India's Top Court Agrees To $570 Million Settlement By Fugitive Billionaire Brothers

Political

Economic

Summary:

India's Supreme Court has agreed to drop criminal charges against billionaire brothers Nitin and Chetan Sandesara if they pay a third of their dues in a $1.6-billion bank fraud, a step that could prompt other offenders to seek similar settlements.

After being accused of defaulting on domestic bank loans, the brothers, whose companies spanned industries from pharmacueticals to energy, fled India in 2017 on Albanian passports, court filings showed. They denied wrongdoing.

The Supreme Court order, published on its website on Friday, is being reported for the first time. It quoted the brothers' lawyer, Mukul Rohatgi, as saying they were agreeable to paying a settlement of $570 million, and set a December 17 deadline.

Rohatgi told the court his client were ready to settle "to get rid of all proceedings", the order said, and asked for all proceedings to be quashed.

Rohatgi did not immediately respond to Reuters queries.

The brothers figure among 14 designated fugitive economic offenders under a 2018 law that allows the freezing of assets.

Others in the category are Kingfisher Airlines founder Vijay Mallya and diamond magnate Nirav Modi, who both deny accusations of bank fraud.

The Sandesaras own Nigeria's Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production, which contributes 2.5% of federal revenue, the company says on its website.

India's federal crime fighting agency accused the brothers, known for throwing lavish parties attended by Bollywood stars, of duping banks to the tune of $1.6 billion, though they denied the allegations.

The ruling could open the way for economic offenders to strike similar settlements, leaving lenders struggling to recover their entire dues, said Debopriyo Moulik, a Supreme Court lawyer in independent practice.

"This is very similar to the approach adopted in foreign countries where fines are an alternative to facing trial," Moulik said.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Gold's Performance and Market Sentiment

Gold prices held steady after a slight weekly loss, trading above $4,060 per ounce. The precious metal experienced volatility throughout the week, with a slight recovery on Friday following comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Williams indicated that there might be room for a reduction in borrowing costs in the near future, providing temporary relief for gold. However, despite the rebound, gold still ended the session lower, reflecting the market's caution as traders weighed the possibility of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious tone has left the market uncertain about the future direction of interest rates. While some Fed officials sounded hesitant about additional rate cuts, Williams' statement added some optimism. Traders have been closely monitoring Fed communications for clues on the central bank's next steps. However, due to a U.S. government shutdown that delayed crucial economic data, such as September retail sales and producer price data, traders are left without a clear picture. Upcoming economic reports, including jobless claims, are expected to provide more clarity on whether the Fed will proceed with a rate cut.

Futures traders are pricing in a 60% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, which could benefit gold as lower rates make bullion more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. Gold has been in a consolidation phase since hitting a record high above $4,380 an ounce in October, supported by ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as concerns about government fiscal policies.

Outlook for Gold and Market Predictions

Analysts expect gold to remain within a narrow range for the time being, with significant movements depending on the Federal Reserve’s actions and the broader economic data. Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group, noted that the rate-cut path is difficult to predict, which could lead to a less volatile environment for gold in the near term. Despite this, gold's overall performance remains strong, up approximately 55% this year due to global uncertainties.

In conclusion, gold's steady price reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the market as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's next move. While a potential rate cut could provide support for gold prices, the mixed signals from the Fed and delays in key economic data leave the market in a holding pattern. As global geopolitical and economic risks persist, gold remains an attractive hedge, but its near-term movement is likely to be shaped by the Fed's actions and upcoming economic reports.

