Focus on US Inflation

Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Economic

Summary:

US President Donald Trump has been busy, announcing fresh tariff threats against the European Union (EU) of 30%. Trump also threatened 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no ceasefire deal is reached within 50 days.

Tariffs, tariffs, and more tariffs

Well, US President Donald Trump has been busy, announcing fresh tariff threats against the European Union (EU) of 30%. The EU are reportedly gearing up to impose countermeasures, and, according to recent developments, has finalised a list of counter tariffs totalling €72 billion. I believe this is more about sending a message to the US that the EU wants to secure a deal before 1 August and avoid a broader trade conflict, but at the same time they want to be clear that it is prepared to retaliate if necessary. Markets, of course, will hope that these tariffs are not implemented, as an intensifying trade war between the two sides could considerably weigh on the single currency.

Trump also threatened 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no ceasefire deal is reached within 50 days. The President clearly showed his displeasure with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in the Oval Office with Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte yesterday, noting that he is ‘very, very unhappy with Russia’ and plans to deliver weapons to Ukraine. However, Trump was clear that this will be paid for by NATO member countries (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

Macro focus is on US inflation today

In addition to June Canadian CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index), today’s key risk event will be the June US CPI inflation print, which will be released at 12:30 pm GMT. Economists expect to see a moderate increase in US price pressures, both at the headline and core level. Nevertheless, while there is likely to be some impact of tariffs in the June report, it is unlikely to be enough to prompt the US Federal Reserve to ease policy at the end of the month. I believe tariff-induced inflation will be more of a long-term story, rather than a one-off report where we see a notable change in prices.

Should the June data report higher-than-expected US inflation, as I noted in the week-ahead post, this could prompt a sell-off in US Treasuries and increase demand for the US dollar (USD). A USD bid could also be emphasised on the back of the USD being overstretched to the downside in terms of COT positioning (Commitment of Traders), as well as the technical picture displaying an absence of resistance on the long and medium-term charts.

Another event worth adding to the watchlist today is UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ annual speech at Mansion House in London this evening. This will give Reeves a chance to outline her vision as the UK economy is clearly slowing, along with subdued investment, and UK government debt nearing 100% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Market participants will be looking for signs of stability from Reeves, following her emotional appearance in Parliament, which led to a rise in Gilt yields and a sell-off in the British pound (GBP).

Bank earnings are also on deck today, with focus on JPMorgan Chase & Co. , Wells Fargo & Company, Citigroup Inc. , and BlackRock, Inc. .

Market snapshot

In terms of the markets in early European trading, US equity index futures are moderately on the front foot this morning, with European cash markets opening positive. The DAX is up 0.3% and the STOXX Europe 600 has added 0.2%.

US Treasury yields bear steepened yesterday, with the 30-year bond yield closing in on the 5.0% barrier, which could tempt a bid in longer-dated Treasuries at this level. The USD is tentative this morning, down 0.1% per the USD index, with the EUR/USD (euro versus the US dollar) trading up by 0.4%.

In the commodities space, both Spot Gold and Spot Silver are up 0.5% this morning, following moderate declines yesterday. Note that Silver recently reached highs of US$39.13, levels not seen since late 2011.

I would also be remiss if I did not direct some the spotlight to Cryptocurrencies, with BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) recently touching gloves with all-time highs of circa US$123,000. Though I must add that yesterday finished in the shape of a bearish shooting star candle pattern is now down nearly 3.0%, testing space south of US$117,000.

来源： FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill

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Olivia Brooks

Central Bank

Economic

The U.S. is expected on Tuesday to report that rising costs for imported goods lifted overall consumer prices in June, kicking off what might be several months at least of such increases and giving Federal Reserve officials highly awaited data on whether the Trump administration's tariffs are boosting inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pinpointed this summer as the time when the U.S. central bank will likely learn if inflation is responding to the tariffs applied by the Trump administration on trading partners and various industrial sectors.

So far the levies have had only a limited impact on inflation, a fact that President Donald Trump has used to excoriate Powell and demand that the Fed lower interest rates.

But that doesn't mean higher inflation isn't on the way as businesses run down inventory bought before the tariffs took effect or use up other tools at hand to avoid raising prices for their customers.

"We know there is a lag between implementation and the inflationary effect," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "Businesses manage imports using different processes ... We have not seen the full-blown effects of tariffs on CPI data ... I would expect to start to see more."

The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release the latest CPI data at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists has the index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increasing at a 3% annual rate last month, slightly faster than in May.

