Russia Says Ukraine Peace Plan Must Address Root Causes

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

The Kremlin stated on Thursday that any peace plan for Ukraine would need to address the root causes of the conflict, while confirming that despite ongoing contacts with the United St...

The Kremlin stated on Thursday that any peace plan for Ukraine would need to address the root causes of the conflict, while confirming that despite ongoing contacts with the United States, no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated there was nothing to add beyond what was discussed at the August summit in Anchorage, Alaska, between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.

"We can't add anything new to what was said in Anchorage," Peskov told reporters, clarifying the nature of current diplomatic interactions. "As such, consultations are not currently underway. There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called consultations."

When questioned about whether Putin had been briefed on a reported "28-point peace plan," Peskov declined to provide details, reiterating: "I have nothing to add to what I have already said."

Peskov emphasized Russia's position that "a settlement must lead to the elimination of the root causes of this conflict," though he did not elaborate on what Moscow considers those root causes to be.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Nvidia Delivers a Market-Critical Signal

Global technology stocks surged Thursday after Nvidia posted quarterly earnings far above expectations, easing fears that enthusiasm around artificial intelligence had outpaced fundamentals. The chipmaker reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.01 billion and issued strong forward guidance, sending its shares up 5% in premarket trading.

This causal earnings surprise reinforced investor conviction in AI as a viable long-term growth theme, dispelling fears that tech valuations were outpacing performance. Nvidia’s trajectory from $15 billion in data center revenue just three years ago to projected $280 billion next year underscores its central role in the AI ecosystem.

Global Tech Stocks Rebound

The ripple effect of Nvidia’s results was immediate and global. In Europe, Dutch chip firms BESI and ASMI rose over 3% and 2% respectively, while semiconductor equipment leader ASML gained 2.1%. In Asia, Samsung Electronics and Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) jumped 3.5% and 3.3%, reflecting renewed optimism among key suppliers and manufacturers tied to AI hardware infrastructure.

U.S. premarket action mirrored the bullish sentiment: AMD rose 5%, Arm Holdings gained nearly 4%, and Micron Technology added 2.7%. Other beneficiaries included Marvell Technology (+3.3%), Broadcom (+3.1%), and Intel (+2%), marking a correlated surge across the semiconductor and AI-linked hardware spectrum.

Investor Sentiment: Confidence, But With Caution

Dan Hanbury of Ninety One, whose global strategic equity fund counts Nvidia as its second-largest holding, emphasized that while the positive market reaction is encouraging, volatility remains. “We can get caught up in quarterly noise,” he warned, but noted that Nvidia’s long-term data center growth remains exceptional, describing it as “phenomenal.”

Still, the magnitude of AI-linked capital flows is raising eyebrows. Karen McCormick, CIO at Beringea, noted that the deep entwinement between investors and AI firms including Nvidia and Microsoft’s $15 billion backing of Anthropic creates systemic interdependence. This mirrors traditional vendor financing, but on a scale of “hundreds of billions of dollars,” introducing systemic risk correlations if the AI hype cycle were to reverse.

Bubble Risks Balanced by Strong Fundamentals

While concerns over an AI bubble persist, McCormick highlighted that most players in this space like Nvidia, Microsoft, and their AI affiliates are backed by solid balance sheets and deep-pocketed investors. This suggests that even in the event of a market correction, causal risk mitigation may come through institutional stability and long-term strategic capital.

Still, the ecosystem’s tightly linked nature, with multiple firms dependent on shared technological infrastructure and investment flows, poses structural risks. If one major AI player falters, the domino effect across vendors, platforms, and supporting services could prove destabilizing.

Nvidia’s blockbuster results have temporarily silenced fears of an AI valuation bubble and reignited optimism across global tech markets. However, the highly intertwined structure of the AI ecosystem and massive capital commitments underpinning it mean that any future disruptions could reverberate widely. For now, Nvidia’s momentum has reaffirmed investor faith in AI’s commercial viability but the long-term sustainability of this rally hinges on whether earnings can continue keeping pace with expectations.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Stocks

MARKET WRAPS

European shares were on the rise on Thursday as risk sentiment improved following upbeat results from Nvidia, easing worries about an artificial-intelligence bubble.

Investors were also weighing the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting , which were on the hawkish side and showed divisions on the future rate path, Jefferies said.

Market watchers now await the release of September nonfarm payroll numbers for more cues into labor market trends.

