Gold Surges to New Record as Investors Eye U.S. Inflation Data

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold climbed to a fresh record above $3,719 per ounce as traders positioned ahead of key U.S. inflation figures that could reinforce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts....

New record for gold and silver’s rally

Gold prices advanced to $3,719.95 per ounce on Monday, surpassing last week’s peak and setting a new all-time record. The move came as the market continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates for the first time since December, a shift that immediately boosted non-yielding assets such as bullion. Silver also extended its momentum, reaching its highest level in more than nine years, with a gain of 2.35%. Platinum and palladium followed suit, rising 0.99% and 1.62% respectively, suggesting broad strength across the precious metals complex.

The appreciation of gold is closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. A cut in interest rates directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, which unlike bonds or savings accounts does not generate interest. This creates a causal link between rate reductions and increased attractiveness of bullion, leading investors to rebalance portfolios toward precious metals. Market optimism about further easing explains why gold continues to set records, even after last week’s rally.

Market sentiment and inflation outlook

Investor attention is now shifting toward upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could provide a clearer signal about the central bank’s next moves. If inflation shows signs of cooling, it would strengthen the case for additional rate cuts, which in turn could provide further support for gold prices. While current price action reflects immediate optimism, the sustainability of this rally will depend on whether economic data confirm the path toward looser monetary conditions.

The simultaneous rise in silver, platinum, and palladium highlights that this rally is not isolated to gold alone but is part of a broader trend of investors diversifying into alternative stores of value. Silver’s nine-year high underscores how secondary precious metals can benefit both from industrial demand and safe-haven flows. If the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle and inflation moderates, the momentum across the sector could persist.

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Pepperstone

Economic

Commodity

Forex

Over the past week, gold briefly pulled back before resuming its upward momentum, surpassing Wednesday's intraday high of $3,707 to reach fresh all-time highs. The market's expectation of two additional rate cuts this year remains the core driver for gold's rally, while ongoing central bank purchases provide strong support. Although recent US-China talks temporarily eased trade concerns, the US short-term budget standoff and ongoing geopolitical developments continue to maintain a risk premium for gold.

This week, a series of Fed officials' speeches, along with Friday's US core PCE data release, may trigger short-term volatility for gold.

Technical Snapshot: Buying on Dips Remains the Preferred Strategy

On the XAUUSD daily chart, gold briefly broke above the critical psychological level of $3,700 last week before entering a high-level consolidation phase. Early-week gains were offset by a midweek short-squeeze, with prices retreating fully from Wednesday to Thursday. However, the pullback did not extend, bottoming near $3,630. Bulls subsequently stepped in to cover positions, and gold has now reclaimed $3,700, testing new highs.

Technically, two key points stand out: First, the previous breakout failed to hold primarily due to news flow dynamics and short-term arbitrage (profit-taking and options hedging). Second, given the current liquidity and policy expectations, pullbacks are generally seen as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals - i.e., the market favors “buying the dip.”Currently, $3,700 is a critical short-term level. A stable close above this point would likely turn it into strong support, opening the door for a further move toward $3,750. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies, the consolidation low since September 9 around $3,630 would become the key defensive level.

Rate-Cut Expectations Remain the Main Driver, Central Banks Fuel Demand

Gold's upside remains primarily driven by expectations around Fed monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently prices in a roughly 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut in October, and nearly an 80% probability of another cut in December. This aligns with the Fed's updated dot plot, which signals roughly 50bp of additional easing priced in for the remainder of the year, supporting non-yielding assets such as gold.

Meanwhile, the extremely dovish stance of new Fed governor Miran, combined with concerns about the Fed's independence, adds to market uncertainty regarding policy credibility, providing additional support for gold.

Gold's buying momentum, however, is not solely reliant on Fed rate cut expectations. Physical demand and continued official purchases also provide strong long-term support. In China, for example, the central bank reported purchases of just 20.8 tons from January to July 2025, while UK customs data shows imports of roughly 137 tons during the same period, highlighting a significant gap between official statistics and actual flows. This indicates robust demand through London and other channels, with quotas posing no material constraint.

At the same time, India's gold premiums have risen to nearly a 10-month high, reflecting strong retail and seasonal demand.

