Natural Gas News: Futures Hover at Pivot in Volatile Weather Market

Commodity

Summary:

Natural gas futures hover near a key pivot as traders balance weather forecasts, export flows, and high supply. Bullish momentum builds, but weak demand and inventory levels temper further upside.

Natural Gas Futures Find Support as Traders Weigh Weather, Demand, and Technical Signals

Daily Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas futures are holding slightly higher on Wednesday, consolidating after Tuesday’s rally that snapped a four-session losing streak. Traders are closely watching price action near the $3.438 pivot, with bullish momentum eyeing resistance in the $3.700–$3.733 range. Price direction is increasingly tied to weather forecasts and signals from both the physical and technical markets.

Can Weather-Driven Demand Sustain the Rebound?

Forecasts continue to cap near-term enthusiasm. NatGasWeather expects below-normal temperatures for most of the Midwest and East through May 27, keeping national demand on the lighter side. Daytime highs are pegged in the 50s–70s, with some pockets even cooler. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions across the western and southern U.S. are expected to hold through early June, potentially pushing national demand higher if the pattern persists.

While a true heat-driven demand surge remains speculative, the market responded to forecasts hinting at stronger conditions by June 2–4. The promise of higher power burn from air conditioning demand offers a bullish case, but the timing is still distant and subject to revision.

What Role Are Cash Prices and Export Flows Playing?

Support from the physical market helped fuel Tuesday’s gains. Waha cash prices flipped into positive territory, a key signal of improving regional fundamentals. Export flows remain a pillar of support as U.S. shipments to Mexico hit record levels, reflecting robust cross-border demand. However, LNG exports were slightly lower week-over-week at 15.0 Bcf/day, tempering some of the bullish sentiment.

Dry gas production remains elevated at 106.1 Bcf/day, up 5.1% year-over-year. Demand, by contrast, is lagging—Tuesday’s Lower 48 consumption came in at 67.5 Bcf/day, down 2% from a year ago. These figures reinforce the underlying supply-heavy backdrop, even as short-term bullish momentum builds.

Are Inventories and Electricity Demand Signaling Caution?

Last Thursday’s EIA storage report showed an injection of 110 Bcf, matching expectations but well above the five-year average of 83 Bcf. Storage is now 2.6% above the five-year average, despite being 14.6% below last year’s level. Meanwhile, electricity output fell 2.8% year-over-year in the week ending May 10, a bearish signal for natural gas demand from utilities.

In Europe, gas storage stood at 45% full as of May 18, below the five-year norm of 55%, lending modest support to global gas prices that could spill over into U.S. benchmarks.

Market Forecast: Bullish Momentum Faces Short-Term Headwinds

Despite this week’s rally, natural gas remains rangebound, with traders watching closely for a break above $3.438 to confirm bullish continuation toward $3.700+. Weather forecasts and export demand are supportive, but elevated supply and subdued power generation temper upside potential. In the short term, expect a cautiously bullish tone, contingent on heat holding in forecasts and prices maintaining technical support above the 200-day moving average at $3.169.

source : fxempire

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Adam

Stocks

Palo Alto Networks — Shares of the cybersecurity company dipped 3.7% after Palo Alto Network’s gross margin for the fiscal third quarter came out below estimates. The company still beat on earnings and revenue expectations, however.

UnitedHealth— Shares dropped more than 6% after HSBC downgraded the health insurance giant, saying valuations are still elevated despite a recent rout.

Target— The retailer’s stock slipped 3.5% after Target missed first-quarter revenue estimates and cut its full-year sales outlook. Executives blamed tariff uncertainty, weaker discretionary spending and backlash to the company’s rollback of key diversity, equity and inclusion efforts for its performance.

Lowe’s— Shares of the home improvement retailer rose 2%. Lowe’s reaffirmed its full-year forecast, putting the retailer on track for year-over-year sales growth. Lowe’s also reported earnings of $2.92 per share, beating an LSEG estimate of $2.88 per share. Revenue of $20.93 billion came out just shy of the $20.94 billion expected.

