Rheinmetall CEO Says Europe Must Catch Up With Russian Ammo Output

Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Rheinmetall's newly-opened factory in Northern Germany — set to become Europe's biggest ammunition production facility — is another step in the region's race to catch up with Russian output, according to the company's chief executive.CEO Armin Papperger on Wednesday told CNBC that Russia had the capacity to put out 4 to 5 million artillery ammunition rounds a year. Comparatively, he said Europe has a yearly output of around 2 million, more than half of which is produced by Rheinmetall.

The European Union has been supporting Ukraine in its military effort to combat Russia's invasion, amid uncertainty over the U.S.' long-term plans to back Kyiv.Europe's "biggest need is artillery ammunition and missiles," Papperger said, stressing the new plant in Unterluess will focus on both items. The plant's output is expected to reach 350,000 artillery shells a year by 2027."We do our utmost, we do whatever we can do to be fast. I had a chat before with [German Defense Minister Boris] Boris Pistorius about that, he said, hurry up. We have to do more," Papperger told CNBC's Annette Weisbach.

Along with other European countries and NATO members, Germany has pledged to ramp up defense spending and expand its military in the coming decade — in Berlin's case, enabled by reforms earlier this year to its debt rules. It has specifically committed to more than double its defense spending to 153 billion euros ($178 billion) by 2029. Some analysts say Germany has more fiscal headroom to deliver on those promises than do the governments of France, Italy and the U.K.Papperger told CNBC he expected new contracts to come in over the fourth quarter this year and throughout the first quarter of 2026, and that it had received down payments from the government enabling it to make new investments.

"The German government is very fair to us," he said.

Speaking at the plant's opening on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the factory was set up by Rheinmetall in a "staggering" timeframe of 14 months."This is exactly what we need to ensure the prosperity and security of our economies and societies across Europe and North America, especially at a time when we are aggressively being challenged," Rutte said.The NATO chief added that Russia and China were "producing weapons and heavy military equipment at an incredible rate" and with "little transparency.""Now we need to see similar efforts to increase the production of more complex capabilities, like tanks and air defense systems and missiles," Rutte said.

Source: CNBC

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Michelle

Political

Britain, France and Germany will begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran at the U.N. Security Council on Thursday, two European diplomats said.

The trio, known as the E3, met Iran on Tuesday to try to revive diplomacy over the nuclear programme before they lose the ability in mid-October to restore sanctions on Tehran that were lifted under a 2015 nuclear accord with world powers.

Those talks did not yield sufficiently tangible commitments from Iran. The E3 have now decided to trigger the so-called snapback of U.N. sanctions over accusations that Iran has violated the 2015 deal that aimed to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon, the diplomats said.

The E3, whose ministers informed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio of their decision on Wednesday, will transfer a letter to the U.N. Security Council later on Thursday.

They hope the move will push Tehran to provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action.

Iran has previously warned of a "harsh response" if sanctions are reinstated. Talks between the E3 and Iran are tense as Tehran is furious at the bombing in June of its nuclear facilities by the U.S. and Israel.

The U.N process takes 30 days before sanctions that would cover Iran's financial, banking, hydrocarbons and defence sectors are restored.

The E3 had offered to delay the snapback for as much as six months to enable serious negotiations if Iran resumes full U.N. inspections - which would also seek to account for Iran's large stock of enriched uranium that has not been verified since the June strikes - and engages in talks with the United States.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told state television on Wednesday night that if snapback was triggered, interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency would be "completely affected and halted."

"We have told the E3 that if this happens, Europe will, in effect, remove itself from the diplomatic arena and dialogue with Iran," he said, adding that Iran would then only hold discussions within a U.N. Security Council framework.

Iran has been enriching uranium to up to 60% fissile purity, a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons-grade, and had enough material enriched to that level, if refined further, for six nuclear weapons, before the strikes by Israel started on June 13, according to the IAEA.

Actually producing a weapon would take more time, however, and the IAEA has said that while it cannot guarantee Tehran's nuclear programme is entirely peaceful, it has no credible indication of a coordinated weapons project.

The West says the advancement of Iran's nuclear programme goes beyond civilian needs, while Tehran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

A Historic Legal Battle

The Modi government’s recent ban on online money games covering poker, rummy, and fantasy sports contests is now facing its first legal challenge. A23, which claims over 70 million players, has approached the Karnataka High Court arguing that the legislation unfairly criminalizes skill-based gaming, equating it with gambling, which is already heavily restricted in India.

In its filing, A23 called the law a “product of state paternalism” and asked the court to declare it unconstitutional when applied to games of skill. The company argues that the ban could wipe out legitimate businesses overnight, threatening thousands of jobs and billions in potential investment.

Industry Fallout

The ban has triggered widespread disruption. Dream11 and Mobile Premier League (MPL), two of India’s largest gaming companies, have suspended their money games. Dream11 CEO Harsh Jain admitted that 95% of the company’s revenue “disappeared overnight.” MPL, backed by major investors, has opted not to pursue a legal battle, instead shifting toward free-to-play models.

