FintechZoom Brent Crude Insights: Understanding the Global Oil Market

Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is one of the leading technology companies globally. Its stock, often referred to as Meta stock (META), is a significant component of the technology sector and a favorite among investors. This article explores the dynamics of Meta stock, its performance, and how financial platforms like FintechZoom and FastBull provide valuable insights and analysis for traders and investors.

Meta Platforms, Inc. is a multinational technology conglomerate that owns some of the most popular social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. It has also made significant investments in virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) through its Oculus brand and is pioneering the development of the metaverse—a virtual shared space.

Several factors influence the performance of Meta stock, including user growth, advertising revenue, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. Investors closely watch these elements to gauge the company's future prospects and stock performance.

User Growth: The number of active users on Meta's platforms is a critical metric. Growth in user base translates to increased advertising revenue.

Advertising Revenue: As a major source of income, fluctuations in advertising revenue directly impact Meta's financial performance. Changes in ad policies or competition can significantly affect this revenue stream.

Regulatory Environment: Regulatory scrutiny and data privacy concerns are ongoing challenges for Meta. New regulations or legal challenges can impact the company's operations and stock performance.

Technological Innovation: Meta's investment in VR, AR, and the metaverse is seen as a long-term growth driver. Successful development and adoption of these technologies can positively influence stock performance.

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Meta Platforms, Inc. remains a dominant player in the technology sector, with its stock being a key focus for investors. Platforms like FintechZoom and FastBull play a vital role in providing the necessary insights, analysis, and tools for making informed investment decisions.

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Marine Le Pen's National Rally is on course to win about 33% of the vote, which is what the polls suggested would be the case. Pollsters say National Rally can now win a majority in the National Assembly in Sunday's second round of votes.

For currency markets, the base-case scenario has come to pass as the outcome aligns with pre-election polls.

The Euro's rise confirms the market is now quite relaxed with the prospect of a National Rally government and the 'cohabitation' arrangement that will emerge between the government and President Emmanual Macron.

The worst-case scenario was a stronger showing by the far-left New Popular Front, which we warned could propel the Pound-Euro towards 1.22.

The New Popular Front looks to be on about 29% and Ensemble, Macron’s coalition, on about 22%.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate 'gapped' lower when markets opened late on Sunday night, reversing the gap higher it experienced just weeks prior following the unexpected announcement by Macron that the country would be asked to vote for a new legislature.

Pound-Euro has sliced through the 1.18 level and is now close to levels consistent with the market having removed the political risks premium associated with France. This means there is a growing likelihood the exchange rate will fall back into familiar 2024 territory, which saw trade centred around the 1.17 level.

The Pound-Euro rose following Macron's decision to call a vote as markets feared the uncertainty posed by a radical far-left or far-right party taking power.

The rally peaked at €1.19, the highest level for those buying euros in 22 months, meaning a long-running deadlock between the Pound and Euro was broken. (For most of 2024, the GBP/EUR conversion has been locked between 1.1764 and approximately 1.16.)

During the campaign period, Le Pen's party sought to calm investor fears, saying it would respect the institutions and would fund all its spending commitments, easing fears France's debt levels would ultimately become unsustainable.

Remember, too, that this week, the UK goes to the polls, and any unexpected results could offer some short-term volatility, although we don't anticipate that to last.

In short, it is central bank interest rate settings that matter, and whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August.

South Korea on Monday extended its foreign exchange trading hours to provide better access to investors in different time zones.

Financial authorities in the country hope the longer trading hours will help South Korea to win designation as a developed market by the MSCI and allow it to join FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index.

Following a six-month trial run, dollar-won trading now runs from 9 a.m. to 2 a.m. the following day, whereas it used end at 3:30 p.m., according to the Finance Ministry.

The initiative "moves the Korean won a step forward to its G10 counterparts, which typically trade around the clock," said Shen Li, head of forex sales for the Asia-Pacific at State Street in Hong Kong. Allowing investors in Europe and the U.S. to trade the won at a more convenient time is "perceived as a positive support for Korean bonds to be included in major fixed-income indices," he said.

Around 30 foreign institutions registered with the South Korean government to trade under the new hours, as of Thursday, according to the Finance Ministry.

In 2023, the country's daily dollar-won trades averaged $18.5 billion, up around 7% compared with the previous year, according to central bank data.

While the longer market operation is expected to increase trading volume, "The extent to which trading activities will go up still depends on demand from end investors and supply readiness from qualified registered foreign institutions," State Street's Li said.

