Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin may be boring this Juneteenth holiday, but market commentators are already preparing for BTC price conditions to get volatile again.

Key points:

Bitcoin lacks volatility catalysts thanks to a US public holiday and a Federal Reserve “nothingburger,” crypto market participants say.

US trade war deadlines begin to take center stage for risk assets.

BTC price action is still expected to exit its narrow range this month.

Bitcoin turned sluggish on June 19 as analysis picked out key crypto volatility dates. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_1

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

July, August bring new crypto downside risks

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD acting in a narrow range while failing to secure $105,000 as support.

A combination of geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with stagnant Federal Reserve policy, as well as the US Juneteenth holiday keeping stock markets closed, contributed to sideways BTC price action.

On the topic of the Fed, which opted to hold interest rates steady at its June 18 meeting, trading firm QCP Capital underscored officials’ unwillingness to move quickly.

“Officials reiterated their preference for a ‘wait and see’ approach, pending greater clarity on inflation’s trajectory,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets still favoring a rate cut in September. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_2

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_2

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

QCP instead focused on future deadlines in the ongoing US trade war as the likely source of crypto and risk-asset volatility.

“Negotiations remain stagnant, and leaks have become repetitive. Markets may now be less reactive to incremental tariff headlines,” it argued.

Key dates include July 14, when the EU is due to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Aug. 12, when the tariff pause on China expires.

“These upcoming dates could inject episodic downside volatility into risk assets,” QCP added, noting that a “stable outcome” in China’s case was still more likely.

Bitcoin shrugs off FOMC “nothingburger”

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin traders continued to wait for a volatility catalyst to shake up the range.

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades saw good odds of this occurring in the second half of June, or even this week.

“Still hanging around the $105K area which is the middle of the monthly range and right at the monthly open,” he told X followers in part of his latest analysis.

“Price has been compressing and it's clear that the market is waiting for a big move to occur. The statistics still heavily favor a further displacement this week and especially this month.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Daan Crpyto Trades/X

Fellow trader Skew joined those seeing a potential trip to take bid liquidity at around $103,000.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile, described the Fed event as a “nothingburger.”

“I suppose we'll see a test of $106K and breakout north in the coming days,” he predicted on the day. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_4

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_4

BTC/USD 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Crude oil futures rose more than 1% on Thursday, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israel’s military to intensify attacks against Iran.

U.S. crude oil was last up $1.36, or 1.81%, to $76.50 per barrel by 9:38 a.m. ET, while global benchmark Brent

added $1.10, or 1.43%, to $77.80 per barrel. Prices have gained more than 11% over the seven days since Israel began pounding Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

Netanyahu ordered Israel’s military to intensify attacks on “strategic targets” in Iran and “government targets” in the country’s capital, Tehran, Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a social media post. The goal of the strikes is to “undermine the ayatollah’s regime,” Katz said.

Israel’s decision to escalate its military operation against the Islamic Republic comes after an Iranian missile reportedly struck a major hospital in the southern city of Beersheba. Katz threatened Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the wake of the hospital strike.

Katz said Israel’s military “has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist,” referring to Khamenei.

President Donald Trump is still considering whether to order a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear program. “I may do it, I may not do it, I mean nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters Wednesday.

JPMorgan warned on Wednesday that regime change in a major oil producing country like Iran could have a profound impact on global oil prices. Iran is one of the top producers in OPEC.

“If history serves as a guide, further destabilization of Iran could lead to significantly higher oil prices sustained over extended periods,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients in a note.

Supply losses in the wake of a regime change “are challenging to recover quickly, further supporting elevated prices,” Kaneva said.

Source: cnbc

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Iran is maintaining crude oil supply by loading tankers one at a time and moving floating oil storage much closer to China, two vessel tracking firms told Reuters, as the country seeks to keep a key source of revenue while under attack from Israel.

The conflict between Iran and Israel which broke out last week poses a fresh hurdle for Iran, which uses a shadow fleet of tankers to conceal their origin and skirt U.S. sanctions reinstated in 2018 over its nuclear programme.

Crude exports from Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, mainly head to China. Loadings have so far been largely unaffected by the conflict with Israel, the trackers said.

Iran has loaded 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil so far this week, marking a five-week high, the latest data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

Energy infrastructure in both countries has been targeted in missile exchanges between the two countries, including the Haifa oil refinery in Israel and Iran's South Pars gas field, though Iran's major crude exporting facility at Kharg island has so far been spared.

