Market Quick Take - 10 December 2025

SAXO

Commodity

Stocks

Forex

Summary:

Market Quick Take – 10 December 2025 Market drivers and catalysts Equities: Equities traded mixed, with flat U.S. and softer Eur

Market drivers and catalysts

· Equities: Equities traded mixed, with flat U.S. and softer Europe and Asia as investors wait for the Fed and key China data

· Volatility: VIX mid-teens, short-term vols jump into Fed, SPX 0DTE implies ±0.6%

· Digital Assets: Options heavy put demand in IBIT/MSTR/miners, ETHA balanced and structured

· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields at high end of recent range ahead of FOMC

· Currencies: FX volatility extremely muted ahead of FOMC, JPY weak

· Commodities: Silver trades above USD 60 as industrial demand fuels supply concerns

· Macro events: Bank of Canada Rate Decision, FOMC rate decision

Macro headlines

· SpaceX, the Elon Musk-led company, is said to be moving ahead with plans for an IPO in mid-to-late 2026 that would value the company at USD 1.5 trillion and raise more than USD 30 billion, making it the largest IPO ever.

· France's National Assembly approved next year's social security bill by 247–234, boosting the odds of a year‑end budget and easing calls for Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu to resign, with Lecornu saying the vote shows compromise is possible even as the main budget will be tougher and the government's stance unchanged.

· US job openings rose to a five‑month high of 7.67 million in October while layoffs climbed to 1.85 million, the highest since early 2023, and hiring fell by 218,000, with Stephen Stanley saying the labour market is slowing but not as sharply as some alternative indicators suggest.

· Ahead of today's widely expected hawkish rate cut from the FOMC, bond traders are betting on a shallower path of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the year ahead, with just two 25 bps cuts expected during the first half. The change is part of a global move to wager that major central banks will slow or halt their monetary easing.

Equities

· USA: U.S. equities ended mixed, with the S&P 500 flat, the Nasdaq slightly higher and the Dow down 0.4% as traders weighed fresh labour data ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Job openings rose to about 7.67 million in October, keeping the Fed's data-dependent stance in focus while markets price a 25 basis point cut this week, and JPMorgan fell 4.7% after guiding 2026 expenses to roughly 105 billion, dragging peers. Nvidia eased 0.3% on talk China may curb H200 chip purchases despite U.S. export clearance with a surcharge, while Home Depot slipped 1.3% and Paramount, Netflix and Warner Bros Discovery moved on the evolving Hollywood deal saga, with investors now watching the Fed's guidance on the 2026 rate path.

· Europe: European equities edged lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.1% and the Stoxx 600 near flat as investors stayed cautious ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision, where a 25 bp cut is widely expected but the 2026 policy path remains unclear. EssilorLuxottica dropped 5.6% after Warby Parker unveiled glasses with built-in artificial intelligence (AI) features in partnership with Google, while Thyssenkrupp slid around 6.5% on guidance that pointed to a possible 800-million-euro loss in 2026. By contrast, defence stocks rallied after reports that German lawmakers will sign off on 29 procurement deals totalling about 52 billion euros next week, lifting Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, Leonardo, BAE Systems and Thales as markets focus on European rearmament and budget debates.

· Asia: Asian trading was weaker, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down 1.3% to around 25,434, a two-week low as losses spread across sectors ahead of the Federal Reserve decision and key Chinese inflation data. Talk of a "hawkish cut" and uncertainty around U.S. policy in 2026 kept investors cautious, while mainland shares eased before November consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) releases even as the Politburo pledged stronger 2026 support through proactive fiscal and loose monetary policy. Tech and consumer names led declines, with Pop Mart off 5.4%, SMIC down 4.2% and Xiaomi, Meituan and China Resources Land losing about 3–4%, and the focus now shifts to how Beijing's support plans feed through to earnings and sentiment.

Volatility

· Equity volatility is edging higher into tonight's Fed decision, but we are still in a mid-teens regime rather than full risk-off. VIX closed near 16.9 (+1.6%), with short-dated gauges like VIX1D jumping more sharply as traders pay up for very local protection. SPX finished around 6,840, down just 0.1%, yet 0DTE options price an intraday move of about ±43 points (≈0.6%), while FOMC-day straddles imply almost ±1% after the announcement, the largest expected Fed move since March.

· Skew remains contained and VVIX is below 100, so demand is focused on near-the-money hedges rather than crash protection, with some strategists even advocating selling rich FOMC straddles given how small recent realized moves have been.