The government urged financial institutions doing business in the country to play a leading role in late-night market making, a statement from the Finance Ministry said Thursday. Choi Ji-young, the ministry's deputy minister for international affairs, asked heads of local and foreign banks to "pay attention to staff working night shifts and those assigned to overseas branches, and to ensure stable transaction and payment systems," the statement said.

The longer hours mean overseas investors will gradually shift to forex spot trades and forward transactions from relying on nondeliverable forwards, said Ethan Seo, head of global markets at BNP Paribas in Seoul.

Offshore trading of the Chinese yuan, which took effect in 2010, offers a precedent, he said. While opening up onshore markets to investors overseas round the clock typically takes five to eight years, he predicts it will take around five years for South Korea. He expects banks to be the main users of extended trading hours at first. For the change to take root, he said more global investors should be encouraged to participate, and added that it is important for the country to open up its bond and stock markets as well.

"I think the new system will gain more traction in the long term, considering domestic banks, global banks and the authorities are working on it together," he said.

Initial projections, alongside statements from Macron and Melenchon on Sunday, indicate that the most probable outcome is that no party will achieve an absolute majority, resulting in a 'hung parliament'. Hence, public spending in France is not set to rise significantly (see scenario 1, page 2).

Projections indicate that National Rally (RN) won the first round with around 33.5% of the votes, which translates to 230-305 seats in the National Assembly. A party needs 289 to gain an absolute majority. The left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) came second with around 28.9% (120-200 seats) and Macron's centrist alliance (Ensemble) third with around 21.4% (60-125 seats). The final result is determined on Sunday 7 July.

The most likely scenario (55% probability) is a 'hung parliament' in the National Assembly after the second round. In this main scenario, we thus expect the 10y yield spread between France and Germany to tighten by some 30bp to 40-60 bp within 3 months as fears over spending increases fade.

Due to record-high voter turnout, approximately 300 constituencies will have three candidates in the final round. However, both Macron and left-wing leader Melenchon have pledged to withdraw candidates within the next 48 hours to defeat the RN.

In the "cohabitation" scenario (35% probability) where Le Pen's party, Rassemblement National (RN), wins an absolute majority and Jordan Bardella becomes the next prime minister, we also expect the 10y yield spread between France and Germany to tighten, albeit to a less extend and trade between 50-60 bp within 3 months.

Initial projections, alongside statements from Macron and Melenchon on Sunday, indicate that the most probable outcome is that no party will achieve an absolute majority, resulting in a 'hung parliament'. Hence, public spending in France is not set to rise significantly (see scenario 1, page 2). The second most likely scenario is an absolute majority for the National Rally, especially if third candidates from the NPF and Ensemble do not withdraw as previously stated. Notably for the markets, the scenario where the left-wing NPF secures an absolute majority is considered the least likely, so the worst fears of spending increases should fade.

The most updated projections from four pollsters' show that the National Rally (RN) won the first round with around 33.5% of the votes, which translates to 230-305 seats in the National Assembly. Gaining an absolute majority requires a party to secure 289 seats, and while it is uncertain if National Rally (RN) has achieved this, it appears most likely that they have not. The left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) came second with around 28.9% (120-200 seats) and Macron's centrist alliance (Ensemble) third with around 21.4% (60-125 seats). The projection is not the actual result of the first-round, but it indicates that RN had a slightly worse result than polls suggested and Ensemble and NPF a slightly better result.

In the second round on Sunday, July 7, there will be runoffs between the two candidates who received the most votes along with any third or fourth candidate who garnered more than 12.5% of all eligible votes. Due to the record high voter turnout, it is estimated that around 300 constituencies will feature three candidates. This situation presents a clear advantage for the National Rally, as votes will be split between the centre and the left. However, the left-wing NPF leader, Melenchon, has encouraged all third-placed candidates from his group to withdraw in an effort to unite against the sRN along with Macron's Ensemble. Macron himself has called for "a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round." He stated that they would withdraw candidates where they placed third to support those who uphold "the values of the republic" in defeating the National Rally. Candidates now have 48 hours to withdraw in what promises to be a period of intense negotiations that is crucial to monitor.