Toll Brothers— The homebuilder rose more than 4% after fiscal second-quarter results topped expectations. Toll Brothers reported $3.50 in earnings per share on $2.74 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $2.83 per share in earnings and $2.48 billion in revenue.

Carter’s— Shares of the children’s clothing company slid about 6% after Carters cut its quarterly dividend to 25 cents per share, down from 80 cents per share. The company’s chief executive said in a release that Carter’s dividend was misaligned with its level of profitability against the current market environment, and that higher tariffs could lead Carter’s to incur significantly higher product costs.

Wolfspeed— Shares of the semiconductor supplier plunged more than 60% after The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the matter that Wolfspeed is preparing to file for bankruptcy within weeks.

Xpeng— The Chinese EV maker rose than 5% in the premarket after a smaller-than-expected loss for the first quarter. Xpeng added it expects to deliver between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter. That represents a year-over-year increase of more than 200%.

Source: cnbc

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Warren Takunda

Economic

For households across Britain, April was an awful month. Rising energy bills, broadband costs and the sharpest increase in water bills since privatisation – despite public anger over the quality of service offered – all added to the cost of living squeeze.

Economists had forecast a jump in inflation based on the flurry of annual bill increases. But at 3.5% – the highest rate in the G7 – the rise was bigger than the 3.3% rate predicted in the City, and will raise concerns at the Bank of England.

Most of the increase was down to energy costs, after a well-telegraphed 6.4% increase in the Ofgem consumer price cap. However, there was a much bigger leap in water and sewerage bills, where prices rose by a whopping 26.1%, the biggest annual increase since February 1988.

Although inflation had been cooling for several months, it was clear a jump in the headline rate would come as a consequence of the changes in utility bills, as well as a number of other price increases timed to land in April each year.

Inflation has been close to the 2% target since the middle of last year, having fallen back from a peak of more than 11% in late 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. Now it is on the rise again, and Threadneedle Street forecasts it will peak at an average of 3.5% over the summer months and does not expect it to return to its 2% target until early 2027. Bigger Than Expected Inflation Jump Worsens Bank of England Dilemma_1

Bigger Than Expected Inflation Jump Worsens Bank of England Dilemma_1

Usually, inflation sticking above the Bank’s target for so long would entirely rule out interest rate cuts. However, at 4.25%, official borrowing costs are squeezing businesses and households at a time when there are concerns about economic growth given heightened uncertainty as Donald Trump’s trade wars rattle the global economy.

In this world, policymakers are attempting to strike a balance between bearing down on inflation, while supporting activity in the economy. Given the higher-than-expected inflationary burst in April, there are concerns that the Bank will not be able to reduce borrowing costs by as much as hoped, even as economic uncertainty remains elevated.

There are, however, some signs that the rise in inflation should prove temporary. Business leaders have been warning about the impact of the government’s £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions (NICs) – introduced last month – being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Economists say there was some evidence in the April data, after services inflation – which is more sensitive to labour costs – sharply strengthened on the month, from 4.7% to 5.4%. To many business groups this was a clear sign of costs being passed on.

However, the picture is not entirely clear. Much of the overshoot was caused by the timing of Easter. The Office for National Statistics highlighted that it gathered its data for consumer prices during this year’s Easter holidays, when travel and tourism companies sharply increase prices. Because it gathered last year’s data outside the long bank holiday weekend, the inflation rate – which measures the change in price from a year earlier – is unflatteringly high.

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

China highlighted the importance of the recent trade talks with the U.S. on Wednesday, stating that they were a significant step towards resolving differences. However, the Asian giant emphasized the necessity for multilateralism as an "indispensable" tool to navigate the complexities of global trade disputes.

The statement came from China’s mission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) during a two-day meeting of the WTO’s General Council in Geneva. While acknowledging the value of bilateral talks, the mission stressed that multilateralism was the ultimate solution to global challenges.

Trade tensions have been high between China and the U.S., with both nations imposing reciprocal tariffs on each other. The situation escalated in April when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of such tariffs. However, on May 12, the two major trade partners held talks to alleviate the strain over trade imbalances.

