EUR/USD Holds Firm At Support, Raising Odds Of Additional Gains

Blue River

Forex

Economic

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The Euro started a decent increase above 1.1550 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD cleared the key barrier at 1.1600 to enter a positive zone.

Key Highlights

EUR/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.1620 resistance.

A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1630 on the 4-hour chart.

GBP/USD started consolidating gains above 1.3300.

USD/JPY might start a fresh increase if it clears the 156.00 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a decent increase above 1.1550 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD cleared the key barrier at 1.1600 to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move above 1.1620. It traded as high as 1.1681 and settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

It is now consolidating gains above 1.1620. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1630. Immediate resistance sits near 1.1660. The first key hurdle is seen near 1.1680.

A close above 1.1680 could open the doors for a move toward 1.1725. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.1780.

On the downside, there is key support at 1.1630 and the trend line at 1.1620. The next support is 1.1580 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) could spark a bearish move and send the pair to 1.1510. Any more losses might call for a test of 1.1465.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair rallied above 1.3300 and recently started a consolidation phase. The main support sits at 1.3260.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Export Rebound Masks Deepening U.S. Trade Weakness

China’s export performance in November 2025 painted a mixed picture. On the surface, total outbound shipments rose 5.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, significantly outperforming expectations of 3.8% and reversing a contraction seen in October. However, this overall recovery conceals a strikingly poor performance in U.S.-bound trade, with exports to the world’s largest consumer market plummeting 28.6%. This marks the eighth consecutive month of double-digit decline in exports to the U.S., highlighting that the recent tariff truce has yet to restore trade flows between the two economic superpowers.

Despite the diplomatic breakthrough between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump in late October where both sides agreed to suspend several trade restrictions for one year China’s trade with the U.S. continued to deteriorate. Not only did exports collapse, but imports from the U.S. also shrank by 19% compared to a year earlier. These figures suggest that the deal’s impact has not yet materialized in transactional terms, potentially due to residual tariffs still in place (47.5% average on U.S. goods to China and 32% vice versa) and lagged implementation of commitments such as soybean purchases and rare earth access.

By contrast, China’s exports to other major partners have flourished. Shipments to ASEAN and the EU rose by over 8% and nearly 15%, respectively. This disparity reflects a likely causal relationship between geopolitical alignment and supply chain diversification, as Chinese exporters prioritize regions where policy friction is lower and logistical efficiency is more stable. The substitution effect is further validated by the growth in China’s rare earth exports, which rose 24% year-on-year in November, hinting at an active redirection of critical materials to non-U.S. destinations.

Trade Surplus Rises While Domestic Demand Falters

Even as exports recovered, domestic conditions remained fragile. Imports rose only 1.9%, underperforming expectations of 3%, suggesting that weak domestic demand largely attributed to a persistent housing downturn and labor market uncertainty continues to undermine consumption. Compared to the same period in 2024, imports for the first 11 months of 2025 dropped 0.6%, while exports rose 5.4%, pushing the trade surplus to a massive $1.076 trillion, up 21.6% year-on-year. This stark imbalance indicates that external demand not internal consumption remains the primary engine of economic growth.

Trade categories such as soybeans and rare earths, central to the U.S.-China agreement, showed early signs of increased activity. Soybean imports climbed 13% year-on-year to 8.1 million metric tons in November, though still below October levels. China’s commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end may still fall short, reflecting a lag in implementation. Meanwhile, the rare earth sector benefited from a 24% year-on-year volume surge, aided by a new licensing regime aimed at accelerating exports. While these developments represent partial compliance with the trade deal, they remain insufficient to reverse the declining trajectory of overall bilateral trade.

Domestic Manufacturing Under Pressure Despite External Gains

Although November’s export rebound offered relief to Chinese manufacturers, internal indicators showed ongoing stress. Official data confirmed that factory activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month, while private surveys focusing on export-oriented manufacturers also slipped back into contraction territory. This suggests a weak correlation between headline export numbers and actual industrial health, as a limited set of commodity exports (such as rare earths) may be masking broader stagnation in manufacturing orders.

With the Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for later this month, attention is now turning to Beijing’s next fiscal and monetary strategies. While the government is expected to retain the 2026 growth target of “around 5%,” analysts including Goldman Sachs anticipate more aggressive easing in early 2026. Potential measures include expanding the fiscal deficit cap by 1 percentage point of GDP and reducing policy interest rates by at least 20 basis points. These policy responses are designed to offset the effects of weak domestic consumption and a sluggish fourth quarter.