However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the full October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report won't be published due to the government shutdown. The November data will include some October figures but won't be released until after the Fed's December decision.

"This reduces the data availability for the Fed before the meeting and thus makes a [decision to hold rates] more likely ," Deutsche Bank said.

The likelihood of a Fed interest-rate cut in December is currently at a 27% probability, according to LSEG data.

Shares on the Move

European chip stocks rose in morning trade after Nvidia delivered revenue that beat expectations and gave a bullish forecast for the next quarter .

Nvidia delivered an impressive performance, suggesting that the performance gap versus peers is likely to widen , Deutsche Bank said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures climbed on Thursday as Nvidia's earnings reignited the AI rally.

"It's fair to say that Nvidia's results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any [AI] bubble fears for another day," Deutsche Bank said.

Forex:

The euro's declines against the dollar are much more than what interest rate differentials justify, ING said.

The dollar rose as the market scaled back expectations of another Fed rate cut next month.

Sterling was trading with a moderate risk premi um that is likely to remain in place until next Wednesday's U.K. budget, ING said.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields edged higher , tracking Treasury yields, as improved market sentiment reduces demand for safe havens such as bonds.

Government bond issuance volumes picked up in the eurozone with Spain and France selling bonds on Thursday, although the upcoming supply was unlikely to weigh on prices significantly , said Commerzbank Research.

Treasury yields edged higher after the minutes of the Fed's October meeting said there were "strongly differing views" about the committee's policy decision in December.

The 10-year Treasury yield is now nearly within Jefferies's target range of 4.15%-4.20%. "Hence, we see only limited upside in rates from these levels ," it said.

Energy:

Oil prices rose after settling 2% lower in the previous session as investors weigh risks to Russian supplies and a mixed U.S. inventory report.

"Going forward, markets will focus on how sanctions reshape trade flows , whether supply growth continues to outpace demand, and the extent to which geopolitical risks inject fresh volatility into prices," MUFG said.

Metals:

Gold prices slipped on a stronger dollar and lower December rate-cut expectations.

Gold faces headwinds from steady policy and a stronger dollar, which saw its biggest jump since September," MUFG said.

Copper

Copper rose in early trading as recent selling pressures appeared to have stabilized, said Sucden Financial.

The base metal was likely also bolstered by improved sentiment on a report from Chile's copper agency Cochilco, which is now expecting an improved price environment , said ANZ Research.

Lithium

Lithium prices were getting a tailwind from a turnaround in market sentiment but continued to face risks from a potential resurgence in supply , said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

Iron

Iron ore declined as a persistent downturn in the Chinese property sector continues to weigh on demand.

EMEA HEADLINES

Swiss Watch Exports Continue on Downward Trend in U.S. Tariff Fallout

Exports of Swiss watches remained on a declining trend in October, driven by a sharp decrease in the U.S. as tariffs continue to take a toll.

Total exports of Swiss timepieces dropped 4.4% in October compared with the same period last year to 2.24 billion Swiss francs ($2.78 billion), according to data published Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, or FH.

BNP Raises Profitability Targets, to Launch $1.33 Billion Buyback

BNP Paribas raised its profitability targets and said it would launch a 1.15 billion-euro ($1.33 billion) share buyback.

The French financial services group said it would accelerate the disposal of nonstrategic assets while delivering growth from risk-weighted assets of around 2% a year in a push to grow profits.

Novartis Expects Steady Sales Growth Through 2030

Novartis rolled forward its midterm sales target to the 2025-30 period and said it is well positioned beyond, citing higher expectations for key drugs that reinforce its confidence in delivering steady top-line growth.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company said it expects sales to grow at an annual pace of 5% to 6% between 2025 and 2030 when excluding currency movements. Last month, following its $12 billion agreement to buy Avidity Biosciences, the company lifted its annual sales growth guidance for the 2024-29 period to 6% from 5%.

Germany's Renk Lifts Midterm Revenue Guidance as Europe Bulks Up Defense

German gearbox maker Renk Group lifted its midterm revenue-growth expectations as Europe increases spending on military equipment.

The company said Thursday that it expects revenue in 2030 to range between 2.8 billion and 3.2 billion euros ($3.23 billion-$3.69 billion), excluding mergers and acquisitions, compared with a previous forecast of 2.5 billion to 3 billion euros including M&A.

