June Jobs Report Expected to Show Hiring Slowed While Unemployment Rate Ticked Higher

Economic

Summary:

Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110,000 in June and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.3%, according to consensus estimates

The June jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed while the unemployment rate moved higher. The data's release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market amid growing debate over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 110,000 in June and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.3%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

In May, the US economy added 139,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%.

Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Thursday, according to data from Bloomberg:

* Nonfarm payrolls: +110,000 vs. +139,000 in May

* Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs. 4.2%

* Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4%

* Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.9%

* Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3

"We think labor demand is slowing, but so far the slowdown is modest," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients.

The release comes as signs of cooling in the job market have continued to emerge in recent data. On Wednesday, ADP data showed private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June. This marked the first month of job losses in the private sector since March 2023. Meanwhile, continuing filings for unemployment benefits recently hit their highest level in nearly four years.

But the data has yet to indicate a significant, broad-based slowdown in the labor market. On Tuesday, the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings ended May at their highest level since November 2024. The release also showed the quits and hiring rates remaining near decade lows.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told Yahoo Finance during a call with reporters on Wednesday that it is now clear that hiring momentum has slowed in the US labor market. Still, that doesn't mean the second half of the year will bring "consistent job declines," in Richardson's view. June Jobs Report Expected to Show Hiring Slowed While Unemployment Rate Ticked Higher_1

June Jobs Report Expected to Show Hiring Slowed While Unemployment Rate Ticked Higher_1

The June jobs report comes as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has recently hit several new record highs amid investor optimism over Fed interest rate cuts and US trade deals. Weaker economic data in the past several weeks has pushed markets to price in two interest rate cuts from the Fed, compared to the one reduction investors priced in a month ago, per Bloomberg data.

But should Thursday's jobs report show clear signs of slowing in the US economy that would further boost rate cut bets, it could also be a downside catalyst for stocks, Citi head of US equity trading Stuart Kaiser wrote in a note to clients.

"Payrolls sub-100k or a [unemployment rate] that rounds to 4.4% would push stocks at least 1% lower, in our view," Kaiser wrote.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Manuel

Economic

Forex

The United States dollar is suffering its worst start to a year in more than five decades, likely triggering a price hike for some everyday items and a jump in expenses faced by travelersabroad, some analysts told ABC News.

The greenback has fallen more than 10% in value this year relative to a group of foreign currencies that belong to top U.S. trading partners.

Investors have fled U.S. dollars out of fear inflation could devalue the currency, especially as Congress has moved forward with a large spending bill set to worsen a decades-long trend of ballooning U.S. debt, analysts said.

Even more, they added, President Donald Trump’s fluctuating trade policy and sharp criticism of the Federal Reserve have prompted uncertainty about the nation’s economic stewardship, eroding trust in the dollar as the world’s preeminent “safe haven” asset.

The value of the U.S. dollar – like most assets – is set by supply and demand.

For decades, the U.S. dollar has garnered eager demand due to the strength and stability of the U.S economy, which offers foreign investors a safe place to park their funds. In periods of global economic or political crisis, the U.S. dollar often receives a burst of interest from asset holders.

As a result, the value of the U.S. dollar has proven robust for generations.

The unusually sharp decline at the outset of this year owes in part to concern about a resurgence of inflation, which would reduce the spending power of the dollar and put downward pressure on its value, analysts said.

Trump’s tariff policy has stoked worry about price increases, since importers typically pass along a share of the tax burden in the form of higher prices. A potential increase in the national debt could also push up inflation, as the U.S. issues bonds to cover the cost burden.

“If I’m a central bank holding half a trillion dollars of U.S. Treasuries, essentially the value of that would decline with more inflation if I don’t take action now. If I think it might happen, I might shift to other assets like gold or the [Japanese] yen.”

Investors’ faith in the continued stability of the U.S. economy has also diminished, analysts said, pointing to growing U.S. debt, fluctuating tariffs and Trump’s attacks on the central bank.

Paolo Pasquariello, a professor of finance at the University of Michigan, attributed the decline of the dollar to “the recent erratic policy making by U.S. authorities.”