The strengthening yuan, which appreciated nearly 5% since April to 7.0669 per dollar, has not yet hindered export performance. However, as Weijian Shan of PAG argued, a stronger yuan could play a positive role in boosting household purchasing power and consumption’s contribution to GDP which has slipped to 53%, down from 86% in 2023. The implicit suggestion is that China’s long-term economic sustainability hinges on rebalancing growth away from export dependency and toward internal demand, a structural shift that remains largely unaddressed.

China’s trade data for November 2025 reveals a complex narrative of selective resilience. While exports to the rest of the world have surged, the continuing collapse in trade with the United States indicates that bilateral tensions and structural frictions run deeper than a single-year tariff suspension can resolve. Moreover, internal vulnerabilities persist despite impressive external figures. As Beijing prepares for 2026, policymakers must grapple with not only maintaining external momentum but also delivering domestic reforms that can unlock sustainable, consumption-led growth.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Pepperstone

Commodity

Forex

This week, market attention turns to the Fed's final rate decision of the year. Updates to the dot plot, adjustments to economic projections, and Powell's remarks could all be key factors influencing gold's year-end trajectory.

Technical Observation: Consolidation Near Highs, $4,250 Resistance Stands Out

Looking at the XAUUSD daily chart, gold has been trading in a tight range between $4,180 and $4,250. Bulls face clear resistance near $4,250, with multiple attempts failing to hold above this level. Although the uptrend formed at the end of October remains intact, buying momentum has been limited, keeping supply and demand relatively balanced.

On Monday morning, gold traded near $4,200. To the upside, $4,250 is a critical level for resuming the uptrend. A sustained break above this level, accompanied by higher volume, could reignite bullish momentum, pushing toward $4,300 and ultimately the record high of $4,381.

To the downside, a drop below last week's $4,180 low would shift focus to the October uptrend line near the 50-day moving average, likely attracting buying interest and prompting a short-term rebound.

FOMC Decision in Focus: Gold Awaits Guidance

Bullish factors remain dominant for gold. In the U.S., the December rate cut is priced at nearly 90%, the dollar is weak, and internal Fed divisions over the path of future easing have grown, all supporting gold. Meanwhile, China's central bank increased its gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month in November, reinforcing price support. Yet, last week's economic data only reinforced existing bullish narratives without providing new momentum.

At the same time, U.S. Treasuries faced continued selling, with yields rising, reflecting cautious expectations for a "hawkish cut," which adds some pressure to the non-yielding asset.

The market's focus is squarely on the Fed's decision this week. Beyond the rate cut itself, traders are watching dot plot updates, Powell's tone, and guidance on the 2026 rate cut path. Unlike Powell's previous emphasis on internal consensus, committee members now differ significantly in both policy direction and magnitude. Even minor adjustments by a few members could lead to notable dot plot shifts and rate path changes.

The baseline scenario for traders is that the U.S. labor market faces downside risks, unemployment forecasts may be slightly revised higher, and Powell may acknowledge internal Fed divisions while using moderately hawkish language on the rate cut. With dot plot uncertainty intact, this policy risk hedging could provide some support to gold.

If the Fed's outcome and comments are clearly dovish, gold's upside momentum could strengthen further. Conversely, if economic forecasts show persistent inflation and some Fed members lean hawkish, delaying 2026 rate cuts, profit-taking could intensify, putting short-term pressure on gold prices.

Beyond the Fed: Other Key Events This Week

Overall, gold remains in high-level consolidation, and market confidence in its long-term bullish outlook stays firm. In the short term, "range trading and trend-following" remains the preferred strategy. Until $4,250 is decisively breached, chasing positions carries risk. Any reasonable pullback is likely to attract buying interest and support prices.

Aside from the Fed, the market will also monitor policy meetings from the RBA, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank. The market's main tension has shifted from simply validating economic data to pre-pricing potential divergences in major central bank policies. Greater volatility in interest rates and currencies could further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

On Tuesday, the U.S. will release October JOLTS job openings, expected at 7.15 million. This will be the first data reflecting the true labor market post-government shutdown, potentially shaping expectations for Fed policy.

If the figure falls below consensus, it may reinforce expectations of a weaker labor market, increase the probability of rate cuts, and provide additional support for gold.