The timing is especially painful: India’s online gaming industry, fueled by venture capital from firms like Tiger Global and Peak XV Partners, was projected to be worth $3.6 billion by 2029. Now, that growth trajectory is in jeopardy.

Government’s Stance

The Modi administration has defended the ban by framing money-based gaming as a “social evil” contributing to addiction and financial harm. The IT ministry has not yet responded to A23’s petition, but officials previously said the government has a duty to protect citizens from exploitative platforms.

This stance reflects a broader pattern: Modi’s government has repeatedly cracked down on online activities it views as destabilizing, even when such moves collide with high-growth sectors like gaming and tech.

Broader Implications

The outcome of this case will be critical. If A23 succeeds, it could open the door for other companies to challenge the ban, potentially reshaping how India regulates online skill-based contests. If the law is upheld, the industry may face a forced pivot to ad-driven, free-to-play models with far smaller revenue opportunities.

The ban also has implications for global investors watching India as a frontier for gaming growth. With rivals like China already tightly regulating online gaming, India was seen as a promising market. That perception could shift if regulators signal an uncompromising stance.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Political

Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles and drones early on Thursday, killing at least 15 people including four children in the capital in a sweeping attack President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said was Moscow's answer to diplomatic efforts to end its war.As the sun rose, rescuers were digging through a partly destroyed apartment building on Kyiv's left bank, where a Reuters correspondent saw workers pulling two bodies from the rubble.

At least 38 people were wounded in the hours-long assault on the city which damaged buildings in seven districts including the headquarters of the European Union mission to Ukraine and the British Council, officials said.Across the country, Ukraine's military said Russian attacks struck 13 locations. National grid operator Ukrenergo said energy facilities were hit."Russia chooses ballistics instead of the negotiating table," Zelenskiy said on X, calling for new sanctions on Russia. "It chooses to continue killing instead of ending the war."

Russia's Defence Ministry said its attack hit military industrial facilities and military air bases. Moscow has regularly denied targeting civilians but dozens have died in recent months during strikes on densely populated areas.During the attack on Kyiv, explosions rang out as clouds of smoke rose into the night sky. Drones could be heard whirring overhead.Mayor Vitali Klitschko described it as one of the biggest attacks on the city in recent months.

A push by Kyiv and its allies to end the invasion that Moscow launched in February 2022 has yielded little despite high-level meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.Russia has stepped up air strikes on Ukrainian towns and cities far behind the front line and pushed a grinding offensive across much of the east in a bid to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory.

INFRASTRUCTURE HIT

"Horrified by yet another night of deadly Russian missile attacks on Ukraine," European Council President Antonio Costa wrote on social media."My thoughts are with the Ukrainian victims and also with the staff of @EUDelegationUA whose building was damaged in this deliberate Russian strike. The EU will not be intimidated," he added.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also condemned the assault, writing on X: "My thoughts are with all those affected by the senseless Russian strikes on Kyiv which have damaged the British Council building. Putin is killing children and civilians, and sabotaging hopes of peace."

Ukraine's military said air defences had downed 563 of nearly 600 drones and 26 of 31 missiles launched by Russia across the country.One attack damaged a railway hub in central Ukraine's Vinnytsia region, where officials said a strike on critical infrastructure had left 60,000 residents without power.Ukrainian officials have warned recently that Russia would step up strikes on the country's energy grid as winter approaches.

Moscow's Defence Ministry said Russian air defences destroyed 102 Ukrainian drones overnight in at least seven regions.Ukraine's drone force said it had struck the Afipsky and Kuybyshevskyi oil refineries as part of that attack.

Source: Reuters

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Dark Current

Commodity

The oil market remains under pressure, with Brent quotes edging lower amid expectations of weaker demand and geopolitical factors, currently standing at 66.76 USD.

Brent forecast: key trading points

Investors expect fuel demand in the US to decline with the end of the summer season
Analysts believe oil consumption has already peaked
US crude oil inventories fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million
Brent forecast for 28 August 2025: 63.90

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are falling after rebounding from the key resistance level at 68.50 USD. Investors factor in the anticipated drop in US fuel demand as the summer season ends, while also assessing potential supply shifts amid US high tariffs on India. Analysts note that consumption has peaked, projecting a gradual demand slowdown. According to the Brent price forecast, such expectations point to growing bearish sentiment in the market.

US commercial crude inventories dropped by 2.39 million barrels last week to 418.3 million, according to the Energy Department’s weekly report. Analysts had forecast a decline of 2 million barrels.

Traders are also watching India’s stance in response to US pressure aimed at curbing Russian oil imports after the tariff hikes. However, analysts expect India to continue to buy in the near term, limiting this factor’s impact on the global market.

Brent technical analysis

Brent quotes are retreating after rebounding from the 68.50 resistance level, remaining within a descending channel. The current dynamics suggest a strong likelihood of a bearish impulse towards 63.90 USD.

Today’s Brent outlook points to further downside after breaking below the short-term support level at 66.00 USD and consolidating below the EMA-65. The Stochastic Oscillator gives a bearish signal: its lines have turned downwards, confirming the probability of continued decline.