That reading would likely leave the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target far enough above that goal to keep the central bank's benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of its July 29-30 policy meeting.

Investors expect the Fed to resume cutting interest rates in September, though U.S. central bankers say any such move will hinge on how inflation and other aspects of the economy behave.

The final U.S. tariff levels are not even fixed, with levels of 30% or more now threatened by Trump on Mexico, Canada and the European Union, higher levies on autos and many industrial metals already in place, and more actions likely. For the Fed, the way the process is unfolding feeds into concerns that the extended debate, policy reversals and uncertainty, and the potential for Trump to settle on higher levels than currently expected all add up to more inflation risk.

Clawing back tariff costs

The PCE index outside food and energy rose at a 2.7% annual rate in May; recent Fed policymaker projections see it hitting 3.1% by the end of 2025; and the most recent round of tariffs threatened by Trump for August 1 could push it even higher.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Pepperstone

Data Interpretation

Tariffs Trigger A Shaky Start To The Week

The euro faced headwinds while stocks wobbled on Monday as markets reacted to Trump’s weekend tariff announcements. Today, the latest US CPI figures highlight the docket.

Something of a shaky start to the week, yesterday, as fallout from President Trump’s weekend EU & Mexico tariff announcements continued.

The difficulty here is that, while everyone knows that those tariff letters are almost certainly a negotiating gambit, and that the new levies are highly unlikely to come into effect, we must all still discount even a slim possibility of all this actually coming to pass. Frankly, there is no participant out there who, on 1st August, wants to be having an awkward conversation with their risk desk, trying to explain why they didn’t hedge possibly the most obvious risk on the horizon right now.

In any case, at least in the equity complex, participants were content that they’d adequately hedged by about mid-afternoon here in London, at which point dip buyers re-emerged en masses, seeing major Wall Street benchmarks end the day in the green, with tech leading the gains. In my mind, the path of least resistance continues to lead higher, amid the likely progress towards trade deals, coupled with solid underlying economic and earnings growth. All that keeps the bull case intact, and results in dips remaining as buying opportunities.

Action in the FX space, though, was somewhat less optimistic. The common currency drifted lower for much of the day, not helped by some relatively cautious ECB ‘sources’ stories alluding to the possibility of another rate cut, albeit not until the September meeting. Somewhat by default, this EUR weakness saw the greenback gain some ground, though those gains were seen against most G10 peers, most notably the quid, where the grim fiscal reality appears to finally be dawning.

That aside, I still don’t see especially much to like about the greenback here, as political uncertainty in DC persists, and as Trump & Co continue to grumble about Chair Powell, while slowly but surely eroding monetary policy independence. The buck remains a sell on rallies to me.

Overall, though, if we’re to make the assumption that this is all setting up for another TACO moment, then it remains Treasuries that rule the roost in determining when such a moment might come to pass. In relatively crude terms, Trump has probably 5% or so of downside in spoos to play with before anyone starts to panic too much, but likely less than 5bp of upside in the benchmark 30-year yield before fear sets in.

We once again saw that 30-year yield come within inches of the 5% mark yesterday, though dip buyers emerged in relatively rapid fashion, with said demand seen most notably at the long-end of the curve. Still, while locking in yields at this level remains an attractive prospect, a convincing move north of that 5% mark does seem to have a bit of an air of inevitability about it.

Perhaps, that will be the real trigger for the TACO trade to come back with a vengeance.

LOOK AHEAD – A busy docket awaits today.

Last month’s US CPI figures highlight proceedings, with the data likely to show the first evidence of tariff-induced price pressures beginning to emerge. Both headline and core CPI are seen rising to their highest annual rates since February, at 2.6% YoY and 2.9% YoY respectively, both vindicating the FOMC’s ‘wait and see’ approach to monetary policy. An approach that, even in the event of a hugely cooler than expected print, will persist at the July confab in a couple of weeks.

Elsewhere, the latest German sentiment surveys are due from the ZEW institute, with the expectations metric seen rising to 50.4, its highest level since March. We’ll also receive eurozone industrial production figures for May, as well as last month’s Canadian CPI report, where the headline metric is set to remain beneath the midpoint of the BoC’s target range.

Besides that, plenty of speakers are due, including four FOMC members, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, who will give his annual Mansion House address. Chancellor Reeves will also be speaking at that gathering, apparently to ‘insist’ that she has a grip on the UK economy; a remark which, frankly, doesn’t fill you with confidence.

