Pakistan suspends visas for Indians after deadly Kashmir attack on tourists

Political

Summary:

Deadly Kashmir attack risks India military escalation against Pakistan.

Pakistan has responded with tit-for-tat measures against India as tensions soared following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists.

Islamabad suspended all visas issued to Indian nationals under an exemption scheme with immediate effect, as well as expelling some of its neighbour's diplomats and closing its airspace to Indian flights.

Indian police have named three of four suspected gunmen behind the attack, saying two are Pakistani citizens and a third is a local Kashmiri man. Pakistan denies Indian claims that it played a role in the shooting.

Tuesday's attack saw a group of gunmen fire on tourists near Pahalgam, a resort in the disputed Himalayan region.

Police in Indian-administered Kashmir say all three suspects named are members of the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). None of the men have commented on the allegations.

A statement from Pakistan's National Security Committee rubbished attempts to link the Pahalgam attack to Pakistan, saying there had been no credible investigation or verifiable evidence.

Earlier Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed that "India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the Earth."

He said that the "terrorists behind the killings, along with their backers, will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine".

"Our enemies have dared to attack the country's soul... India's spirit will never be broken by terrorism."

On Wednesday evening Delhi announced a raft of diplomatic measures against Islamabad in light of the killings in Kashmir - one of them was shutting the Attari-Wagah border between the two countries immediately.

India also cancelled visa services to Pakistani nationals "with immediate effect".

In its response, Pakistan also rejected India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty - a six-decade-old water sharing treaty between the neighbours - adding that any attempt to stop or divert the water "will be considered as an Act of War".

The country has closed its airspace to all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines and suspended all trade with India.

It has also reduced the number of diplomats in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad to 30 and asked Indian defence, naval and air advisers to leave Pakistan before 30 April.

About 1,500 people across Kashmir have been detained for questioning in connection with the attack, police sources have told BBC News.

Schools, business and shops are reopening after a shutdown across the region following the shootings.

Police have offered a reward of 2m rupees [$23,000; £17,600] for anyone offering information about any of the attackers.

Visitors from different states in India were killed, with others seriously injured, in one of the deadliest attacks in recent years in the region.

An Indian naval officer on honeymoon, a tourist guide who was the sole breadwinner for his family, and a businessman holidaying with his wife and children were among the victims.

An all-party meeting in Jammu and Kashmir expressed deep shock and anguish at what it called a "barbaric attack".

The bodies of victims arriving in their home states around India are being given emotional farewells by their families and loved ones.

Meanwhile, reports are coming in from parts of India of Kashmiri students facing harassment in the aftermath of the killings.

A spokesperson for Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's National Conference party said several videos showing students being harassed in colleges and other places were being circulated online.

Nasir Khuehami, head of the Jammu and Kashmir Students' Association, shared a video of a right-wing Hindu group threatening to physically assault Kashmiri Muslim students in the northern state of Uttarakhand to ensure they leave.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify any of these clips.

Source:BBC

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Patricia Franklin

Economic

While Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has insisted on a wait-and-see approach to additional interest rate cuts amid President Trump’s tariffs, a couple of other Fed heads were out on Thursday discussing a willingness for potential cuts.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said in a CNBC interview Thursday that a cut as soon as June could be possible.

“If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time,” Hammack said Thursday.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a Bloomberg interview that he would support rate cuts if tariffs start weighing on the job market.

“It wouldn’t surprise me that you might start seeing more layoffs, a tick up in the unemployment rate going forward if the big tariffs in particular come back on,” Waller said. “If I see a significant drop in the labor market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in.”

The comments on rate cuts come somewhat counter to Powell’s remarks in Chicago last week that the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” The Fed chairman has expressed concerns that the tariffs will create at least a temporary rise in inflation, which could become more persistent.

Powell’s comment angered Trump, who lashed out at him last Thursday, calling for his termination. Trump has since walked back those comments after markets became uneasy with the rhetoric. Earlier this week, Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Powell.

Today’s comments from Hammack and Waller are lifting risk assets, like stocks.

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Australian Dollar was softer against the Pound and other major currencies after Chinese authorities told the U.S. to abandon its trade tariffs, suggesting the trade war was set to rumble on.

"The U.S. should respond to rational voices in the international community and within its own borders and thoroughly remove all unilateral tariffs imposed on China, if it really wants to solve the problem," He Yadong, the Ministry of Commerce's spokesman, said at a regular briefing on Thursday in Beijing.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate recovered to 2.0849 on Thursday following news of the Chinese stance, which also prompted a renewed weakness in global equity markets.

Price action confirms the Australian Dollar as being highly sensitive to Chinese economic developments and global equity markets.

Yadong also dismissed the prospect of any imminent progress towards fully-fledged trade negotiations with the U.S.:

"Any reports on development in talks are groundless". He called on the U.S. to "show sincerity" if it wants to make a deal.

Stocks and the Australian Dollar rose through the midweek trading session following signs that U.S. President Donald Trump was mellowing his stance towards China. Australian Dollar Set to Resume Lower_1

Above: GBPAUD at daily intervals with achievable upside levels.