The most likely scenario (scenario 1, probability: 55%) is a 'hung parliament' where no group or party obtains an absolute majority in the National Assembly. In this scenario, the new government will need to seek ad-hoc support for legislation, necessitating compromise. Given the division in the French parliament we find it unlikely that the new government can find support for any larger increases in spending. As the government needs to use the so-called article 49.3 to pass legislation (including the budget) through without a majority, we find large changes in policies unlikely as it then requires that the government survives a "no confidence" vote. Consequently, we should expect a status quo in France and its public finances. In this main scenario, we thus expect the 10y yield spread between France and Germany will tighten to 40-50 bp within 3 months as fears over spending increases fade.

In the "cohabitation" scenario (scenario 2, probability 35%) where Le Pen's party, National Rally (RN), wins an absolute majority and Jordan Bardella becomes the next prime minister, we expect only a gradual implementation of the party programme and no large immediate increases in public spending. This is supported by the fact that RN has rolled back the costliest initiatives from the previous campaign. Bardella, who is the prime minister candidate has particularly softened his rhetoric's on EU and public spending and in a recent FT interview Bardella said that "I do not intend to go to war with Brussels" and that the EU fiscal rules of a maximum deficit of 3% of GDP "remains an objective" and that "it will require me to prioritise". Moreover, Bardella said he will undertake an audit of French public finances before deciding on spending priorities in the autumn. However, we note that his first priority will be to cut the VAT on energy and petrol, which will cost EUR12bn a year (0.4% of GDP) which he intends to fund this by raising various taxes, cutting tax loopholes and the France's contribution to the EU budget. Yet, we assess that ambitions of turning the fiscal policy substantially more expansionary will be dampened by the risk of exclusion from EU/ECB support programmes or possible punishment in financial markets. Hence, in the scenario where Le Pen's party wins an absolute majority, we also expect the 10y yield spread between France and Germany to tighten to 50-60 bp within 3 months.

In the third scenario, also a "cohabitation" situation, the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) coalition secures an absolute majority (scenario 3, probability: 10%). Here, we anticipate an increase in public spending and potential confrontations with the EU. Unlike Bardella and RN, the left-wing alliance has maintained a firm stance in its communications recently. They want to increase spending by some €EUR150bn (5% of GDP) by 2026-2027, lower the pension age from 64 to 60, and at the same time increase taxes similarly in order not to increase the deficit. However, as details on funding are sparse and the risk of anti-establishment increases, we expect the immediate reaction in this scenario will likely be a significant increase in the spread between France and Germany to 100-150 bp within 3 months. Whether the government then will be able to work together in such a scenario is very uncertain though as the NPF coalition consists of four very different parties with contrasting views on topics such as Russia and Israel. Especially, it is important to note, that the left-wing coalition includes a more modest party like the socialist party with former president François Hollande, and we do not think they would tolerate market turmoil going this badly for a prolonged period, as they would lose all credibility of them being fit to govern in the future.

The first round of the French election did not yield any major surprises compared to the latest polls. As we discuss in the EUR section below, the euro is seemingly getting rid of some risk premium, ultimately weighing on the dollar this morning. We still think the dollar can benefit from defensive positioning into and after the 7 July second round vote.

On the other hand, the US macro story is increasingly pointing to a softening in the dollar. The three main data releases this week are the ISM survey results (manufacturing today, services on Wednesday), the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), JOLTS job openings for May (Thursday) and June's jobs report (Friday).

The ISM PMIs are expected to show a marginal improvement in manufacturing – while remaining in contraction – and a softer services figure, while still in expansion. All in all, there is a chance the surveys won't be adding much more to the activity narrative. Instead, jobs figures should set the undertone for markets outside of the impact of EU political developments until June CPI figures are released on 11 July. Interestingly, consensus is for another drop in JOLTS job openings after the surprise April contraction which hit the dollar. When it comes to the payroll print, jobless claims data and weak business hiring surveys suggest the jobs market is softening, and we don't expect another strong read for June. Consensus is currently at 190k, and there are chances of an even softer print.

Ultimately, we expect jobs figures to support the case for a rate cut in September. As discussed by James Knightley here, the 0.08% month-on-month (rounded to 0.1%) core PCE figure for May and the cooldown in consumer spending are all pointing in that same direction. We don't think the Federal Reserve will want to drive the economy into an unnecessary downturn, and September remains the most likely start date for an easing cycle.

We'll hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have to say about this at Sintra's European Central Bank forum tomorrow. He has generally shown a sanguine tendency when it comes to disinflation, and he may ultimately neutralise the impact of FOMC minutes on Wednesday, which could be more hawkish given the June Dot Plot.