U.S. Treasuries, Pasquariello said, are no longer viewed as quite as safe an asset, meaning investors are less likely to “park their money during normal times and especially during times of distress.”

What does a weaker U.S. dollar mean for you?

A weaker U.S. dollar could result in higher prices for imported goods and steeper costs for travelers abroad, analysts said.

The anticipated rise in prices for U.S. consumers stems from the uptick in costs faced by importers paying for goods in U.S. currency. A foreign firm would likely demand a higher price since the dollars paid by a customer carry less purchasing power than they previously did, analysts said.

“If you’re buying light fixtures from a firm in India and they’re taking dollars, and they get fewer rupees for those dollars, they're going to start to charge more dollars,” Richard Michelfelder, a professor of professional practice at Rutgers University, told ABC News.

The potential surge in the price of imports could compound the inflation risk posed by tariffs, analysts said, but the dollar-related price hike would hit just about every import entering the U.S.

“If you go online and buy a product that doesn’t come from the U.S., the price is likely to go up,” Michelfelder said.

A weaker dollar also means U.S. travelers abroad are likely to face higher costs since what’s in their pocket will exchange at a lower rate with foreign currencies, analysts said.

“If it takes more dollars to buy a euro and you’re going to Europe, everything you buy will cost more,” Michelfelder said.

The decline in the dollar does deliver some benefits, however. Foreign buyers face lower prices for purchasing U.S. goods, meaning exporters could receive a boost as their products become more competitive on the global market.

The favorable outcome for exporters could improve employment in industries like car manufacturing or advanced technology, while the relative strength of foreign currencies could bring additional tourists and expand the hospitality sector, Michelfelder said.

Source: ABC News

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Manuel

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Oil climbed in light pre-holiday trading after US President Donald Trump said he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam.

West Texas Intermediate rose by more than 2% to trade above $66 a barrel after Trump said he had reached a pact with the Southeast Asian nation that eliminated the nation’s import tariff on US goods. The deal is the third announced following agreements with the major trade partners UK and China, with investors pricing in a tentative optimism that more will be reached ahead of a July 9 deadline.

Oil’s jump was probably amplified by low liquidity ahead of Friday’s July Fourth holiday in the US.

The price gains came despite government data Wednesday showing a build in US crude inventories of 3.85 million barrels. The increase is the largest in three months and over 3 million barrels more than 680,000 barrel increase seen by the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.

Trading activity in crude futures has declined overall since the truce between Israel and Iran led prices to plunge early last week, with volatility returning to the lower levels seen before the war. The market is likely to turn its attention to a glut forecast for later this year, with an OPEC+ meeting this weekend expected to deliver another substantial increase in production quotas.

“Speculators who are already net-long are trying to protect their position,” said Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “The problem is that they are running into a OPEC+ meeting with no place to hide over the long weekend.”

Investors will also hone in on a slew of inputs expected in the coming days, ranging froma jobs report Thursday to an OPEC+ output decision at the weekend.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Stocks

As the Nasdaq Composite enters the second half of 2025 near record highs, investors looking beyond the mainstream mega-cap names have a wealth of opportunities to diversify their portfolios with high-potential tech stocks.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_1

As such, here are five standout Nasdaq-listed gems—Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT), Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP), Monolithic Power (NASDAQ:MPWR) Systems, and Jabil Circuit (NYSE:JBL)—poised for further upside in the latter half of 2025. These companies offer a mix of innovation, undervaluation, and exposure to high-growth sectors like cybersecurity, e-commerce, AI, and networking.

Below, we explore why these stocks are strong buys and the tailwinds driving their potential as the back half of the year begins.

Cisco: Networking Giant on the Edge of Transformation

Cisco Systems may not be the flashiest, but its 50% year-on-year gain proves its staying power as it pivots toward software and recurring revenue. The tech giant is reinventing itself as a leader in AI-driven networking and security, drawing praise from analysts.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_2

Investors are increasingly attracted to Cisco’s stability, consistent dividends, and ability to adapt—making it a “Buy” call for those seeking both growth and resilience as tech markets evolve.