Another factor adding to pressure is the potential breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, which would reinforce the bearish trend.

Summary

Brent quotes continue to face pressure, with expectations of declining US demand and uncertainty over India’s oil imports increasing the risk of bearish dynamics. Today’s Brent analysis signals that the downward impulse remains intact with a target at 63.90 USD.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Eroding Fed Independence

Rehn highlighted that Fed independence considered sacrosanct since the 1980s is now “wobbling badly” under Trump’s pressure campaign. Trump has openly criticized Chair Jerome Powell for keeping rates steady and recently announced his intention to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, moves that could unsettle markets and trigger a legal showdown.

The concern is not merely political optics; a loss of confidence in the Fed’s autonomy could alter investor expectations on U.S. monetary policy, leading to volatility in bonds, currencies, and global capital flows. Rehn underscored that Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy directly challenges the principle of central banks setting policy free of short-term political influence.

Global Spillover Risks

Rehn emphasized that uncertainty over the Fed’s direction poses global risks, given the U.S. dollar’s central role as the world’s reserve currency and the Fed’s dominance in shaping global liquidity. If institutional trust erodes, both financial markets and the broader real economy could face destabilizing consequences.

He acknowledged that while the dollar’s hegemony is resilient and a rapid weakening remains unlikely, the erosion of its institutional foundations rule of law, democracy, and civil liberties could eventually shift the balance. Such a scenario would represent a structural risk for global financial stability.

Europe’s Response and the Euro’s Role

Rehn urged European policymakers to strengthen the euro’s position as a safe-haven currency. He pointed to the ECB’s independent decision-making as a factor underpinning current euro area price stability, with inflation at its 2% target. However, he cautioned that inflation is expected to dip below target in the short term due to cheaper energy, a stronger euro, and slower services price growth.

The ECB, he said, remains ready to act if economic conditions worsen. Still, the larger message was clear: Europe must ensure central bank independence remains untouchable to preserve credibility and resilience in the face of global uncertainty sparked by U.S. political interference.

Rehn’s comments reflect mounting European unease as Trump tests the boundaries of Fed independence. The issue is not only about U.S. policy but also about the credibility of central banking worldwide. If the Fed bends to political will, the knock-on effects could undermine investor trust in global monetary institutions, elevating the euro’s strategic importance but also raising the stakes for Europe to safeguard its own independence.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Currency Collapse and Market Stress

The rial’s plunge reflects both structural weakness in Iran’s economy and heightened fears of renewed international isolation. At the time of the 2015 nuclear accord, the rial traded at just 32,000 per dollar. Today, it is worth barely a fraction of that, with Thursday’s rate surpassing 1,000,000 per dollar, only slightly above the record low of 1,043,000 reached in April.

The collapse underscores how external shocks such as sanctions or military strikes directly feed into Iran’s financial instability, reducing purchasing power, fueling inflation, and eroding public confidence in the government’s ability to manage the economy.

Snapback Sanctions Threat

France, Germany, and the UK warned earlier this month that Iran’s decision to halt inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could trigger the snapback mechanism a clause in the 2015 nuclear deal allowing sanctions to be reinstated without a UN Security Council veto.

If enacted, sanctions would freeze Iranian assets abroad, block arms deals, and penalize ballistic missile development, effectively cutting Tehran off from critical funding and technology. For Iran, which is already grappling with Western sanctions and restricted access to global markets, this would represent another severe economic blow.

Nuclear Program at the Center

Iran’s nuclear program remains the central issue driving tensions. Before the June war with Israel, Iran was enriching uranium to 60%, just shy of weapons-grade levels, and had built a stockpile sufficient for several bombs. Strikes by Israel and the U.S. may have damaged facilities, but Tehran claims to have relocated uranium and equipment to undisclosed sites, raising fears that international monitors have lost visibility.

Without clear oversight, Europe is positioning the snapback as a way to enforce compliance and restore deterrence. However, Tehran appears increasingly fatalistic. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi openly acknowledged that diplomacy alone “cannot prevent war,” signaling diminished hope for negotiations with the West.

Economic and Political Fallout

Renewed sanctions would exacerbate Iran’s structural economic weaknesses, worsening inflation, unemployment, and capital flight. Export revenues, already strained by sanctions and military disruptions, would contract further, and access to hard currency would tighten.

Domestically, this threatens greater political instability. The rial’s collapse is a tangible symbol of declining living standards, and the regime’s inability to stabilize the economy may fuel social unrest. Internationally, Iran risks deeper isolation as both Europe and the U.S. align on enforcement, while Russia’s support appears limited to technical assistance at Bushehr.

Iran’s economy is at a precarious crossroads. The rial’s plunge reflects a crisis of confidence, magnified by the looming threat of UN snapback sanctions. If Europe follows through, Tehran will face renewed financial strangulation at a time of domestic weakness and geopolitical vulnerability. The result could be an intensification of Iran’s economic decline, with ripple effects across Middle East security and global energy markets.