Trump said on Tuesday he planned to be "very nice" to China in trade talks and that tariffs could drop in both countries if they could reach a deal, adding: "It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero."

Axios reported on Wednesday that Trump appears to have been spooked into shifting stance by the CEOs of three of the nation's biggest retailers — Walmart, Target and Home Depot.

In a meeting, they privately warned Trump that his tariff and trade policy could disrupt supply chains, raise prices and empty shelves.

"The big-box CEOs flat out told him [Trump] the prices aren't going up, they're steady right now, but they will go up," an administration official familiar with the meeting told Axios. "And this wasn't about food. But he was told that shelves will be empty."

"The unvarnished scare seemed to work," officials told the news organisation. "For the first time, Trump seems more persuadable that his initial plan was too dangerous and disruptive. This slight shift helps explain why he vowed not to fire Fed chair Jay Powell, and publicly said tariffs on China will come down."

The Australian Dollar has fallen 3.0% against the Pound in 2025 as investors see Australian financial assets as being more exposed to the negatives of a U.S.-China trade war.

For the currency to reverse losses, it would likely require a clear end to the trade war, but with China unwilling to roll over, such an outcome still looks some way off.

For GBP/AUD, the mood music suggests a move to 2.0968, the Tuesday high, is imminently achievable, ahead of a test of 2.1192.

However, should Trump maintain a newfound caution based on what the bosses of the U.S. supermarkets warned, the outlines of a more protracted decline will start to appear.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock futures dropped on Thursday as a short-lived rally faded. Investors weighed the unpredictable trade moves by the Trump administration and mixed corporate earnings reports.

Stocks are having a hard time building on Wednesday's rally, which was driven by hints that President Trump may be softening his tough stance on trade and the Federal Reserve. Investors are struggling to keep up with the administration's announcements and Trump's changing positions on tariffs.

While a deal with China remains a possibility, markets still see this as some way off for now with neither side willing to look weak ahead of a potential negotiation. Chinese authorities this morning said that If the US really wants to resolve the issue, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China.

Further developments on this front in the US session could either hurt or help sentiment and will be worth monitoring.

On the earnings front, IBM shares dropped 8% in U.S. premarket trading after disappointing results missed high expectations. In Europe, traders navigated a wave of earnings, with Unilever rising on better-than-expected sales, while BNP Paribas fell due to a profit decline.

Procter & Gamble lowered its yearly sales and profit forecasts on Thursday after reporting a larger-than-expected drop in third-quarter sales. This happened as consumers cut back on spending due to economic uncertainty and the ongoing trade war.

Investors are keeping an eye on trade updates and a packed schedule of results from major companies like Procter & Gamble, Merck, and Alphabet for more market direction.

Something which I found interesting is Deutsche Bank strategists cutting their year-end S&P 500 target by 12%, blaming the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies. The new target of 6,150 points offers a 14% potential increase from Wednesday’s close but only allows the index to recover losses since its peak in February.

Economic data releases

For now focus will shift to earnings but may still be overshadowed by tariff developments.

March data on durable goods, home sales, and weekly jobless claims will be closely watched for insights into the economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also set to speak later today.

Chart of the day - Dow Jones Index (DJIA)

From a technical standpoint, the Dow Jones printed a significant shooting star rejection candle at a key resistance area around the 40000 mark.

The drop continued today to bridge the price gap created on Tuesday with the index’s next move up in the air.

Price action remains mixed while yesterday's pullback means that the RSI also remains bearish and below the neutral 50 mark.

Immediate support rests at 39232 before the 38472 and 38100 handles come into focus.

Immediate resistance rests at 39588 before the key 40000 handle and 40537 handles come into focus.

Dow Jones Daily Chart, April 24, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Economic

Wall Street's main indexes were mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising, as investors assessed a slew of mixed corporate results and monitored developments in U.S.-China trade war.

The White House on Wednesday indicated that it was open to reducing sweeping tariffs on China, and President Donald Trump stepped back from his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, sending stock indexes higher.

But the optimism faded when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a move to reduce levies would not come unilaterally, while China said in response that the U.S. should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China if it "truly" wanted to solve the trade issue.

A deluge of changing headlines and the lack of clarity in the market are making it difficult for investors to assess the impact of Trump's changing stance on trade policy, creating a volatile environment.

"The tariffs are still having a powerful effect on sentiment and the Trump administration is vacillating between backing away from the full implementation and going forward," said Matt Gertken, chief strategist at BCA Research.

"The administration backtracking tells markets that the strategy is to implement tariffs, but not to cause a recession, as long as that's the case, then the trade war will be a sort of a two steps forward, one step back process."

At 09:37 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 160.28 points, or 0.40%, to 39,446.29, the S&P 500 gained 5.59 points, or 0.10%, to 5,381.45 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 68.60 points, or 0.41%, to 16,776.65.

Heavy-weight megacap and growth stocks buoyed the tech-heavy Nasdaq and countered losses on the benchmark S&P 500, with the sector leading gains.