Following these discussions, both countries announced a trade truce. The U.S. reduced the additional tariffs it had placed on China to 30% from 145%, and China, in turn, lowered its tariffs to 10% from 125%.

During the WTO council session on Wednesday, China urged member states to stabilize trade relations and align trade measures with WTO rules. It criticized unilateral tariffs and the threat of reciprocal tariffs, likening them to adding fuel to the fire.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday. A steady flow of safe-haven buying is pushing the precious metals prices higher this week. June gold was last up $26.30 at $3,310.90. July silver prices were last up $0.126 at $33.30.

In overnight news, the CNN news outlet reported U.S. intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. The marketplace is not too unnerved over the report. It’s likely Israel has had contingency plans to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities for years.

Gold prices have rebounded at mid-week, on renewed safe-haven demand, including stronger demand from China. Broker SP Angel reports today in an email dispatch: “We continue to see Chinese buying as the primary driver of the gold price, and the market was likely reassured by data showing April imports rose 73%, month-on-month, to 127.5 metric tons--an 11-month high. China’s central bank has recently allocated fresh quotas to commercial banks, boosting gold demand. Additionally, Chinese insurance companies are also being encouraged to boost their gold holdings, as China continues to diversify its foreign reserve holdings and asset base. Chinese retail buying of gold comes amid concerns over their domestic property market and Chinese yuan depreciation.”

Bloomberg reported overnight that Chinese jewelers and investors imported the most platinum in a year last month, as the precious metal’s stability enhanced its attractiveness over the more volatile gold market.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to lower openings today in New York.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $62.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.567%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Gold price rallies on steady safe-haven demand_1

Technically, June gold futures bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum now. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $3,123.30. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,322.50 and then at $3,350.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,287.00 and then at $3,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Gold price rallies on steady safe-haven demand_2

July silver futures bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $31.78. First resistance is seen at $33.48 and then at $33.75. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at $32.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source: kitco

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Adam

Stocks

Six weeks into a torrid rebound, US stocks are still laggards in global equity markets this year. For them to sustain the rally and reclaim their usual spot at the top of the pack, Corporate America’s profit engine needs to rev back up, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence say.

The S&P 500 Index (^SPX) has underperformed a gauge of 22 developed markets outside of the US since late last year as the pace of US earnings growth relative to the rest of the world narrowed, according to an analysis by BI’s Nathaniel Welnhofer. The last time such a phenomenon occurred was in 2017 when the US stock benchmark’s earnings growth trailed its overseas peers.

“US equity outperformance relative to international markets has historically hinged on the ability of US companies to deliver faster earnings growth, a dynamic that could challenge the American exceptionalism narrative,” Welnhofer said.

US earnings growth eclipsed that of other developed markets by 13% for the 12-month period through December, but that edge has since narrowed to 9% and could decline further as companies struggle to navigate the toll of tariffs on their bottom lines, according to BI. So far this year, the S&P 500 has underperformed the MSCI World Index excluding the US by roughly 13 percentage points.

US stocks need earnings boost to regain edge over global peers_1

While US stocks have benefited from softer rhetoric by the Trump administration around trade — particularly from the temporary truce with China – their recovery back to pre-tariff highs trails other major global markets. The S&P 500 is still roughly 3% below its Feb. 19 record, while the MSCI ex-US hit a new high Tuesday.

Even though the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 19% from its April 8 low, some Wall Street pros have questioned the durability of the advance. At Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division, Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett said US stocks’ round-trip seemed unreasonable against a backdrop of slowing earnings growth.

“The earnings environment is critical to the sustainability of the recent move,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. With trade policy still in flux, companies are forced to fly blind through an ever-changing operating environment that leaves little confidence in making business decisions or providing guidance, he said.

Earnings outlooks this reporting cycle from corporations across the US have foreshadowed a dire picture about what’s ahead, with executives citing rising costs, weak consumer sentiment and low business confidence due to President Donald Trump’s levies on global trading partners.