Source: Bloomberg

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as markets revised expectations for the Fed December decision. More Federal Reserve officials are expressing doubts about the need for further rate cuts.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from the delayed jobs report: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. However, the USD remained strong. This review analyses the factors likely to impact the EURUSD rate in the upcoming week of November.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

Market focus: the EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure as the market continues to revise expectations for the Federal Reserve December decision. Committee members have become noticeably more cautious, and the delayed jobs report (119 thousand new jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%) confirmed Jerome Powell's view that a rate cut is not guaranteed. The FOMC minutes revealed serious disagreements, adding more uncertainty for the pair.
Current trend: the pair is holding near 1.1535 with a downward structure. The EURUSD rate is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1655 range, having failed to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Price remains in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with dynamic resistance around 1.1600. MACD stays in negative territory, with no reversal signal yet.
Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests sideways movement within the 1.1470–1.1655 range. A breakout below 1.1470 will intensify pressure and open the path to 1.1400. For the euro to recover, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and break through 1.1655 – only then will the short-term picture change.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair ended the week under pressure. The market continues to react to revised expectations for Fed policy, as more officials adopt a cautious stance.

Throughout the week, FOMC members expressed doubts about a December rate cut. Austan Goolsbee noted that the slowdown in inflation progress and the lack of data due to the shutdown make him uncertain about further easing. Beth Hammack warned that additional cuts could prolong high inflation and fuel risky market behaviour.

The publication of the delayed employment report intensified the fundamental backdrop: in September, the US economy added 119 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021. This mixed data supported Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's point that a December rate cut is far from assured.

The FOMC minutes also confirmed deep divisions within the committee, with many favouring a pause, while some are ready to support another cut in December if the situation allows.

Looking ahead, the Fed's comments and updated macroeconomic data, which are expected following the shutdown backlog, will set the market tone.

With three weeks to go before the December meeting, the diverging views among FOMC members create an uncertainty zone for the EURUSD pair.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair continues its downward trajectory. The instrument remains under pressure after several failed attempts to break above the 1.1655 zone, a key medium-term resistance level. Recent candlesticks are forming near 1.1535, reflecting weak buying momentum and a lack of confidence in a recovery.

Since early November, the pair has stabilised above the 1.1470 support level. This marks the lower boundary of the range, keeping sellers from pushing prices further down. The current phase appears to be consolidation between 1.1470 and 1.1655 following a decline, but the structure remains bearish. Prices are hovering in the lower half of Bollinger Bands, with the midline around 1.1600 acting as dynamic resistance.

MACD remains in negative territory and is gradually declining, signalling weakening buying pressure and continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold levels, indicating potential exhaustion, but sending no clear reversal yet. The market may stay near these lower levels for some time.

A breakout below the 1.1470 level would open the door to a deeper decline. For a recovery, the pair must consolidate above 1.1600 and return to 1.1655 – only then will the short-term structure change.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week near 1.1535, under pressure after repeated failed attempts to break above the key resistance level at 1.1655. Fundamentally, the pair is trading amid growing uncertainty as more Fed officials are questioning the appropriateness of a December rate cut, and the delayed jobs report widened the divergence in economic outlooks.

The technical picture now appears negative. The EURUSD pair is hovering in the lower part of the 1.1470–1.1655 range, trading below dynamic resistance near 1.1600. MACD remains in negative territory, showing weak buying interest, while the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but lacks a reversal impulse. The market structure remains bearish despite the local consolidation.

Buy scenario

Long positions become relevant only after a firm consolidation above 1.1600, with confirmation of a bullish reversal coming from a breakout above 1.1655.

Targets: 1.1720–1.1745, then 1.1800

Stop-loss: below 1.1535

Sell scenario

Short positions are preferred after a breakout below the 1.1470 level, confirming a renewed bearish trend.

Targets: 1.1400–1.1380, and if pressure increases, movement towards 1.1300 may follow.

Stop-loss: above 1.1600

Conclusion:

The baseline scenario is consolidation between 1.1470–1.1600, with an increased risk of retesting the lower boundary of the range if the dollar strengthens. To confirm a bullish reversal, the EURUSD pair must consolidate above 1.1655, which remains the key resistance area capping buyers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair will likely remain within a neutral range during 24–28 November, reflecting market caution ahead of the Fed's December meeting. Uncertainty due to delayed macroeconomic reports and the absence of clear signals from the Fed and ECB prevents the pair from forming a sustainable bullish impulse.