Finally, a lot of focus will remain on US political developments as President Joe Biden faces mounting pressure to step down from the race. Should this happen, the Democratic party committee would decide a new nominee. The favourite would automatically be VP Kamala Harris – who has even lower approval ratings than Biden. California Governor Gavin Newsom is seen as a more likely successor at this stage. That's unlikely to be a smooth process, but with consensus having shifted more in favour of a USD-positive Trump victory after last week's debate, Biden dropping out could be a USD-positive development, especially if Newsom becomes the candidate.

We aren't convinced the peak of French political impact on the FX market is past us, so while we see US macroeconomic data as mostly USD-negative in the coming weeks, we doubt this will translate into a clear-cut dollar decline due to EU political risk. DXY may break below 105.0 on softening US jobs figure and a dovish Powell this week, but may then encounter increasing support below that level.

It appears that EUR/USD is getting rid of some political risk premium this morning after preliminary results from the first round of French parliamentary elections came in close to pre-vote polls. Marine Le Pen's National Rally is projected at 34%, followed by the leftist New Popular Front at 29% and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance at 22%. The positive reaction in the euro is, in our view, primarily due to some market relief for the New Popular Front not gaining more than expected.

Still, first round results are not offering much certainty about the composition of the parliament, and the second round scheduled for the next weekend is in fact the big risk event. We'll be monitoring closely the performance of OAT versus the bund today. There is a chance of some tightening in the spread which can help the euro, but our rates team continues to view structurally wider spreads beyond the short term and we doubt the euro will be able to entirely erase political risk premium this summer.

On the data side, the eurozone calendar's main highlight is the flash CPI estimates for June, released tomorrow. German numbers are due this morning and are expected to show a slowdown from May's 2.4%. Inflation did come down as expected in France and Spain's CPI estimates released on Friday.

The ECB's forum in Sintra runs from today until Wednesday and will offer plenty of discussion on policy and inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers prepared remarks today and on Wednesday, and participates in a panel with Powell tomorrow. Among other speakers in Sintra, Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane stand out. On Thursday, June's ECB minutes are released.

Markets should end this week with a slightly clearer picture on the ECB path ahead given CPI data and ECB-speak, but the political factor should remain the main driver for the common currency until next week's second round results in France are out. We think soft US data can help a move above 1.0800, but a return to 1.0900 is a relatively long shot considering risks of rewidening EGB spreads.

It is election week in the UK, and the BBC poll tracker puts Labour at 40%, Conservatives at 20%, Reform UK at 16% and Liberal Democrats at 11%. There has, indeed, been very little doubt about a Labour landslide win, so the election should not be a huge event for markets. We suspect that a stronger than expected result by populist/hard-Brexiteer Reform UK is the most tangible risk for some slight adverse reacting in GBP assets.

As widely discussed recently, the chances of the election result deviating the Bank of England policy path are very low, and the pound should continue to rely on external drivers (both in EU politics and US macro) and key domestic data releases. June CPI and jobs report aren't published before 17-18 July, so even if we see expect a cut in August (market pricing 15bp) to hit the pound, the case for a materially stronger EUR/GBP within the next couple of weeks is not very compelling.

We have a busy week ahead not only on a global level but also for the CEE region. Today, we will see PMIs across the board which should confirm a mixed picture for industry – but hopefully including some signs of improvement. Later today, we will also see the first half government budget result. The National Bank of Poland meets on Wednesday and, in line with the market, we expect rates to remain unchanged at 5.75%. As always, more attention will therefore be on Thursday's press conference. We will also see June inflation in Turkey on Wednesday. We expect a reversal after the peak in May and a drop from 75.4% to 72.5% year-on-year in June. We will also see a central bank decision in Romania on Friday. We expect the National Bank of Romania to leave rates unchanged again at 7.00%, but the consensus preference is for a 25bp rate cut, and it looks like it will be a close call. On Thursday and Friday, we will also see some data prints of industrial production and retail services in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Romania.

While we have a busy calendar in the region, we don't think that prints and central bank data this week will change the picture enough to impact FX all that much. Today will be all about the impact of the French election, and early indications point to weaker CEE FX, especially through higher EUR/USD. Usually, we would see the CZK less vulnerable to the global story vs PLN and especially HUF, but this time we see the CZK in the same group thanks to the Czech National Bank undermining FX with a larger than expected rate cut last week. However, rate differentials fell significantly across the region last week, leaving FX vulnerable to an external shock. On the other hand, today's open indicates positive news coming out of France supporting CEE FX across the board, which should be main story for today.