All of the loadings from Kharg Island this week took place from the site's eastern jetty, said Homayoun Falakshai, head of crude oil analysis at tracking firm Kpler.

Kharg Island is situated deep inside the Persian Gulf, some 30 km off the Middle Eastern nation's south west coast.

"NIOC may believe it is less risky than the other main jetty located on the western side, in open waters," Falakshai said, referring to Iran's state oil firm National Iranian Oil Co.

Large oil tankers are now approaching Kharg Island one at a time, leaving the second jetty on the western side of the island unused for several days, with 15-16 more Iranian tankers scattered across the wider Persian Gulf area.

Iranian oil exports have been steady so far this year at around 1.7 million bpd, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, despite U.S. sanctions on Chinese customers since March.

Iran has moved part of its 40 million barrel floating storage fleet, which sits on 36 different vessels, much closer to China to minimise the impact of any disrupions on buyers, ship tracking firm Vortexa told Reuters.

Supplier. From 2026, the EU would ban imports under any new Russian gas and liquefied natural gas deals signed before the end

Around ten tankers, carrying approximately 8 million barrels of Iranian crude, are now stationed directly offshore China, Vortexa said, moving from the Singapore area where a further 20 million barrels are located.

The remaining 12 or so million barrels were in the Persian Gulf at the start of the month, Vortexa added, but their current location was not clear.

Having floating storage allows tankers to load crude oil without an immediate fixed destination to head to.

"Iran has been moving these barrels eastwards even without firm orders to strategically place the barrels closer to the end buyers in a time of heightened geopolitical risk," Vortexa's senior China market analyst Emma Li said

Moving barrels closer to China would offset the impact of up to two weeks of disrupted Iranian loadings, Vortexa added.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

Microsoft is reportedly ready to abandon ongoing negotiations with OpenAI regarding the future of their strategic partnership, according to the Financial Times, citing sources close to the matter. The talks, considered crucial for both companies, are stalling over the size of Microsoft's future stake in the ChatGPT creator.

The US tech giant is reportedly considering suspending talks if no compromise is reached on the contentious issues, while continuing to rely on its current commercial agreement with OpenAI, which guarantees access to its technologies until 2030.

This news comes as, according to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI executives recently considered accusing Microsoft of anti-competitive practices in their partnership. Both companies are also discussing a revision of the terms of Microsoft's initial investment, including its right to a share of future profits and the evolution of its stake in the company.

In a joint statement following these revelations, both companies sought to reassure the public: "Discussions are ongoing, and we remain optimistic about our ability to build together over the long term."

For Microsoft, the billions invested in OpenAI have played a key role in its rise in the field of artificial intelligence, against competitors such as Alphabet and Meta. However, the current impasse highlights the growing complexity of their relationship.

OpenAI, meanwhile, needs Microsoft's approval to complete its transformation into a non-profit public interest corporation, a status it believes will be more favorable for attracting new investors.

source : marketscreener

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

China is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing on Friday, a Reuters survey showed, after Beijing rolled out sweeping monetary easing measures a month earlier to aid the economy.

A framework agreement covering tariff rates between Washington and Beijing has raised optimism the world's two largest economies can get business activity back on track, reducing the urgency for additional easing measures.

The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks' best clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

In a Reuters survey of 20 market watchers conducted this week, all respondents expected both the one-year and five-year LPRs to remain steady.

Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.

Last month, China lowered LPRs for the first time since October, while major state banks lowered deposit rates as authorities cut borrowing costs to help buffer the economy from the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war.

Market participants said key rates now move in tandem with the seven-day reverse repo rate, which serves as the main policy rate.

"That means any adjustment to the LPR should follow changes to the seven-day reverse repo rate," said a trader at a brokerage, noting it will also take some time to gauge the impact of stimulus measures introduced in May.

However, a string of disappointing economic data, including slower-than-expected credit growth and deepening deflationary pressure, has underscored the need for more stimulus.

"Near-term economic stabilisation is dependent on reaching a trade deal with the U.S., which will take precedence over more policy stimulus," said Ho Woei Chen, economist at UOB.

Chen expects the seven-day reverse repo rate to be reduced by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter of this year and guide LPRs to lower by the same margin.

"The prospect of another 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) remains in place," she said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

Gold, Global Stocks Fall Amid Israel, Iran Escalation Fears. Oil Prices Are Rising.

With U.S. markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, global investors were weighing up a potential escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.

----

Bank of England Mirrors Fed and Stands Pat

Central banks are facing a new challenge as tensions between Israel and Iran threaten to push energy prices and inflation higher.

