Global Repercussions Mount as Trump Confirms Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Site

Middle East Situation

Summary:

World leaders issue urgent calls for diplomacy after President Trump announces U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, igniting geopolitical shockwaves and fears of regional destabilization....

Global Diplomacy Faces Major Test Following U.S. Strikes on Iran

The international community is reacting with alarm and division following President Donald Trump’s confirmation that the United States has bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, including the sensitive Fordo facility. Declaring it a “historic moment,” Trump emphasized the need for Iran to surrender and end what he described as a prolonged conflict. While the United States framed the attack as a show of strength and a pathway to peace, many global leaders voiced grave concerns over the legality and consequences of the military action.

U.S. allies in the region, particularly Israel, strongly supported the move. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision as bold and transformational, reinforcing their shared belief in “peace through strength.” However, this support was far from universal.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strikes as violations of international law, including the UN Charter and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. He declared that Iran reserves the right to respond, indicating a retaliatory stance that raises the risk of further escalation. The assertion that Iran's nuclear facilities are peaceful further inflames debate over the justification and proportionality of the attack.

UN and Asian Leaders Call for De-escalation

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep concern over the potential consequences of the strikes, warning that the situation could spiral out of control and destabilize not only the region but also global security. He emphasized that diplomacy, not military aggression, is the only sustainable path forward.

Asian leaders mirrored this sentiment. South Korea held an emergency National Security Council meeting, while Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba acknowledged the need to prevent nuclear development but stopped short of endorsing the attack. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, however, supported the U.S. action, warning Iran against further destabilization.

China offered one of the strongest rebukes, condemning both the United States and Israel at a UN Security Council meeting. Chinese Ambassador Fu Cong stressed the need to abide by international law and avoid exacerbating an already volatile situation. New Zealand’s Foreign Minister and leaders from Qatar and Saudi Arabia also called for restraint and a return to negotiations.

Europe Pushes for Dialogue While Iran Dismisses Criticism

European leaders, including the U.K.’s Keir Starmer and the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas, urged a diplomatic resolution and called on Iran to re-engage in talks. However, Iran rebuffed these appeals, with Foreign Minister Araghchi pointing out that Tehran never withdrew from diplomatic efforts, subtly accusing the West of distorting the narrative.

The EU’s suggestion that Iran return to negotiations—despite its consistent participation—demonstrates a possible misalignment in perceptions between Tehran and Western powers. This gap in understanding threatens to weaken the EU’s influence in any mediation efforts moving forward.

Wider Middle East and Global South Express Outrage

Condemnations from the broader Middle East were equally swift. Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis denounced the strikes as blatant aggression. Lebanon’s presidency voiced fears of escalating instability across the region.

Reactions from the Global South were starkly critical. Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev criticized Trump’s role in igniting a new conflict while under nomination for a peace prize, highlighting the irony of the moment. Venezuela, Cuba, and Pope Leo all condemned the attack, with Venezuela calling for immediate cessation and labeling the bombing as an unlawful act orchestrated with Israeli influence.

Pope Leo’s appeal added a moral dimension to the political discourse, urging the global community to act with conscience before war becomes an "irreparable abyss." His remarks emphasized human suffering over military gain, underscoring the wider human cost of continued escalation.

The strikes on Iran represent a critical turning point for global diplomacy, exposing fractures among world powers and raising the specter of wider conflict. While some leaders see the act as a strategic assertion of deterrence, others view it as a dangerous provocation that risks irreversible escalation. The contrasting responses—from active endorsement to outright condemnation—underscore the fragility of the current international order and the urgent need for diplomatic intervention to avert a broader crisis. The coming days will test whether global actors can step back from confrontation and steer toward resolution, or whether the momentum of conflict will eclipse efforts for peace.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Gold’s Rally Faces Headwinds Despite Geopolitical Escalation

On Monday, gold prices in Asia edged down by 0.2% to around $3,361 an ounce, pulling back from an earlier intraday gain of 0.8%. The decline came amid rising tension in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, which initially appeared to bolster gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the broader market sentiment turned cautious, with traders recalibrating expectations around inflation and U.S. monetary policy.

While heightened geopolitical risk typically favors gold, Monday’s dip reveals a more complex interplay of factors. The U.S. dollar gained 0.2%—a move that typically undermines non-yielding assets like gold by making them more expensive for non-dollar holders. Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged, fueled by fears that Iran could disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for nearly 20% of global oil shipments.