On the investment side, SPDR Gold ETF added approximately 18.9 tons in a single day on September 19, pushing total holdings to 994.56 tons, the highest level this year. This reflects not only direct capital demand but also strong market confidence in gold's safe-haven appeal.

Geopolitics and Short-Term Volatility

Geopolitical factors are more mixed. On one hand, last week's US-China leadership call eased short-term trade-related buying pressure. On the other hand, the US Senate's rejection of a short-term spending bill, rising government shutdown risks, and tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, Eastern Europe, and the Caribbean continue to inject uncertainty premiums into gold.Overall, Fed rate-cut expectations remain the primary driver of gold, while sustained global central bank purchases establish a strong longer-term floor. Together, these factors reinforce the bullish advantage in the current environment.

In the short term, while gold may face some profit-taking or temporary USD rebounds, the overall trend remains upward. Buying on dips remains the prevailing strategy, with traders advised to consider longer-term capital flows and physical demand as underlying support while monitoring short-term volatility for entry opportunities.

Focus on Fed Speeches and Core PCE Data

This week, 18 Fed officials are scheduled to speak. Chair Powell will appear on Tuesday, September 23, with markets expecting clearer policy signals. New governor Miran may reiterate an extremely dovish stance, emphasizing “150bp of cuts this year with limited recession risk,” potentially signaling future aspirations for the chairmanship. Any dovish indications could further support gold bulls.

Friday, September 26, will bring the release of core PCE inflation, with market expectations at 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, both slightly above prior readings.

With policy focus currently skewed toward employment, weakening labor data is likely to influence market expectations for rate cuts more than minor inflation fluctuations. Therefore, unless inflation surprises significantly, Fed decisions are unlikely to be materially affected, and gold may only see short-term volatility as a result.

Source: Pepperstone

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FXOpen

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.6650. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5845.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

● The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above 0.6680 against the US Dollar.

● There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6610 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.

● NZD/USD declined steadily from 0.6000 and traded below 0.5900.

● There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5860 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear 0.6700. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below 0.6650 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6600. A low was formed at 0.6581 and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6706 swing high to the 0.6581 low.On the upside, immediate resistance is near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.6610 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major hurdle for the bulls could be near 0.6645 and the 50% Fib retracement.

The main selling point could be 0.6660, above which the price could rise toward 0.6690. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6700. A close above 0.6700 could start another steady increase in the near term. In the stated case, the next key resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6750.On the downside, initial support is near 0.6580. The next area of interest might be 0.6550. If there is a downside break below 0.6550, the pair could extend its decline. The next target for the bears might be 0.6500. Any more losses might send the pair toward 0.6420.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6000 zone. The New Zealand Dollar moved down and traded below 0.5950 against the US Dollar.

The pair settled below 0.5920 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested 0.5845 and is currently consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 0.5860.If the pair recovers, it could face hurdles near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6007 swing high to the 0.5846 low at 0.5885 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The next major barrier is at 0.5925 since it coincides with the 50% Fib retracement. If there is a move above 0.5925, the pair could rise toward 0.5945. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 0.5990 in the coming days.On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.5845 level. The next major stop for the bears might be 0.5800. If there is a downside break below 0.5800, the pair could extend its decline toward 0.5750. The main target for the bears could be 0.5720.

Source: FXOpen

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Gerik

Economic

Steady Market Response Despite Policy Shock

Shares of major U.S. technology companies, including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, showed resilience in Frankfurt trading on Monday despite a sudden and significant visa policy proposal announced by the Trump administration. The policy, revealed last Friday, would mandate companies to pay $100,000 annually for each H-1B visa an exponential increase from the current multi-stage fee structure that typically costs only a few thousand dollars in total.

This policy shift, positioned as part of the administration’s stricter immigration strategy, triggered immediate concern among firms with a high dependency on international talent, especially in tech and finance. Internal advisories were swiftly issued by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Goldman Sachs, instructing staff to remain in the United States or promptly return from abroad, highlighting the practical disruptions caused by the announcement.

