Gold News: Price Holds Key Support As 87% Fed Cut Odds Fuel Bullish Setup

Commodity

Summary:

Spot gold holds above $4,133.95 support as 87% Fed cut odds and weak dollar set up potential breakout through $4,264.70 toward record highs this week.

Gold Holds Above Key Support as Markets Wait for Fed Clues

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is grinding higher Tuesday, trading just above the short-term retracement zone between $4,133.95 and $4,192.36. That's the final line of defense before the 50-day moving average at $4,058.26 — and as long as that holds, the uptrend's still in play.

The two-day consolidation tells you what you need to know: traders are positioned, but nobody's pressing. They're waiting for the catalyst that breaks this week's high at $4,264.70. After that, it's a straight shot at the record at $4,381.44.

The setup is clean. Buyers have been stepping in on dips all year, and right now they're deciding whether to chase the breakout or wait for one more pullback. With the 50-day still rising, the bias is to buy weakness — but the real move likely comes from the data, not the chart.

At 12:27 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4207.87, up $2.20 or +0.05%.

Fed Cut Odds Jump, Treasury Yields Drift Lower

Markets are pricing an 87% chance of a December rate cut, up sharply from 30% just two weeks ago. That shift — driven by weaker jobs data and dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller — is doing the heavy lifting for gold right now.

Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve. The 10-year is down to 4.063%, the 2-year at 3.49%. Not a collapse, but enough to keep non-yielding assets like gold supported. Lower rates mean lower opportunity cost, and that's been the theme all year.

The question now is whether this week's data — ADP employment Wednesday, ISM Services later, and the delayed September PCE on Friday — confirms the Fed's dovish tilt or throws a wrench in it. If the numbers come in soft, gold could punch through resistance. If they surprise hot, the dip-buyers get their chance.

Dollar Slides for Ninth Straight Session

The dollar's on pace for its ninth consecutive daily loss, down 0.15% to 99.10 on the index. That's a nearly 9% drop for the year, and it's all about rate expectations. The more the Fed cuts, the less reason there is to hold dollars — especially when the euro's catching a bid on hopes of a Ukraine peace deal and the yen's firming on Bank of Japan rate hike talk.

Fed Chair uncertainty isn't helping. Trump's expected to announce his pick for Jerome Powell's replacement early next year, and the market's already pricing in a "shadow Fed chair" problem — two voices on policy when traders need one. That kind of noise usually weakens the dollar, and it's another tailwind for gold.

Gold Poised for Breakout — But Waiting on the Data

Gold's holding support, the Fed's dovish, and the dollar's weak. The setup favors the bulls, but the breakout isn't confirmed yet. This week's data will either push gold through $4,264.70 toward the record — or give dip-buyers one more entry before year-end. Either way, the 50-day moving average is the line that matters. As long as that holds, buyers have the upper hand.

Source: FX Empire

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Warren Takunda

Economic

European and Asian shares were mixed Wednesday after stocks on Wall Street held steadier as both bond yields and bitcoin stabilized.

In early European trading, Germany’s DAX picked up 0.4% to 23,813.38, while the CAC 40 in Paris climbed 0.3% to 8,100.09. Britain’s FTSE 100 was unchanged at 9,702.28.

The future for the S&P 500 edged 0.1% higher while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.2% higher.

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.1% to 49,864.68 on big gains for technology shares like Tokyo Electron, which jumped 4.7%. Adventest, a maker of computer chip testing equipment, surged 5.3%.

Technology and telecoms giant SoftBank Group Corp. surged 6.4% following reports that its founder, Masayoshi Son, regretted having to sell shares in computer chip maker Nvidia to help pay for other investments. The company’s share price sank after it announced last month that it had sold the shares for $5.8 billion.

South Korea’s Kospi also got a lift from tech shares, gaining 1% to 4,036.30. Shares in Samsung Electronics, the country’s biggest company, rose 1.1%.

But Chinese markets declined following the release of data showing weaker factory activity.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3% to 25,760.73, while the Shanghai Composite index shed 0.5% to 3,878.00.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.2% higher, to 8,595.20.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.6%.

The U.S. economy has been holding up overall, but that’s masking sharp divisions beneath the surface. Lower-income households are struggling with higher prices while richer households are benefiting from a stock market that’s within 1% of its all-time high set in late October.

In the bond market, Treasury yields calmed following their jumps the day before. The 10-year yield edged down to 4.08% from 4.09% late Monday, while the two-year yield eased to 3.51% from 3.54%.

Higher yields can drag prices lower for all kinds of investments, and those seen as the most expensive can take the biggest hit.

Monday’s climb in Treasury yields came after the governor of the Bank of Japan hinted that it may raise interest rates there soon. But hopes are still high that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate when it meets in Washington next week.

The Japanese central bank is likely to raise its benchmark rate at its Dec. 19 meeting, Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank in Singapore, because failing to do so could lead investors to sell off Japanese yen.

“Yet, delivering a ‘done deal’ hike may perversely deny any appreciable JPY (Japanese yen) gains, whilst boosting long-end yields,” he said in a report.

