. Tin’s rally was tied to export restrictions in Myanmar and Indonesia, while aluminium prices were supported by China’s cap on smelting capacity and strong demand from electric grids and battery systems. These cases illustrate clear causal relationships between policy restrictions, industrial application demand, and supply-side tightening.

Iron ore showed relative resilience despite a decline in China’s crude steel output. Beijing’s move to relax homebuying restrictions in major cities helped maintain demand for construction inputs, showing how stimulus policies in China continue to shape global resource demand.

Energy Markets Falter Under Weight of Surplus

Crude oil bucked the trend of hard asset gains, falling around 15% in 2025 despite multiple geopolitical disruptions, including drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and sanctions on Venezuela. Brent crude is now poised for its longest-ever streak of annual losses.

The primary cause of the decline lies in OPEC+’s output decisions and weak global demand. Since April, the group added nearly 2.9 million barrels per day to the market. Though production increases paused for Q1 2026, the damage was already done: expectations of a 2026 oil glut remain high. Analysts like Martijn Rats of Morgan Stanley expect further cuts only if prices collapse into the $50-per-barrel range, otherwise gradual unwinding is likely to continue.

Agricultural Commodities Underperform as Supply Outpaces Demand

Agricultural markets delivered some of the worst performances of the year. Cocoa fell by 48%, reversing its gains from 2024 when poor West African crops led to record prices. Improved harvests and weakened demand pulled prices down sharply, reflecting a direct inverse relationship between supply recovery and price trajectory.

Sugar and robusta coffee both shed roughly 20%, while rubber and palm oil each lost 9% amid stronger output and sluggish industrial demand. The exception was soybeans, which ended the year flat-to-positive thanks to a late rebound in Chinese imports after earlier trade tensions with the U.S. eased.

Wheat and corn continued to struggle under ample global supply conditions, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the softs complex. Analysts anticipate some support for palm oil in 2026 from Indonesia’s renewed biodiesel blending mandates, though the upside may be limited by weak global consumption patterns.

2025 Divides the Commodity Complex Along Strategic Lines

The commodity space in 2025 became starkly polarized. On one end, precious and industrial metals led by silver and copper surged to multi-decade or all-time highs on strong strategic demand, monetary hedging, and constrained supply. On the other, oil and agricultural commodities stumbled under the weight of oversupply and softening global growth.

As 2026 begins, the outlook for metals remains bullish, anchored in structural demand from technology and clean energy, alongside expectations of easier monetary policy. In contrast, agricultural and energy commodities face headwinds unless producers implement meaningful output curbs or demand surprises to the upside. The commodity winners of 2026 may again be those aligned with geopolitics, innovation, and infrastructure not traditional consumption cycles.

Source: Reuters

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Manufacturing Recovery Signals Late-Year Economic Stabilization

China’s economy showed a surprising uptick in December 2025 as manufacturing activity returned to expansion for the first time since March, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.1, exceeding both the previous month’s reading of 49.2 and analyst forecasts. A PMI above 50 denotes expansion, indicating that China's industrial sector has found tentative footing after nearly three quarters of decline.

This improvement, while modest, marks a crucial psychological shift. It suggests that stabilization policies and modest internal demand may have started to reverse the slowdown, offering relief to policymakers heading into 2026. More importantly, the expansion occurred without additional central bank stimulus, as the People's Bank of China opted to keep loan prime rates unchanged earlier in the week an implicit vote of confidence in existing conditions.

Composite Gains Reflect Broader, Though Fragile, Economic Momentum

The composite PMI which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors also rose to 50.7 from November’s 49.7, indicating a broader improvement beyond just factory output. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, reached 50.2, further supporting a cautiously optimistic view that the economy is entering 2026 with some momentum.

Chief NBS statistician Huo Lihui noted that new orders rose in December, a sign of “significant expansion” in both production and demand. This reflects a causal relationship: increased domestic product launches and business development activity directly contributed to order growth, reinforcing production pipelines.