Magnificent 7 Show Minor Volatility

The so-called “Magnificent 7” group of tech behemoths Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla displayed only mild price movements in European trading. Their stock prices ranged from a slight dip of 0.2% to a modest rise of 1.1%, indicating that investors have yet to price in the full impact of the visa fee proposal, or are waiting for policy confirmation and potential legal challenges.

This market behavior may suggest a correlation rather than a direct causality between the policy shock and stock performance, especially as some investors may view this as a political maneuver unlikely to gain full legislative traction. Nevertheless, uncertainty around operational costs and workforce planning could weigh more heavily on tech valuations in the coming quarters if the proposal gains momentum.

H-1B Visa Reliance Highlights Structural Exposure

The figures underscore the degree to which major tech firms depend on the H-1B visa system to source global talent. In just the first half of 2025, Amazon and its cloud division AWS secured more than 12,000 visa approvals. Microsoft and Meta followed with over 5,000 each. These numbers reflect not only the operational scale of these companies but also their vulnerability to regulatory changes targeting foreign labor.

Under the current rules, entering the H-1B lottery involves only a nominal fee, with further payments only due upon approval often not exceeding a few thousand dollars. A shift to a flat $100,000 annual fee would not only raise direct costs dramatically but may also deter applications and disrupt long-term hiring pipelines.

Outlook and Broader Implications

If implemented, the visa fee proposal would fundamentally alter cost-benefit analyses for hiring foreign professionals, potentially pushing firms to automate more roles, relocate operations, or increase domestic hiring although the latter may be limited by existing skills gaps.

It remains unclear whether the announcement is a negotiating tactic or a precursor to actual policy implementation. However, the announcement already demonstrates how political decisions especially those tied to immigration can introduce volatility into corporate planning and investor sentiment, even if not immediately reflected in market prices.

While the immediate market response appears muted, the long-term effects could be more pronounced, depending on how the policy evolves and whether it catalyzes broader restrictions on skilled migration. As such, this episode illustrates a complex interplay between political signaling and investor confidence in sectors where global mobility and human capital remain vital.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

Markets

A phone call between US president Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping supported the bulls on Friday. The sale of TikTok’s US operations to an American company was the main point but Trump said both made progress on a variety of issues including “Trade, Fentanyl, the need to bring the War between Russia and Ukraine to an end”. The US president added that he would meet Xi in person on the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. The main indices on Wall Street all hit new records. The US dollar extended its post-Fed rebound into a third day. DXY rose to 97.64, EUR/USD drifted gradually but steadily towards the mid 1.17-1.18 area. The dollar’s (for now still) minor comeback comes along with some short-term bottoming out of the 2-year yield. Net daily changes in US rates on Friday varied between 0.8-2.2 bps. German bonds slightly underperformed. Intra-EMU spreads narrowed. France’s 10-yr yield (and therefore spread as well) finished the week the way it started: slightly higher than Italy. The remarkable swap has been years in the making. Italy’s rating upgrade (see below), along with southern peers including Portugal and Spain, are testament to the changing fiscal pecking order. Gilts were the laggards. The long end of the UK curve was particularly vulnerable (30-yr +5.2 bps). August budget deficit figures came in much higher than the Office of Budget Responsibility expected. This independent budget watchdog assesses the government performance against its self-imposed fiscal rules so Friday’s numbers are yet another blow for UK finance minister Reeves going into November’s Autumn Budget. Sterling was among the weaker performers with EUR/GBP closing north of 0.87 for the first time since early August. Cable (GBP/USD) forfeited the 1.35 handle.

The new trading weeks kicks off today with a series of central bank speeches, ranging from Bailey and chief economist Pill in the UK over ECB’s Lane and Nagel in the euro area to several Fed members (NY’s Williams, board member Miran) that are to address the economy and monetary policy. PMI’s are scheduled for release tomorrow along with Fed’s Powell offering his view on the economic outlook. PCE deflators, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are printed on Friday. A slew of central bank meetings are scattered across the week with Hungary and Sweden on tap Tuesday, the Czech Republic Wednesday and Switzerland the day after.

