Japan's Top Banks Plan Return to JGBs as Yields Rise

Japan's two largest banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), are preparing to increase their holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), signaling a major strategy shift after more than a decade. The move is driven by rising interest rates that now promise higher returns, even as both institutions face unrealized losses on their existing bond portfolios.

A Strategic Reversal After a Decade

For the last ten years, Japan's megabanks steadily reduced their exposure to JGBs. The Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy meant the returns on these bonds were negligible, forcing lenders to look elsewhere.

That long-standing trend now appears set to reverse.

Yields on JGBs have climbed sharply since November, a move initially triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's proposed spending plans. While the sudden rise in yields hurt the value of existing bonds, the market has found a calmer footing in recent weeks. Demand has been solid across the last four debt auctions, and 30-year JGB yields have fallen 32 basis points from their record high of 3.88% on January 20.

"With long-term interest rates showing signs of peaking, I think we'll cautiously rebuild our JGB position," Takayuki Hara, managing director and head of MUFG's CFO office, said at a press briefing.

Navigating Unrealized Losses

The decision to buy more JGBs comes with a significant caveat: rising yields have already inflicted paper losses on the banks' current holdings. When market yields rise, the value of older bonds bought at lower yields falls, creating unrealized losses.

MUFG, Japan's largest lender, reported unrealized losses of 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) on its bond portfolio at the end of the year, a substantial increase from 40 billion yen at the end of March. The bank noted it had sold longer-duration bonds between September and December, a move that helped it avoid even greater losses.

SMFG, the country's second-largest bank, shares a similar outlook. A spokesperson at its earnings briefing confirmed the bank plans to "gradually increase our JGB positions, taking into account the market outlook." SMFG's own unrealized losses on JGBs more than doubled to 98 billion yen in the nine months leading up to the end of December.

To manage risk, Japan's major banks, including the third-largest player Mizuho Financial Group, have focused on short-duration bonds in recent years. As of December, Mizuho's average remaining period for its JGB holdings was just 1.8 years.

Cautious Market Outlook and Potential Hurdles

Despite the banks' statements, some investors and analysts believe a significant pivot into longer-duration bonds may not be immediate. Several factors could delay substantial purchases:

• The prospect of further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.

• Market concerns over Japan's enormous national debt burden.

Political developments are also a key variable. With polls suggesting Prime Minister Takaichi is poised to win the upcoming general election, her expansionary fiscal policies could gain momentum, potentially pushing bond yields even higher.

"I think the JGB curve will rise, and the 10-year rate could reach 2.5%," said Toshinobu Chiba, a fund manager at Simplex Asset Management. He added that this level, compared to the current 2.195%, could serve as a more attractive entry point for the banks to start buying in size.

Higher Rates Fuel Record Profits

This strategic shift is taking place against a backdrop of renewed profitability for the banking sector. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in March 2024 for the first time in 17 years, and three more hikes have followed, bringing the main policy rate to 0.75%.

This new rate environment has directly contributed to all megabanks forecasting record profits for the current financial year. The Topix banking index has surged, doubling in value since the first rate hike in March 2024 and significantly outperforming the broader Topix index's 33% gain.

Analysts predict that increasing their positions in higher-yielding JGBs will further boost bank earnings in the years ahead. Reflecting this optimism, Goldman Sachs analyst Makoto Kuroda recently raised her 2028 financial year forecasts for all three megabanks. Citing the BOJ's December rate hike, the jump in JGB yields, and a weaker yen, she increased net profit estimates for MUFG by 20%, SMFG by 11%, and Mizuho by 21%.