GLOBAL NEWS

U.S. Approves Deal to Sell AI Chips to Middle East

The Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced artificial-intelligence chips to two companies based in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, a big win for the Middle East nations as they seek to catch up in the AI race.

The approvals are a reversal from earlier this year, when some administration officials rejected the idea of exporting directly to the state-backed companies over security concerns. President Trump has been talking to leaders of both countries about chip access since he visited in May, discussions that continued this week with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Fed's October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut

Divisions over whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates next month deepened at officials' October meeting, leaving a growing contingent-and potentially a narrow majority-of policymakers uncomfortable with a December rate reduction.

"Participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the committee's December meeting," according to a written record of the meeting released Wednesday afternoon with the customary three-week lag.

Labor Department Won't Publish October Unemployment Rate

The Labor Department said Wednesday it wouldn't issue complete October jobs data because of the effects of the government shutdown.

The longest shutdown on record, which ended last week, stopped the government from gathering numbers needed to calculate the October unemployment rate and other labor-force data, the Labor Department said. That data "is not able to be retroactively collected," it said.

China Is Priming Its People and the World for a New Pressure Campaign on Taiwan

Mao Zedong once said that China must wield both the pen and the gun against its adversaries. It is a strategy China is now intensifying for Taiwan.

With its so-called pen, China's state television is preparing the domestic Chinese population for a new phase of pressure against Taiwan.

Pakistan's Army Chief, Trump's 'Favorite Field Marshal,' Cements Power

The most powerful man in Pakistan is having a stellar year.

Pakistan army chief Asim Munir put up a strong show in a short conflict with India earlier this year-becoming only the second army officer in Pakistan to earn the title of field marshal-and successfully reset ties with U.S. President Trump, who hosted Munir at the White House in June and has called the general his "favorite field marshal."

Trump Weighs Executive Order Targeting State AI Laws

President Trump is restarting attacks on states trying to regulate artificial intelligence, calling for Congress to pre-empt such laws while weighing an executive order that would target states with what he thinks are restrictive regulations.

Trump Administration Pushes New Plan for Ending Ukraine War

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration has drafted a 28-point peace plan that calls for Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia and drop demands for a peacekeeping force to deter future attacks by Moscow, U.S. officials said, resurfacing ideas that Kyiv has already rejected.

The administration is attempting the same approach it used to achieve a U. S.-brokered cease-fire in Gaza last month-draft a multi-point outline and then push the warring parties to accept it, officials said.

Source: morningstar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

During the 43-day US government shutdown, investors, businesses, policymakers, and the Federal Reserve were groping in the dark for clues about the health of the American job market. The federal workers who collect data on hiring and unemployment had been furloughed and couldn’t do their jobs.

Now that the shutdown is over, the Labor Department will finally let a little light in on Thursday, releasing jobs numbers for September — nearly seven weeks after they were due.

Economists expect to see a continuation of what was happening in the spring and summer: weak hiring but few layoffs. That awkward pairing means Americans who have already found work mostly enjoy job security, and those who don’t often struggle to find employment.

Economists predict that US employers added 50,000 jobs in September, unimpressive but an improvement on the paltry 22,000 they added in August. And forecasters expect that the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%, according to a survey by FactSet.

Normally the stock and bond markets would shrug off such old data, said market strategist Matthew Ryan at the financial services firm Ebury. But investors are so desperate for fresh economic news that “we expect volatility around the report to be extremely high".

September job data could sway interest rate cut

The job market has been strained this year by the lingering effects of high interest rates engineered to fight a 2021-2022 spike in inflation and uncertainty around Trump’s campaign to slap taxes on imports from almost every country on earth and on specific products — from copper to foreign films.

Labor Department revisions in September showed that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year that ended in March. That meant that employers added an average of just 71,000 new jobs a month over that period, not the 147,000 first reported.

Since March, job creation has slowed even more — to an average 53,000 a month. During the 2021-2023 hiring boom that followed COVID-19 lockdowns, by contrast, the economy was creating 400,000 jobs a month.

Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at the bank Santander, is a bit more optimistic about September hiring than most of his peers. He forecasts that employers added 75,000 jobs.

President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is expected to reduce the number of people looking for work, which means that the economy can create fewer jobs without sending the unemployment rate higher.