Private Sector Data Echoes Official Readings

Corroborating the government’s report, an independent PMI survey by RatingDog also showed manufacturing rising to 50.1 from 49.9, surpassing expectations. Yao Yu, the firm’s founder, highlighted that new orders had increased for a seventh consecutive month, largely driven by domestic market dynamics rather than export-led recovery.

Still, Yao cautioned that business optimism remains below historical norms. Confidence for 2026, while present, has softened likely a reflection of persistent concerns over the real estate slump, sluggish consumer spending, and uncertainties in global demand.

Uneven Gains Point to Structural Weaknesses

While the headline numbers offer short-term encouragement, the underlying data exposes structural imbalances. Large enterprises were the primary contributors to the December improvement, with their PMI rising to 50.8 up 1.5 percentage points from November. In contrast, medium-sized firms hovered just below the expansion threshold at 49.8, and small enterprises slipped further into contraction territory, with their PMI falling to 48.6.

This divergence suggests that stimulus and recovery policies are disproportionately benefiting well-capitalized, state-backed, or export-facing firms, while smaller businesses often more sensitive to domestic demand and financing conditions continue to struggle. This is a consequence of policy implementation and sectoral dynamics rather than a simple cyclical lag.

Markets React Tepidly Amid Caution on Structural Challenges

Financial markets reflected a mixed response to the data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.83%, indicating skepticism about the broader recovery. Meanwhile, the mainland CSI 300 rose 0.33%, signaling some confidence among domestic investors. This divergence suggests that while markets welcomed the headline PMI, they remain wary of deeper issues like property sector weakness and lackluster consumer sentiment.

Indeed, November data on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all underperformed expectations, reinforcing concerns that the recovery lacks sufficient breadth. The central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady rather than introduce further easing suggests a preference for policy conservatism amid financial stability concerns.

Positive Surprise, But Not Yet a Turning Point

Economists such as Hao Zhou from Guotai Junan International described the data as “a very good, positive surprise,” but also cautioned against reading too much into one month’s figures. While the improvement signals that the economy may be stabilizing, the fundamental drivers of long-term growth consumer demand, private sector confidence, and structural reform remain weak.

In this context, the December rebound in manufacturing appears more like a tactical bounce than a strategic turnaround. Without deeper rebalancing and sustained policy follow-through, particularly toward supporting small businesses and reenergizing consumption, China’s economic trajectory in 2026 remains uncertain.

The unexpected expansion in China’s manufacturing sector offers a brief moment of relief for the world’s second-largest economy. However, the recovery remains fragile, unevenly distributed, and heavily reliant on large enterprises. As China enters 2026, policymakers face the dual challenge of maintaining growth momentum while addressing persistent structural weaknesses particularly in the property market, labor outlook, and domestic consumption. The December PMI rebound may be a hopeful signal, but it is not yet a definitive shift in China’s broader economic narrative.

Source: CNBC

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Beijing’s Strategic Pivot: Silver Joins the Ranks of Regulated Critical Materials

China is set to implement new export controls on silver beginning Thursday, a policy shift that will formally elevate the once-ordinary industrial metal to strategic status, akin to rare earth elements. While the measures were announced in October, their enforcement now comes at a time of heightened sensitivity in global markets both economically and politically.

Silver’s elevation to “strategic material” status, as reported by China’s state-run Securities Times, places it under the same regulatory framework that has governed rare earths for over a decade. This shift aligns with China's broader ambition to consolidate control over critical supply chains while reinforcing its geopolitical leverage amid ongoing economic tensions with the United States and its allies.

Export Restrictions Reflect Beijing’s Broader Strategic Calculus

Although China has not imposed a blanket ban on silver exports, it has significantly tightened access by approving only 44 companies to export the metal under new 2026–2027 quotas. These firms will operate under stricter licensing rules, echoing the system used for rare earth exports. This change is causal in nature China’s decision to regulate silver stems directly from its increasing role in global high-tech supply chains, particularly in energy transition, defense, and healthcare technologies.

The new export rules are part of a larger framework that includes tightened controls over other strategic materials such as tungsten and antimony both vital for advanced military and technological applications. This indicates Beijing's growing intent to weaponize resource control in response to foreign trade pressure, mirroring strategies seen in previous years with rare earth minerals.

