Path to Agreement: U.S. Treasury Secretary Sees Hope in China Trade Talks Despite Strategic Uncertainty

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about a potential trade deal with China, despite conflicting signals, but warns that a full agreement could still take months to finalize....

Cautious Optimism Emerges Amid Mixed Signals

Following meetings with Chinese officials in Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed a guarded but positive outlook regarding a potential breakthrough in trade negotiations. He affirmed that “there is a path” to a deal, even though the two governments have publicly sent conflicting messages about the state of talks.

President Trump’s earlier statements suggested that tariff negotiations were underway, but China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly denied any active discussions, accusing the U.S. of creating confusion. Bessent acknowledged this discrepancy but attributed Beijing’s public denial mainly to domestic political messaging. This situation illustrates a correlation rather than direct causality: public posturing on both sides shapes perceptions but does not necessarily reflect the true progress of backchannel negotiations.

Strategic Uncertainty as a Negotiation Tool

Bessent praised President Trump’s use of "strategic uncertainty" in negotiations, referencing game theory principles where withholding one’s limits enhances bargaining leverage. According to Bessent, Trump’s reluctance to set clear boundaries creates greater pressure on Beijing to make concessions without knowing the U.S.’s exact end goals.

This approach exemplifies a deliberate cause-and-effect strategy: by maintaining ambiguity, the Trump administration seeks to extract better terms. However, it also introduces market volatility and complicates diplomatic communication, raising risks if misinterpretations escalate.

Short-Term De-escalation, Long-Term Challenges

Bessent outlined that the immediate goal is to de-escalate tensions through a framework agreement covering 17 to 18 critical trade issues. Nevertheless, he cautioned that reaching a full, enforceable trade agreement could take several months, acknowledging that both political and technical hurdles remain substantial.

Parallel negotiations with other Asian partners are also being accelerated, reflecting a broader U.S. strategy to diversify trade dependencies. This indicates a defensive reaction to potential prolonged standoffs with China, reinforcing the interconnectedness between U.S. multi-track trade diplomacy and the durability of any future U.S.-China deal.

Domestic Pressures Add Complexity

Compounding the urgency, major U.S. retailers have warned the administration that sustained high tariffs could lead to significant price increases and supply chain disruptions within weeks. Meanwhile, President Trump defended the tariffs, claiming they would ultimately lower income taxes for Americans earning under $200,000 per year and stimulate job creation through new domestic manufacturing projects.

On the agricultural front, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that daily negotiations are ongoing with China and other countries, while also indicating that financial aid packages are ready to support farmers if export markets, particularly for soybeans and pork, remain constrained.

Here, the interplay between economic policy and electoral considerations is clear: tariffs are positioned as a tool for political and economic gains, but rising domestic costs threaten to undercut public support, presenting a complex causal web influencing the pace and tone of negotiations.

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s optimism highlights a possible route to easing U.S.-China trade tensions, the broader environment remains volatile. Strategic uncertainty is both a negotiation tactic and a risk factor, with conflicting political narratives and economic pressures shaping a highly fluid situation. A full trade agreement remains a distant target, and in the interim, both diplomatic maneuvering and domestic economic management will be critical in determining whether current optimism can translate into tangible outcomes.

Source: The Guardian

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Aggressive Profit Targets Amid Mixed Economic Signals

In the wake of recent shareholder meetings and published business plans, many Vietnamese banks are setting ambitious profit targets for 2025. Small and medium-sized banks, in particular, are forecasting double- or even triple-digit growth compared to 2024, fueled by optimism about credit demand and economic recovery. Saigonbank, for instance, expects to triple its pre-tax profit to 300 billion VND, while ABBank is aiming for a staggering 131% increase to 1,800 billion VND—the highest target growth rate among its peers.

Larger banks are more cautious but still optimistic. Vietcombank projects a modest 5% profit growth, aiming for over 44,000 billion VND, while BIDV expects a 6-10% increase. Techcombank, MB, and others similarly propose conservative but positive targets, reflecting a balanced approach given macroeconomic uncertainties. This pattern shows a clear trend where bank size correlates inversely with aggressiveness in target setting: smaller banks seek aggressive expansion, while larger institutions prioritize stability and risk management.