So-called profit guidance momentum, a measure of the share of S&P 500 members that lifted their earnings outlooks compared to those that maintained or lowered views, fell to the lowest level since at least 2010, according to an analysis from BI equity strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.

Meanwhile, investors appear to be less skeptical about corporate profits, if valuations are any guide. The S&P 500 is trading at 22 times projected earnings in the next 12 months, a multiple that’s 19% above its long-term average.

“We feel that the market valuations seem more confident than the rhetoric we’re seeing from corporations and something has to give,” Buchanan said.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Michelle

Political

Palestinians in Gaza were left waiting for the promised arrival of food on Wednesday despite mounting international and domestic pressure on the Israeli government to allow more aid to reach a population on the brink of famine after an 11-week blockade.

Fewer than 100 aid trucks have entered Gaza, according to Israeli military figures, since Monday, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government agreed to lift the blockade that has forced Gazans into a desperate struggle to survive.

With air strikes and tank fire continuing to pound the enclave, killing dozens of people on Wednesday, local bakers and transport operators said they had yet to see fresh supplies of flour and other essentials.

Abdel-Nasser Al-Ajramy, the head of the bakery owners' society, said at least 25 bakeries that were told they would receive flour from the World Food Programme had seen nothing and there was no relief from the hunger for people waiting for food.

"There is no flour, no food, no water," said Sabah Warsh Agha, a 67-year-old woman from the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya sheltering in a cluster of tents near to the beach in Gaza City. "We used to get water from the pump, now the pump has stopped working. There is no diesel or gas."

The resumption of the assault on Gaza since March, following a two-month ceasefire, has drawn condemnation from countries that have long been cautious about expressing open criticism of Israel. Even the United States, the country's most important ally, has shown signs of losing patience with Netanyahu.

Britain has suspended talks with Israel on a free trade deal, and the European Union said it will review a pact on political and economic ties over the "catastrophic situation" in Gaza. Britain, France and Canada have threatened "concrete actions" if Israel continues its offensive.

'PARIAH STATE'

Within Israel, left-wing opposition leader Yair Golan drew a furious response from the government and its supporters this week when he declared that "A sane country doesn't kill babies as a hobby" and said Israel risked becoming a "pariah state among the nations."

Golan, a former deputy commander of the Israeli military who went single-handedly to rescue victims of the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023, leads a party with little electoral clout.

But his words, and similar comments by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in an interview with the BBC, underscored the deepening unease in Israel at the continuation of the war while 58 hostages remain in Gaza. Netanyahu dismissed the criticism.

"I heard Olmert and Yair Golan - and it's shocking," he said in a videoed statement. "While IDF soldiers are fighting Hamas, there are those who are strengthening the false propaganda against the State of Israel."

Opinion polls show widespread support for a ceasefire that would include the return of all the hostages, with a survey from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem this week showing 70% in favour of a deal.

But hardliners in the cabinet, some of whom argue for the complete expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza, have insisted on continuing the war until "final victory", which would include disarming Hamas as well as the return of the hostages.

Netanyahu, trailing in the opinion polls and facing trial at home on corruption charges which he denies as well as an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court has so far sided with the hardliners.

Air strikes and tank fire killed at least 34 people across the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, Palestinian health authorities said. The Israeli military said air strikes hit 115 targets, which it said included rocket launchers, tunnels and unspecified military infrastructure.

As some trucks left Kerem Shalom, the sprawling customs and logistics hub at the south-eastern corner of the Gaza Strip, a small group of Israeli protestors angry that any supplies were being let into Gaza while hostages were still held there tried to block them.

Israel imposed the blockade at the beginning of March, saying Hamas was seizing supplies meant for civilians, a charge denied by the militant group.

A new U.S.-backed system, using private contractors, is due to begin aid distribution in the near future but the plan has been criticized by aid groups and many key details remain unclear.

Israel launched its campaign in Gaza in response to the Hamas attack on Oct 7, which killed some 1,200 people by Israeli tallies and saw 251 hostages abducted into Gaza.

The campaign has killed more than 53,600 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities, and devastated the coastal strip, where aid groups say signs of severe malnutrition are widespread.