Trading at a forward P/E of around 17, Cisco is substantially undervalued compared to tech peers, offering both growth and value. Its stable dividend yield (~2.5%) adds appeal for income-focused investors.

Fortinet: Cybersecurity Standout with Robust Growth

Fortinet, a leading cybersecurity solutions provider, is a standout due to its undervaluation and robust growth prospects. The company’s stock hit a record high of $114.82 in February, with an impressive 67.9% gain in the past year, yet Investing.com’s AI-backed models suggest it remains undervalued with a ‘Fair Value’ of $112.30, implying a 9.6% upside from recent levels.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_3

This cybersecurity powerhouse remains a favorite as enterprises ramp up their digital defenses amid a surge in AI-driven threats and regulatory demands. With its broad product suite and expanding service margins, Fortinet’s steady revenue growth and healthy free cash flow keep it firmly in “Strong Buy” territory.

The rest of the year looks promising as organizations worldwide prioritize network security, a tailwind that isn’t fading anytime soon.

Shopify: E-Commerce Ecosystem Leader

Shopify is up a robust 70.5% over the last 12 months, riding the wave of e-commerce expansion and global merchant adoption.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_4

Investors are drawn to the company’s great financial health, double-digit revenue growth and its ability to monetize AI-powered tools for merchants. Shopify’s international strength, robust free cash flow margins, and a “Buy” analyst consensus highlight its leadership in the e-commerce infrastructure space.

As digital retail continues to evolve, Shopify’s platform upgrades and strategic partnerships position it for further upside in the second half. Trading at a forward P/E ratio lower than its historical average, Shopify offers a compelling entry point for growth investors.

Monolithic Power Systems: Powering the AI and Data Center Boom

Monolithic Power Systems continues to outperform with a 26.7% return in the second quarter, fueled by its dominance in high-efficiency power solutions and optimism about its AI and automotive exposure.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_5

Despite competition from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Monolithic’s specialized chips for power-efficient systems are in high demand as data centers and electric vehicles scale. Its relentless innovation and margin expansion are drawing institutional interest, and with secular trends in electrification and AI infrastructure, Monolithic Power’s growth runway looks far from exhausted as H2 2025 begins.

Further, the company’s focus on R&D ensures it remains competitive in next-generation technologies.

Jabil: Unsung Hero of Advanced Manufacturing

Jabil is quietly surging, up a massive 99.6% in the past year, as it leverages secular demand for advanced manufacturing and hardware across multiple industries. Jabil’s diversified client base, from electronics to healthcare, and its agility in adopting AI-driven automation have set it apart.

5 Undervalued Tech Gems to Buy and Hold for H2 2025_6

Analysts see more upside ahead as the company continues to win new contracts and expand its margin profile, making it a compelling “Strong Buy” as the second half of 2025 kicks off.

Trading at a forward P/E ratio of ~20, Jabil is cheap relative to its growth prospects, with analysts forecasting 15% EPS growth for 2025 amid strong demand for its manufacturing expertise in high-growth sectors like AI servers and electric vehicles.

Conclusion

Each of these five tech gems is well-positioned for continued momentum into late 2025, backed by secular growth trends in cybersecurity, e-commerce, AI infrastructure, networking, and global manufacturing.

For investors seeking tech exposure beyond the mega-caps, these stocks provide a compelling blend of innovation, financial strength, and clear catalysts for further upside.

source : investing

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Jason

Economic

Commodity

US shale executives expect to drill significantly fewer wells this year than planned at the start of 2025, as lower oil prices and uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariffs hurt profits, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey.

Almost half of oil executives said they expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than planned at the start of the year, according to second-quarter survey results released Wednesday. For “large” exploration and production firms — producing 10,000 barrels per day or more — 42% said they expected a significant decrease in the number of wells drilled. Most firms said that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by 4.01% to 6%.

