Pound Drops After Bank of England Says It Could Cut Interest Rates More If Jobs Market Slows

There’s a rising drumbeat of complaints about China’s mighty export machine, with the US and others complaining that the flood of cheap Chinese exports is undercutting their own industries, and in some cases imposing tariffs to try to stem the tide.

And yet, the Chinese export machine continues on, with the value of shipments in the first six months this year above $1.8 trillion. The first half of the year is historically a slower period for exports, which tend to rise in the third and fourth quarters ahead of the holiday seasons, so to hit that level so quickly is unprecedented.

The export strength is a boost for an economy mired in deflation and a yearslong housing crisis that’s slashed demand and people’s wealth and willingness to spend. That can be seen in the continued weakness of imports, which fell almost 4% in the first half year, after dropping in 2023 and barely rising last year. That pushed the trade surplus over half a trillion dollars in the first half — a record.

The trade windfall is pushing up economic growth. Second quarter GDP data will be released on Tuesday and is likely to show an economy cruising along around the government’s targeted pace for the year of around 5%. A back of the envelope calculation indicates the surplus was equivalent to more than 6% of gross domestic product in the first half, more than double the level before the pandemic.

Even with the US trying to substantially reduce its trade gap with China, the data shows how difficult any decoupling will be. Trade with the US rebounded in June, with exports to America jumping almost $10 billion compared to May.

That surge comes after the two sides agreed in May to lower tariffs from the eye-watering levels in April, but the levies are still much higher than they have been for decades and are above 50% for many goods. Despite that, US companies were still willing buy almost $40 billion worth of stuff from China last month.

Whether this outperformance continues for the rest of the year rests on many things — Will the US truce hold? Will global demand remain strong? Will other nations start to follow the US and impose tariffs on the tsunami of Chinese goods?

But at least so far, there’s little sign Trump’s efforts to tackle China’s manufacturing dominance are having much effect.

After months of seeing very little inflation, US consumers probably experienced slightly faster price growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.

Prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in June, the most in five months, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. In May, the so-called core consumer price index edged up 0.1%.

Elsewhere, aside from the G-20 meeting in South Africa, consumer-price data from Japan and the UK, and key speeches by British policymakers will be among the highlights.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Two more tariffs

Big banks on deck

‘Crypto Week’

Talent wars

It’s a bird, it’s a plane...

Source :cnbc

Source: Euronews

Iran and the US haven’t agreed on a time, date or place to resume stalled negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday.

Iran won’t return to talks “unless we’re certain the negotiations will be effective,” Esmaeil Baghaei said in a televised press conference.

His remarks follow a report from Iran’s Fars News Agency over the weekend that President Masoud Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries in an Israeli strike on June 16, three days into the surprise campaign that scuttled five rounds of talks between Tehran and Washington.

The attack targeted the entrances and exits of a building in western Tehran where the president was meeting with the heads of the judiciary and parliament, Fars said, adding that authorities are investigating whether the operation involved an intelligence breach.

Over the weekend, Iran’s Foreign Minister and lead negotiator Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic Republic is seeking guarantees against future attacks if talks resume, adding that the country has received “some assurances.”

Baghaei also said Monday that plans for talks with the UK, France and Germany were “under review.” The three countries — signatories to the original nuclear deal abandoned by US President Donald Trump in 2018 — had been engaged in parallel discussions with Iran ahead of Israel’s military strikes last month.

Baghaei added that Russia and China have expressed readiness to play a role in resolving Iran’s nuclear dispute, though he offered no further details. He also said assessments are ongoing to determine the extent of damage to the country’s Fordow nuclear facility, which was struck by the US. Iranian officials had previously described the site as “badly damaged.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

As if the Big Beautiful Bill's spending increases, the bombing of Iran, mixed signals on immigration and the suppression of the Epstein files weren't enough to infuriate Trump voters, now comes news that President Trump is going to announce what a top DC warmonger calls an "aggressive" transfer of offensive weapons to Ukraine. Under the novel arrangement, European countries are supposedly going to foot the bill.

Last week, the administration announced that weapons shipments that had just been halted by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over concerns about the depletion of America's own arsenal were being given a hasty green light after all. Trump broke the news on Monday after last week's "disappointing" phone call with President Putin, telling reporters he would send “more weapons” to Ukraine. Critically, Trump had emphasized that these would be "defensive weapons primarily."

Now, two sources tell Axios that it's likely a new weapons package will include long-range missiles capable of attacking deep inside Russia to include Moscow. They noted that a final decision hadn't been made. "Trump is really pissed at Putin. His announcement tomorrow is going to be very aggressive," warmongering South Carolina Sen. Lindsey told Axios.

While MAGA nation and libertarian-minded Trump voters will be disgusted, it's like a second Christmas in a month for Graham. First delighted by Trump's decision to engage the US military in Israel's war on Iran, long-time Ukraine-meddler Graham is now enthusing over Trump's new escalation. "The game...is about to change," said Graham in a Sunday appearance on Face the Nation. "I expect in the coming days you will see weapons flowing at a record level...[and] there will be tariffs and sanction available to President Trump he's never had before."

The transaction is expected to be announced Monday when Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. This time around, European countries are expected to pay for American weapons bound for Ukraine. "Basically, we are going to send them various pieces of very sophisticated military [equipment]. They're going to pay us 100% for them," Trump told reporters on Sunday. "As we send equipment, they're going to reimburse us."

The new arrangement sprang from a suggestion made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a NATO summit in late June. Striking an exceedingly Trump-like tone, an unnamed US official told Axios, "Zelensky came like a normal human being, not crazy, and was dressed like a somebody that should be at NATO. He had a group of people with him that also seemed not crazy. So they had a good conversation."

Trump was reportedly angered by his July 3 phone call with Putin, in which the Russian president made clear his intention to escalate the war. Sure enough, that very night Russia launched an apparently record-setting overnight drone attack on Ukraine - said to be among the largest since the war began.

According to the new report, Western and Ukrainian officials are hoping an infusion of weapons will alter Putin's calculus about his war aims and terms for a ceasefire if not an end to it.

Russia had been gradually but relentlessly taking over more territory (via Institute for the Study of War)

During his 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly vowed to bring a quick end to the war, variously claiming that he would get it "settled before I even become president" or, at worst, "within 24 hours" of doing so. Now, nearly 6 months into his term, Trump is about to pour more weapons into the 3 1/2-year old war.

In doing so, Trump gives us yet another illustration of Tom Woods' Law #3: "No matter whom you vote for, you always wind up getting John McCain."

Source: Zero Hedge