Source: Pepperstone

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Oil Prices Hover Amid Conflicting Forces of Demand and Geopolitical Instability

Brent crude prices remained below the $64 per barrel threshold on Monday, showing signs of stabilization after achieving consecutive weekly gains for the first time since August. West Texas Intermediate hovered around $60, signaling a temporary equilibrium in global oil markets. This price movement reflects a fragile balance between geopolitical tensions, specifically the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and shifting trade dynamics, notably India’s increasing engagement with Russian oil supplies.

A key driver of this price stability is India's sustained interest in Russian crude. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently pledged to ensure uninterrupted fuel shipments to India, a gesture seen as reinforcing bilateral energy ties. This commitment arrives just as US negotiators land in New Delhi for broader trade discussions. India’s growing role as a key buyer of sanctioned Russian oil appears to have softened some of the downward pressure on prices, at least in the short term. The causality here stems from India’s willingness to purchase discounted Russian crude, which provides a steady demand stream that supports market prices even as other variables suggest bearish conditions.

Ukraine’s Military Strategy Targets Russian Energy Infrastructure

Simultaneously, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, notably the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on the Black Sea, a vital hub for Russian oil exports. These offensives have disrupted loadings and driven up physical crude premiums. Kyiv’s broader targeting of energy-related assets within Russia is adding a layer of volatility to supply expectations. The effect of these strikes is not necessarily linear in its impact on pricing, but they do create a correlation between rising geopolitical risk and short-term support for oil benchmarks.

Despite these developments, broader market fundamentals suggest a bearish outlook. Rising output from OPEC+ nations and non-OPEC producers such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana is projected to outpace lukewarm global demand growth. The market’s oversupply condition is not yet fully priced in but is increasingly acknowledged by analysts. Vivek Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that as Russia successfully redirects its oil flows around sanctions, the impact of supply resilience will weigh more heavily on the market. His projection indicates that Brent could trend downwards toward $60 per barrel through 2026, implying that the current price stability may be fleeting.

Outlook Hinges on Major Energy Reports

Market participants await new forecasts this week from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC. These reports are expected to provide updated insights into global inventory levels, production forecasts, and demand projections. Their release could shift current sentiment by validating oversupply concerns or revising growth outlooks depending on emerging data.

In summary, oil prices are currently supported by India’s energy diplomacy and the disruptive impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian export capacity. However, this support exists in tension with structural market concerns over increasing global supply. The interaction of these variables some directly causal, others correlative will likely determine the trajectory of oil prices heading into 2026. Without a significant uptick in demand or a sustained supply shock, bearish pressures may gradually override short-term stabilizing forces.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Markets Await China Trade Recovery as Sentiment Remains Cautious

Asia-Pacific equities traded without clear direction as investors focused on the upcoming release of China’s November trade data, with expectations of an export recovery. According to a Reuters poll, China’s exports are forecast to grow 3.8% year-over-year in November, reversing October’s 1.1% decline. Imports are also expected to rise 3%, up from 1% previously. A better-than-expected print could strengthen confidence in China’s manufacturing and global trade momentum heading into 2026.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures pointed to a higher open, and the index rose 0.24% during the session. Mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.43%, with markets drawing support from optimism around a trade rebound.

However, the excitement from Moore Threads’ massive IPO debut last week waned, as the Beijing-based GPU maker saw its shares drop more than 5% following Friday’s 400% surge on Shanghai’s STAR Market. Despite the slip, the stock remains well above its IPO price of 114.28 yuan, closing at 600.50 yuan.

Japan’s Growth Disappoints, Raises Concerns About Economic Momentum

Japan’s economic outlook dimmed as revised data showed a sharper contraction in Q3. The economy shrank at an annualized rate of 2.3% between July and September, worse than both the initial estimate of a 1.8% fall and economists’ forecast of a 2.0% decline. The downward revision underscores persistent domestic weaknesses amid sluggish consumption and global headwinds.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14%, while the broader Topix managed a modest 0.25% gain, suggesting some sector rotation even as growth concerns deepened.

Australia Awaits RBA Decision Amid Rate Hold Expectations

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began its two-day policy meeting, with a decision due Tuesday. Economists widely expect the central bank to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% and hold steady through 2026. Market participants are closely watching for any shifts in the RBA’s tone regarding inflation risks or labor market trends.