This creates a potential inflationary threat. Should energy prices climb persistently, the Federal Reserve might be forced to maintain elevated interest rates, undermining the appeal of gold which yields no income. The relationship here is causative: higher oil prices lead to broader inflationary pressure, which in turn compels central banks to tighten or hold rates, dampening gold's attractiveness.

Investor Sentiment Wavers on Conflict Scope and Central Bank Outlook

Despite the gravity of the strikes, investor reaction has been muted. Daniel Hynes of ANZ notes that markets are not yet convinced this episode will escalate into a broader regional conflict. Without a definitive retaliatory strike from Iran—beyond political rhetoric or minor skirmishes—investors have avoided a full tilt into haven assets like gold.

Iran’s strategic calculus also plays a role. Its reluctance to disrupt oil markets too severely may stem from a desire not to provoke China, a key economic partner. This geopolitical restraint has helped cap gold's upside momentum, even though the metal is still up nearly 30% year-to-date and trades just $140 below its record high in April.

Short-Term Outlook: Balancing Uncertainty and Policy Caution

The near-term outlook for gold remains delicately balanced. Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital suggests that ongoing uncertainty coupled with generally accommodative monetary policies will continue to support elevated prices. However, any escalation by Iran or further oil-driven inflation shocks could shift the Fed’s policy stance, potentially reversing some of gold’s gains.

In summary, while geopolitical instability remains a structural support for gold, current price behavior reflects a cautious market still weighing whether the conflict's trajectory and the Fed’s reaction will ultimately justify further inflows into the precious metal.

Source: Bloomberg

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Blue River

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

The USDJPY pair continues to trade higher with no signs of retreat. The USDJPY forecast for today, 23 June 2025, suggests a new wave of buying with a retest of the local high at 146.78.

The USDJPY pair has climbed to a five-week peak as the US dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. Find more details in our analysis for 23 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

●The USDJPY pair reached a five-week high amid strong market demand for safe-haven assets

●Domestic signals from Japan appear solid

●USDJPY forecast for 23 June 2025: 146.78

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 146.70. Strong demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset followed a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict. The United States struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, joining Israel in the confrontation with Tehran.

Domestic Japanese data provided some positive signs, with the manufacturing sector returning to growth in June for the first time since May 2024. The services sector also expanded for the third consecutive month, indicating broad economic resilience.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% per annum. The central bank commented that firms continued to pass rising wages onto prices, keeping core inflation high. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed a data-driven policy approach and left the door open for further rate hikes if inflationary pressure intensifies.

The USDJPY forecast is favourable.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY H4 chart shows strong potential for a retest of the local high at 146.78.

A key support level is located at 145.10.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Middle East Situation

Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Spark Trade Anxiety in Seoul

South Korea’s first vice industry minister, Moon Shin-hak, publicly voiced concerns on Monday regarding the trade implications of the recent U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. During a monthly export monitoring meeting, Moon emphasized that the evolving Middle East situation poses risks to the nation’s import-export dynamics. This statement reflects growing anxiety in Seoul over how escalating conflict in the Gulf region could disrupt energy supplies and global trade flows.

The primary area of concern lies in South Korea’s overwhelming dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, which represented 72% of the country's total oil imports in 2023. As global oil prices surged to their highest levels since January—immediately following news of the U.S. military action—traders began anticipating even steeper rises should Iran retaliate by restricting or blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a strategic chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global crude flows, and any disruption there would exert direct upward pressure on oil prices, raising costs for energy-dependent economies like South Korea.

The connection here is not merely correlational but causative. Rising geopolitical instability, particularly involving Iran’s oil infrastructure or maritime routes, directly impacts oil prices. These price movements, in turn, feed into South Korea’s economic stability by inflating input costs for key industries.

Emergency Measures Reflect Strategic Concerns

The South Korean government convened an emergency security and economic task force on Sunday to assess the short- and medium-term impact of the U.S. strike. While specific policy adjustments have not yet been disclosed, this reactive stance suggests a high level of concern over volatility in trade flows, energy pricing, and broader macroeconomic stability. The decision by President Lee Jae Myung to forgo attending this week’s NATO summit, citing regional uncertainties, further signals how seriously Seoul is treating the potential fallout.

South Korea’s strategy moving forward will likely involve diplomatic engagement with both Washington and regional Middle Eastern actors to minimize exposure. Seoul has already been engaged in talks with the U.S. aimed at delaying or revising tariffs and securing cooperation in other trade areas. However, the new geopolitical volatility could complicate these efforts by adding urgency to discussions around energy security and trade continuity.