The Fed has already cut its overnight interest rate twice this year in hopes of shoring up a slowing job market. But lower rates can fan inflation, which has stubbornly remained above its 2% target.

Complicating things is the U.S. government’s earlier shutdown, which delayed reports on the job market and other areas of the economy.

In other dealings early Wednesday, bitcoin, which tumbled below $85,000 on Monday as bond yields worldwide marched higher, rose to $93,330.

U.S. benchmark crude oil rose 71 cents to $59.35 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 67 cents to $63.12 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 155.65 Japanese yen from 155.87 yen. The euro rose to $1.1645 from $1.1626.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Economic

Bond

Traders are piling into bets that a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data this month will support Donald Trump’s calls for lower interest rates.

In the US futures market, demand is building for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks perceived outcomes of Fed interest rate decisions. The wagers reflect the potential for monetary policy easing to gather pace after chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. The June 17 announcement will be the first under a new central bank chief.

The new positions started to build after White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to succeed Powell. Trump said Tuesday that the race is “down to one” while referring to Hassett as a “potential Fed chair” during a cabinet meeting. He said he would announce his decision early next year.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_1

The announcement “will create a ‘shadow Fed chair’,” Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, wrote this week. “This could complicate the Fed’s ability to communicate monetary policy and could create some confusion for markets at a time when they need clarity.”

Traders in the leveraged futures market are already gaming out the scenarios with a huge buyer emerging Monday in one SOFR futures fly — the largest trade seen in that particular structure in more than a year. Recent sessions have also seen elevated activity in 3-, 6- and 12-month SOFR spreads, as traders look to target more rate cuts.

Delayed Data

It’s not just the next Fed chair announcement driving activity across futures spreads. Goldman Sachs strategists are looking to hedge ahead of the November labor market data due Dec. 16, just before the January policy meeting. The data, delayed by the US government shutdown, could spur more dovish bets if they confirm recent signs of softening.

“We continue to see greater asymmetry for the front-end to pull forward cuts given the trend in labor market slack measures,” strategists including George Cole said in a Nov. 28 note.

They favor positions benefiting from a curve steepening by targeting short-dated futures via SOFR Dec26/Dec27 spreads and further out the curve with conditional 2s10s bull steepeners. These bets will gather further traction if Hassett is confirmed as the next Fed chair.

Wagers on a dovish policy shift and a ramp-up in December rate-cut odds pushed 10-year Treasury yields below the 4% mark last week. US Treasuries held marginal gains on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield slipping one basis point to 4.08%. That’s down from 4.11% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two weeks.

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said that cutting rates while inflation is still above the Fed’s target could drive yields on long-end Treasuries higher, even as short-term rates fall.

“If Hassett is confirmed, the most likely outcome is bear steepening,” said McIntyre. “I think of myself as part of the bond vigilantes. My job is to send a message to the administration. Do we need to send that message now? It’s too early to say. For me, it’s still wait-and-see.”

Here’s a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market:

JPMorgan Survey

For the week ending Dec. 1, investor long positions dropped nine percentage points, with shorts rising 3 percentage points. As a result, the net long position dropped to the fewest since Nov. 3.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_2

New Risk in SOFR Options

In SOFR options out to the Jun26 tenor, activity has focused around the 96.3125 strike following flows over the past week for new risk including a buyer of the SFRZ5 96.25/96.3125 call spreads and SFRZ5 96.3125/96.375 call spreads. Flows also included a buyer of SFRZ5 96.3125/96.375 2x1 put spreads as traders look to position around the Dec. 10 policy meeting, where currently around 22 basis points of rate cuts are priced.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_3

In SOFR options across tenors out to the Jun26 contracts, the 96.25 strike remains the most populated due to continued demand for upside call structures involving the level in Dec25 options. There’s also a large amount of open interest in the Dec25 96.50 and Dec25 96.375 calls. For large outstanding put structures, the Dec25 96.25 and Dec25 96.1875 put strikes are significantly populated.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_4

Treasury Options Premium

The premium paid on options to hedge Treasuries over the past week has continued to drift around neutral. Premium in the front and intermediates of the futures strip continues to slightly favor calls over puts, indicating traders paying more to hedge a Treasuries rally in the front end and belly of the curve versus a selloff.

Trader Bets Swell on Trump-Backed Fed, Data Stoking US Rate Cuts_5

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Michelle

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum (ETH) is trading at around $3,065, with a 24-hour trading volume of $30 billion. The price has climbed 9% in the last day and 4% over the past week.

ETH is now sitting near a key level that could decide its short-term direction, as traders keep a close eye on $2,800.

$2,800 Support May Define the Next Trend

Crypto analyst CryptosRus said,

"$ETH is sitting right on $2,800, one of the biggest support zones on the chart." they added, "Hold it → room back to $3,300 and even $3,900. Lose it → volatility at $2,500 HVN, then a real shot at $2,300."

ETH has rebounded after recent weakness, but it remains close to this key zone. Price charts show a bullish candle on the daily close, though a clear breakout is still needed. Traders are watching the higher low trendline for confirmation of a push toward $3,700. For now, short-term setups on smaller timeframes are driving activity.