----

Trump Privately Approved of Attack Plans for Iran but Has Withheld Final Order

The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel's strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

----

Foreign Investment Faces Third Year of Decline, UN Warns

Overseas investment by businesses around the world is at risk of falling for a third straight year as rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions freeze big decisions about where to locate factories, the UN warned.

----

ECB's Next Move Most Likely to Be a Rate Cut, Villeroy Says

Unless the eurozone faces a major new shock such as an escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East, the ECB is more likely to lower its key interest rate over the next six months than raise it, the head of the Bank of France said Thursday.

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Swiss Central Bank Cuts Rate to Deter Search for Safe Haven

Switzerland cut rates to zero to rein in the rapidly appreciating franc, which has acted as a safe haven for investors given raised concerns over U.S. trade policy and Middle East tensions.

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Turkish Central Bank Stands Pat on Rates Despite Easing Inflation

The bank left its one-week repo rate at 46% as a means to counter volatile swings in the lira that followed the dramatic arrest and imprisonment of a prominent opposition politician, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

----

The Fed Waits for the Dust to Settle on Tariffs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is engaged in a balancing act: projecting confidence while admitting "we don't know" what comes next.

----

China's Real Estate Recovery Is Mixed. These Cities Are Bouncing Back.

Luxury homes in Shanghai are selling but prices are still falling in smaller cities.

----

Goldman's top economist expects Trump won't raise tariffs on other countries on July 9

Will there be a comeback for the "reciprocal" tariffs that President Trump unveiled at his "liberation day" event on April 2? Probably not, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.

----

How 'gold fatigue' has helped drive platinum prices up 44% this year

Platinum has far outpaced its metals peers for the month and year to date as supplies of the commodity are expected to fall short of demand for a third straight year. But that's not the only reason for platinum's stellar price performance.

----

Brazil's Central Bank Extends Aggressive Hiking, Indicates Potential Pause

The bank's monetary committee, known as Copom, raised the Selic benchmark rate to 15% from 14.75%. It is now at its highest level since May 2006.

----

Foreign Investors Sold $41 Billion in Treasuries After Trump Unveiled Tariffs

In April, foreigners sold a net $40.8 billion of U.S. notes and bonds that had more than one year to maturity.

----

Stablecoin Legislation Will Juice Demand for Treasurys-to a Point

Issuers of digital currencies need Treasury bills for their reserves, but analysts say the consequences are uncertain.

source : morningstar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The U.S. has said it is ready to strike Iran unless it completely abandons its nuclear programme, something Iran has vowed it would not do.

Developments point to elevated geopolitical risks, and stock markets are bleeding value. The New Zealand Dollar is positively correlated with stocks, meaning the drawdown is weighing heavily.

The New Zealand-U.S. Dollar exchange rate is lower by 0.80% on the day at 0.5981, the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is higher by 0.78% at 2.2435, and the Euro to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate is up 0.65% at 1.9174.

For markets, the key issue here is oil and how Iran will respond in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the chokepoint between the Saudi peninsula and Iran, where Iran could flex some muscle by halting shipping.

Given that significant amounts of oil flow from the Middle East to global markets through this passage, markets are wary, and oil prices are elevated.

New Zealand Dollar Slumps on War Fears, But Good News on the Home Front_1

Above: Brent crude oil prices have surged.

External drivers are therefore at the forefront, but NZD will take cheer from news the economy expanded by a bigger margin than was expected in the first quarter.

New Zealand GDP for Q1 2025 grew 0.8% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter of the year, above market expectations for 0.7% and ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 0.4% forecast.

Given the stronger GDP data, economists at ASB expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold in July.

"Robust business services and manufacturing drove growth. Kiwi spending looks less shy, with demand for experiential services apparent (but not travel though). Government spending is still contributing a lot to growth," says Wesley Tanuvasa, Economist at ASB in Auckland.

The positive outcome in the annual figure masks a difficult year for New Zealand, with the annual rate showing the economy contracted 0.7% in the year to the first quarter.

The RBNZ has slashed rates in response to the economic contraction, and signs of growth and the prospect of more benign inflation mean it can now consider a pause.

"Stronger GDP means the RBNZ has scope to pause in July – we think the Bank will," says Tanuvasa.

Such a development means interest rates turn from a headwind to a tailwind for the NZ Dollar, pointing to a more forceful recovery in H2, provided the Iran-Israel conflict dies down and President Donald Trump waters down his tariff agenda.