The responses highlight the headwinds facing domestic production, leading industry executives to take a cautious approach to drilling and spending in direct contrast to Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” rhetoric. Crude prices have fallen as Trump’s tariffs threaten to slow the global economy, while OPEC+ accelerates the revival of its production into a market that was already well supplied.

“It’s hard to imagine how much worse policies and D.C. rhetoric could have been for US E&P companies,” an unidentified executive said in the report. “We were promised by the administration a better environment for producers but were delivered a world that has benefitted OPEC to the detriment of our domestic industry.”

A majority of executives surveyed said they expect Trump’s tariffs on imported steel to weigh on customer demand over the next 12 months.

Some executives called for US steel producers to increase output, as the uncertainty in casing prices for essential steel tubing is delaying drilling activity. For service companies, tariffs mean they have to pass the cost on to their customers, one respondent said.

The Dallas Fed’s quarterly surveys are widely read for the anonymous comments that offer an unfiltered view on factors impacting the oil industry. The bank’s region covers Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

“It is a tough marketplace right now,” said one respondent. Most firms are holding contractors well below what they need to remain profitable, the respondent added.

Oilfield service companies often provide the first indication of an industry downturn because they’re the ones hired to drill and frack new wells. “There is a concern some of our vendors will not survive,” one oil executive said.

“Our customers (exploration and production firms, or E&Ps) are refusing to help absorb these costs,” one oilfield service executive said. “E&Ps continue to speak out of both sides of their mouths. They talk partnership but are treating their vendors like second-class citizens, pushing OFS to unsustainable margins.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

The clock is ticking in trade talks between Washington and the European Union, with European officials now saying their best hope is striking a “political” deal before a key July 9 deadline, three sources told CNBC.

Concrete details of such a trade arrangement would have to be worked out at a later time.

“The U.S. proposal from last week is aimed at an agreement in principle,” one EU official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks, told CNBC, adding that this agreement in principle would then “be negotiated out into a proper trade agreement at a later stage.”

Previously close allies, the U.S. and EU have had a fractious relationship amid disagreements over trade and support for embattled Ukraine in the months since the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Tensions escalated in early April, when White House announced a spate of reciprocal tariffs against most global trade partners, including a 20% levy on the EU. All such duties have been temporarily reduced until July 9 to facilitate talks.

The U.S. sent a new proposal to the EU’s negotiating team last week. European negotiators are having face-to-face talks with their American counterparts later this week with the view to get a deal done in the coming days. Total bilateral trade in goods between the EU and the U.S. accounted for 851 billion euros ($1 trillion) in 2023, according to figures from the European Commission.

European officials expect a new update on the negotiations Friday, but the situation is fluid. On Monday, European ambassadors had conversations about the state of play in the trade negotiations. Lithuania’s Minister of Finance Rimantas Šadžius told CNBC on Wednesday that he is “slightly optimistic” there will be a trade compromise between both sided of the Atlantic.

Despite this, sources told CNBC that, despite efforts to reach a trade compromise, the EU is preparing for any possible outcomes, including the return of reciprocal tariffs.

“The general sense is that in the coming days and weeks, all outcomes, ranging from a successful deal on a framework agreement all the way to higher US tariffs with additional sectors, are still possible,” the same EU official told CNBC.

This sentiment was also shared by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last Friday.

“We are ready for a deal. At the same time, we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement is reached,” she said at a press conference.

The European Commission was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC Wednesday about an update to the talks.

Another EU official, also speaking to CNBC on the condition of anonymity, said there is an awareness in Brussels that it is almost impossible to return to the trade relationship that the EU and U.S. enjoyed before the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

A third EU official, who also chose to speak anonymously, told CNBC that there is a risk that the outcome of the talks will be an “asymmetrical” deal, under which the EU will not escape some additional U.S. levies.

Nonetheless, the bloc is looking to get concessions in critical areas for its economy, including automotive, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, all three sources confirmed.

The first EU official added that some member states will only agree to a deal in principle if there is a commitment from the Trump administration to “upfront tariff relief.”