The S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.17% lower as investors turned cautious ahead of the announcement. Some analysts suggest that with inflation moderating and household consumption under pressure, the RBA is likely to retain its current stance, though market-implied pricing still leaves the door open for cuts later in 2026.

Regional Performance Snapshot

As of the latest updates, major indexes across Asia-Pacific displayed diverging trends. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.78% to 4,132.22, supported by gains in technology stocks, while the Kosdaq added 0.45%. India’s Nifty 50 fell 0.39% to 26,083.70, tracking broader concerns over global economic growth and domestic valuations.

China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.62% to close at 3,927.19, reflecting moderate optimism ahead of the trade data. The Nikkei ended slightly positive at 50,525.59 (+0.07%), rebounding from earlier losses.

U.S. Markets Set the Tone with Cautious Optimism

Investor sentiment in Asia was also influenced by Wall Street’s Friday performance. All three major U.S. indexes posted gains despite mixed economic data. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 6,870.40, achieving its fourth consecutive winning session and moving within 0.7% of its all-time intraday high.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% to 23,578.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 104.05 points (+0.22%) to finish at 47,954.99. The modest gains suggest resilient investor confidence amid hopes for a soft landing and potential rate cuts in 2026.

As markets await China’s November trade report and the RBA’s rate decision, the region remains in a holding pattern. A positive surprise from China could lift sentiment and fuel momentum in Asia-Pacific equities. However, recent disappointments such as Japan’s weaker GDP highlight the fragile recovery still underway across the region. Investors will be watching closely for signals that could shift monetary policy expectations or reveal new insights into global demand trends.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Silver Pauses After Explosive Surge

Silver prices wavered near $58.23 an ounce on Monday, pulling back slightly after touching $59.33 on Friday just shy of its all-time high. The white metal had gained over 2% in the previous session and has more than doubled in value this year, fueled by a potent mix of macroeconomic expectations, structural shortages, and speculative activity.

ETF investors added nearly 590 tons to silver-backed funds last week, marking the strongest inflow since July. This surge in institutional interest is a clear indication that many investors believe the rally still has room to run despite signs of overheating.

Fed Policy Outlook: Driving the Rally or Fueling the Bubble?

Investor positioning in silver has been deeply influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, making them more attractive in a softening rate environment.

The anticipation of monetary easing has strengthened both silver and gold, with the latter also rebounding to $4,205.21 an ounce after a minor 1% dip last week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower, providing an additional tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities.

However, analysts are split on the sustainability of the rally. Justin Lin of Global X Management warned of “frothy” conditions, noting that the current price action reflects significant momentum-chasing behavior, particularly among retail investors.

Structural Supply Pressures Add Fuel

Beyond macro drivers, silver’s rally is underpinned by a continuing global supply strain. October’s historic short squeeze in London shocked the market, and while some physical silver has since flowed into London’s trading vaults, lease rates remain unusually elevated at around 6%, indicating persistent scarcity.

The strain has rippled to other key markets. In China, silver inventories in Shanghai are hovering near decade lows. This tightness is drawing interest from both commercial hedgers and speculative traders who foresee further upside or heightened volatility.

Options trading on Comex silver futures is surging as investors position themselves for wider price swings. Micro silver futures, in particular, have seen five-day average volumes that are second only to peaks recorded during the October squeeze, based on CME Group data.

Retail and Institutional Buying Intensifies

Retail participation remains a crucial part of the rally’s current phase. The uptick in micro contracts and heavy ETF inflows suggests that smaller investors are piling into the trade, chasing the price momentum and reinforcing the upward pressure. This surge in retail activity mirrors past episodes of parabolic silver moves, raising concerns that sentiment may be running ahead of fundamentals.

Meanwhile, institutional investors appear to be hedging for higher volatility or seeking exposure to further upside. Comex options data confirms heightened activity on call spreads and straddles, indicating expectations of continued large price moves in either direction.

Gold Holds Ground, Central Banks Keep Buying

Gold, while less volatile than silver recently, also showed resilience. Prices rose 0.2% Monday, buoyed in part by central bank activity. China’s central bank added to its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, pushing total holdings to around 74.12 million troy ounces. This sustained accumulation reflects strategic diversification away from the dollar and adds credibility to the broader precious metals rally.

Other precious metals showed mixed results, with platinum rising slightly and palladium falling.

