Ishiba's Resignation Adds Uncertainty to BOJ Rate Hike Plans

Key points:

The United States imposed sanctions on cyber scam operators in Myanmar and Cambodia on Tuesday, a booming industry the U.S. says stole tens of billions from Americans last year, according to a Treasury Department statement.Criminal networks have trafficked hundreds of thousands of people into Southeast Asian scam compounds, especially along the Thai-Myanmar border, where they are forced into debt bondage and defrauding strangers online."Southeast Asia's cyber scam industry not only threatens the well-being and financial security of Americans, but also subjects thousands of people to modern slavery," Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley said in the statement.

The Myanmar junta's spokesman did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment, and neither did a Cambodia government spokesman.The scams include money laundering, illegal gambling and persuading victims to make fraudulent investments, and the operators tend to be people - usually foreigners - who have been trafficked and coerced into working in scam compounds.Sanctioned entities included nine companies and individuals in Shwe Kokko, a town in Karen State on the Thai border.The U.S. sanctions aim to choke off funds to the criminal networks, which have flourished in regions controlled both by militias and Myanmar's junta.

COERCION AND VIOLENCE

At Shwe Kokko, operators lured people from across the globe with deceptive offers, then confined, mistreated and coerced them into carrying out online fraud for criminal networks, the Treasury Department said.The criminals often use debt bondage, violence, and the threat of forced prostitution as part of their coercion tactics, it said.The department also sanctioned 10 entities in Cambodia, where centres run by Chinese criminal networks were focused on digital currency fraud. Some compounds in Cambodia resembled prisons, according to Amnesty International, which accused the country of ignoring the industry, allegations it denies.

Since a 2021 military coup, scam centres have expanded rapidly in Myanmar, spreading from militia-controlled areas into those under junta control, a report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said.Shwe Kokko was established in 2017 by Hong Kong–registered Yatai International Holdings Group and the Karen National Army, an armed group allied with Myanmar's military, according to the United States Institute of Peace. Yatai group is sanctioned and KNA has been previously sanctioned.

Source: TradingView

● Effective nuclear waste management is a critical global challenge, particularly for countries like the UK looking to expand their nuclear power sectors.

● The UK has a substantial amount of existing radioactive waste and is struggling to implement a long-term disposal solution, with the proposed underground geological disposal facility facing significant hurdles and cost concerns.

● Public and local community pushback against potential nuclear waste sites further complicates the development of new disposal facilities, making finding a solution an ongoing and difficult process.

One of the biggest hurdles to expanding the global nuclear power sector is the concern over how best to manage nuclear waste.While some believe they have found sustainable solutions to dispose of nuclear waste, there is still widespread debate around how safe these methods are and the potential long-term impact of waste disposal and storage.In the United Kingdom, the government has put nuclear power back on the agenda, after decades with no new nuclear developments; however, managing nuclear waste continues to be a major barrier to development.

Nuclear waste remains radioactive for around 10,000 years, meaning it is vital that governments dispose of all waste effectively to ensure people and the environment are kept safe in the long term.As more governments welcome a new nuclear era, they must address nuclear waste concerns and establish clear guidelines and regulations on disposal to ensure that all nuclear power companies adhere to strong safety standards and practices.

There are three types of nuclear waste: low-, intermediate-, and high-level radioactive waste.Most of the waste produced at nuclear facilities is lightly contaminated, including items such as tools and work clothing, with a level of around 1 percent radioactivity.Meanwhile, spent fuel is an example of high-level waste, which contributes around 3 percent of the total volume of waste from nuclear energy production.However, this contains around 95 percent of the radioactivity, making adequate waste management of these products extremely important.

In the U.K., the government continues to battle with how best to dispose of its nuclear waste, as it looks to expand the industry over the coming decades. The U.K. has 700,000 cubic metres of radioactive waste from its previous nuclear power activities, a figure that will grow as more nuclear projects come online. The government is now considering the development of a massive underground nuclear dump, known as a geological deposit facility (GDF), to safely dispose of the waste. While no site has been confirmed for development, it is expected to be developed in one of two potential sites in Cumbria, in the north of England.

