Powell Reiterates No Rush to Cut As Fed Awaits Tariff Clarity

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will reiterate to lawmakers the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee comes on the heels of the Fed’s decision last week to leave interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The central bank’s on-hold position has angered Trump, who has consistently called for lower rates and argued the Fed is keeping borrowing costs for the US government high by holding rates steady.

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate,” Trump said on social media early Tuesday. “I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

Powell and several other policymakers have pointed to increased economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s stepped up use of tariffs, and other policy changes, to justify leaving rates steady for now. Many forecasters expect the tariffs to put upward pressure on inflation and dent economic growth, although those estimates carry significant uncertainty.

Trump has frequently shifted on the specifics of his tariff policies, and the administration says it’s working on trade deals that could affect the nature and level of the duties.

“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said in a statement that largely echoed remarks he delivered last week. “Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

Powell said the tariffs’ impact on inflation could be short-lived or possibly be more persistent.

Avoiding the latter outcome “will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” he said.

Economic data so far has shown limited impact from tariffs. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have pointed to that dynamic, among other factors, in arguing the Fed could cut as soon as its next meeting in July.

Meanwhile, Powell described the overall economy and labor market as solid. He said inflation had eased significantly from highs reached in mid-2022, but was somewhat elevated above the Fed’s 2% objective. He added that beyond the next year or so, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with the Fed’s inflation goal.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Warren Takunda

Middle East Situation

Stocks

London stocks were still in the black by midday on Tuesday despite claims by Israel that Iran has already breached their ceasefire.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.3% at 8,783.39. The index was underperforming its European peers, however, mainly due to sharp declines for heavily-weighted stocks such as BP and Shell.

The mood remained relatively upbeat despite Israel accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire between the two announced just hours earlier. According to reports, Iran launched missiles at Israel early on Tuesday. Tehran has denied the reports.

Danske Bank: "As Israel has already accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, we are not yet fully convinced that the danger is over.

"Israeli PM Netanyahu (but also Trump) has hinted that he wants to topple the Islamic regime, and if that is the case, their job is not yet finished."

On home turf, the latest Industrial Trends survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed that manufacturing output weakened in the three months to June.

The CBI’s balance for manufacturing new orders fell to -33 from -30 in May.

Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, said the sector is under significant pressure, contending with high energy costs, rising labour costs, pervasive skills shortages, and a volatile global economic environment.

"With departmental budgets now set following the Spending Review, businesses are looking to the government to dismantle barriers to growth ahead of the Autumn Budget," he said.

"Welcome progress has been made with the recent infrastructure and industrial strategies setting a clear long-term economic vision for the UK. This is complemented by a US-UK trade deal expected to mitigate tariff uncertainty, especially for automotive and aerospace, and British Steel's agreement to provide 337,000 tonnes of rail track for Network Rail.

"With long-term strategies presented, the government must now continue to back up its ambitions with short-term delivery. This includes rolling out welcome energy cost interventions as soon as possible; delivering on Growth and Skills Levy flexibility; and pushing technology adoption to boost productivity.

"Businesses are ready to work in partnership to translate long-term ambitions into near-term investments, job creation and opportunities."

In equity markets, BA and Iberia owner IAG, easyJet and Wizz Air all flew higher as geopolitical tensions eased and as oil prices fell back, having suffered recently amid the prospect of higher fuel costs.

Other travel-related stocks gained, with InterContinental Hotels and cruise operator Carnival also higher.

Recruiter SThree surged as it reported a drop in first-half net fees, citing an "ongoing challenging trading environment", but pointed to a modest improvement through the half and maintained its full-year profit guidance. Hays also gained.

Distribution and services group Bunzl advanced as it said trading in the six months to the end of June had been as expected and that "actions are underway" to improve performance.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "After rocking the boat in April, Bunzl has thrown investors a lifeline with a calm, no-surprises trading update. Just a few months ago, the story was very different, as a series of issues triggered a major sell-off.

"Typically known for its stability, Bunzl’s uneventful update today, while not particularly exciting on the upside, should be received relatively well. Performance is expected to improve over the second half, and fixes are underway to address pricing issues in the key North American markets. With expectations now reset, Bunzl should be able to get back to what it does best: predictable growth."

On the downside, oil giants BP and Shell and defence firm BAE Systems lost ground, along with Harbour Energy and Ithaca Energy.

Telecom Plus fell even as it reported record profits in line with market expectations in the 12 months to 31 March despite a slip in revenues, and pointed to further growth in the year ahead.

Source: Sharecast

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Glendon

Political

A Russian missile attack on Ukraine's southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region on Tuesday killed at least nine people, damaged civilian infrastructure and wounded dozens of train passengers, officials said.

The two-wave strike killed seven in the regional capital of Dnipro, said governor Serhiy Lysak, where the blast wave also shattered train carriage windows and showered passengers with broken glass.