The technical structure has turned gloomier: the EURUSD pair is consolidating within the 1.1470–1.1600 range without breaking key levels. Indicators show weakening downward momentum, but the lack of consolidation above 1.1600 limits the recovery potential to 1.1680–1.1730. If the dollar strengthens and Fed rhetoric becomes more hawkish, the pair could retest 1.1450–1.1470. The baseline scenario for the week suggests sideways movement with a slight bullish bias if US data comes in weak.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

U.S. Economic Growth vs. Weak Job Creation

The U.S. economy has been experiencing strong economic growth, fueled by resilient consumer spending and substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Despite this, job creation has significantly slowed, with only around 62,000 jobs added per month in the three months leading up to September. This discrepancy between GDP expansion and weak job growth has created a complex scenario for the Federal Reserve, which has been tasked with ensuring price stability and a healthy labor market.

While businesses are heavily investing in AI and other technologies, these investments have not translated into an increased workforce. Instead, companies are cutting back on hiring in favor of reallocating resources towards technology. Despite record highs in the stock market, reflecting business optimism in AI, the labor market remains stagnant, causing concern among economists and policymakers.

The Role of Technology Investments and Policy Changes

A significant driver behind this paradox is the substantial investment in technology, particularly AI, which has grown within the economy. However, as companies focus on expanding their technological infrastructure, they are spending less on labor. This was evident in the second quarter of the year when business spending on information processing equipment and software contributed 4.4% to GDP. While this number is strong, it is still below the peak reached during the dot-com boom in 2000.

Additionally, policy changes—particularly those related to trade and immigration—have impacted both the supply and demand for labor. Since the beginning of the year, these changes have created uncertainty in the labor market, making businesses hesitant to hire. It remains uncertain whether rate cuts can counteract the negative impact of these policies and stimulate job growth.

The Risk of a Jobless Expansion

The situation of a “jobless expansion” presents serious risks for the economy. Economists warn that without job growth, the economy could face a downturn if any other negative factors come into play. A fragile labor market serves as a critical defense against recession, and if that defense weakens, it could jeopardize economic stability. As such, there are concerns about potential policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve if they continue cutting interest rates without a clear understanding of the labor market's trajectory.

Fed officials have expressed caution in their outlook, as the strong economic growth makes it difficult to justify further rate cuts unless inflation decreases faster than expected or the labor market weakens more rapidly. The dilemma of managing a strong economy while keeping job growth in check has put the U.S. economy in a precarious position, requiring careful monitoring and precise policy adjustments to prevent the risk of a recession.

In conclusion, the divergence between robust economic growth and weak job creation is a critical issue for U.S. policymakers. The Federal Reserve is facing a delicate balance in managing inflation while fostering a labor market that can support sustained economic growth. The paradox of a jobless expansion is not only challenging but also risky, as any economic misstep could destabilize the current growth trajectory and trigger a recession. How the Fed navigates this dilemma will be crucial in shaping the future of the U.S. economy.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Stock Market Overview and Recovery Signals

The U.S. stock market faced downward pressure last week, with both Nvidia's third-quarter results and a strong U.S. jobs report creating a tumultuous environment. Although Nvidia exceeded expectations with its results, the market remained wary of overvaluations, particularly within the AI sector, leading to a downturn. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.7%, and both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped approximately 2%. Additionally, a strong jobs report triggered market skepticism regarding the likelihood of an interest rate cut in December.

Despite these declines, there was a ray of hope. Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated that there was "room" for potential rate cuts, signaling a shift in policy that could benefit markets. This optimism was reflected in the futures market, where traders began to price in a higher probability of a December interest rate reduction, rising from 44.4% to about 70% by the end of the week. Moreover, Alphabet’s performance, driven by its new AI model, Gemini 3, demonstrated resilience amidst the overall AI sector slump, offering a promising outlook for the tech giant.