Elon Musk and Industry Voices Raise Alarm on Supply Risks

Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly criticized the move on X, stating, “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.” His concern underscores the metal’s broad industrial applications, including electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors, and anti-bacterial medical tools. Silver’s strategic value has only expanded as technological ecosystems become increasingly dependent on high-conductivity materials.

The United States has taken note. In November, silver was officially added to the U.S. list of critical minerals, with government analysis citing China as one of the world’s largest producers and holders of silver reserves. U.S. importers now face a complex sourcing environment as Beijing exerts more control over outbound flows.

Market Response: Price Surge Signals Fear of Supply Squeeze

Silver prices have more than doubled in 2025, surging to record highs above $80 per ounce before pulling back to around $73. This rally is driven by both supply-side constraints and macroeconomic trends. China exported over 4,600 tons of silver in the first 11 months of the year far outstripping its 220 tons of imports illustrating its dominance in the global silver trade. Now, with tighter controls looming, market participants are rushing to secure physical supply.

The supply squeeze is no longer theoretical. Canadian silver producer Kuya Silver confirmed that two Chinese buyers recently offered up to $8 per ounce above market rates for physical silver. Days later, an Indian buyer offered a $10 premium. These real-time signals indicate market expectations of a significant supply-demand imbalance going into 2026, catalyzed directly by Chinese policy intervention.

Broader Financial Landscape: Dollar Weakness Fuels Flight to Metals

Silver’s price performance also reflects broader financial currents. The U.S. dollar index has fallen nearly 9.5% in 2025 its worst year since 2017 prompting investors to shift toward hard assets as stores of value. Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, characterized the spike in silver and gold prices as “a flashing warning for the [U.S.] economy.” While correlation rather than direct causation links the falling dollar and surging metal prices, investor behavior confirms the market's growing risk aversion.

Gold has gained over 60% this year, and silver is on pace for its strongest annual performance since 1979, when it surged 470%. Bitcoin, often cited as a modern hedge, has declined by over 5% for the year reinforcing the return of investor confidence in traditional safe-haven assets.

Resource Nationalism Redefines Silver’s Role in the Global Economy

China’s decision to regulate silver exports marks a significant turning point in the geopolitics of critical minerals. No longer just a precious metal, silver now sits at the crossroads of industrial demand, strategic policy, and financial hedging. Beijing’s move reshapes the global supply landscape, threatening to disrupt downstream industries across the U.S., EU, and other manufacturing hubs.

While the immediate policy impact is regulatory, the broader implications are structural. If current price behavior and trade patterns persist, silver could become a new axis of geopolitical competition mirroring the dynamics seen in rare earths over the past decade. In 2026, supply security may rival price stability as the top concern for governments and industries reliant on this increasingly indispensable metal.

Source: CNBC

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Manufacturing Revival Provides Year-End Boost for China’s Growth Outlook

China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in December 2025, marking the first expansion in nine months and providing policymakers with a modest but symbolic victory. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 from 49.2 in November, surpassing expectations and breaking the prolonged trend of contraction that had plagued industrial output throughout the year.

Crossing the 50-point threshold, which separates expansion from contraction, the PMI reading signals a return to growth in one of China’s most critical economic engines. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had anticipated no change from November’s 49.2, highlighting the element of surprise in the December print.

Sub-Indices Indicate Improved Demand Dynamics

The sub-index for new orders rose to 50.8 from November’s 49.2, while new export orders increased to 49.0 from 47.6. This partial recovery suggests a mild revival in both domestic and international demand, likely helped by improved logistics and a stronger-than-expected export performance late in the year.

While causality is difficult to establish definitively, the increase in orders appears to result from easing supply-side constraints and seasonal year-end manufacturing activity, rather than a broad-based demand recovery. Therefore, the improvement may reflect cyclical factors more than a structural turnaround in export competitiveness or consumption.

Non-Manufacturing Sector Stabilizes as Construction Rebounds

In parallel, the non-manufacturing PMI, which captures service-sector and construction activity, edged up to 50.2 from a contractionary 49.3 in November. This modest increase signals stabilization in broader economic activity following November’s dip the first such decline in nearly three years.

