NVIDIA Q3 FY2026 earnings preview: Blackwell ramp to boost data centre sales

Economic

Summary:

NVIDIA’s Q3 FY2026 earnings are expected to surge on strong Blackwell data-centre demand, with revenue near $54B. Despite China restrictions and “circular deal” concerns, analysts remain bullish and options imply high volatility.

When will Nvidia report its latest earnings?

NVIDIA is scheduled to report its third quarter (Q3) earnings for financial year (FY) 2026 on Wednesday 19 November 2025, after the market closes.

Company backdrop

NVIDIA’s second quarter (Q2) FY2026 earnings, released on 27 August 2025, highlighted the company’s dominance in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, delivering another quarter of strong outperformance despite geopolitical challenges.

Building on its growth trajectory, NVIDIA reported results that beat Wall Street expectations and underscored accelerating demand for its Blackwell platform. However, a slight miss in data centre revenue and ongoing United States–China export restrictions tempered enthusiasm, leading to a muted share price reaction.

At the heart of NVIDIA’s success is its Blackwell architecture, which chief executive officer (CEO) Jensen Huang described as ‘the AI platform the world has been waiting for, delivering an exceptional generational leap – production of Blackwell Ultra is ramping at full speed, and demand is extraordinary.’

Q2 financial highlights

NVIDIA’s Q2 results showed strong year-on-year (YoY) and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) gains, driven by AI-related compute and networking sales.

Key metrics included:

Revenue: $46.74 billion, beating estimates of $46.06 billion. This marked a 56% YoY increase from $30.04 billion, extending NVIDIA’s streak of nine consecutive quarters of over 50% YoY growth – though Q2 represented the slowest pace in that run

Earnings per share (EPS): adjusted EPS of $1.05 versus $1.01 consensus forecast (up 54% YoY and 30% QoQ)

Net income: generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income of $26.4 billion (up 59% YoY and 41% QoQ); non-GAAP at $25.8 billion (up 52% YoY)

Gross margins: 72.4% GAAP and 72.7% non-GAAP (adjusted to 72.3% excluding a $180 million H20 inventory release benefit)

Segment breakdown:

Data centre (85% of total revenue): $41.1 billion, up 56% YoY but down 1% QoQ from Q1, slightly missing estimates of $41.34 billion

Gaming: up 49% YoY, professional visualisation up 32% YoY, automotive up 69% YoY

NVIDIA’s board also authorised an additional $60 billion in share repurchases (with $9.7 billion executed in Q2), underscoring confidence in long-term value creation.

Summary of NVIDIA's Q2 FY2026 results

Q3 earnings expectations

NVIDIA’s Q3 guidance points to:

Revenue: $54 billion (±2%), implying ~16% QoQ and 50%+ YoY growth, with data centre sales likely exceeding $48 billion as Blackwell production scales

EPS: $1.17 (up ~12% QoQ)

Gross margins: GAAP at 73.3% and non-GAAP at 73.5% (±50 basis points)

Data centre revenue: forecast at $48.58 billion, up 18% QoQ and 52% YoY

Gaming revenue: forecast to rise to $4.44 billion, up 3% QoQ and 25% YoY

NVIDIA Q3 FY2026 outlook

Key areas of focus

Blackwell ramp and supply chain: updates on Blackwell Ultra deliveries, which could contribute $8–12 billion in Q3 revenue (up from Q2’s $5–7 billion). Any production delays could signal risks to FY2027 growth

China exposure: Q2’s $4.5 billion H20 write-down loomed large. Guidance excludes China H20 shipments, with Huang stating ‘zero share’ in the market

Segment momentum: beyond data centre (expected 88–90% of revenue), gaming and automotive should provide diversification. Sovereign AI deals and enterprise inference could surprise positively

Guidance for Q4 2026: Wall Street eyes $61.29 billion for Q4 revenue with data centre contributing $55.78 billion.

Guidance beats have become the norm, but with YoY growth moderating from triple-digits, the bar is higher for qualitative insights on AI inference economics and sovereign AI deals.

NVIDIA data center revenue

NVIDIA’s recent circular deals: fueling growth or bubble risk?

In recent months, NVIDIA has deepened its AI ecosystem through a series of financing and partnership arrangements often described as ‘circular deals’. These involve NVIDIA investing in key customers and partners who, in turn, commit to significant graphics processing unit (GPU) purchases.

These agreements have locked in billions of dollars in forward revenue, reinforcing NVIDIA’s dominance in the supply chain and accelerating the buildout of next-generation data centres. CEO Jensen Huang has characterised these moves as strategic bets on a ‘multitrillion-dollar AI future’, ensuring NVIDIA remains at the centre of global compute infrastructure.

However, critics argue these arrangements resemble vendor financing practices from the dot-com era, where inflated commitments masked underlying demand weaknesses. If AI adoption slows or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, these interlocking dependencies could amplify risks, potentially triggering defaults or write-downs across the ecosystem.

The scale of these deals is significant. For example, OpenAI has committed more than $1 trillion in AI infrastructure since mid-2025, much of which loops back to NVIDIA through direct investments and indirect chip purchases by partners such as Oracle and CoreWeave.

Proponents, including CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator, insist there is ‘nothing circular’ about these transactions, arguing that hyperscalers and AI labs are simply meeting explosive compute demand with locked-in supply. Critics counter that the money trail often circles back to NVIDIA itself, artificially propping up sales figures and echoing the vendor-financed bubble of the early 2000s. Time will tell which view proves correct.

Is NVIDIA a buy or a sell?

NVIDIA has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘9 outperform’ and is rated as a ‘strong buy’ by analysts, with 37 ‘buy’, 1 ‘hold’ and 1 ‘sell’ recommendation as of 11 November 2025.

NVIDIA TipRanks smart score

What does the options market say?

The options market prices in an implied move of approximately ±8.5% for NVIDIA’s share price post-earnings. At current levels (~$199 per share), this equates to a potential rise to $215 or a drop to $183.

NVIDIA technical analysis

NVIDIA’s share price rallied ~143% from its April $86.62 low to its recent $212.19 high before falling ~15% into last week’s $178.91 low.

Its rebound from $178.91 has been decisive, returning to the bullish trend channel it has held for seven months. Staying above trend support at $184 and the recent $178.91 low keeps the bullish structure intact, opening the door for a retest of all-time highs near $212 before resistance at $235.

A sustained break below $184 and then $178.91 would negate the short-term bullish setup, potentially targeting support near $164.

NVIDIA daily candlestick chart

Source: ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data