来源：Pepperstone

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Gerik

Bond

Record Issuance in June, Driven by Private Placement

June 2025 marked a breakout month with corporate bond issuance reaching VND 105.5 trillion, a 52.4% increase from May. All issuances were conducted through private placements there were no public offerings. This was the highest monthly issuance of the first half of the year, according to data from FiinGroup.

Cumulatively, from January to June, the total value of bonds issued reached VND 248.6 trillion. Private placements accounted for 88.8% of this total, growing by 72.4%, while public offerings made up only 11.2% (up 62.3%).

Interest Rates and Tenors Remain Stable

Issuance interest rates remained steady. Credit institutions issued bonds with an average interest rate of 5.5% and a tenor of 3.6 years, while non-bank corporates issued at a much higher average rate of 9.8% with a shorter tenor of 2.4 years. These averages have barely changed across the first six months.

Credit institutions dominated issuance in June, accounting for 83.2% of the total, driven by liquidity balancing needs. Credit growth stood at 8.3%, while deposit growth was only 6.1%, prompting greater reliance on bond issuance for funding.

Non-financial corporates made up 24% of total issuance volume. While their proportion declined, they still saw a modest 17.1% recovery in value compared to the same period last year, especially in the real estate segment.

Bond Buybacks and Secondary Market Activity Surge

Bond buybacks also accelerated, with VND 48.7 trillion worth repurchased in June, nearly double the amount from June 2024 and 1.2 times that of May 2025. Credit institutions led the buybacks, accounting for 80.5%, followed by real estate companies at 6%.

Over the first half of the year, total buybacks reached VND 110 trillion up 42.7% year-on-year with banks and real estate firms accounting for 55% and 22.1%, respectively.

The market faces considerable pressure in the second half of 2025, with VND 125 trillion in bonds maturing 53% of which come from the real estate sector, 22.4% from banks, and 8% from trade and services. This includes many previously extended bonds under Decree 08.

Secondary Market Liquidity Remains Strong

In June, the secondary market recorded nearly VND 137.1 trillion in bond transactions, a 19% increase month-on-month. Daily average trading value reached VND 6.53 trillion the highest level in 2025 so far. Over six months, total liquidity rose 13.2% to VND 651 trillion.

The banking and real estate sectors remained the top two in trading volume, accounting for 45.5% and 31.8%, respectively. While banking bonds saw little change, real estate bonds saw a 37.6% jump in liquidity.

In June alone, banking bond transactions reached VND 56.3 trillion (down 11% month-on-month), while real estate bond trades climbed 26% to VND 40.5 trillion, making up 29.6% of total transactions.

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Blue River

Forex

Economic

The USDJPY pair has risen significantly and retains the potential to climb further. The USDJPY forecast for today, 15 July 2025, suggests a possible test of the 148.00 level.

The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

●The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs

●Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements

●USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.

Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.

Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is clearly in a strong uptrend since 3 July 2025. Following a period of consolidation between 144.00 and 146.00, with a local bottom formed near 144.00, the yen has lost ground rapidly. USD has strengthened to 147.65 and now approaches the key resistance level of 148.00.

The price confidently trades above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming upside momentum. The nearest support level lies at 147.18, followed by 145.73. If the price breaks above the 148.00 level, the upward wave will likely extend towards new highs.

From a technical standpoint, the outlook remains bullish. Each dip gets bought back, and the upper Bollinger Band is expanding. However, the 148.00 level may act as a short-term barrier to further gains.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

Hopeful Shift in US-EU Trade Tensions Lifts European Stocks

European stock markets opened slightly higher on Tuesday, buoyed by signs of de-escalation in the ongoing transatlantic trade dispute. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.2% to 547.74 points as of early morning trading, reversing some of the uncertainty triggered by President Trump’s weekend threat to impose sweeping 30% tariffs on European Union imports beginning August 1.

Despite the European Union’s firm stance on Monday, accusing the U.S. of being uncooperative in trade negotiations and warning of retaliatory measures, Trump softened his rhetoric shortly after. He stated that the U.S. remained open to discussions and confirmed that EU officials would travel to Washington in the coming days to pursue further negotiations. This slight pivot helped improve investor sentiment and stabilize markets ahead of the looming deadline.

Auto and Tech Stocks Lead Gains, Telecoms Lag

Within the STOXX 600, automotive stocks jumped 0.9%, partially recovering from recent losses triggered by fears of U.S. tariffs that would disproportionately impact Germany’s export-heavy carmakers. Technology shares were also up 0.8%, riding the broader market momentum, while the telecom sector lagged with a 0.8% decline.