High Leverage Meets Lower Open Interest

Data from Binance shows Ethereum's leverage ratio at an all-time high of 0.57, according to CryptoOnchain. This means many traders are using borrowed funds. At the same time, open interest has dropped to $6.6 billion, which suggests "a lot of froth already flushed out."

Notably, this creates a mixed setup. High leverage increases risk, while the drop in open interest shows that many weaker positions may have already been cleared. Traders are warning that the current build-up could lead to sudden price moves if the market reacts sharply near current levels.

Short-Term Levels and Chart Patterns

CRYPTOWZRD shared that the $3,055 level is now an important intraday resistance. They explained that ETH recovered well but may be forming a double-top.

"A bearish pullback and then a bullish move again will offer a quality long setup, otherwise there may be a fake-out," they said.

The next lower support is around $2,880. If the asset holds there and finds buyers, traders may look for long entries.

On higher timeframes, ETH is forming a bullish wedge and inverse head-and-shoulders, based on recent analysis reported by CryptoPotato. These patterns are being tracked by traders expecting a breakout above $4,500.

Meanwhile, institutional buying is also active. BitMine, linked to Tom Lee, recently purchased over 30,000 ETH—worth close to $92 million. This shows growing interest from larger players, even as the market tests a critical zone.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Oil rose as traders weighed talks between the US and Russia that have so far failed to end the war in Ukraine, while attacks on Moscow’s energy assets continued.

Brent traded near $63, though prices have been lacking direction in recent days. The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, though the sides failed to reach agreement on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. European defense stocks rose and Ukrainian bonds fell.

The talks came against the backdrop of another attack on a Russia-linked ship, but it remains unclear who carried out the strike. Putin warned that Moscow may consider striking the vessels of countries supporting Ukraine if hits on the nation’s fleet do not stop, state-run Rossiya 24 TV channel reported.

Oil Gains as Traders Weigh the Next Steps in Russia-Ukraine War_1

“The Brent crude price remained roughly unchanged in the low $60s over the last week as Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said. “Oil markets and prediction markets do not appear to price a large probability of a near-term peace agreement and removal of the sanctions on Russia oil.”

Geopolitical tensions are keeping the market jittery and adding a risk premium to prices, partly countering concerns about a growing surplus. That includes US rhetoric against Venezuela, with US President Donald Trump suggesting the Pentagon will soon start targeting drug cartels with strikes on land.

Meanwhile, an industry report showed nationwide US crude stockpiles increased by about 2.5 million barrels last week, while inventories of gasoline expanded. Government figures, including on demand, are due later Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted some U.S. proposals to end the war in Ukraine while rejecting others, according to the Kremlin on Wednesday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia is ready to meet with U.S. negotiators "as many times as it took to reach an agreement" on Ukraine.

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The statement follows talks in Moscow between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner. The discussions extended into the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Peskov emphasized it would be incorrect to say Putin had rejected the U.S. proposals, describing the meeting as a first face-to-face exchange of opinions. A Kremlin aide had earlier stated that "compromises have not yet been found."

The Kremlin indicated that work on a possible Ukraine deal is currently being conducted at the expert level, adding that such talks have a better chance of being productive if carried out without public commentary.

Russian officials expressed appreciation for Trump's efforts, with Peskov stating that the Kremlin "highly values Trump's political will to try to find a resolution and is grateful to him for his efforts."

The Kremlin also noted that the results of ongoing expert-level work should form the basis for high-level conversations between Russia and the United States.

When asked for additional details, the Kremlin declined further comment, stating it does not favor "megaphone diplomacy."

Source: Investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

In a midweek appearance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee, Bullock said the country's labour market is "a little tight", and the output gap has "probably closed".

This is how economists say the economy is at a point that it is at risk of becoming increasingly inflationary, something the RBA would guard against.

She said persistent inflation will affect the future policy path and the RBA is "alert to the possibility CPI pressures might be building."

"If CPI pressures build, the board will respond accordingly," she says.

This "development that would encourage a stronger Australian dollar," says MUFG Bank Ltd in a note released Wednesday.

Bullock's comments signal that the RBA has shifted from a rate cutting cycle and is in the early stages of laying the path to higher rates. As recently as August, Bullock was preparing the market for another interest rate cut, having reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points.

But the 'curve' has adjusted massively and money market pricing shows investors are now positioned for a hike in the second half of 2026. This

"The Australian rate market has moved to almost fully price in a rate hike from the RBA in light of the tighter than expected labour market conditions and the pick-up in inflation pressures," says a note from MUFG Bank Ltd.

ANZ, one of the country’s largest lenders, said this week it has readjusted its expectations for the future of Australian rates.

Economists at the bank say they now expect the cash rate to remain at 3.60% for an "extended" period, marking a significant shift from earlier forecasts that assumed additional easing in 2026.

The bank says recent inflation pressures, steadier economic growth and a labour market moving into balance mean the RBA is unlikely to deliver further cuts.

At the same time, ANZ says it is "difficult to see a rate hike in 2026", pointing to the rise in unemployment over the past year and conflicting signals across demand indicators.