Credit Growth as the Main Profit Driver

Analysts widely agree that credit growth will be the primary catalyst for banking sector profitability in 2025. With interest rates expected to remain relatively stable and loan rate caps likely maintained to support the economy, net interest margins (NIM) are not expected to expand significantly. Thus, volume growth in lending will be critical for revenue expansion.

Reports from institutions like VPBank Securities (VPBankS) and SSI suggest a sector-wide pre-tax profit growth of 15-17% for the year, underpinned by improvements in loan demand, a recovering retail sector, public investment disbursement, and a stabilizing real estate market. In this causal relationship, credit growth clearly leads to higher bank profits, though the strength of the effect will depend on maintaining asset quality.

Improving Asset Quality and Non-Interest Income Support

Asset quality is also expected to improve moderately, with several banks benefiting from debt restructuring policies and a rebound in economic activity. Institutions with strong consumer lending portfolios and better credit risk management practices are forecast to outperform industry averages.

Non-interest income, particularly from services such as bancassurance and digital banking, is predicted to regain momentum, contributing about 22% of total revenue in 2025. This diversification reduces reliance on traditional lending margins and offers a buffer against any unexpected shocks in credit performance.

This scenario indicates a correlation where diversified income streams and better asset quality enhance profit resilience, but full causality can only be established if credit losses remain controlled over a sustained period.

Potential Risks and Challenges Remain

Despite an optimistic outlook, significant challenges persist. According to Trần Minh Hoàng of VCBS, the low average loan loss coverage ratio (LLCR) across the banking sector and the lingering risks from restructured debts could force banks to increase provisioning in 2025. This would exert downward pressure on net profits, particularly for banks with high exposure to troubled loans and weaker reserve buffers.

Meanwhile, Professor Nguyễn Hữu Huân from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City highlighted that although non-interest income is improving, the banking sector’s overall net interest margin is unlikely to widen significantly. Therefore, sustainable profit growth will hinge more heavily on maintaining strong loan volume expansion and operational efficiency rather than margin expansion alone.

In this context, while credit expansion acts as a profit driver, asset quality deterioration or external economic shocks could weaken this relationship, introducing volatility into the banks' projected earnings growth.

Competitive Advantages and Strategic Positioning

Banks with strong retail loan portfolios, robust current account savings account (CASA) ratios, and flexible capital mobilization strategies are expected to achieve better cost optimization, which would support profitability. Those with effective risk management frameworks and solid provisioning buffers are positioned to weather potential downturns more effectively and could seize greater market share amid sector consolidation pressures.

Vietcap Securities projects that Sacombank, VCB, ACB, TPBank, and Techcombank will be among the best-performing banks in 2025, with profit growth forecasts ranging from 21% to 48%, depending on each institution’s competitive strengths in corporate lending and funding capabilities.

Vietnam’s banking sector is poised for a strong year in 2025, with most institutions setting ambitious profit targets despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Credit growth will serve as the primary engine of profitability, while improved asset quality and non-interest income diversification offer additional support. However, rising pressure from bad debts and limited room for margin expansion highlight the need for disciplined risk management and strategic cost optimization. Banks that can leverage retail lending, maintain strong CASA ratios, and build resilient asset portfolios are expected to outperform in an increasingly competitive and unpredictable environment.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

China–U.S. Trade War

Proactive Measures to Counter Tariff Headwinds

Amid escalating trade tensions, Chinese officials confidently stated at a press conference on April 28 that the government possesses ample policy tools to protect jobs and stabilize economic growth. They outlined measures including credit easing, increased support for businesses and workers, and domestic stimulus programs to mitigate the combined 145% tariff burden imposed by the United States.

Following a key Politburo meeting last week, these announcements signal a heightened state of alert within Beijing. Louise Loo from Oxford Economics pointed out that while the rhetoric is familiar, the renewed emphasis highlights China's cautious yet assertive stance. This situation reveals a causal dynamic where external tariff pressures are directly prompting internal economic policy adjustments aimed at preserving stability.

