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The Federal Reserve Accepted A Total Of $3.925 Billion From Four Counterparties In Its Fixed-rate Reverse Repurchase Operations
The Swiss Foreign Ministry Stated That Switzerland Will Continue To Support Dialogue, De-escalate Tensions, And Maintain Regional Stability And Peace Through Mediation
The Swiss Foreign Ministry Stated That The Establishment Of A High-level Committee Under The Memorandum Of Understanding And The Consensus On A Roadmap For Reaching A Final Agreement Within 60 Days Are Positive Steps That Provide A Framework For The Next Phase Of The Process And Facilitate Immediate Technical Discussions
The Swiss Foreign Ministry: Switzerland Welcomes The Constructive Progress Made In The Intensive Diplomatic Exchanges Between The United States, Iran, Pakistan And Qatar In Bilgenstoker
Market News: The United States Will Release 500,000 Barrels Of Crude Oil From Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve To Vitol
According To Tasnim News Agency, Citing Sources Familiar With The Matter, The United States Appears To Be Spreading Such Information To Divert Attention From The Decision Regarding Tax Exemptions For The Sale Of Oil And Its Derivatives
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Told Iranian President Pezechzian That Turkey Welcomes The Agreement Reached Between Iran And The United States
The U.S. State Department Said It Was Deeply Concerned About Reports Of The Rapid Support Force (RSF) And Its Allies Mobilizing Forces Near Ubaid, Sudan
Market News: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Crude Oil Inventories Fell By About 9.1 Million Barrels Last Week To 331.2 Million Barrels, The Lowest Level Since 1983
California Is Suing The Trump Administration Because The State Has Submitted Its Vehicle Emissions Regulations To Congress, Seeking To Potentially Repeal Them
A Spokesperson For The Belgian Foreign Minister Stated That The Specific Date Of The Taliban's Visit To Brussels Will Not Be Announced For Security Reasons
A Spokesperson For The Belgian Foreign Minister Stated That Belgium Issued Five Visas To The Taliban Delegation To Enable Them To Attend The EU Meeting
Japan's Finance Minister Is Reported To Have Held An Emergency Online Meeting With Officials From The U.S. Department Of The Treasury
WTI Crude Oil Fell Below $74 Per Barrel, Down 4.22% On The Day; Brent Crude Oil Fell Below $77 Per Barrel, Down 3.91% On The Day
Qatar Energy Has Released An Updated Statement Regarding The Ras Raffaele Industrial City Incident, Confirming That 13 People Have Tragically Died And 66 Are Receiving Medical Treatment. Qatar Energy's Emergency Response Team, In Conjunction With The Qatari Civil Defense, Quickly And Thoroughly Extinguished The Fire
U.S. State Department Spokesperson: U.S. Secretary Of State Rubio Will Discuss The Iran Memorandum Of Understanding And The Strait Of Hormuz Issue During His Trip To The Gulf
A U.S. State Department Spokesperson Said That U.S. Secretary Of State Marco Rubio Will Visit The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait And Bahrain From June 23 To 25
The US Dollar Fell More Than 40 Points Against The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) In The Short Term, Turning Down 0.1% On The Day, Reaching A Low Of 161.07
ASEAN Secretary-General: ASEAN And China Should Deepen Cooperation To Address Global Challenges
Coking Coal Futures Contract 2609 Weakened Rapidly During The Session, With The Decline Widening To 2.22%, And Last Quoted At 1963.5 Yuan/ton; The Trading Volume Was Approximately 4.995 Billion Yuan, With A Decrease Of Nearly 2,800 Lots In Open Interest During The Day, And Open Interest Slightly Declining

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Australia's RBA hiked rates, bracing for persistent inflation. Hawkish forecasts and a tight labor market suggest more tightening.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased its cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.85%, a move widely anticipated by markets. The decision comes in response to persistent inflation and surprisingly strong growth in private sector demand.
The RBA's Monetary Policy Board noted that while some indicators suggest an easing, the labor market remains tight. This combination of renewed price pressures and a robust economy left the central bank with little choice but to continue its tightening cycle.
Alongside the rate decision, the RBA released revised economic forecasts that paint a picture of stronger near-term growth and, crucially, higher inflation.
The upgrades to the inflation outlook are significant. The new projections imply quarterly trimmed mean inflation will run at about 0.9% for the next two quarters before settling into a 0.7% quarterly pace. According to this forecast, annual trimmed mean inflation will still be at 3.2% by the end of 2026, remaining above the RBA's target.
The central bank expects the temporary factors driving recent price spikes to fade after mid-2024. At the same time, restrictive monetary policy is projected to cool the economy, guiding inflation back toward the 2–3% target range by mid-2028, with the forecast ending at 2.6%.
Despite this long-term path, the RBA Governor expressed discomfort with inflation remaining above the 2.5% midpoint so far into the future. This sentiment underscores the bank's commitment to bringing inflation under control.
The RBA's latest move was heavily influenced by a series of strong underlying inflation reports. This data, combined with stronger-than-expected private demand and a labor market that appears to have stopped easing, convinced the board that more action was needed.
The Role of Supply Capacity
A key theme in the RBA's analysis is its assessment of the economy's supply capacity. The bank now believes capacity constraints were tighter in late 2025 than previously thought, contributing to higher inflation.
However, this analysis raises a critical question about a potential feedback loop. The RBA appears to revise its estimates of supply capacity downward each time it is surprised by a high inflation reading. While the bank maintains it doesn't react mechanically to past data, this pattern effectively links its future forecasts to recent inflation surprises. For example, recent data has led the RBA's models to suggest a higher NAIRU (the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation), which in turn builds more inflationary pressure into its future projections.
The Labor Market Debate
While the RBA views the labor market as tight, the data presents a mixed picture. Of the 15 standard indicators the RBA tracks for labor market tightness, 11 have eased while only four have tightened. The bank appears to be placing significant weight on the few tightening indicators, particularly those from business surveys.
To achieve its inflation target, the RBA's forecasts outline a sustained period of sluggish economic growth. GDP is expected to grow at a rate below the RBA's own pessimistic 2% estimate of trend supply capacity. With the unemployment rate still rising at the end of the forecast period, it raises the possibility that inflation could eventually fall below the target if the timeline were extended. This outlook supports the view that while rates are rising now, cuts could be on the table in late 2027 or early 2028.
Other Economic Factors
Exchange Rate: The Australian dollar has appreciated noticeably since the last forecast, which should theoretically help dampen inflation. However, the RBA has downplayed this factor, attributing the currency's strength primarily to the domestic interest rate outlook rather than broader factors like the sell-off in the U.S. dollar. This may understate the disinflationary impact the exchange rate could have in the coming quarters.
Productivity and Investment: The RBA Governor has emphasized the role of the Productivity Commission in identifying policies to lift economic efficiency. However, this focus may overlook the crucial contributions of capital accumulation and private-sector innovation. The RBA's own weak forecasts for housing and business investment offer little reason for optimism on this front.
Governor Bullock gave no explicit forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. However, with forecasts showing inflation remaining uncomfortably high even after this month's hike, further increases are clearly a possibility.
The RBA has set a low bar for another rate hike. The board will likely wait for the next quarterly inflation report before making its next move. Unless that report delivers a significant downside surprise, another rate hike in May appears likely.
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