A U.K. Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson stated, “Constructing the UK’s first geological disposal facility will provide an internationally recognised safe and permanent disposal of the most hazardous radioactive waste.”They added, “Progress continues to be made in areas taking part in the siting process for this multibillion-pound facility, which would bring thousands of skilled jobs and economic growth to the local area.”

However, the U.K. Treasury believes the government’s plan for the waste dump is “unachievable”, rating the project as “red”, or not possible, in a recent assessment. This means that, “There are major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable. The project may need rescoping and/or its overall viability reassessed.” In addition, there are concerns over the projected project cost, which is expected to be anywhere up to $73 billion.Richard Outram, the secretary of Nuclear Free Local Authorities, explained, “The Nista red rating is hardly surprising. The GDF process is fraught with uncertainties, and the GDF ‘solution’ remains unproven and costly.”

At present, the U.K. stores most of its nuclear waste at its Sellafield facility in Cumbria, which is viewed as one of the most complex and hazardous nuclear sites worldwide. However, with the planned decommissioning of several power plants and the development of new nuclear facilities, the government must address its imminent waste issue. This is a long-term problem, with it expected to take until 2150 to dispose of the country’s existing waste into a GDF, if one is developed, before disposing of new waste.

In June, Lincolnshire County Council withdrew from being a potential site for the GDF after engaging with communities about the proposal. This is a common problem with developing nuclear waste sites, as the pushback in proposed waste regions often prevents development due to a not-in-my-backyard perspective from residents in the area. It is still unclear whether communities in Cumbria will hold a similar opinion. Corhyn Parr, the CEO of Nuclear Waste Services, said, “A GDF requires a suitable site and a willing community and will only be developed when both are in place.”

Several countries around the globe are battling with how best to dispose of old and new nuclear waste, as a nuclear renaissance is starting to be seen, in line with global aims for a green transition. While nuclear power is now viewed as extremely safe and clean, there are pressing concerns around the adequate disposal of waste, which can be extremely harmful to human health and the environment if improperly managed, that must be rapidly addressed.

Source: Zero Hedge

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Significant Downward Revision of Job Growth Expected

Impact of Technological Change and Policy on Labor Demand

Revisions Highlight Weakness Before Tariff Impact

Monetary Policy and Economic Reactions

Source: Reuters

As the US Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies has fallen below 97.30 – its lowest level since late July.

The reasons lie in market sentiment ahead of major data releases:

→ On Wednesday at 15:30 GMT+3, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures will be published; a month ago they came in extremely high.

→ On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are due.

These releases are particularly significant as next week the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on interest rates – a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

On 18 August, we identified a descending channel (shown in red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lower lows → it remains valid.

In addition, our base scenario suggested that the index might test one of the quartile lines (QL and/or QH) dividing the channel → indeed, since then the QH line has been tested several times (red arrow), convincingly acting as resistance.

What Next?

Bearish case:

→ Lower highs and lows throughout the second half of August indicate that sellers are in control of the DXY market.

→ The black arrow marks bearish momentum that broke through support at 98.05 last week.

→ The drop was sharp (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers), and yesterday the 98.05 level acted as resistance.

Bullish case:

→ The DXY has dropped into the median zone, where supply and demand often balance. Buyers may step in, viewing current levels as attractive for entry.

→ The RSI may potentially form a bullish divergence.

→ The latest candle on the right shows a long lower wick (a bullish pin bar pattern), underlining buyers’ determination.

Given the above, we could expect the DXY to hover around the median area. However, the upcoming US inflation reports could trigger volatility across financial markets. A test of support at 97.15 could occur.

Source: FXOpen

Tariffs Intensify Industry Strains

Protectionism and Market Displacement

Source: Reuters