Ongoing Tensions and Breakdown in Negotiations

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s optimistic tone about negotiations with China, no active talks have been confirmed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent verified that discussions have not formally commenced, and China has denied any ongoing dialogue. Instead, Beijing retaliated by imposing 125% tariffs on American goods, intensifying the standoff.

The lack of negotiation progress demonstrates a strong correlation between diplomatic deadlock and economic policy defensiveness on both sides. In China's case, this deadlock has fueled a focus on self-sufficiency and internal demand as primary economic levers.

Defiant Rhetoric and Defensive Strategies

Vice Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Zhao Chentan, sharply criticized U.S. tariff actions as "bullying" and violations of international trade norms. He framed Washington’s strategy as harmful not just to China but to the broader global economy, suggesting that these tariffs could contribute to a U.S. recession while worsening global economic risks.

While China faces significant challenges—highlighted by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downgrade of its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4%—Chinese officials remain committed to achieving approximately 5% growth, matching the 2024 level. This resilience underscores the government's determination to decouple short-term external shocks from long-term domestic goals, although whether the stimulus measures fully offset external pressures remains to be seen.

Policy Initiatives to Sustain Growth

The government announced several initiatives to reinforce economic momentum. First, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is prepared to adjust interest rates and the required reserve ratio (RRR) to facilitate credit flow if necessary. Second, a major domestic stimulus program targeting the upgrade of outdated vehicles and equipment is projected to inject more than 5,000 billion yuan (approximately $34.8 billion) annually into the economy.

Additionally, the government emphasized that reduced imports of U.S. energy and agricultural products would not disrupt domestic supply, citing diversified sourcing strategies. In the longer term, accelerating urbanization remains a central pillar of China's growth plan. Officials estimate that every 1% increase in urbanization could trigger trillions of yuan in new investment, creating sustained growth momentum.

These initiatives reflect a strong causal linkage between internal policy adjustments and external trade challenges: as export-driven growth weakens, domestic investment and consumption are intended to take the lead in driving economic expansion.

Structural Risks and Uncertainties Remain

While Beijing’s policy arsenal is substantial, structural vulnerabilities persist. Slowing export growth, demographic shifts, and private sector weakness could hinder the effectiveness of stimulus measures. Moreover, prolonged trade tensions could compound downward pressures on China's manufacturing base and global competitiveness.

Thus, although China’s economic resilience appears strategically sound in the short term, the ultimate success of these measures will depend on their ability to offset both cyclical downturns and structural headwinds, a relationship that remains dynamic and highly sensitive to both domestic execution and external shocks.

Faced with intensifying U.S. tariff pressures, China has rolled out a series of proactive measures aimed at maintaining economic growth and social stability. By strengthening domestic credit channels, encouraging internal consumption, and accelerating urbanization, Beijing seeks to shield its economy from external turbulence. While confidence remains high among Chinese officials, the longer-term balance between policy effectiveness and emerging structural risks will determine whether China can sustain its targeted 5% growth in 2025 amid a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Catherine Richards

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Negotiations held in Cairo to reach a ceasefire in Gaza were on the verge of a "significant breakthrough," two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday.

There was no immediate comment from Israel and Hamas. Axios reporter Barak Ravid said in a brief post on X that an Israeli official denied the reported breakthrough, without giving further details.

The Egyptian sources said there was a consensus on a long-term ceasefire in the besieged enclave, yet some sticking points remain, including Hamas arms.

Hamas repeatedly said it was not willing to lay down its arms, a key demand by Israel.

Earlier, Egyptian state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV reported that Egyptian intelligence chief General Hassan Mahmoud Rashad was set to meet an Israeli delegation headed by strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer on Monday in Cairo.

The sources said the ongoing talks included Egyptian and Israeli delegations.

Mediators Egypt and Qatar did not report developments on the latest talks. Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Sunday that a recent meeting in Doha on efforts to reach a ceasefire made some progress, but noted there was no agreement yet on how to end the war. He said the militant group is willing to return all remaining Israeli hostages if Israel ends the war in Gaza. But Israel wants Hamas to release the remaining hostages without offering a clear vision on ending the war, he added. The media adviser for the Hamas leadership, Taher Al-Nono, told Reuters on Saturday that the group was open to a years-long truce with Israel in Gaza, adding that the group hoped to build support among mediators for its offer.

