Private Jobs Sink In September, But Morgan Stanley Wary Of Bets On Jumbo Rate Cut

Japan will sell benchmark 10-year bonds on Thursday, just two days before the ruling party elects a new leader in a key vote that will determine fiscal and economic policy.

The market is nervous going into the auction with the 10-year yield hovering near the highest since 2008 as speculation mounts that the central bank will raise interest rates in October. An auction of two-year notes on Tuesday exposed growing concerns among investors, and the US government shutdown has heightened worries about a global fallout.

“There are concerns about whether there will be sufficient demand at the 10-year bond auction amid expectations of an October rate hike,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management Co.

The results of the auction are due at 12:35 p.m. Tokyo time, with traders focused on the bid-to-cover ratio. That key gauge of demand stood at 3.92 at the previous 10-year sale in early September, the strongest since October 2023.

Recent bond sales have shown a more mixed picture, though. Supply earlier this week of two-year notes - a tenor that’s typically sensitive to monetary policy expectations - met the weakest bid-to-cover since 2009. Meanwhile, last week’s 40-year debt sale drew solid demand.

Overnight index swaps show markets have almost doubled their forecasts for a rate increase this month over the past two weeks. They are now pricing in a 58% chance of a hike this month. The view received support from Wednesday’s Tankan survey which showed a continued improvement in sentiment among large manufacturers.

While elevated yields should attract some domestic investors, appetite may be tempered by the heavy event calendar in the coming days.

“Primary dealers would place bids only to cover the necessary amount, while it’s possible for investors to place solid bids,” said Keiko Onogi, senior Japanese bond strategist at Daiwa Securities Co. “But with a wave of risk events after the auction, I expect few investors would chase in the secondary market.”

The outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote on Oct. 4 may influence expectations around bond issuance and long-term debt sustainability, as well as the BOJ’s policy path.

Sanae Takaichi, one of the frontrunners, has distanced herself from dovish remarks made a year ago, saying the BOJ should decide monetary policy. Meanwhile, fellow candidate Shinjiro Koizumi is seen as taking a more fiscally cautious view while leaving the central bank to press ahead with normalization.

Japanese bonds are also pressured by the BOJ’s move to reduce its purchases of 10- to 25-year bonds this quarter. At its last meeting, two board members dissented in favor of a rate hike, and Asahi Noguchi, known as one of the most dovish among the nine-member BOJ board, this week said the case for adjusting the policy rate is “increasing.”

Markets will be watching speeches later on Thursday by Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and Friday by Governor Kazuo Ueda for any hints on the timing of further tightening.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Gold steadied — following a five-day rally that saw it reach successive records — as the US government shutdown began and traders added to bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts following weak private payrolls data.

Bullion traded near $3,860 an ounce, about $35 below a peak set on Wednesday, with the suspension in federal operations threatening to create a blackout in crucial economic figures that the Fed needs to make rate decisions. That’s left economists, traders and policymakers more reliant on non-government data, like Wednesday’s ADP Research print, which showed a sharp decrease in private-sector payrolls in September.

Non-farm payroll numbers, which were due Friday, will be delayed because of the shutdown — which also risks increasing pressure on the dollar. Traders have added to bets the Fed will cut rates twice more this year to support a weakening labor market. Lower borrowing costs tend to boost non-yielding gold, which also becomes cheaper for most buyers when the greenback softens.

The precious metal has soared 47% this year, putting it on track for the biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally has been supported by central-bank buying and rising holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds, as the Federal Reserve resumed interest-rate cuts.

Monthly ETF inflows in September were the largest in three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Chinese buyers were also scooping up more gold-backed funds, with the four most popular registering inflows last month following a period of tepid demand.

Gold has also drawn haven demand amid mounting concerns about the Fed’s independence. On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court refused to allow President Donald Trump to immediately oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook while she sues to keep her job — dealing a setback to his efforts to exert more control over the central bank.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The FBI said on Wednesday it cut ties with the Anti-Defamation League, a Jewish group that tracks antisemitism, after conservatives criticized the group for including slain activist Charlie Kirk's organization in a glossary on extremism.In a social media post, FBI Director Kash Patel said the bureau "won't partner with political fronts masquerading as watchdogs."The ADL said it took note of Patel's announcement and "has deep respect" for the FBI.

Patel's announcement followed criticism of the ADL by right-wing voices, including billionaire Elon Musk, over its inclusion of Kirk's Turning Point USA in a "Glossary of Extremism and Hate." Kirk was assassinated in September.After that criticism, the ADL removed the entire glossary from its website. The glossary had said Turning Point USA had a history of "bigoted statements," a charge the group rejects.ADL's website says it "works closely with federal, state and local law enforcement" in fighting extremism and hate. It also notes, opens new tab the FBI had turned to it for data and research as far back as the 1940s.