Digital Assets

· Crypto markets are firm but not euphoric as traders also key in on the Fed. Bitcoin trades around 92–93k after bouncing from November's sharp drawdown, with price action choppy but range-bound ahead of the "hawkish cut" many expect. Ether holds just above 3,300 and continues to slightly outperform, while majors like Solana, XRP and the miner complex (MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, CIFR) trade higher, helped by the prospect of easier policy and improving risk sentiment.

· Options flow in crypto remains put-heavy, with sizeable long-dated protection in IBIT and MSTR as investors hedge equity-style proxies and miners, whereas ETHA shows a more balanced mix of calls and puts, pointing to structured upside rather than outright downside bets.

Fixed Income

· US treasury yields trade near the highs of the recent range since September ahead of the FOMC meeting Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield near 3.61%, while the 10-year benchmark yield closed about a basis point higher near 4.19% on Tuesday before pulling back slightly overnight.

· Japanese government bonds traded quietly and within recent ranges, save for at the front end of the yield curve, where the 2-year JGB benchmark yield poked to a marginal new high for the cycle above 1.08% before easing to within Tuesday's trading range below 1.075%.

· The German 10-year Bund yield rose to marginal new highs since March yesterday, nearly touching 2.88%, before easing back to 2.85% into the close.

Commodities

· Silver surged to a fresh record above USD 60, supported by rate-cut expectations and after The Silver Institute said demand is set to expand across key technology sectors such as solar (PV), EVs and related infrastructure, as well as data centres and AI. The gold-silver ratio has slipped to a four-year low around 68.5, marginally below its 25-year average, underscoring silver's strong relative performance.

· Gold trades calmly around USD 4,200 ahead of today's widely expected US rate cut. An uptrend from the October correction low offers support at USD 4,118 while resistance remains firm around USD 4,250.

· Crude trades near recent lows amid ongoing concerns about global oversupply in the coming months. In its latest monthly update, the EIA said US production hit a record this year before slowing in 2026. Meanwhile, the API reported a 4.8 million barrel draw in crude stockpiles, partly offset by a sharp build in gasoline inventories. Brent remains stuck in a narrow four-dollar range, with downside attention focused on support around USD 62.

· The BCOM Grains Index fell to a six-week low following the December WASDE report. Wheat came under pressure after the USDA raised world ending stocks for the 2025–26 season by slightly more than expected, while soybeans remain weighed down by the lack of Chinese buying. Corn, by contrast, edged higher on stronger export demand expectations.

Currencies

· The dollar traded quietly ahead of today's FOMC meeting, with the expectation that the Fed is likely delivering the last cut until after a new Fed Chair takes over next May, but with significant delays in US data meaning that odds might shift in coming weeks. EURUSD edged below the 1.1650, while USDJPY rose, mostly as a function of JPY weakness.

· The Australian dollar remains firm after the recent hawkish RBA meeting and on rising Australian bond yields. AUDUSD, trading near 0.6650, is eyeing the huge overhead resistance level, the top of the range for 2025 at 0.6707, while AUDJPY rose above 104.00 for the first time since July of 2024.

Source: SAXO

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Mounting Pressure from Currency Depreciation

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has taken a more vocal stance on the rapid depreciation of the Korean won, with board member Kim Jong-hwa stating that authorities must consider intervention to mitigate its economic consequences. Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Kim underscored that the weakening currency is not only an abstract market trend but a concrete threat to South Korea’s macroeconomic stability, warning of higher inflation and eroding household purchasing power.

The won has fallen roughly 5% against the US dollar in the current quarter, approaching a 16-year low. This decline has been attributed to a combination of persistent capital outflows, investor appetite for foreign equities, and the yawning interest rate gap between South Korea and the United States.

Rate Gap and Policy Inertia Highlight Structural Risk

The BOK has kept its base rate steady in recent policy meetings, leaving the benchmark at 3.5%, while the US Federal Reserve’s current policy rate sits around 5.5%. The two-percentage-point differential is the widest since 1999 and remains a primary driver of capital outflows from South Korea. With the Fed’s December meeting expected to deliver only moderate rate cuts if any the divergence may persist into early 2026.

This widening interest rate gap directly affects currency markets. Foreign investors have fewer incentives to hold won-denominated assets when dollar yields remain higher, contributing to sustained weakness in the Korean won. The implications are multifaceted: higher import costs, inflationary spillovers, and growing stress for small and medium-sized exporters lacking effective currency hedging strategies.

Call for Coordinated FX Measures

Although Kim did not outline specific intervention tactics, his remarks suggest growing internal pressure on the BOK and other state institutions to act jointly. The recent creation of a four-party consultative group comprising the BOK, the finance ministry, the welfare ministry, and the National Pension Service (NPS) represents a structural shift toward proactive coordination on exchange rate stability.