International Business Machines slumped 8.2% after the company said 15 of its government contracts were shelved under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration, while Proctor & Gamble was down 3.7% after cutting annual profit forecasts.

No one in America is more highly qualified to lead the SEC in this exciting time than Paul.

These declines weighed heavily on the blue-chip Dow.

Economic data, however, helped recover some sentiment. Reports showed a moderate rise in weekly jobless claims and a much larger-than-expected jump in March orders for durable goods.

Escalating trade tensions and a worries of an economic slowdown in the U.S., alongside concerns over the threats to the independence of the central bank have caused investors to exit U.S. equities.

All three major indexes are in the red year-to-date and the S&P 500 is down over 12% from its February record high. Deutsche Bank on Thursday slashed its year-end target for the benchmark index to 6,150 from 7,000 previously.

Alaska Airlines fell 10.6% after withdrawing financial forecasts. Southwest Airlines reversed premarket losses to gain 2.4%.

Software firm ServiceNow, on the other hand, leapt 13.2% after beating first-quarter profit estimates.

Alphabet is set to report after the closing bell.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is also scheduled to speak later in the day.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.66-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 11 new highs and 19 new lows.

Source: Reuters

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to move within the development of a bearish correction and a bullish channel. The moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term upward trend for the pair. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines upwards, which indicates pressure from buyers of the European currency and a potential continuation of the growth of the currency pair quotes from the current levels. At the time of publication of the forecast, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate for today is 1.1383. As part of the Forex forecast for April 25, 2025, we should expect an attempt to develop a bearish price correction and a test of the support level, which is located on the EUR/USD pair near the 1.1345 area. Next, an upward price rebound and continued growth of the Euro Dollar currency pair. The potential target of such a movement on FOREX is the area above the 1.1745 level.

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar for April 25, 2025

An additional signal in favor of the development of a bullish scenario on the EUR/USD currency pair tomorrow will be a rebound from the ascending trend line on the RSI indicator. The second signal in favor of this option will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the growth option for the Euro Dollar currency pair tomorrow will be a fall and a breakout of the 1.1145 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall to the area at the level of 1.1065. Confirmation of the rise in the EUR/USD currency pair should be expected with a breakout of the resistance area at the level of 1.1565.

EUR/USD Forecast Euro Dollar for April 25, 2025 suggests an attempt to develop a bearish correction of the pair and a test of the support area near the level of 1.1345. Where should we consider the upward rebound in the price of the Euro Dollar currency pair and an attempt to continue the growth of the asset on the market to the area above the level of 1.1745. An additional signal in favor of the instrument’s rise on the Forex market will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The cancellation of the growth option for the EUR/USD pair will be a drop in quotes and a breakout of the 1.1145 level. This will indicate a breakout of the support area and a continuation of the fall of the currency pair on Forex to the area below the 1.1065 level.

Source: forex24.pro

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Adam

Economic

Jobless Claims Rise Slightly; Durable Goods Boosted by Transport

Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up modestly last week, underscoring a labor market that remains broadly resilient even as pockets of industry-specific layoffs emerge. Meanwhile, durable goods orders posted a strong headline gain, driven almost entirely by transportation, raising questions about the depth of industrial demand.

Initial Claims Tick Higher, But Core Indicators Remain Stable

For the week ending April 19, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The prior week’s level was revised up slightly to 216,000. The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term volatility, declined by 750 to 220,250—suggesting overall stability in labor market conditions. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, while the total number of continuing claims decreased by 37,000 to 1.84 million.

Unadjusted Claims Reflect Regional and Sector Pressures

Unadjusted data showed a more pronounced weekly drop, with claims falling 5.1% to 209,782—less than the 7.6% decline seasonal models had projected. Layoffs were concentrated in manufacturing and construction-heavy states like Kentucky (+4,292), Missouri (+1,974), and Pennsylvania (+1,858), suggesting localized labor softness. Conversely, California, Tennessee, and Oregon saw sharp declines in claims, helping balance the national picture.

Durable Goods Surge Led by Transportation

March’s new orders for durable goods rose by 9.2%, or $26.6 billion, to $315.7 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders were flat, highlighting a narrow driver behind the gain. Transportation equipment orders soared 27.0% to $124.6 billion, reflecting strength in the commercial aviation and automotive sectors. Orders excluding defense rose 10.4%, indicating robust private-sector investment appetite.

Trader Implications: Mixed Signals for Macro Outlook

While durable goods data shows headline strength, the underlying flat trend excluding transportation warrants caution. Meanwhile, steady insured unemployment and muted initial claims growth signal continued labor market strength, though sector-specific risks are emerging. Traders should weigh these counterbalancing signals carefully, especially with recent industrial momentum concentrated in a single segment.

Market Forecast: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish

The short-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish, supported by a stable jobs market and solid private-sector investment in select industries. However, the concentration of durable goods gains in transportation and regional job losses in manufacturing suggest traders should remain selective in their exposure, particularly within cyclical sectors.