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, negotiates trade with other parts of the world, but its proposals and position reflects the thinking of the 27 capitals.

source :cnbc

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Adam

Forex

The USD/JPY recovered its entire losses from the day before when it had dropped to test its lowest point since early June below 143.00. Though the pair is now back inside the chop zone around 144.00 handle, the path of least resistance remain to the downside, owing to a strengthening bearish trend for the US dollar.

The greenback has fallen to multi-year lows against several major European currencies including the pound, euro and more noticeably the franc, but it has managed to hold steady against the Japanese yen for the time being, with the 142.00-142.50 area offering strong support on multiple occasions in recent months. But the more a key level is tested, the more likely we will see an eventual breakdown. So, is the USD/JPY forecast going to change to being decisively bearish? Well, it will need to break this key support zone before potentially heading towards 140.00 and lower. For now, the dollar is making a bit of recovery, but that could easily change in the coming days – especially if incoming US data disappoints expectations. Today’s poor ADP reading was a prime example.

Dollar Rebounds on US Data but Path Forward Not Clear

The US dollar index has managed to find some support after falling to its lowest level since February 2022 yesterday. The greenback has found some support on the back of Tuesday’s US data releases when JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing both came in stronger than expected, offering a lift to a dollar still labouring under an asymmetric bearish tilt. On the docket today, we have ADP payrolls (which has just been released, showing a print of -33K vs. +99K), final House approval for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, as well as potential tariff posturing ahead of the 9 July deadline. On Thursday, we will have plenty more US data, including the monthly non-farm payrolls report. These upcoming events means there’s potential for increased volatility in the next few days across the FX space. Though this may imply that there are equal risks to both the upside and downside dollar directions, I will still lean towards the bearish side of things for the greenback owing to the underlying trend and negative sentiment.

Dollar Bears Need Soft Data to Justify Bearish Bets

Yesterday’s saw Fed Chair Jerome Powell stick to script in Sintra, reiterating a data-dependent stance that leaves the dollar finely attuned to labour and inflation releases. It is worth pointing out that he declined to rule out a July cut – meaning a very soft jobs print tomorrow could quickly revive market bets on near-term easing. That would be enough, in my view, to cause the USD/JPY direction to turn sharply lower and move near 140.00 zone.

That said, yesterday’s numbers went the other way. May’s JOLTS data exceeded forecasts, while ISM manufacturing ticked higher, with a rebound in prices paid sub-index pointing to increased inflationary pressures. These data releases aren’t game-changers, but they hint at sticky inflation and a still-resilient labour market, giving the Fed less cause to act soon, despite pressure from the White House. It can therefore be argued that markets may have leaned too far dovish, and that the dollar could regain its footing if inflation picks up. Put another, the dollar bears need to see the release of negative data to justify their bearish bets against the dollar.

In as far as today’s data is concerned, consensus for the ADP was to rebound to 99K from 37K the month before. Instead, we got a negative 33K print. While it’s no oracle for official payrolls, market have moved a little sharply on the back of this sharp miss. Tariff threats also loom, with Trump sticking to a 9 July deadline. While markets suspect another last-minute climbdown, any renewed trade tension still poses a headwind for the dollar.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the USD/JPY is in an overall bearish trend given the fact that price remains below its key moving averages like the 50 or 200 day. Even the 21-day exponential average is now back above current prices to suggest the near-term trend is also starting to turn. With a short-term bullish trend line also broken yesterday, this has added another layer of bearish flavour to the mix.

USD/JPY Rebounds but Risks for US Dollar Remain Titled to Downside_1

That said, support at 142.80-142.00 area needs to give way now for the trend to gather momentum. So far, this area has held on multiple occasions in recent weeks, and this was again the case yesterday as rates bounced right off this important support area. Therefore, a clean break below this area is now needed to provide fresh bearish momentum and pave the way for a potential drop to the next key support area around 140.00.

Otherwise, expect continued choppy price action in the near-term outlook. Resistance is now seen around 144.00, marking the underside of the short-term trend line that has just been taken out. Above it, 145.00 and then 146.00 are the next key short-term hurdles to watch.