The NBS composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, rose to 50.7 in December from 49.7 in the prior month. This rebound may help Beijing justify its decision to avoid launching large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus in the final quarter, a strategy aimed at preserving policy room for 2026 while still striving to meet the 5% GDP growth goal.

Underlying Weaknesses Continue to Challenge Recovery Narrative

Despite the PMI uptick, underlying economic indicators paint a more complex picture. Industrial profits in November slumped 13.1% year-over-year, the steepest drop in over twelve months, underscoring persistent margin pressure amid weak global demand. This disconnect between headline manufacturing activity and corporate profitability suggests the recovery lacks depth and sustainability.

More structurally, weak consumer confidence continues to hinder domestic rebalancing efforts. Lingering uncertainty in the labor market, combined with a protracted real estate crisis, has eroded household wealth and limited consumption a dynamic repeatedly cited by policymakers as a central obstacle to long-term growth.

President Xi Jinping recently acknowledged the issue of "overall capacity excess," a term historically dismissed by Beijing as a Western criticism. In a Qiushi Journal article, Xi emphasized the need for consumption to become the primary driver of growth, signaling a rhetorical pivot toward demand-side solutions. However, similar promises in past years have frequently fallen short of execution.

Structural Transformation vs. Short-Term Stabilization

Beijing now faces a dual challenge. On one hand, it must ensure short-term stabilization through targeted policy support to industries and consumers. On the other, it must accelerate its longer-term agenda of economic rebalancing shifting from an investment- and export-heavy model to a more consumption-led framework.

Recent commitments to address price wars, reduce unproductive industrial competition, and manage sector-specific overproduction reflect a broader recognition of the need to prune excess and foster efficiency. These “anti-involution” efforts aim to restructure production incentives and improve resource allocation. While they may support long-term productivity gains, they could also temporarily dampen output in overexposed sectors.

Encouraging PMI Data Does Not Eliminate Deeper Risks

December’s unexpected PMI rebound provides a timely morale boost for Chinese policymakers, offering some support to their year-end growth ambitions. However, the underlying structural imbalances excess industrial capacity, soft consumer demand, and falling corporate profits remain largely unresolved.

The divergence between activity indicators and profitability metrics signals that recovery momentum is fragile and uneven. Unless followed by tangible improvements in consumption and investment quality, the return to PMI expansion may prove to be a temporary reprieve rather than a sustainable turning point. The path forward for China’s economy in 2026 will depend not only on policy flexibility but also on the country’s willingness to address its longstanding demand-side vulnerabilities.

Source: Reuters

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Mixed Sentiment in Asian Markets as Year-End Holidays Curtail Activity

Asian stock markets delivered a muted and mixed performance as 2025 drew to a close. Major exchanges in Tokyo and Seoul were closed on Wednesday for the year-end holidays, while other regional bourses operated under thin trading conditions. In China, the Hang Seng Index dipped by 0.5% to 25,715.16, continuing its volatile trajectory, while the Shanghai Composite inched up less than 0.1% to 3,966.39. Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.7%, showing resilience in contrast to broader regional hesitation. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1% to 8,706.40.

The closures, including extended holidays in Japan and South Korea, constrained regional volumes and likely dampened investor engagement. With Wall Street’s Thursday session also set to pause, the global trading rhythm has naturally slowed as markets await a clearer start to 2026.

U.S. Markets Edge Lower as Fed Minutes Reveal Internal Divisions

On Wall Street, Tuesday’s session ended in mild retreat, as investors reacted to newly released Federal Reserve minutes from the December policy meeting. The S&P 500 lost 9.50 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 6,894.24. This marked a third consecutive day of modest declines, yet the index remains on track to post a full-year gain exceeding 17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 94.87 points to 48,367.06, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 55.27 points to 23,419.08.