Nearly 70 people including 10 children were injured, he said, adding the numbers could still rise. Two people were also killed in the town of Samar, around 10 kilometres (6 miles) from Dnipro, the state emergencies service said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on Kyiv's Western partners to respond to the attack. NATO leaders are currently in The Hague for an alliance summit, where President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hopes to secure more military support against Russia's full-scale invasionlaunched in 2022.

"It is a matter of credibility for allies to step up pressure on Moscow," Sybiha wrote on X.

He added that schools, kindergartens and a hospital were also damaged in Dnipro. Officials did not provide details of damage in Samar.

Russia has stepped up air strikes on Ukraine in recent weeks, particularly its capital Kyiv, where 28 people were killed on June 17 in the deadliest such attack this year.

Another 10 people were killed in air attacks on Kyiv and the surrounding region on Monday.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Tariffs Reverberate Across the Packaging Supply Chain

President Donald Trump’s recent decision to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% is reshaping how U.S. companies package products, from canned tomatoes to energy drinks. While the policy targets cheap foreign imports, especially from China, its unintended consequence is hitting domestic producers and supply chains that rely heavily on specialty metals to contain food and beverages.

Pacific Coast Producers, a major U.S. supplier of canned goods to retail giants like Kroger and institutional buyers like hospitals, expects a 6% rise in steel costs and a total tariff burden of $8–10 million this year. That number could climb to $40 million by 2026, with a 24% increase in delivered can prices by the next harvest season. For Pacific Coast and others, rising packaging costs may erode margins or be passed on to consumers.

Shift to Alternative Packaging Gains Momentum

With the cost of traditional cans surging, manufacturers are exploring alternatives. Aseptic cartons, such as those produced by Tetra Pak and SIG Group, and foil pouches are emerging as potential substitutes, particularly for tomato-based products and foodservice applications. Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey previously suggested that aluminum tariffs could accelerate a pivot toward plastic bottles, while SIG Group CEO Samuel Sigrist said the trade war has intensified industry interest in removing aluminum from beverage packaging.

Campbell Co., which built a brand identity around its iconic steel soup cans, is working to contain cost increases but remains committed to traditional packaging. Still, the growing pressure is prompting industry-wide reviews of packaging strategy.

Glass and Plastic Present Viable but Imperfect Alternatives

Glass bottle makers see the tariffs as an opportunity to regain market share, especially in beer, where aluminum dominates. But logistical constraints—primarily higher shipping weight and breakage risks—limit glass’s scalability. Moreover, aluminum’s dominance is entrenched in fast-growing sectors like energy drinks, pre-mixed cocktails, and still water, which favor lightweight, durable containers.

Approximately 64% of beer sold in the U.S. in 2023 came in aluminum cans. Companies such as Anheuser-Busch InBev have dismissed the financial impact of tariffs, citing high domestic sourcing and a recycling rate of about 71% for aluminum cans. These attributes help buffer large players from cost volatility, though smaller producers may be more exposed.

Barriers to Rapid Transition

Despite cost incentives, a full-scale shift to new materials is unlikely in the near term. Most packaging lines are tailored to specific container types, and transitioning requires significant capital investment. For instance, companies that have phased out glass bottling in favor of canning would need to rebuild capacity from scratch.

Even for global giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, adaptation is complex. Coca-Cola relies on plastic for nearly 50% of its global packaging, while only 26% of its packaging uses metal. PepsiCo’s aluminum use is even lower, at just 8%. Both companies have diversified packaging portfolios, which may ease adjustments if tariffs persist.

Still, manufacturers remain cautious. As Scott DeFife of the U.S. Glass Packaging Institute noted, firms are hesitant to commit to major changes amid uncertainty about how long tariffs will last. Temporary trade actions may not justify long-term investments, especially in capital-intensive packaging infrastructure.

Trump’s tariff escalation is driving significant cost pressure for U.S. firms that depend on aluminum and steel for packaging. While alternative materials are gaining attention, structural and logistical constraints limit the speed of any industry-wide pivot. For now, many companies are weighing temporary cost absorption against long-term strategic shifts—waiting to see whether this trade disruption becomes a permanent fixture or a passing policy storm.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Trump Media's Bitcoin Reserves Unchanged Post $400M Buyback

Trump Media, led by Donald Trump, announced a $400 million stock buyback on June 23, 2025. Despite this, their Bitcoin treasury strategy remains unchanged, focusing on a $2.32 billion allocation. The initiative is backed by the SEC, chaired by Trump appointee Paul Atkins, and seeks to boost Trump's crypto integration efforts, marking significant financial undertakings.

Trump Media will use the approximately $2.32 billion in net proceeds from the Offering to create a Bitcoin treasury and for other general corporate purposes and working capital. — Devin Nunes, CEO, Trump Media

$2.3 Billion Strategy to Impact Bitcoin Market

This move further establishes Trump Media in the crypto sector, expected to impact both Bitcoin's market dynamics and institutional interest. The $2.3 billion strategy could reshape public company holdings. Financially, Trump's efforts signal a broader governmental interest in the crypto industry, promising potential regulatory changes and market growth within the United States.