One immediate tool under consideration is the issuance of dollar-denominated bonds by the NPS to raise foreign currency liquidity. This could relieve pressure on the local currency without tapping into foreign exchange reserves. Such an action, while not a direct FX market intervention, would serve as a supply-side measure to address the dollar shortage and support the won.

Risks of Inaction: Inflation and Business Strain

Kim warned that if authorities fail to respond, the economic burden will fall disproportionately on SMEs and import-reliant industries. Many exporters lack sufficient currency hedging mechanisms, and domestic manufacturers importing intermediate goods face margin compression if unable to pass on costs. Additionally, retail consumers are already confronting rising prices in energy, food, and imported goods, compounding pressure on real incomes.

The relationship here is causative: a weakening currency raises the domestic price of imported goods, directly contributing to inflation. If inflation accelerates while household incomes stagnate, the resulting decline in purchasing power could dampen consumption and suppress growth, reversing South Korea’s fragile post-pandemic recovery.

Kim’s comments mark a shift in tone from the Bank of Korea, suggesting that passive tolerance of currency weakness is no longer tenable. As South Korea confronts inflation risks, trade competitiveness concerns, and a historically wide rate differential with the US, coordinated measures ranging from bond issuance to possible FX market intervention are likely to emerge. For now, markets will closely watch the BOK’s next moves, as well as the Fed’s policy direction, which remains a central variable in shaping South Korea’s monetary and currency strategy moving into 2026.

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

FXOpen

Forex

Commodity

The AUD and CAD are trading in corrective mode, reflecting market caution ahead of today's Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings. Investors are locking in some profits after a volatile start to the week and prefer to wait for updated guidance from policymakers on the future path of monetary policy.

Over the coming trading sessions, focus will be on decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Fed, as well as the accompanying statements and press conferences. Central banks are setting the tone for the day, meaning reactions in AUD/USD and USD/CAD could be sizeable and highly volatile in the hours ahead.

USD/CAD

Late last week, USD/CAD fell sharply, breaking through key support levels at 1.3890–1.3930. However, a rebound from the psychological 1.3800 level led to consolidation within the 1.3800–1.3860 range. Technical analysis points to the potential for a corrective move back towards the previously broken support, as a "piercing pattern" has formed on the daily chart.

A sustained move above 1.3860 could signal a recovery towards 1.3890–1.3930. If negative news for the US dollar emerges, a renewed test of 1.3800 is possible, followed by a decline towards 1.3730.

Key events that may influence USD/CAD in the near term:

· today at 17:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada interest rate decision;

· today at 18:15 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada press conference;

· today at 18:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories.

AUD/USD

For about a week, AUD/USD has been trading within a relatively narrow range of 0.6600–0.6650. The outcome of the RBA meeting supported the Australian dollar, but the pair has yet to break above the upper boundary of this range and extend its uptrend.

A move above 0.6650 would confirm buyer control and open the way towards 0.6690–0.6710, while a downside break would increase bearish pressure with targets near 0.6550.

Key events that may influence AUD/USD in the near term:

· today at 22:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;

· today at 22:30 (GMT+3): Federal Open Market Committee press conference;

· tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+3): Australia full-time employment change.

Source: FXOpen

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

IC Markets

Forex

Stocks

Commodity

US Stocks Drift Ahead of Fed Rate Decision – Dow Dips 0.4%

US stock markets eased back on Tuesday as traders moved to the sidelines ahead of today's all-important Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Dow fell 0.38% to close at 47,560, the S&P 500 dipped 0.09% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq managed a modest 0.13% rise, finishing at 23,576. A stronger-than-expected set of US employment numbers pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the 2-year yield climbing 4 basis points to 3.615% and the 10-year rising 2.4 basis points to 4.188%.

The firmer yield environment helped lift the dollar; the DXY gained 0.14% on the day to settle at 99.23. In commodities, oil markets remained under pressure as renewed optimism over potential progress in Ukraine peace discussions—following meetings between Kyiv and its allies in London—saw Brent crude slip 0.70% to $62.05, while WTI dropped 0.95% to $58.32 a barrel. Gold, meanwhile, pushed back into recent ranges, rising 0.43% to $4,208.21 an ounce as traders sought a safer footing ahead of a packed macro calendar.

Fed Day at Last

Today's Federal Reserve update has probably been the most highly anticipated central bank meeting of the year, with the volatility in rate moves expectations exceeding all others in the preceding 11 months. With less than a day to go, market expectation sits just under 90% that we will see a further 25-basis-point cut later today. That is up from 70% a month ago, but more crucially up from near 30% around six weeks ago.