U.S. officials have taken part in ADL events over the years.

Former FBI director James Comey, against whom President Donald Trump's Justice Department has filed criminal charges, noted at a 2014 ADL summit that the FBI worked with the group to host civil rights and hate crime training for state and local counterparts.

AFTERMATH OF KIRK'S KILLING

The U.S. has witnessed many instances of right-wing backlash against critics and commentators whose views on Kirk after his assassination have upset conservatives.Last month, "Jimmy Kimmel Live" was briefly taken off the air, political analyst Matthew Dowd was fired from MSNBC and columnist Karen Attiah was fired by the Washington Post.Civil rights advocates criticized Kirk for rhetoric they called racist, anti-immigrant, transphobic and misogynistic, citing his remarks on Black, LGBTQ+, Muslim and immigrant communities.

Kirk's supporters called him a defender of conservative values and champion of public debate who galvanized young voters for Trump.ADL documents antisemitism and hate. Its critics say it equates antisemitism with criticism of Israeli policies, including Israel's assault on Gaza and its occupation of Palestinian territories.ADL calls that conflation a misconception but adds that "certain forms of anti-Israel rhetoric and activism delegitimize Israel and its existence, and are antisemitic when they vilify and negate Zionism."

Source: Reuters

The Board of Directors of the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) has announced the appointment of Eng. Khalid bin Salem AlGhamdi as the company's Chief Executive Officer, effective October 1st 2025. The decision reflects the Board's confidence in the capabilities of Saudi talent and their vital role in advancing the Kingdom's electricity sector, a key enabler of the country's ongoing economic and social transformation.

Commenting on his appointment, Eng. AlGhamdi expressed his deep pride in this trust, extending his sincere gratitude to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and to His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister - may God protect them - for their unwavering support of SEC, which has enabled the company to achieve major milestones and strengthen its role in driving national development. He also acknowledged the guidance and close follow-up of His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz، Minister of Energy, whose leadership continues to serve as a cornerstone of SEC's success.

Eng. AlGhamdi also thanked the company's Board of Directors for their trust and support, affirming that this confidence will be a driving force to continue working to fulfil the expectations of customers and shareholders. He added: "Together with my colleagues at SEC, I look forward to a new chapter of collective effort building on the company's past achievements across all fronts. With the grace of God, we will continue to meet the expectations of more than 11 million customers across the Kingdom by providing reliable and high-quality electricity services. Our focus will be on further enhancing grid reliability, and increasing the company's contribution to the ambitious objectives of Saudi Vision 2030 - reinforcing SEC's position as a leading national utility and a key player in the global energy landscape."

Eng. AlGhamdi is regarded as one of the Kingdom's distinguished national leaders. He has held several senior positions at SEC, including Executive Vice President for Technical Services, Acting Vice President of Risk and Compliance, Chief Engineer between 2022 and 2023, and Senior Vice President of Digital and Technology, where he oversaw the implementation of major strategies and programs across the company.1

Source: TradingView

Danielle Smith Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announces plans to submit an application for a new oil pipeline to northwestern British Columbia, in Calgary, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, provides an update on the forecast for the 2025 wildfires season at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on Thursday, June 12, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, provides an update on the forecast for the 2025 wildfires season at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on Thursday, June 12, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

While Alta. Premier Danielle Smith says her province plans to lead an effort to build a new oil pipeline, she won’t say the maximum amount of taxpayer funding she is willing to commit to the project.On Wednesday, Smith announced Alberta is committing $14 million to be the proponent of, and to fund the initial planning stages for a proposed bitumen pipeline to British Columbia’s northwest coast. By doing so, the province will lead a “technical advisory group” that includes Enbridge Inc., South Bow Corp. and Trans Mountain Corp, but none of those companies would be obligated to be involved in the project.

Speaking to reporters in Calgary, Smith said she hopes this latest proposal will make the federal government’s next phase of major projects, which is set to be announced sometime in November by the Grey Cup.Meanwhile, in an interview with CTV Power Play on Wednesday, Smith says she is “very confident” the private sector will step up once the right conditions are met, which includes a lift of the tanker ban.“It’s going to be up to Prime Minister (Mark) Carney whether or not he wants to work with us on being able to advance these kinds of projects or not,” Smith said.

When pressed by host Vassy Kapelos on how much taxpayer money she is willing to invest in the potential project, Smith wouldn’t answer directly.“Are you asking me if I have $34 billion kicking around to be able to pay for this? No, I don’t. Nor does the federal government,” Smith said.Pressed again by Kapelos whether $14 million is the province’s limit, Smith said “I hope so.”“We have to find out what it’s going to cost to build. I’ve been told that it could be anywhere from $20 to $30 billion, and no, Alberta doesn’t have the money to build $20 to $30 billion. We need a private sector proponent,” Smith added.