Corporate Activity and Global Shifts

In the realm of corporate strategy, Australian logistics company Qube Holdings received a $7.5 billion takeover proposal from Macquarie Asset Management, marking a significant development in the global logistics sector. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly's impressive growth led the company into the prestigious $1 trillion valuation club, signaling that market leadership extends beyond tech stocks and highlighting the increasing diversification within the market. This shift underscores the necessity of broadening investment strategies even within technology-driven sectors.

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns over a potential recession in 2026, asserting that the country is on track for strong, non-inflationary growth. However, he acknowledged some struggling sectors within the economy. This outlook contrasts with ongoing global inflation concerns, particularly in Singapore, where the consumer price index for October rose 1.2%, the highest since August 2024. This increase surpassed expectations and highlighted growing inflationary pressures in the region.

U.S.-China Tensions and Technological Advancements

The ongoing geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China also remains a significant factor influencing global markets. Despite the trade truce between the two superpowers, analysts predict that both nations will continue to prioritize the development of homegrown technologies. This focus on self-reliance in technology development is expected to present investment opportunities within the tech sector, particularly for Chinese firms. The tension further reinforces the need for companies to consider geopolitical risks and technological self-sufficiency when shaping future strategies.

In conclusion, while the U.S. stock market faced substantial challenges last week, signals of recovery and strategic shifts offer hope for the future. Diversification in market leadership, along with advancements in artificial intelligence and global trade tensions, will likely play key roles in shaping market dynamics moving forward. Investors and companies must adapt to these evolving conditions to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks effectively.

Source: CNBC

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Golden Gleam

Commodity

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in expectations for a December Fed rate cut to 30%, internal division within the FOMC, and the delay in official statistics due to the shutdown.

This review highlights the key factors that could influence gold's dynamics during 24–28 November 2025. The focus will be on the release of delayed US labour market data, the Fed's response to the risks of an economic slowdown, and the technical market structure after XAUUSD entered the 4,050–4,150 range.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

Weekly dynamics: gold (XAUUSD) ended the week below 4,070 USD per ounce. After a short-lived recovery, selling pressure resumed as the FOMC meeting minutes confirmed internal division. The delay in macroeconomic data due to the shutdown added further uncertainty
Support and resistance: key zones are concentrated in the 4,050–4,150 range, where the market is consolidating. The main support levels are located at 4,050 and 3,883, with resistance lying at 4,230–4,250 and the all-time high of 4,378. A move above 4,250 would open the way to 4,370–4,380, while a return below 4,050 would raise the risk of a drop to 3,883
Fundamentals: the FOMC minutes revealed a split among policymakers. The likelihood of a December rate cut dropped to 30%, down from 50% earlier. Employment and inflation data are distorted due to the shutdown. Gold is receiving mixed signals: on the one hand, soft data typically strengthens demand; on the other hand, improving risk appetite reduces safe-haven interest
Outlook: the baseline scenario is continued consolidation within the 4,050–4,150 range, with a potential short-term pullback due to weak oscillator momentum. For an upward move to resume, gold must consolidate above 4,250. The lack of catalysts and dollar strength could bring prices back to 4,050 and 3,883. The medium-term trend remains upward

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week with a decline below 4,070 USD per ounce. After two days of gains, downward pressure resumed as investors reassessed expectations for a December Fed policy easing.

The FOMC minutes revealed a deep division among committee members. Some favour supporting the labour market, while others see inflation risks as too high to allow for a quick rate cut. As a result, the probability of a December rate cut fell to 30%, down from 50% a day earlier.

An additional uncertainty factor is the delayed macroeconomic data due to the shutdown. The market was waiting for the September employment report. The October figures will not be released, and some data will be included in the November release.