Most market participants are expecting to see a relatively "cautious cut" today, with a split in the committee well documented. So, a swing either side—i.e., a dovish cut or a hawkish cut—should see some big moves across all financial products. Stock markets have been trading optimistically over the last couple of weeks, indicating that they anticipate more stimulus into 2026, while the bond market has been more cautious. Either way, the possibility of strong corrections is high, and it should be a very lively market into the end of the trading day.

Huge Day Ahead for Investors

Today looks to be shaping up as one of the biggest days of the month for global markets. The Asian session sees the release of key Chinese data with CPI (exp +0.7% m/m) and PPI (exp +2.0% y/y), which should see some good moves in local markets, while the London session has a scheduled update from ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, the New York session looks set to be extremely lively.

The Federal Reserve's rate call towards the end of the day is without doubt the headline event, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is well priced in; Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference shortly after is likely to drive volatility even further. Earlier in the Northern Hemisphere session, the Bank of Canada will deliver its own interest rate decision, with the market firmly expecting them to hold rates at 2.25%. As with the Fed, traders are expecting forward guidance from the statement and subsequent press conference to add further volatility to local markets. US Crude Oil Inventory data is also due out in the session; however, expect the major central bank updates to dominate.

Source: IC Markets

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Strategic Shift Gains Urgency Amid Rising Trade Risks

European companies are accelerating efforts to diversify their supply chains away from China, moving beyond pandemic-era introspection into concrete operational changes. Jens Eskelund, President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, emphasized this transition in a press briefing ahead of the chamber’s latest report on supply chain vulnerabilities. He noted that “dependencies are being discussed in much more detail,” reflecting deeper awareness of how critical and embedded Chinese production has become to global industries, including in basic goods like toothpaste.

The context for this shift is markedly different from the pandemic. Previously, the primary concern was logistical whether a supply chain could physically deliver products amid lockdowns. Now, the focus has broadened to include political risk, such as how vulnerable businesses are to trade restrictions, export controls, or shifting geopolitical alignments.

Record Trade Surplus and Global Backlash

Ironically, China’s global trade dominance continues to grow even as concerns mount. Official data shows China’s trade surplus reached a record $1 trillion through November 2025, underscoring strong global demand despite persistent US tariffs. China’s share of global container traffic also climbed to 37% in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 36% in 2024 and significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels of 31.7% in 2019.

This rise has been attributed not only to China’s cost advantages such as a weaker yuan and industrial overcapacity but also to lingering dependencies across global supply networks. However, this growing dominance is triggering pushback. The EU Chamber highlighted that China faced a record 198 World Trade Organization trade investigations last year, over half initiated by developing nations, indicating that the backlash is no longer limited to the West.

Export Controls Expose Fragility of Overdependence

Tensions between China and the US have escalated throughout 2025, particularly over trade policy and tariffs. In response, Beijing imposed several rounds of export controls, especially targeting rare earth elements and other strategic materials. These moves have reinforced awareness of the risks associated with depending on a single supplier country, particularly one with increasingly assertive policy tools.

A survey conducted by the EU Chamber in November revealed that around one-third of member firms were now exploring supply options outside China or investing in capacity abroad. This represents a substantial increase from the Chamber’s earlier 2025 survey, where only 10% were focused on supply chain relocation. These latest findings indicate a growing trend of operational diversification and forward planning.

Friendshoring Over Reshoring: A Geographic Recalibration

While political discourse in Europe and the US often centers around “reshoring” as a response to China risk, the actual movement of supply chains reflects a different trend. Cameron Johnson of Tidalwave Solutions observed that “nobody is reshoring it’s all friendshoring.” Companies are primarily redirecting supply networks to politically aligned and lower-cost regions such as Mexico and Southeast Asia, rather than returning manufacturing to Europe or North America.

What makes this shift particularly complex is that Chinese companies are adapting alongside foreign firms. Many are proactively establishing or partnering with factories in these same alternate markets, enabling them to retain influence over production chains even as final assembly leaves China. This illustrates that diversification away from Chinese territory does not necessarily mean a full decoupling from Chinese entities.

Localization and Policy Compliance Still Anchor Some Activity in China

Despite diversification trends, many companies are simultaneously deepening their footprint within China. Around 25% of EU firms surveyed earlier this year said they were expanding their China operations primarily to meet Beijing’s localization requirements. These policies, which incentivize domestic sourcing and production, force foreign businesses to localize in order to maintain market access, even as they hedge globally.