The subdued tone reflected a cautious interpretation of the Fed’s internal split over the most recent interest rate cut. The central bank’s decision to lower its target range to 3.50%–3.75% in December its third rate cut of the year was met with divergent views. Some officials pushed for more aggressive easing in response to labor market softening, while others warned that inflation risks remain elevated. This division, detailed in the meeting minutes, has reinforced expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at its January 2026 meeting.

Technology Under Pressure While Meta Gains on AI Expansion

The tech sector continued to act as a drag on broader U.S. equities. High-profile names such as Nvidia and Apple fell by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, under pressure from valuation concerns and AI-driven volatility. Despite their dominance in the S&P 500, these companies are facing increased scrutiny as 2026 begins, particularly over how sustainable their growth trajectories remain.

In contrast, Meta Platforms rose 1.1% after announcing the acquisition of AI startup Manus. The deal underscores Meta’s commitment to expanding its artificial intelligence capabilities across its ecosystem, from social platforms to emerging metaverse applications. The market’s response reflects a preference for tangible AI integration over speculative hype.

Commodities Surge as Economic Uncertainty Fuels Demand for Safe Havens

While equity markets treaded carefully, commodities saw sharp movements. Gold surged 1.4% to $4,386.30 per ounce, and silver prices jumped an impressive 10.9% a dramatic reversal from Monday’s sell-off triggered by margin hikes at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. These gains were fueled by persistent economic uncertainty, investor demand for hedging instruments, and continued supply shortages.

Copper, often seen as a barometer of industrial health, surged 4.4%, closing out the year with a remarkable 40% annual gain. This growth is strongly tied to infrastructure expansion, particularly in energy systems and data centers. The accelerated development of artificial intelligence technology has significantly strained the global energy grid, leading to heightened demand for copper-based components. The relationship between AI expansion and copper demand is causal tech-sector growth directly necessitates more robust infrastructure, thus increasing copper consumption.

Oil and Bonds Reflect a Cautious Outlook

Oil markets remained subdued. U.S. crude fell slightly to $57.88 per barrel, while Brent declined 7 cents to $61.26, continuing their downward momentum amid concerns over excess supply and muted global demand.

In the bond market, Treasury yields were mixed. The 10-year yield rose slightly to 4.12%, while the 2-year yield held steady at 3.45%. These moves reflect a market still gauging the Fed’s next steps amid an evolving economic picture. Yields have broadly declined in 2025 as rate cuts signaled a shift from monetary tightening to support, particularly in the face of weakening consumer confidence and persistent inflationary pressures.

Economic Crosswinds Keep Fed in a Delicate Balancing Act

The macroeconomic environment remains highly complex. U.S. inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, even as the job market shows signs of softening. Consumer confidence, a crucial economic indicator, has eroded over the course of the year due to higher living costs and trade-related disruptions. The ongoing trade war, spearheaded by the U.S., has intensified pricing pressures and threatens to further hinder economic expansion.

The Fed now finds itself navigating a precarious balancing act. Cutting interest rates could stimulate growth and ease employment losses, but it also risks adding more fuel to inflation. The conflicting nature of these outcomes is central to current market indecision and explains the Fed’s recent cautious tone.

As global markets prepare to transition into 2026, the final days of 2025 have been characterized by mixed signals. While Asian stocks offered no unified direction and U.S. equities wobbled under policy uncertainty, commodities rallied on supply constraints and macroeconomic concerns. With interest rate decisions hanging in the balance and inflation remaining stubborn, investor positioning is likely to stay cautious in early 2026, as markets search for clarity in a fragmented economic landscape.

Source: AP

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Oil Markets Close 2025 on a Bearish Note Despite Volatile Year

Crude oil markets ended 2025 on a downtrend, capping a year marked by sharp geopolitical flashpoints and growing economic uncertainty. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped nearly 18% its worst annual performance since 2018 settling around $61.27 per barrel for March delivery. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $57.90, down approximately 15% for the year. This marks Brent’s third straight annual decline, the longest streak of yearly losses in its trading history, a milestone shaped more by structural supply-demand imbalances than transient market shocks.