Trump Media's Approach Mirrors MicroStrategy's Success

Similar strategies, notably MicroStrategy's Bitcoin investments, have reshaped company portfolios and influenced market perceptions. Trump Media's approach is aligned with these influential precedents.

Given historical patterns, Trump's Bitcoin plan may set a precedent for future institutional cryptocurrency strategies in U.S. firms, potentially leading to increased regulatory engagement and market adaptation.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Michelle

Political

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that both Israel and Iran have violated a ceasefire agreement he helped broker.

Speaking to reporters before departing for a NATO summit in The Hague, Trump added that he was not pleased with either country, but particularly Israel. He said Israel had "unloaded" a strike shortly after agreeing to a halt in the hostilities.

Trump also suggested that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been eradicated.

His comments come after the Israeli military warned that it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel and was ready to retaliate, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire to several days of deadly air attacks between the two regional rivals.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he had told the country’s military to respond "forcefully" to the Iranian missiles, saying Tehran had carried out a "violation" of the agreed ceasefire. Katz said Israel’s response would include "high-intensity strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran."

Citing state TV, media outlets in Iran have reported that claims of an attack on Israel after the ceasefire took effect are "denied."

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump declared that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was now "in effect," adding that neither side should violate it. The statement has lifted expectations that the 12-day bout of fighting between Israel and Iran has come to an end.

Trump’s statements had led to speculation that the ceasefire would take place in stages, with operations already underway being allowed to finish. An Iranian missile attack on Israel on Tuesday killed four people, according to Reuters, citing Israel’s ambulance service. Meanwhile, Tehran said an Israeli strike on northern Iran had killed nine people.

Israel, who was joined by the U.S. in its bid to erase what it has described as Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions, said it had agreed to a halt in the violence, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noting that the operation had achieved its objectives. Iran has maintained that its nuclear plans are peaceful.

Still, questions surrounded the longevity of the ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said Tehran had no intention of continuing its retaliatory strikes moving forward, but stood ready to respond to any further aggression from Israel -- a sentiment that Netanyahu reciprocated.

Oil prices slumped in the wake of the agreement, although some of the losses have been trimmed by renewed concerns over its staying power.

Crude had fallen sharply on Monday after Tehran responded to a weekend attack by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites with strikes on an American military base in Qatar. Traders largely interpreted the attack on the base in Doha, which caused no casualties, as symbolic and a precursor to cooling tensions.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

A Phased Approach to Stablecoin Integration

Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Bank of Korea (BOK) Senior Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai emphasized that the issuance of won-denominated stablecoins should begin with heavily regulated commercial banks before potentially expanding to non-bank financial institutions. The central bank’s cautious stance reflects both regulatory prudence and the complexity of integrating stablecoins into South Korea’s financial system.

Stablecoins—digital assets pegged to stable fiat currencies—are gaining traction globally for their efficiency in cross-border payments and digital finance applications. However, Ryoo warned that their deployment must be closely managed to avoid undermining monetary control and financial market stability.

Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Considerations

Ryoo reiterated earlier concerns voiced by Governor Rhee Chang-yong that stablecoins could disrupt capital flows and settlement systems. He stressed the importance of a comprehensive regulatory safety net to shield the financial system from disorder and ensure user protection.

These remarks come as South Korea’s economic conditions remain fragile. The central bank is currently navigating an easing cycle, with its latest rate cut placing the policy rate near the midpoint of the neutral range. Ryoo also acknowledged that rising housing prices and household debt have become more prominent factors in the central bank’s policy calculus.

Political Support and Legislative Momentum

The push to integrate stablecoins aligns with President Lee Jae Myung’s campaign promise to modernize South Korea’s digital economy. The administration’s Democratic Party is currently working to establish a legal framework that would authorize the issuance of won-backed stablecoins by private companies. The effort is part of a broader strategy to maintain South Korea’s competitiveness in financial innovation.

In parallel with stablecoin discussions, the BOK is preparing for the second phase of its central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot. The first pilot, conducted in collaboration with the Bank for International Settlements, will conclude next week. The upcoming phase will include deeper engagement with commercial banks and will likely be shaped by the policy priorities of the newly inaugurated government.

Ryoo also stated that the central bank is accelerating reforms in the foreign exchange market. These efforts include expanded trading hours and foreign investor access, reflecting South Korea’s broader move toward capital market liberalization and digital transformation.

The Bank of Korea’s preference for a cautious, bank-led introduction of stablecoins underscores its intent to balance innovation with financial prudence. As both private and public digital currency initiatives advance, the central bank’s emphasis on regulatory rigor and market safeguards reflects a strategic effort to modernize South Korea’s financial infrastructure without compromising systemic stability. The coming months will test the BOK’s ability to align digital currency reform with broader economic and political priorities.