In conclusion, the U.S. strike on Iran introduces significant external risk to South Korea’s trade and economic outlook. While short-term market reactions are immediate—such as oil price spikes—the long-term implications hinge on whether the conflict escalates further and how effectively South Korea can adapt its supply chain strategies in response.

Source: Reuters

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Olivia Brooks

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's recent price action suggests the cryptocurrency may be poised for a significant pullback to the $93,000-$94,000 range, according to on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci, who cited multiple technical indicators supporting a bearish outlook for the world's largest digital asset.

What to Know:

●Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum above $100,000 despite reaching $108,000 earlier this week

●Technical indicators including RSI below 50 and the 50-day moving average signal weakening bullish momentum

●The $95,000 level represents critical resistance that could trigger further selling pressure if breached

Technical Indicators Paint Bearish Picture

The flagship cryptocurrency has maintained its position above the psychological $100,000 level since early May but has failed to capitalize on this milestone. Over recent days, Bitcoin has been confined to a narrow trading range between $103,000 and $106,000, displaying what analysts describe as lackluster price performance.

Kesmeci's analysis, shared on social media platform X on June 21, highlighted several key technical factors supporting his bearish thesis. The Fixed Range Volume Profile Intensive Swap Level stands at approximately $95,000, marking a significant resistance zone where buyer-seller dominance has historically shifted with heavy volume.

This resistance level becomes particularly concerning when combined with Bitcoin's proximity to the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Currently positioned near $105,000, the SMA50 represents the same level Bitcoin appears ready to close below for the second time. Such a breach could accelerate downward momentum, according to Kesmeci's assessment.

The Relative Strength Index adds another layer of concern to the technical picture. Trading below 50 and beneath its 14-day moving average, the RSI indicates a clear loss of bullish momentum. Lower lows forming in the RSI provide additional evidence of seller dominance in the current market environment.

$94,000 Target Backed by Multiple Confluences

Kesmeci's specific target of $94,000 stems from the Value Area Low in the Fixed Range Volume Profile, which points to the $93,000-$94,000 range. This zone could serve as strong support during any potential selloff, offering buyers an opportunity to re-enter the market at favorable levels.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average provides additional confirmation of this bearish scenario. Converging near the $95,000 level, the SMA200 creates a confluence of technical factors that strengthen the case for downward price movement.

Market participants should prepare for potential opportunities around the highlighted support zone, Kesmeci advised. The analyst emphasized that good buying opportunities might emerge if Bitcoin does indeed test these lower levels.

Current market conditions show Bitcoin trading at approximately $101,596, representing a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours. This recent weakness aligns with the technical deterioration outlined in Kesmeci's analysis.

Market Outlook and Key Levels

The convergence of multiple bearish indicators suggests Bitcoin faces headwinds in the near term. The inability to sustain momentum above $105,000 combined with weakening technical indicators creates a challenging environment for bulls.

Traders and investors will be closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to hold above the $95,000 resistance-turned-support level. A decisive break below this threshold could accelerate selling pressure and push the cryptocurrency toward Kesmeci's projected target range.

The analyst's methodology incorporates various timeframes and technical tools, lending credibility to the forecast. Volume profile analysis, moving averages, and momentum indicators all point toward potential weakness in Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.

Despite the bearish near-term outlook, the $93,000-$94,000 zone represents what technical analysts consider a high-probability reversal area. This support confluence could provide the foundation for Bitcoin's next significant move higher.

Closing Thoughts

Technical analysis from on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci indicates Bitcoin may face downward pressure toward the $93,000-$94,000 support zone, with multiple indicators suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The confluence of resistance at $95,000, deteriorating RSI conditions, and proximity to key moving averages creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin bulls in the coming weeks.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Commodity

Political

Middle East Situation

Crude Rally Reflects Deepening Geopolitical Risk

Oil markets entered a fresh wave of turbulence after the U.S. launched direct strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, dragging Washington into the Israel-Iran war. Brent crude rose nearly 2% to $78.53 per barrel while WTI crossed $75. This comes on top of Friday’s sharp jump of over 7%, the largest one-day gain in months, driven by fears of disrupted supply.

The escalation has raised serious alarms among energy analysts and traders, who now see oil prices potentially hitting or exceeding $100 per barrel—levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The Strait of Hormuz: Oil’s Most Fragile Chokepoint

Much of the anxiety centers around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily—roughly one-fifth of global supply. Iranian parliament's approval to close the strait, following U.S. airstrikes, has jolted markets and reignited memories of previous threats from Tehran during past geopolitical flare-ups.

Analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee warned that even limited interference in the strait—such as harassing oil tankers—could induce significant price spikes. A full closure lasting more than a few weeks would almost certainly drive crude prices above $100 and potentially trigger direct Western military intervention to reopen the route.