Oil prices began the year with strong upward pressure. Former U.S. President Joe Biden exited office by tightening sanctions on Russian oil, directly affecting shipments to major importers like China and India. These disruptions, initially perceived as a catalyst for a price surge, were further amplified by intensified warfare in Ukraine, including Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Additionally, a brief 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June, which threatened transit through the Strait of Hormuz a critical oil shipping route drove prices higher in mid-year trading.

However, these geopolitical events, though causal in generating temporary price spikes, failed to produce lasting effects. The price impact was diluted as the market swiftly adjusted to alternative supply chains, and as OPEC+ responded with a surprisingly aggressive ramp-up in production volumes.

OPEC+ Strategy Adds to Bearish Supply Dynamics

OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, significantly influenced the year’s bearish tilt. Since April, the group added nearly 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) to the global market. This production increase, though initially intended to stabilize market shares and offset lost supplies from sanctioned states, ultimately led to an oversupplied market environment. The decision to pause further hikes in Q1 2026 reflects a strategic recalibration, but the damage to price levels had already been done by year-end.

Forecasts for 2026 further highlight the imbalance. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects supply to exceed demand by as much as 3.84 million bpd, while Goldman Sachs estimates the surplus at around 2 million bpd. These estimates imply that unless demand recovers unexpectedly or OPEC+ initiates a round of deep cuts, the oil glut is likely to persist well into the next year.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Tariffs Dampen Demand Growth

Another critical factor behind oil’s prolonged weakness in 2025 was the slowdown in global economic momentum. Rising tariffs, especially under President Donald Trump’s administration, have curtailed international trade flows and introduced renewed strain on fuel consumption patterns. As trade volumes contracted, the transportation and industrial sectors two of the largest consumers of oil saw muted demand growth.

Here, the link is causal: reduced economic activity led directly to weaker oil consumption, which, when combined with excessive supply, drove prices lower. Tariffs did not merely correlate with falling oil prices they contributed to a chain reaction of declining demand, weaker refinery margins, and reduced cargo flows.

Future Outlook Hinges on OPEC+ Cuts and Price Sensitivity

Looking forward, oil strategists, including Martijn Rats of Morgan Stanley, believe that deeper cuts will be necessary to stabilize the market if Brent prices fall below the low $50s. His forecast suggests that current prices while already soft are not yet low enough to compel OPEC+ into aggressive corrective action. If present price levels persist, the group may continue tapering their previous cuts instead of reintroducing fresh ones.

This outlook illustrates a responsive rather than proactive supply-side strategy, with producers opting to watch market signals before acting. The implication is that volatility may remain high, with any meaningful recovery in prices requiring both significant supply restraint and signs of demand revival both of which remain uncertain.

The oil market's performance in 2025 serves as a stark reminder that geopolitics, while influential in the short term, cannot override structural supply-demand fundamentals. Despite a series of global flashpoints ranging from war in Ukraine to tension in the Middle East the dominant force was the sustained oversupply and tepid economic activity. Unless major producers move decisively in 2026 or global trade conditions improve, oil may face another year of bearish pressure. The year ends not with a shortage, but with a surplus that the market has yet to fully absorb.

Source: Reuters

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An electronic trading board at Hana Bank headquarters in central Seoul shows the benchmark KOSPI closing at 4,214.17 points on Tuesday, the last trading day of 2025. Yonhap

A greater number of Korean companies will be required to provide regulatory filings in English starting next year, offering enhanced transparency and wider market access to foreign investors, while the recently legislated "yellow envelope" pro-labor law will take effect, expanding labor-related liabilities of companies, officials noted Wednesday.

According to the Financial Services Commission, the scope of firms subject to mandatory English regulatory disclosures will be widened from companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) with assets of 10 trillion won ($6.94 billion) or more to those with assets of a minimum of 2 trillion won.

The new disclosure requirement will take effect May 1.

The move is aimed at improving transparency and accessibility for overseas investors amid efforts to enhance the competitiveness of the local capital market, according to officials.

Another major change is the enactment of the yellow envelope law, scheduled to take effect in March.

The revision to the Labor Union Act is primarily designed to guarantee the bargaining rights of indirectly employed workers of subcontractors. It also prohibits companies from filing lawsuits for damages or provisional seizures against unionized workers, which many argue businesses have used to suppress strikes.