In the past, Stanley wrote in a commentary on Wednesday, the “breakeven’’ point for monthly job creation was seen as somewhere between 125,000 and 150,000. But as fewer immigrants seek work, he says, the job market can remain stable even if employers add just 50,000 jobs a month, maybe fewer.

Once the September numbers are out, businesses, investors, policymakers and the Fed will have to wait awhile to get another good look at the American labour market.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that it won't release a full jobs report for October because it couldn't calculate the unemployment rate during the government shutdown.

Instead, it will release some of the October jobs data — including the number of jobs that employers created last month — along with the full November jobs report on 16 December, a couple of weeks late.

That means the September jobs numbers will likely get extra attention. They are the last full measurement of hiring and unemployment that Fed policymakers will see before they meet on 9-10 December to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.

Source: Euronews

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Political

Nigeria's financial markets have entered turbulent waters following threats of sanctions and possible military action from U.S. President Donald Trump. The remarks, made in response to what he described as Nigeria's failure to protect Christian communities, sent immediate shockwaves across Africa's largest economy.

The Nigerian Stock Exchange saw sharp losses within hours, while consumer prices continued their upward climb—fueling fears that inflation may worsen in the coming weeks. Economists warn that sustained uncertainty could undermine investor confidence and weaken macroeconomic stability at a critical time.

"There is growing concern that prolonged sanction threats could trigger capital flight and intensify pressure on the naira," explains economic analyst Dr. Joel Haruna, speaking from Abuja. He notes that Nigeria's reliance on U.S. trade and financial flows—particularly in oil, security cooperation, and development funding—means key sectors such as energy, finance, and manufacturing could face significant strain if relations deteriorate.

Experts say the Nigerian government may need to accelerate diplomatic engagement with Washington while simultaneously stabilizing the forex market, strengthening trade diversification, and boosting investor reassurance to cushion potential shocks.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Stocks

Asian Market Wrap - Equities Recover Post NVIDIA Earnings

Global stock markets went up because chip company Nvidia reported very strong expected sales, which made people less worried about a possible "bubble" or crash in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry.

The markets focused on technology, especially in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, saw the biggest increases. This happened after Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized the huge demand for their AI chips from big internet companies and dismissed fears of an AI bubble. Other major Asian markets felt the same positive effect.

Although the gains didn't continue at the same high pace all day, the main stock indexes in Tokyo (up 2.6%), Korea (up 2.3%), and Taiwan (up 3.2%) all made large jumps, especially the companies that manufacture parts for the AI supply chain. For instance, major chip and tech-related companies like TSMC (up 4.3%), Samsung Electronics (up 5.3%), SK Hynix (up 2.2%), and Tokyo Electron (up 5.4%) all rose significantly.

A broad index of Asian stocks (excluding Japan) went up by 1.1%, recovering from a recent low. The positive momentum was further boosted by news that the US might postpone planned taxes on imported semiconductors, which could help ease trade disagreements with China.

European Session - European Shares Advance

European stock markets rose on Thursday, driven by a general feeling of relief across global markets. This positive mood followed the strong financial results reported by Nvidia.

The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, was up by 1%, with markets in Germany and France also increasing by more than 1%. Nvidia's excellent quarterly results and promising future outlook came at a critical time, helping to calm investors who had been worried in recent weeks about a possible global AI bubble. Even though some concerns about an AI bubble still exist, Nvidia's performance temporarily lessened the anxiety, causing its shares listed in Frankfurt to jump by 6.2%.

The European technology index climbed by 1.8%, with chip-related companies like Infineon and ASML both gaining 2.8%. Companies that make equipment for the AI boom, such as Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy, also saw increases of 2% and 4%, respectively.

In company news, French bank BNP Paribas saw its shares rise by 5.7% after it announced a higher target for its financial stability measure (the CET1 ratio) for the year 2027.

On the FX front, the US dollar was strong on Thursday, having achieved its biggest single-day gain in six weeks. This strength came after notes from the Federal Reserve meeting suggested it was less likely that the US would cut interest rates in December.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell significantly because people are betting that Japan will not immediately intervene to stop the currency from weakening. The yen hit its lowest level in 10 months at 157.48. This decline started after Japan's Finance Minister indicated that there were no specific talks about foreign exchange at a meeting with the Bank of Japan Governor.

