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Oil prices jumped while global stocks and Wall Street retreated following Israel’s strike on Iran, fueling fears of broader Middle East conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, handles around 26% of the world’s oil trade and is rarely far from the center of global tensions.
Iran has targeted merchant ships traversing the choke point in the past, and has even threatened to block the strait. The route’s vulnerability was back in focus after Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed senior military commanders, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict.
The UK had issued a rare warning to mariners days earlier, saying increased tensions in the region could impact shipping. Frontline Ltd., one of the world’s largest oil-tanker operators, said it would be more cautious about offering its vessels to haul cargoes from the Persian Gulf.
The waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, with Iran to its north and the United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south. It’s almost 100 miles (161 kilometers) long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lanes in each direction just two miles wide. Its shallow depth makes ships potentially vulnerable to mines, and the proximity to land — Iran, in particular — leaves vessels open to attack from shore-based missiles or interception by patrol boats and helicopters.
It’s essential to the global oil trade. Tankers hauled almost 16.5 million barrels per day of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iran through the strait in 2024, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The strait is also crucial for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, with more than one-fifth of the world’s supply — mostly from Qatar — passing through during the same period.
Iran has used harassment of ships in the Gulf for decades to register its dissatisfaction with sanctions against it, or as leverage in disputes.
Not so far. During the 1980-88 war between Iraq and Iran, Iraqi forces attacked an oil export terminal at Kharg Island, northwest of the strait, in part to provoke an Iranian retaliation that would draw the US into the conflict. Afterward, in what was called the Tanker War, the two sides attacked 451 vessels between them. That significantly raised the cost of insuring tankers and helped push up oil prices. When sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2011, it threatened to close the strait, but ultimately backed off.
Oil traders doubt Iran would ever close the strait entirely because that would prevent it from exporting its own petroleum. Moreover, Iran’s navy is no match for the US Fifth Fleet and other forces in the region. Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces, said shortly before the MSC Aries seizure that Iran has the option of disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but chooses not to.
During the Tanker War, the US Navy resorted to escorting vessels through the Gulf. In 2019, it dispatched an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the region. The same year, the US started Operation Sentinel in response to Iran’s disruption of shipping. Ten other nations — including the UK, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain — later joined the operation, known now as the International Maritime Security Construct. Since late 2023, much of the focus on protecting shipping has switched away from the Strait of Hormuz and onto the southern Red Sea, the region’s other vital waterway, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that connects it to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on shipping entering or exiting the Red Sea have become a greater concern than the Strait of Hormuz. A US-led force in the Red Sea is seeking to protect shipping in the area.
Saudi Arabia exports the most oil through the Strait of Hormuz, though it can divert shipments to Europe by using a 746-mile pipeline across the kingdom to a terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to avoid both the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. The UAE can export some of its crude without relying on the strait, by sending 1.5 million barrels a day via a pipeline from its oil fields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman to the south of Hormuz.
With its oil pipeline to the Mediterranean closed, all of Iraq’s oil exports are currently shipped by sea from the port of Basra, passing through the strait, making it highly reliant on free passage. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have no option but to ship their oil through the waterway. Most of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz heads to Asia.
Iran also depends on transit through the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports. It has an export terminal at Jask, at the eastern end of the strait, which was officially opened in July 2021. The facility offers Tehran a means to get a little of its oil into the world without using the waterway and its storage tanks were slowly being filled with crude late last year.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said earlier this month that he was sticking with a "gradual and careful" approach to cutting interest rates as uncertainty from U.S. tariffs clouds the outlook.
In May, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. External MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor backed a cut to 4%, while Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted to hold rates.
Financial markets see a roughly 90% chance that the BoE will keep rates at 4.25% on June 19, and price in about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025 - similar to what is expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Following is a summary of comments by MPC members since their last rate decision was announced on May 8.
ANDREW BAILEY, GOVERNOR
June 3: "I think the path (for interest rates) remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty."
"Gradual and careful remain my ... guiding line," Bailey said of his thinking on future rate cuts.