Energy Infrastructure Still Safe — But for How Long?

Despite missile exchanges and escalating rhetoric, energy assets have remained untouched for now. Rebecca Babin from CIBC noted that neither side has shown intent to directly attack oil infrastructure, indicating a shared incentive to keep energy flows steady despite growing military aggression.

However, Rapidan Energy Group's Bob McNally warned that if Iran turns its arsenal toward disrupting Gulf production or LNG shipping, oil could experience an even more violent surge, possibly surpassing previous crisis levels.

Historical Echoes with a Modern Twist

Iran has made similar threats before—in 2018 after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, and in 2011–2012 during sanctions over nuclear enrichment. Yet none materialized into long-term closure of the strait. The difference now, as Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates emphasized, is the sustained exchange of missile fire and the active involvement of a global superpower, raising the threat level beyond prior episodes.

While price action is aggressive, analysts remain divided on the probability of a worst-case scenario. Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, pointed out that despite serious rhetoric, the physical feasibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz is limited, and markets will likely remain reactive rather than preemptively panicked unless escalation becomes more tangible.

The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index has already climbed to levels last seen in March 2022, a reflection of hedging activity and market uncertainty. However, with no confirmed damage to energy assets and tanker traffic still flowing, the base-case scenario among traders is caution—not collapse.

The U.S. entrance into the Iran-Israel conflict has fundamentally altered oil’s risk calculus. While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or strikes on Gulf infrastructure remain worst-case outcomes, even the specter of such disruption is enough to put a $100 crude environment within reach. As energy traders brace for Iran’s next move, the world’s most strategic waterway now holds the key to global price stability—or the next major energy shock.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Markets in Limbo Amid Geopolitical Shock

Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend, global financial markets opened the week with a mix of guarded moves. The dollar showed modest gains against major currencies, while oil surged to a five-month high and equities retreated globally. Investors are clearly in wait-and-see mode, absorbing the gravity of the U.S.-Iran conflict while resisting overreaction—at least for now.

The dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.037, underpinned by a 0.25% gain against the Japanese yen and a 0.33% decline in the euro. The Australian dollar, viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, weakened 0.2% to $0.6437, reflecting market aversion to risk exposure. Sterling and the New Zealand dollar also declined.

Currency Markets Signal Contained Panic—For Now

According to Carol Kong of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, investors are more concerned about the inflationary effects of the rising oil prices than about immediate economic disruption. That explains the muted flight to safety, as markets hope the latest military action remains limited and does not evolve into a broader regional war.

The cautious tone was reinforced by Saxo Bank strategist Charu Chanana, who noted that current haven flows remain restrained, reflecting an assumption that this is a tactical escalation rather than a prelude to systemic disruption in global oil supply or trade.

Still, safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar are likely to benefit if the conflict worsens. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint for nearly a quarter of global oil flows—would dramatically shift risk pricing in all asset classes, including currencies.

Oil’s Surge Highlights Real Inflation Threat

While forex markets remain somewhat subdued, energy markets are not. Oil jumped to its highest level since January as traders braced for supply shocks, especially after Iran’s parliament approved a move to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. The closure, if carried out, would severely limit shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, exacerbating global inflation pressures.

These inflationary concerns also have potential feedback loops into monetary policy, especially in economies like the U.S., where central bank interest rate decisions are finely balanced between inflation control and growth support.

Dollar Outlook: Caught Between Geopolitical Safety and Domestic Risk

Despite Monday’s gains, the U.S. dollar is still down 8.6% year-to-date, reflecting broader concerns about domestic growth headwinds, particularly stemming from President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Investors remain hesitant to fully embrace the dollar given the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, fiscal tensions, and Trump’s unpredictable geopolitical decision-making.

This explains why the dollar’s ascent, although present, lacks conviction. A sustained move higher would likely require confirmation of either further escalation in the Middle East or signs of financial market distress globally.

In the digital asset market, Bitcoin rose 1.3% and Ether rebounded 2.3% on Monday after both experienced sharp losses on Sunday. While cryptocurrencies remain volatile, their relative resilience indicates speculative investors may also be positioning for broader financial instability.

Monday’s market reaction reveals a landscape suspended in anticipation. While the dollar has found some footing as a haven, broader movements are measured, not panicked. The world is now watching Tehran’s next move. Should Iran proceed with closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliate directly, the fragile equilibrium holding back broader market panic could quickly unravel—sending oil, currencies, and global risk assets into much more dramatic territory.