News & Views

Rating agency Fitch raised Italy’s credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook. The upgrade reflects increased confidence in Italy’s fiscal trajectory, a stable political environment, ongoing reform momentum and reduced external imbalances. Fitch expects a continued gradual deficit reduction in 2025-2027, supported by structural improvements on the revenue side and strict expenditure control. They expect a deficit ratio of 3.1% of GDP, below the official 3.3% target. The government’s aim is bring it down to 2.6% in 2027 and under 2% by 2029. The primary surplus is expected to rise from 0.7% of GDP this year to 2.4% in 2029, supported by reform implementation. Fitch forecasts the debt ratio to increase modestly from 135.3% of GDP to 137.5% in 2026, before falling back towards 134% by 2030. One of Italy’s weaker points remains its low growth potential. The rating agency estimates growth of 0.6% this year and an average of 0.8% in 2026-2027. Domestic demand, particularly investment, will be a key driver of short-term growth, offsetting weakness in the external sector. Italian BTP’s have been performing strongly this year with the 10y swapspread narrowing from a YtD top at 130 bps to 83 bps currently and trading more and more in line with semi-core peers.

RBA governor Bullock sounded slightly more hawkish this morning in a testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak of 7.8% in 2022 and is now within the 2-3% target range. Labour market conditions are close to full employment. Since the August meeting, domestic data have been broadly in line with the Australian central bank’s expectations or if anything slightly stronger. The Board will discuss this and other developments at their meeting next week. Markets expect a stable policy rate (3.6%), but slightly reduced bets on a final rate cut at the November meeting (75% from 95%). Australian bond yields add 3-4 bps across the curve this morning while AUD/USD treads water.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Outokumpu, the largest stainless steel producer in Europe, has warned that U.S. import tariffs of up to 50% are severely impacting demand, with one-third of companies surveyed delaying or halting orders, and over half reassessing their procurement strategies. The announcement underscores the widening disruptions to global industrial supply chains triggered by shifting trade policies.

CEO Kati ter Horst told Reuters that the sudden addition of hundreds of machinery and equipment derivatives to the U.S. tariff list in August has caused significant uncertainty among buyers, further complicating planning for manufacturers that rely on stainless steel. This shift has already led a third of firms to switch suppliers by May, reflecting the extent of market dislocation.

Amid this turbulence, Outokumpu is looking inward to innovation and climate goals. The firm is developing a low-emission stainless alloy with 99% chromium content, made possible by operating Europe and North America’s only chromium mine. A pilot plant is underway to scale production from 1 kilogram to 1 ton daily, marking a major step toward sustainable steel solutions.

With green steel initiatives across Europe stalled by weak demand and soaring energy costs, the European Union is expected to revise import quotas and introduce new trade defense mechanisms including an earlier implementation of replacements for expiring safeguard measures. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is also poised to impose carbon-cost penalties on high-emission imports, incentivizing cleaner production.

Despite short-term turbulence, Outokumpu maintains a positive long-term outlook, driven by global efforts to cut corrosion costs (estimated at $2.5 trillion annually) and meet climate targets. Stainless steel’s strength, durability, and recyclability alongside rising defense spending are expected to keep demand resilient.

As the EU prepares for decisive action in October, the interplay between U.S. tariffs, EU policy shifts, and decarbonization efforts will define the next chapter for the stainless steel industry.

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Gerik

Economic

In a move signaling a thaw in bilateral trade relations, Turkey has officially ended the additional tariffs it previously imposed on a range of U.S.-origin products, as confirmed by the country’s Trade Ministry and published in the Official Gazette on Monday.

The decision applies to a wide array of imports, including passenger vehicles, fruits, rice, tobacco, alcoholic beverages, solid fuels, and various chemical products. These tariffs were initially levied as part of retaliatory measures in past trade disputes, and their removal reflects a recalibration of Turkey’s foreign trade strategy.

While the ministry did not specify whether the removal was in response to recent U.S. actions or broader trade negotiations, the timing suggests an effort to ease tensions and encourage reciprocal moves from Washington, particularly amid global uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy under the Trump administration.

The rollback may help boost import volumes and reduce inflationary pressure on Turkish consumers, as some of the affected goods such as fuel and food items have wide consumption across domestic markets.

Analysts will be watching closely to see whether the U.S. reciprocates with trade leniencies or improved bilateral agreements, especially as Turkey navigates a fragile economic recovery and seeks to stabilize relations with key trade partners.