In a technical briefing with reporters on Wednesday, provincial officials said they have not yet received a commitment from a private firm to take over the project.Smith’s comments on Wednesday contrast remarks she made earlier this year, in which she said governments should not have to be involved in financing pipeline projects.

Alberta has ‘right’ to be pipeline proponent: Minister Hodgson

In a statement to CTV News, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson did not express explicit support for Alberta’s proposal to be the proponent of a pipeline, but said the province has the “right to do so.”“If Alberta wishes to be the initial proponent and funder of a pipeline to the West Coast and put it forward to the MPO (Major Projects Office), that is within their right to do so,” Hodgson said. “We have an active and constructive dialogue with Alberta and will always look for ways to advance shared priorities.”

Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, provides an update on the forecast for the 2025 wildfires season at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on Thursday, June 12, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, provides an update on the forecast for the 2025 wildfires season at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on Thursday, June 12, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

In September, the federal government announced its first phase of major projects, with another list of potential projects that Ottawa would like to see further development on.One of those potential projects is Pathways Plus, an Alberta-based carbon capture, utilization and storage project.“We have listed Pathways Plus as a transformative strategy for Canada and have been clear that a pipeline project must move forward in conjunction with the Pathways Project, which will decarbonize our oil sands to the equivalent of taking over 4.75 million cars off the road,” Hodgson’s statement went on to say.

The MPO, which is being led by Dawn Farrell, former CEO and chair of the board of directors of the Trans Mountain Corporation, is now working to streamline and fast-track regulatory approval for the recommended projects, as well as help further develop the projects under consideration.The MPO was established under Bill C-5 — dubbed the Building Canada Act by the Liberals — and aims to give government sweeping new powers to approve major projects of national interest, which could include a tanker ban lift.

Source: BNN BIoomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday accused Russia of trying to create the risk of nuclear incidents, alleging Moscow had deliberately staged an attack that cut off power to the decommissioned Chornobyl nuclear power station.

Zelenskiy also said Moscow was doing nothing to fix the cutoff of external power to the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, now in its eighth day, and was taking advantage of the "weak" position of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its Director General, Rafael Grossi.

Ukraine's energy ministry said earlier that Russian attacks had cut power to the Chornobyl station, including a containment unit erected to minimise contamination from the world's biggest nuclear accident in 1986. Energy officials said strikes also cut off power to 307,000 customers in the nearby Chernihiv region.

Zelenskiy said more than 20 Russian drones had been deployed in the attack on the town of Slavutych that cut power to the nearby Chornobyl plant for three hours.

"The Russians could not have been unaware that a strike on facilities in Slavutych would have such consequences for Chornobyl," he wrote on the Telegram messaging app, adding that large quantities of spent fuel remained there.

"And this was a deliberate attack in which they used more than 20 drones, according to preliminary assessments, Russian-Iranian Shaheds."

The IAEA, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, issued a statement acknowledging that the plant had experienced "fluctuations" after losing its external power connection, but that alternative lines were used initially and power was later restored.

Russia has not yet commented on the incident.

Ukraine's energy ministry statement made no mention of any possible increased risk of radioactive release as a result of the power cutoff to the defunct Chornobyl plant due to the Russian attacks on Slavutych.

"As a result of power surges, the new safe confinement facility, which isolates the destroyed fourth power unit of the Chornobyl station and prevents the release of radioactive materials into the environment, was left without power supply," the ministry said.

After the Chornobyl station's fourth reactor exploded in April 1986 and spread radioactivity throughout Europe, Soviet engineers hurriedly erected a "sarcophagus" around the reactor.

This was replaced by a new confinement structure in 2016, while the plant's other three reactors were gradually taken out of service.

The plant was briefly occupied by Russian forces at the beginning of Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. And a Russian drone pierced the confinement structure's roof in February.

FIXING THE EXTERNAL POWER LINE AT ZAPORIZHZHIA

Zelenskiy also again blamed Russia's military for the cutoff of the external power line last week at the Zaporizhzhia plant in southeastern Ukraine.

"And the Russians are doing absolutely nothing to fix the situation or allow Ukrainian specialists to restore the external power supply to the plant," he said.

Russia, he said, was "deliberately creating the risk of radiation incidents, exploiting, unfortunately, the weak position of the IAEA and its Director General, Rafael Grossi, as well as the dispersion of world attention."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia was doing everything to ensure the Zaporizhzhia plant's safety. He said it had come under repeated fire from Ukrainian forces.

Russia seized the plant in the early weeks of the war and each side regularly accuses the other of endangering nuclear safety.

Zelenskiy on Tuesday had said that the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant was "critical".

Grossi, head of the IAEA, responded by saying there was no immediate danger from the power cutoff as emergency diesel generators were in operation. But he added that the external lines needed to be fixed.

Source: Reuters