Improved sentiment in equity markets also reduced safe-haven demand, intensifying the correction in gold. Overall, the week ended under pressure. The XAUUSD outlook now largely depends on the upcoming US labour market data and the Fed's response to it.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD shows a broad uptrend, which peaked near 4,378, an all-time resistance level from which prices sharply retreated. After a strong rally in September and October, gold entered a corrective phase, with candlesticks stabilising above the key support level at 3,883, forming a consolidation range roughly between 4,050–4,150.

Prices are trading in the upper section of the Bollinger Bands channel, but the middle band around 3,950–4,000 acts as nearby support. MACD is gradually declining, indicating waning bullish momentum, although it remains above the zero line. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving lower from overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback or sideways movement.

Overall, gold is holding above the key 3,883 level, maintaining a stable uptrend. However, the nearest resistance at 4,378 is still capping further upside. The 4,050–4,150 zone forms the current consolidation range.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains moderately positive despite the recent decline. Pressure on XAUUSD increased due to revised expectations for the Fed's December decision and internal FOMC division. The probability of a rate cut fell to 30%, but ongoing uncertainty over US data – delays due to the shutdown, missing October labour report, and weak private employment estimates – still supports safe-haven demand. Gold stabilised in the 4,050–4,150 range.

Buy scenario

Long positions are appropriate if prices remain above 4,050.

A breakout above resistance at 4,230–4,250 would open the way to retest the all-time high of 4,378, and a move above this level would expand targets toward the 4,400+ area. Bullish drivers include weak US macroeconomic data, dovish Fed commentary, and persistent uncertainty from delayed data.

Sell scenario

Short positions become relevant if prices break below 4,050. This would shift targets towards the 3,880–3,900 zone – the next strong demand area. Additional pressure may come from dollar strength, rising bond yields, and renewed risk appetite following the full resumption of statistical publications.

Conclusion:

Gold remains within the 4,050–4,150 range and continues to stabilise. The baseline scenario suggests consolidation above 4,050 with potential for a move back to 4,230–4,250. A breakout below 4,050 would signal a deeper correction. The medium-term trend remains upward.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week with losses and settled below 4,070 USD per ounce after a two-day rebound. Selling pressure intensified following a drop in the probability of a December Fed rate cut to 30% and the release of FOMC minutes. Additional uncertainty came from delays in key macroeconomic data due to the shutdown: the September employment report is late, and October figures will not be released. Improved market sentiment has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, gold remains in a consolidation phase after its recovery. The 4,050–4,150 range continues to define the short-term structure, with key support levels at 4,050 and 3,883. Resistance lies at 4,230–4,250 and the all-time high of 4,378. A breakout above 4,250 would be the first signal of a retest of the highs, while a dip below 4,050 increases the risk of a return to 3,900 without breaking the medium-term bullish trend.

Source: RoboForex

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

German business confidence unexpectedly dipped in November, a fresh sign of the challenge to overcome stagnation even as the government ramps up spending.

An expectations index by the Ifo institute dropped to 90.6 in November from 91.6 the previous month, a release Monday showed. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had predicted an unchanged reading. A measure of existing conditions edged higher.

"Companies assessed their current situation as somewhat more positive," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. "They have little faith that a recovery is coming anytime soon," however, with the outlook among manufacturers taking a "significant hit."

The data underscore doubts about the government's plan to restore growth by investing in infrastructure and defense. While the Bundesbank and most other forecasters expect output to expand in the fourth quarter after a volatile 2025, some have recently scaled back their predictions.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's economic advisers this month lowered their growth forecast for next year to less than 1%, while warning that the government must ensure outlays are targeted at additional and productive investments. Otherwise, the chance to address deep-seated challenges and restore longer-term growth could be squandered, they said.

Business surveys by S&P Global released last week showed business activity continued to grow in November, but at a slower pace than in the previous month. Manufacturing suffered a particular setback as new orders fell sharply.

The European Commission still said last week that it expects Germany to end its long period of stagnation next year. While US tariffs and global uncertainty will continue to pressure exporters, the economy should benefit from higher investments and private consumption next year, it said.