June 3: "We've added the word 'unpredictable' to 'uncertain' because of the sheer nature of what we're dealing with."
May 29: "The less volatile part (of inflation), again it's gradually grinding down but very slowly."
"We don't want to lose the relationship with the U.S. We really want to get to the (trade) issues that are underlying this and help to solve them."
HUW PILL, CHIEF ECONOMIST
May 20: "I would characterise my May vote as favouring a 'skip' within a continuing withdrawal of monetary policy restriction, rather than a halt to the process of withdrawal."
"It should not be seen as favouring a halt to - still less a reversal - of that withdrawal of restriction."
"(As) long as disinflation back to target is not complete, maintenance of some restriction will still be required. On my reading, that is a view that is held across a broad swathe of MPC members."
May 13: "I remain concerned that we have seen a sort of structural change in price and wage-setting behaviour, maybe driven by the type of things that were involved in models of the inflation process from the '70s and '80s."
May 9: "The analysis in the baseline forecast does not suggest that there's a dramatic shift in the behaviour of the UK economy on the back of these trade announcements and trade uncertainties."
CLARE LOMBARDELLI, DEPUTY GOVERNOR
May 12: "Caution remains appropriate. I'll be more comfortable when I see material deceleration in the data over a longer period."
SARAH BREEDEN, DEPUTY GOVERNOR
June 3: "I thought that there was a case for a cut in Bank Rate, even absent the international developments, because I judged that domestic disinflationary process that we've all talked about was progressing as I expected, and I thought it would continue."
June 1: "The big picture, the landscape on which I'm thinking about policy, is that the waves of disinflation are continuing."
"I think the labour market is loosening. We've seen unemployment rise a little bit, and in addition we've got relatively weak growth."
ALAN TAYLOR, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER
May 30: "I'm not going to pre-emptively announce my vote, but I think I indicated in my dissent that I thought we needed to be on a lower (monetary) policy path."
"I'm seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments."
May 12: "The erosion of confidence that we saw has continued. We're getting very low readings on PMI and REC and so forth. So there's that continuation, the sort of wait and see in ... precautionary saving (and) postponement of investment."
"The international dimension for me is quite perilous."
MEGAN GREENE, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER
June 7: "Our view is that we can look through it (higher inflation), but of course there's a pretty big risk."
"The last time we had a lot of second-round effects. We're hoping that we won't have second-round effects this time around, but we're not sanguine about it."
"(Private-sector pay growth was) way above what would be consistent with a 2% inflation target".
"It's (going) in the right direction, it's just not going as quickly as I would like it to."
May 12: "What's a little bit more worrisome for me is that medium-term inflation expectations have also started picking up."
"I came into this last round quite torn about whether to hold or cut by 25 basis points."
SWATI DHINGRA, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER
June 3: "On balance, the risks to inflation and growth appear to me to be tilted to the downside."
"The most significant contributions to the near-term pickup in headline inflation reflect developments in household energy bills and past energy shocks, and to a lesser degree, regulated price increases, rather than an imbalance in underlying supply and demand pressures."
CATHERINE MANN, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER
June 2: "An additional cut in this cycle of Bank Rate reduction, so as to try to compensate for tightening at the long end, could run counter to the need to maintain restrictiveness for long enough to purge the structural rigidities in labour and product markets that I have often noted are key to my Bank Rate decisions."
"Now that the MPC is reducing restrictiveness, I believe that we need to consider the differing effects of our policies on different parts of the yield curve ... as a more salient issue."
May 14: "The labour market has been more resilient. Now, yes, we've had some prints that are indicative of a slowing labour market, but it is not a non-linear adjustment."
"I need to see the loss of pricing power. I need to see that firms are starting to be much more moderate in setting their prices across a broad range of products."
DAVE RAMSDEN, DEPUTY GOVERNOR
May 8: "I am worried that we're not going to see that recovery in productivity and supply, which is a kind of fundamental judgment to our baseline forecast. If that on its own happens, that would tend to push inflation up relative to baseline forecast."
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