Federal Reserve Shows Unexpected Unity, Independence as It Weathers Trump’s Attacks

Economic

Summary:

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-point in a near-unanimous decision, signaling unity and independence despite heavy pressure from President Trump for steeper cuts and attempts to reshape the Fed’s leadership.

The Federal Reserve’s nearly unanimous decision Wednesday to reduce its key interest rate was seen by many observers as a quiet show of unity and independence amid President Donald Trump’s relentless pressure for steeper cuts and his unprecedented effort to fire a top Fed official.

Many Fed-watchers expected a contentious two-day meeting this week, with the economy’s future uncertain and a Trump appointee hastily added to the board just hours before the meeting began. The White House has also floated several members of the Fed’s governing board as potential replacements for the current chair, Jerome Powell, when his term ends in May, creating incentives for those officials to push for the deep rate cuts Trump has demanded.

Some economists expected as many as three dissenting votes among the 12 voting members of the rate-setting committee, which would be the most in five years and somewhat unusual for a consensus-driven organization. Even four dissents — which hasn’t happened since 1992 — weren’t out of the question.

Trump has appointed three members to the Fed’s governing board — two in his first term — all of whom could have voted in favor of steeper cuts.

And many officials on the rate-setting committee are wary of cutting too quickly, with inflation still clearly above the Fed’s 2% target. Some observers thought one of those policymakers could dissent in the other direction — in favor of not cutting rates at all.

Instead, just one official dissented from the Fed’s decision to reduce its rate by a quarter-point: Stephen Miran, who was nominated by Trump to an empty seat and hurriedly approved by the Senate late Monday, just hours before the two-day meeting began.

Brian Bethune, a Boston College economist, was impressed by the Fed’s unity in the face of White House pressure.

“They all came together to support what seems to be a very balanced decision,’’ he said. The nearly unanimous vote “sends a very strong message that they’re not going to bow to the monarch. They’re going to do what’s appropriate for the economy.’’

Trump has said that one of the Fed governors he appointed in 2018 — Christopher Waller — is a potential replacement for Powell, and Waller dissented in favor of a rate cut in July, when the Fed kept borrowing costs unchanged. Another Trump appointee from his first term, Michelle Bowman, also dissented in July. Yet on Wednesday they both voted with their colleagues.

On social media, Jason Furman, a top economic adviser in the Obama White House, posted that he was “thrilled’’ that Trump appointees Bowman and Waller did not join in Miran’s dissent. “Bodes well for the Fed’s independence,’’ wrote Furman, now an economist at Harvard University.

In the weeks leading up to the meeting, Trump sought to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, after accusing her of mortgage fraud, which she has denied. It was the first time in the Fed’s 112-year history that a president has sought to remove a governor.

Many legal experts consider the firing a threat to the Fed’s independence, as Trump has openly discussed securing a majority on the Fed’s governing board. Cook sued to keep her job and a court ruled she could remain on the Fed’s board while her lawsuit is resolved.

An appeals court upheld that decision late Monday, enabling Cook to vote in favor of a rate cut Wednesday. Also late Monday, the Senate voted along party lines to confirm Miran as a Fed governor. He was sworn in Tuesday morning.

Previous presidents have appointed their economic advisers to the Fed. Former chair Ben Bernanke was an adviser in the Bush administration before being appointed chair of the Fed. But Miran’s case is unusual because he is keeping his position at the White House, while taking unpaid leave.

Powell has always sought to avoid a direct confrontation with Trump and avoided commenting on Cook’s case during a news conference Wednesday, and he didn’t say anything directly about Miran’s status.

“We’re strongly committed to maintaining our independence and beyond that I really don’t have anything to share,” Powell said when asked about Miran.

Powell also repeatedly noted that with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, while unemployment has also risen, it’s not clear what steps the Fed should take next. If it cuts its rate too much, it could overstimulate the economy and accelerate inflation. If it keeps its rate too high, an ongoing hiring slowdown could get worse.

“It’s challenging to know what to do,” Powell said. “There are no risk-free paths now.”

Nevertheless, “we came together at the meeting and acted with a high degree of unity,” he added.

Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and now chief economist at New Century Advisors, said Fed policymakers likely acted out of support for the Fed as an institution.

“The institution is under attack,” she said. “This was not the time for three dissents.”

Source: AP

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Federal Reserve Shows Unexpected Unity, Independence as It Weathers Trump’s Attacks

Source: AP

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