Other major currencies also weakened against the dollar: the euro fell to a two-week low of $1.1510, and the British pound (sterling) slipped to $1.3040. The New Zealand dollar had dropped sharply the day before, hitting a seven-month low of $0.5591, mainly because interest rate expectations in New Zealand are moving away from those in the US; it was stable on Thursday at $0.5611.

Overall, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.5% overnight and continued to climb, settling at 100.25.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices increased slightly on Thursday, recovering a bit after falling the day before. This small rise was caused by news that US crude oil supplies dropped by more than expected. This positive news for prices managed to outweigh concerns that the US trying to help end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could bring more oil onto the market, which is already well-supplied.

Specifically, Brent crude futures went up by 20 cents (or 0.31%) to $63.72 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 22 cents (or 0.37%) to $59.66 per barrel.

Gold price fell in early European trade as markets grappled with hawkish repricing of rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. A resurgent US Dollar has also weighed on the precious metal as the US Dollar Index trades above the 100.00 psychological barrier.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

The European session will be quiet one in terms of data releases as markets begin to brace for the US session.

In the US session, attention will shift to the long-delayed official US jobs report, which is expected to influence what the Federal Reserve decides to do with its interest rate policy next month.

The report carries extra weight now that the BLS has confirmed that Jobs data for October will not be released while the November data will only be released after the Federal Reserves December meeting.

Markets Today: NFP in Focus as Rate Cut Bets Tumble, NVIDIA Earnings Boost Sentiment_2

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the crucial 200-day MA and remains below the 50 level on the period-14 RSI. This hints at significant bearish momentum still in play.

Despite this, the optimism around NVIDIA could propel the index higher with a retest of the 200-day MA and a move higher a real possibility.

Immediate resistance rests at 9610 and 9661 before the 100-day MA at 9734 comes into focus.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must continue to normalise monetary policy by raising real interest rates to "a state of equilibrium" to avoid creating unintended distortions in the future, board member Junko Koeda said on Thursday.

The remarks suggest Koeda, an academic who joined the central bank's board in March, will vote in favour of an interest rate increase if proposed by BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda in the coming months.

Corporate profits remain high, the economy is resilient and prices have been "relatively strong," Koeda said, adding that the recent surge in food prices could affect inflation expectations.

The output gap has been around 0%, while conditions in the job market have been tight due to labour shortages, she said.

"In this situation, the BOJ must continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices," Koeda said in a speech.

Last year, the BOJ exited a decade-long, massive stimulus programme and raised interest rates twice — including in January. It has kept its policy rate steady at 0.5% since then, even as consumer inflation has remained above its 2% target for more than three years.

With real interest rates "clearly low" compared with other countries, the BOJ can keep stimulating consumption and investment, even if it raises nominal rates slightly, she said.

"The BOJ needs to proceed with interest rate normalisation, that is, to return real interest rates to a state of equilibrium, to avoid creating unintended distortions in the future," Koeda said.

Markets are closely watching BOJ policy signals as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has voiced displeasure over the idea of another rate rise in the near term, while urging the central bank to cooperate with government efforts to reflate the economy.

With prospects of prolonged low rates fuelling unwelcome yen declines, however, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that she had no objection to the BOJ's moderate rate-hike path.

The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next policy-setting meeting on Dec 18 and 19, followed by a meeting in January. Many market participants expect the central bank to raise rates to 0.75% either in December or January.

Two of the BOJ's nine members unsuccessfully proposed a rate increase to 0.75% in September and October, in a sign of the bank's increasing attention to inflationary pressure.

Rates still near low end of neutral

At a press conference held after the speech, Koeda said the BOJ's policy rate was still near the lower end of what the central bank views as neutral to the economy.

When asked how soon the BOJ should raise interest rates, Koeda said: "That's a decision to be made by scrutinising underlying economic and price developments."

"With overseas uncertainty remaining, we must look at how this would affect companies' wage-setting behaviour," she said.

Ueda has said that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if it is convinced that underlying inflation will stabilise around the 2% target.

"I believe that underlying inflation is about 2%," Koeda said. "But in order to achieve our price target, it is important to examine the extent to which underlying inflation has remained stable or been anchored."

It is also important to scrutinise whether inflation expectations would be stable and look at factors that affect prices, such as the strength of the economy, Koeda said.

While Ueda has said that the BOJ needs more clarity on the outlook for next year's wage negotiations, Koeda said she was also focusing on developments in Japan's minimum wage, winter bonus payments and how increasing job mobility might affect pay.