The labor reform measure is expected to increase compliance burdens for large conglomerates and foreign firms that rely heavily on subcontracting structures.

The country's minimum wage will increase 2.9 percent to 10,320 won per hour in 2026, lifting minimum monthly labor costs to 2.15 million won.

The government will also expand tax incentives for reshoring Korean firms and extend eligibility to companies that complete the downsizing of overseas operations within four years after newly establishing or expanding domestic facilities.

Foreign companies operating liaison offices in Korea will face stricter compliance requirements as well, as a newly introduced rule allows authorities to impose fines of up to 10 million won on foreign corporations that fail to submit necessary liaison office status reports or submit false information.

Source: Koreatimes

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Silver Leads 2025 Commodity Surge as Precious and Industrial Metals Outshine Oil and Agriculture

Silver Surges to Historic Highs Amid Supply Constraints and Strategic Demand

Gold, Platinum, and Palladium Ride Safe-Haven Wave

Copper, Tin, and Aluminium Benefit from Energy Transition and AI Infrastructure

Energy Markets Falter Under Weight of Surplus

Agricultural Commodities Underperform as Supply Outpaces Demand

2025 Divides the Commodity Complex Along Strategic Lines

Source: Reuters

China's Manufacturing Surprises on the Upside, But Recovery Remains Uneven Across Sectors

Manufacturing Recovery Signals Late-Year Economic Stabilization

Composite Gains Reflect Broader, Though Fragile, Economic Momentum

Private Sector Data Echoes Official Readings

Uneven Gains Point to Structural Weaknesses

Markets React Tepidly Amid Caution on Structural Challenges

Positive Surprise, But Not Yet a Turning Point

Source: CNBC

China Tightens Silver Export Controls, Elevating It to Strategic Status Amid Soaring Global Demand

Beijing’s Strategic Pivot: Silver Joins the Ranks of Regulated Critical Materials

Export Restrictions Reflect Beijing’s Broader Strategic Calculus

Elon Musk and Industry Voices Raise Alarm on Supply Risks

Market Response: Price Surge Signals Fear of Supply Squeeze

Broader Financial Landscape: Dollar Weakness Fuels Flight to Metals

Resource Nationalism Redefines Silver’s Role in the Global Economy

Source: CNBC

China’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Expansion, Offering Tentative Relief to Policymakers

Manufacturing Revival Provides Year-End Boost for China’s Growth Outlook

Sub-Indices Indicate Improved Demand Dynamics

Non-Manufacturing Sector Stabilizes as Construction Rebounds

Underlying Weaknesses Continue to Challenge Recovery Narrative

Structural Transformation vs. Short-Term Stabilization

Encouraging PMI Data Does Not Eliminate Deeper Risks

Source: Reuters

Asian Stocks Mixed Amid Holiday Closures as Wall Street Slips on Fed Division and AI Volatility

Mixed Sentiment in Asian Markets as Year-End Holidays Curtail Activity

U.S. Markets Edge Lower as Fed Minutes Reveal Internal Divisions

Technology Under Pressure While Meta Gains on AI Expansion

Commodities Surge as Economic Uncertainty Fuels Demand for Safe Havens

Oil and Bonds Reflect a Cautious Outlook

Economic Crosswinds Keep Fed in a Delicate Balancing Act

Source: AP

Oil Ends 2025 with Deep Losses as Oversupply and Geopolitical Turmoil Offset Early Price Gains

Oil Markets Close 2025 on a Bearish Note Despite Volatile Year

OPEC+ Strategy Adds to Bearish Supply Dynamics

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Tariffs Dampen Demand Growth

Future Outlook Hinges on OPEC+ Cuts and Price Sensitivity

Source: Reuters

English Disclosure Requirement For Listed Firms To Expand, Yellow Envelope Law To Take Effect In 2026

An electronic trading board at Hana Bank headquarters in central Seoul shows the benchmark KOSPI closing at 4,214.17 points on Tuesday, the last trading day of 2025. Yonhap

Source: Koreatimes

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