This dual strategy onshoring within China while expanding elsewhere highlights the complexity of supply chain restructuring. Eskelund emphasized that some Chinese companies, especially in the automotive sector, are now more globally adaptive than their own government. This agility allows them to stay competitive across multiple markets, regardless of trade friction.

The European business community is entering a new phase in its relationship with Chinese supply chains. While the rhetoric of diversification has been present since the pandemic, 2025 has seen a measurable turn toward action, spurred by escalating geopolitical risks, export controls, and calls for resilience. Though reshoring remains rare, the pivot toward friendshoring is real and unfolding at scale. The coming year may determine whether these shifts represent a structural rebalancing or merely a tactical adjustment to temporary pressures. Either way, Europe’s dependence on China is being reevaluated in boardrooms with greater urgency than ever before.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Markets Await Clarity on Fed’s Policy Path

European equities are set to open lower on Wednesday, with futures pointing to modest declines across the major indices. The UK’s FTSE is projected to fall 0.34%, Germany’s DAX by 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 by 0.25%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB by 0.3%, according to IG market data. These early moves reflect investor caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy decision for 2025, expected later in the day.

With Fed Funds futures pricing in an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, most market participants anticipate the central bank’s third consecutive reduction. Yet the decision remains contentious among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While some policymakers advocate for more easing to shield the labor market from further weakening, others warn that additional cuts could reignite inflationary pressures. The diverging views introduce uncertainty around the pace and duration of the Fed’s easing cycle in 2026.

Investors will closely examine Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference and the FOMC’s forward guidance for clues on the policy outlook. Market sentiment is expected to remain fragile until there is greater clarity on whether the Fed intends to continue trimming rates into the first half of 2026 or pause to assess macroeconomic stability.

Trump’s Comments Reignite Transatlantic Tensions

Further weighing on European sentiment are renewed diplomatic tensions between the US and its allies across the Atlantic. In an interview published Tuesday by Politico, President Donald Trump lashed out at European leaders, calling them “weak” and accusing the continent of failing to effectively address migration and the Ukraine conflict. He also referred to Europe as “decaying,” a characterization likely to deepen anxiety within European political circles, particularly as peace negotiations regarding Ukraine intensify.

Trump’s remarks may have a chilling effect on diplomatic cooperation just as European nations seek a cohesive strategy for Ukraine and try to assert their role in broader global security negotiations. The comments follow the release of the administration’s latest national security strategy, which openly questioned the reliability of European allies. Markets often respond to geopolitical uncertainty with increased caution, particularly when it clouds investor expectations around economic cooperation and defense spending.

Regional Data and Earnings in Focus

On the data front, investors will review Italy’s latest industrial production figures for additional insight into the health of the eurozone’s third-largest economy. While not typically a major market mover, a downside surprise could reinforce recessionary concerns in Southern Europe, especially as Germany continues to struggle with stagnation.

Earnings from TUI, the German travel and tourism conglomerate, are also on the docket. Investor focus will be on forward bookings and guidance, particularly given persistent inflation in the eurozone and consumer spending headwinds in key holiday markets. Results from TUI may offer signals about discretionary demand and cross-border mobility trends heading into the winter season.

European markets enter Wednesday under pressure from both macroeconomic and political uncertainty. While a Fed rate cut appears likely, the direction of future US monetary policy and its global implications remain unclear. At the same time, geopolitical concerns stemming from President Trump’s renewed criticism of European leadership have introduced fresh doubts over the durability of transatlantic alliances. Until markets receive firmer signals on policy and diplomacy, risk appetite in European equities is likely to remain muted.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Olivia Brooks

Economic

South Korea is considering building a 4.5 trillion won (US$3.06 billion or RM12.6 billion) foundry to manufacture chips, funded by state and private investment, the industry ministry said, amid efforts to ensure the country remains a powerhouse in semiconductors.

President Lee Jae Myung presided over a meeting on Wednesday attended by executives from chipmakers, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as policymakers and experts to lay out plans to maintain the country's lead in memory chips, strengthen the foundry business and expand fabless chip design in the AI era.

"South Korea needs to take a new leap forward, and... the semiconductor sector is an area where we are very competitive," Lee said.

South Korea will consider setting up a 12-inch, 40-nanometre foundry jointly backed by the public and private sectors to help fabless firms develop and test chips, the industry ministry said in a statement.

South Korea will also seek to locally produce defence-related semiconductors, given that the sector relies on imports for 99% of its supplies, the ministry said.

The government will consider putting in a provision for the priority purchase of domestic semiconductors in national security infrastructure in a related law, it said.

A special committee on semiconductors will be established under President Lee to act as the control centre for national policies on chips, the statement said.