Speaking at a conference in Jerusalem on Monday night, before Reuters reported that there had been progress in the talks, Dermer said the government remained committed to dismantling Hamas' military capability, ending its rule in Gaza, ensuring that the enclave never again poses a threat to Israel and returning the hostages.

Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a January ceasefire collapsed, saying it would keep up pressure on Hamas until it frees the remaining hostages still held in the enclave. Up to 24 of them are believed to be still alive.

The Gaza war started after Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack which killed 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, Israel's offensive on the enclave killed more than 52,000, according to local Palestinian health officials.

Source: ARAB

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Commodity

Gold Prices Fall Amid Improved Trade Sentiment

In early trading on April 28, international gold prices experienced a notable decline, with spot gold falling 1.1% to $3,282.33 per ounce and U.S. gold futures slipping 0.2% to $3,292.80 per ounce. The drop reflects the market’s reaction to signs of easing tensions between the United States and China, a development that traditionally weakens demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that markets were feeling relieved by the cooling trade conflict, alongside reduced anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Both factors diminished the immediate need for defensive investments. This scenario illustrates a causal relationship where political de-escalation directly leads to lower safe-haven demand, resulting in falling gold prices.

Strengthening U.S. Dollar Exerts Additional Pressure

Another critical factor weighing on gold was the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.2% against a basket of major currencies. As the dollar appreciates, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby reducing its international appeal.

The relationship here is strongly inverse: a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices. While the dollar's movement is influenced by broader economic data and monetary policy expectations, its immediate impact on gold demand is clear and direct.

Recent Highs and Shifting Momentum

Just a week earlier, spot gold had reached a high of $3,500.05 per ounce, buoyed by escalating trade tensions and increased demand from central banks and private investors. The rapid decline since then underscores how quickly sentiment can shift in the gold market based on geopolitical developments.

However, while the decline suggests a short-term weakening of gold’s appeal, it does not necessarily sever the broader linkage between geopolitical risks and gold demand. Future flare-ups in political tensions could swiftly reignite safe-haven buying.

Trade Developments and Policy Implications

Despite China's partial tariff exemptions for U.S. goods, Beijing also refuted President Trump’s claims that active negotiations were underway. This mixed signaling creates an environment of uncertainty, where investors must navigate between temporary relief and the possibility of renewed tensions.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions are another crucial variable. Key U.S. economic indicators, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and non-farm payroll data, are due this week. These reports could significantly influence market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts.

If economic data suggest persistent inflation or robust labor markets, it could strengthen the dollar further, placing additional downward pressure on gold. Conversely, signs of economic slowing could revive hopes for rate cuts, thereby boosting gold prices. This outlines a conditional relationship where future data outcomes will critically shape gold’s trajectory.

Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic Despite Pullback

Despite the recent pullback, many investors remain cautiously optimistic about gold’s medium-term prospects. The underlying geopolitical landscape remains unsettled, and economic risks have not fully abated. As such, the potential for renewed safe-haven demand remains intact.

In other precious metals, silver prices slipped 0.5% to $32.93 per ounce, platinum prices edged up 0.6% to $976.75 per ounce, and palladium remained stable at $948.95 per ounce. These moves mirror broader precious metals sector trends, where each metal’s supply-demand fundamentals and industrial usage patterns provide varying degrees of price resilience.

Overall, Gold’s sharp decline reflects an immediate market reaction to easing trade tensions and a stronger dollar. However, with global political and economic uncertainties still looming, the safe-haven asset retains significant recovery potential. Investor attention now turns to upcoming U.S. economic reports and Federal Reserve signals, which will be pivotal in determining whether gold can stabilize or face further pressure in the weeks ahead.

Source: Reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Trump seeks to mitigate auto tariff fallout, may act before Tuesday.