A Fragile Rally Fueled by Rate Bets and Supply Squeeze

Silver’s explosive move toward record highs reflects a rare alignment of monetary policy expectations, speculative energy, and structural supply disruption. While the rally has strong technical and sentiment backing, its long-term sustainability remains uncertain.

With the Federal Reserve decision looming and volatility rising, silver markets are entering a critical phase. Any deviation from the expected rate-cut narrative or signs of easing physical constraints could trigger sharp reversals. Until then, both bulls and bears are likely to face high-stakes swings in a market where fundamentals and momentum are locked in a delicate balance.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Bond

Yields Climb as Fed Cuts: A Rare Disconnect

In a striking reversal of normal market dynamics, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply even as the Federal Reserve has reduced its benchmark rate by 1.5 percentage points since September 2024. Ten-year yields have climbed to 4.1% and 30-year yields are up more than 0.8 percentage points, undermining the usual pattern where lower short-term rates lead to falling long-term borrowing costs.

Such divergence hasn’t occurred at this scale since the 1990s, prompting a heated debate on Wall Street over what this behavior signals ranging from optimism about growth to fears over policy credibility and debt sustainability.

Dueling Interpretations: Growth vs. Structural Breakdown

Some analysts see this as a vote of confidence in the economy’s strength, interpreting higher yields amid easing policy as a sign that the Fed is successfully engineering a soft landing. Jay Barry of JPMorgan argues that markets had already priced in the pivot months before the Fed began cutting, muting the yield response. Furthermore, with inflation still above target, rate cuts reduce recession risk rather than amplify it hence less downward pressure on yields.

However, others see darker implications. The rising term premium the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term bonds suggests deeper fears. According to the New York Fed, this premium has risen by nearly one full percentage point since rate cuts began, signaling concerns over persistent inflation, ballooning federal deficits, and potential erosion of Fed independence.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research warns the Fed is cutting too aggressively while inflation remains above 2%. "The market is really concerned about the policy,” he says, suggesting that continued easing could push mortgage rates “vertical,” hurting financial stability rather than supporting it.

Politics in Play: Trump, the Fed, and the Next Chair

The debate is further inflamed by political pressure. President Donald Trump is widely expected to nominate a loyalist Kevin Hassett to replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Trump's repeated calls for aggressive rate cuts have already raised questions about the Fed’s independence, and markets fear that a more compliant chair could further erode confidence in policy discipline.

Steven Barrow of Standard Bank warns that political interference won’t achieve Trump’s goal of lower long-term yields. “Putting a political figure at the Fed will not get bond yields down,” he argues, pointing out that credibility not rhetoric drives real outcomes.

Structural Forces: Beyond the Fed’s Control

Some experts frame the current scenario as part of a broader return to pre-crisis norms. Robert Tipp of PGIM believes yields are settling at “normal” levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis, driven by higher expected real returns and the Fed’s long-term inflation target.

Others argue that the supply-demand dynamics in the global bond market have shifted. During the Greenspan era, excess global savings suppressed yields despite rate hikes now, says Barrow, the opposite is true: a glut of sovereign debt is overwhelming demand, pushing yields higher even as central banks ease.

This suggests the Fed’s ability to steer long-term rates may be structurally constrained. As Barrow puts it, “At the end of the day, central banks don’t determine the long-term rate.”

Economic Calendar: All Eyes on Data and Fed Guidance

Market participants will watch closely this week’s data releases including JOLTS, inflation readings, and jobless claims and Fed communications for hints about the next policy steps. With another 25-basis-point cut priced in and two more expected in 2026, any shift in tone or dissent within the FOMC could rattle markets.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains publicly optimistic, calling 2025 “the best year for bonds since 2020” and projecting inflation to fall significantly in 2026. However, this sentiment contrasts with the upward trajectory of yields, reinforcing the market’s growing disconnect from official narratives.

A Crisis of Confidence or Return to Normal?

The divergence between Fed policy and bond market behavior reflects more than a short-term anomaly it highlights deep tensions between political goals, market expectations, and institutional credibility. Whether yields eventually respond to rate cuts or remain stubbornly elevated will depend on inflation data, fiscal discipline, and the Fed’s ability to maintain independence under political pressure.

As Wall Street debates whether this marks a structural shift or a policy misstep, the outcome will have profound implications for everything from mortgages and credit cards to federal borrowing costs and financial market stability.