Danish renewable energy company Ørsted saw a particularly strong session, gaining 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight.” The move reflects growing confidence in the offshore wind developer’s fundamentals amid Europe’s green energy push.

Awaiting Key Economic Data and US Bank Earnings

Investors remain cautious, however, with key macroeconomic data still ahead. Eurozone industrial production figures for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July are expected later today. These will provide further insights into the region’s economic resilience amid geopolitical turbulence and high borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., market focus is shifting to the second-quarter earnings season, with major banks set to report results. Additionally, the release of June’s consumer price index (CPI) later today could influence Fed rate expectations and global investor risk appetite.

Though the STOXX 600’s modest rise reflects cautious optimism, the path forward for European markets remains tied to the outcome of high-stakes U.S.-EU trade talks. Trump’s willingness to reengage in dialogue has temporarily calmed nerves, but the specter of 30% tariffs still hangs over the bloc. Upcoming data and earnings will be critical in shaping short-term investor sentiment as markets balance hope with lingering uncertainty.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Turning Tariffs into a Weapon for Peace: Trump's New Diplomatic Gamble

In a striking twist on traditional trade policy, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 100% secondary tariffs on countries that continue purchasing Russian exports, unless Moscow agrees to end its war in Ukraine within 50 days. Speaking during a high-profile Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump framed these unprecedented measures as a moral imperative, not just a geopolitical tactic.

The proposed secondary tariffs levied not on Russia directly but on its trading partners represent a radical departure from conventional trade sanctions. Trump’s plan is aimed at squeezing Russia’s economic arteries by targeting its oil customers, primarily China, India, and Turkey. According to the International Trade Centre, these three countries accounted for the bulk of Russian exports in 2024, making them potential direct targets of U.S. trade penalties.

While the strategy has garnered criticism for risking a global backlash, some commentators suggest it signals a rare use of economic force in service of peace rather than profit. If successful, it could set a new precedent for enforcing international norms through market-based deterrence.

China’s Resilience and U.S. Markets React Cautiously

Even as these secondary tariffs loom, the global economy shows signs of surprising resilience. China’s second-quarter GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding Reuters’ 5.1% forecast. However, the pace slowed compared to Q1’s 5.4% indicating the world's second-largest economy is still feeling the weight of internal challenges, despite outperforming expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets responded with modest gains. Investors appeared to shrug off Trump’s intensifying rhetoric, buoyed instead by news that the White House will allow Nvidia to resume chip exports to China. Nvidia confirmed on Tuesday that it will be granted licenses to ship H20 chips designed specifically for China despite ongoing U.S. tech restrictions.

These moves signal a careful balance within the administration: hawkish toward adversaries like Russia, but pragmatically open with China when it serves American commercial and strategic interests.

Gold’s Rally Resumes as Tariff Tensions Rise

In response to the mixed signals from Washington, gold prices rallied 0.5% to $3,360.86 an ounce, reclaiming ground lost earlier this week. The metal’s role as a safe-haven asset has grown stronger amid escalating trade threats and growing investor uncertainty. Although gold recently hit a record high above $3,500, its momentum had paused over the past three months as markets waited for policy clarity.

Now, with the specter of 100% tariffs and global economic fragmentation, analysts remain cautiously bullish. City Index’s Fawad Razaqzada noted that if trade negotiations collapse before August, bullion could surge past its April highs.

A Billion-Dollar Wooden City Takes Root in Europe

Away from geopolitics, Europe is pushing boundaries in sustainable development. In Sickla, on the edge of Stockholm, Sweden is preparing to launch “the world’s largest wooden construction project.” Atrium Ljungberg AB is investing 12 billion SEK (around $1.25 billion) in what it calls Stockholm Wood City an eco-district built from cross-laminated timber. The project signals Europe’s resolve to prioritize sustainability despite market volatility.

As the world’s power players clash over trade and diplomacy, projects like Stockholm Wood City offer a quiet yet powerful counter-narrative where long-term resilience and environmental foresight compete with headline-driven volatility.

Trump’s tariff ultimatum reframes trade as a strategic force in global conflict resolution, opening a provocative chapter in international diplomacy. While risky, it underscores the growing entanglement between commerce and geopolitics in a world where every trade decision doubles as a political signal. Whether this gamble will lead to peace or provoke economic retaliation remains uncertain, but it undoubtedly reshapes the narrative around how tariffs are understood and used.