2. U.S. Treasury lifts quarterly borrowing estimate as debt impasse drains cash reserves.

3. Iran proposes meeting with Europe ahead of next U.S. talks.

4. U.S. tariffs backfire on agriculture: Orders canceled, prices plunge, crisis deepens.

5. Rehn: ECB should not rule out a larger interest rate cut.

[News Details]

Trump seeks to mitigate auto tariff fallout, may act before Tuesday

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is expected to take steps to soften the impact of auto tariffs. Measures may include preventing overlapping tariffs on foreign-made cars and easing some tariffs on foreign auto parts used in U.S. manufacturing. This would exempt automakers from paying auto tariffs from additional levies like those on steel and aluminum (as reported by the Financial Times). The administration will also revise the 25% tariff on foreign auto parts (set to take effect May 3), allowing automakers a 3.75% tariff rebate on U.S.-made cars in the first year, dropping to 2.75% in the second year before phasing out. Trump is expected to act before attending a rally in Michigan on Tuesday evening, marking his 100th day in office.

U.S. Treasury lifts quarterly borrowing estimate as debt impasse drains cash reserves

Reported on Monday, the U.S. Treasury lifted its Q2 federal borrowing forecast to 514 billion (up from 123 billion in February) due to lower-than-expected cash balances, as Congress has yet to raise the debt ceiling. The Treasury's March cash balance was 406 billion, far below the earlier 850 billion projection. Constrained by the debt ceiling, the government is unable to increase the scale of treasury bond issuance. It maintained its June cash balance forecast at $850 billion, assuming the debt ceiling will be resolved by then.

Iran proposes meeting with Europe ahead of next U.S. talks

Iran has proposed meeting with European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal (E3: UK, France, Germany) in Rome on Friday before potential U.S.-Iran talks, per diplomats. Omani officials said that a new round of US-Iran talks may be held in Europe on May 3. No formal decision has been made yet.

Iran has extended an olive branch to Britain, France, and Germany (the E3), indicating that Tehran is still keeping its options open while also hoping to assess the European stance regarding the possible reimposition of UN sanctions before October, when the resolution approving the 2015 nuclear deal expires. Two E3 diplomats and one Western diplomat said that Iran put forward a proposal for talks that could take place in Rome on Friday after its meeting with the U.S. last Saturday. The diplomats said that if that is not possible, Iran has also suggested holding discussions in Tehran before this date.

U.S. tariffs backfire on agriculture: Orders canceled, prices plunge, crisis deepens

U.S. media reported on April 28 (local time) that the American agricultural sector has sustained significant losses due to fierce global retaliation against the Trump administration's tariff policies, particularly China's suspension of U.S. agricultural imports. The head of the U.S. Agricultural Transportation Alliance bluntly stated that a "full-blown crisis" has engulfed the industry. Freight data firms revealed that as of April 14, shipping volumes between China and the U.S. plummeted sharply, with a week-over-week decline exceeding 22% and a year-over-year drop of 44%. U.S. agricultural exporters warned that the Chinese market is irreplaceable, and the ongoing decline in bilateral trade has already impacted prices for American farm products. Some commodity prices have fallen by more than 20%.

Rehn: ECB should not rule out a larger interest rate cut

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated in a Monday speech that the recent tightening of financing conditions and emerging risks to economic growth underscore the critical need for policy flexibility. He emphasized that maintaining ample flexibility is essential, and the ECB should not set specific thresholds based on hypothetical neutral rates, nor should they preemptively exclude the possibility of rate cuts of any magnitude. Now is the time for agile and proactive monetary policy.

Theoretically, the ECB will not pre-commit to any specific interest rate path. There is no reason to assume a default 25-basis-point adjustment. However, this view remains theoretical and depends on the medium-term inflation outlook, as well as whether growth prospects deteriorate or improve.

If forecasts by June indicate that inflation will fall below the 2% target over the medium term, the appropriate response would be to cut rates further.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 17:00 Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index

UTC+8 17:40 BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks

UTC+8 21:00 U.S. February FHFA House Price Index (MoM)

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings

UTC+8 22:00 ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks

TBD: Japan-U.S. second round of tariff negotiations

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Public Confidence in Trump’s Economic Policies Declines

A recent national survey conducted by CNN and SSRS from April 17 to April 24 revealed that 59% of Americans believe President Donald Trump’s policies have made the U.S. economy worse. This represents a notable increase from 51% in March and matches the lowest approval level seen during Joe Biden’s presidency. Despite the full effects of Trump's renewed tariff measures not yet materializing, sentiment has already shifted decisively toward pessimism.

The data reflects a correlation where political leadership and perceived economic conditions are intertwined in public opinion. However, given that major tariff impacts are still unfolding, the sharp rise in negative perceptions suggests that psychological and anticipatory factors play a strong role alongside actual economic indicators.

Widespread Concern About Inflation and Recession Risks

The survey also highlights acute public concerns over inflation and economic contraction. Approximately 60% of respondents reported that Trump’s policies have increased their local cost of living, while only 12% felt prices had fallen. Moreover, 69% of those surveyed believe there is at least some likelihood of a recession within the next year, with 32% rating the possibility as “very likely.”

Only 34% of Americans expressed excitement or optimism about the economy, while 29% described their feelings as pessimistic and 37% said they felt fear. These figures paint a grim portrait of national economic morale and suggest a strong correlation between cost pressures and declining consumer sentiment.

Personal testimonies from respondents illustrate the human dimension behind these statistics. For example, a 59-year-old Republican lamented that decades of personal financial achievements were rapidly eroding, while others cited direct impacts from government program cuts.

Persistent Skepticism Toward Tariff Strategies

Public opinion remains notably skeptical about the effectiveness of Trump’s tariff approach. Fifty-five percent view the overall tariff strategy as bad policy, compared to only 28% who support it. When asked specifically about tariffs targeting Chinese goods, negativity remains slightly lower but still predominant, with 53% disapproving.

Importantly, 58% of respondents indicated they do not believe Trump has a clear strategy behind his tariff actions. In the short term, 72% expect tariffs to hurt the U.S. economy, 60% anticipate damage to America’s international standing, and 59% foresee negative impacts on their personal finances. Fewer than 30% see any immediate benefits.

In the long run, opinions are somewhat less dire, but still more negative than positive: 53% expect tariffs to cause lasting harm, while only 34% believe they could eventually benefit the economy. Notably, while nearly half of Republicans admit tariffs might hurt the economy in the short term, about three-quarters believe they will ultimately prove advantageous, suggesting a partisan divergence between immediate and long-term assessments.

Economic Anxiety and Priorities Shift

Only 28% of Americans now describe the economy as “good,” compared to 71% who say it is “bad.” When asked about the most pressing economic issues facing their families, the majority cited high costs: 28% mentioned inflation directly, 16% pointed to food prices, and 15% referred to the broader cost of living.

Emerging worries are also visible: 9% specifically cited tariffs, 7% mentioned stock market or investment instability, and 4% pointed to Trump’s leadership and policies as direct causes for concern. These concerns reflect not just a general unease, but a growing specificity in how individuals link political decisions to their personal economic situations.

One Democratic respondent provided a vivid example: after their spouse lost their job due to Trump administration budget cuts, the family faced soaring living costs and a plummeting retirement portfolio, dramatically altering their financial security.

Workforce Preferences Challenge Policy Narratives

Despite Trump’s argument that tariffs and reshoring efforts would revive U.S. manufacturing, public preference appears to diverge. Seventy-three percent of Americans said they would prefer an office job over a manufacturing job at the same wage, indicating that the administration’s emphasis on industrial revival may not align with the workforce’s evolving career aspirations.

This finding suggests a structural disconnect between the nature of Trump’s economic policies and the labor market preferences of the average American worker, weakening the potential causal link between industrial policy initiatives and broad-based political support.

Public opinion in the United States is increasingly critical of President Trump’s economic leadership, particularly regarding rising living costs and skepticism about the effectiveness of new tariff measures. Fears of recession loom large, and dissatisfaction spans both short- and long-term perspectives, although partisan divisions temper some reactions. As economic uncertainty intensifies, the gap between policy intentions and public sentiment continues to widen, posing significant challenges for the administration’s economic narrative moving forward.