EU Targets €100 Billion of US Goods With Tariffs If Talks Fail

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The European Union plans to hit about €100 billion ($113 billion) in US goods with additional tariffs in the event ongoing trade talks fail to yield a satisfactory result for the bloc, according to people familiar with the matter.

The proposed retaliatory measures will be shared with member states as early as Wednesday and consultations will last for a month before the list is finalized, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans are private. The list could change in that time.

Separately, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm that handles trade matters, is expected to share a paper with the US this week to try to kick-start the negotiations, Bloomberg reported earlier. Proposals from the EU are expected to include lowering trade and non-tariff barriers and boosting investments in the US.

Negotiations between the EU and US, which began in earnest last month, have made scant progress and the expectation is that the bulk of the American tariffs will remain in place. The EU said on Tuesday that Trump’s ongoing trade investigations will boost the amount of the bloc’s goods facing tariffs to €549 billion.

A commission spokesperson declined to comment.

The new EU counter-measure list will come on top of the €21 billion of US goods already targeted by EU levies in response to Trump’s 25% duty on steel and aluminum exports. The EU agreed earlier this month to delay for 90 days the implementation of those measures after the US lowered his so-called reciprocal rate on most EU exports to 10% from 20% while the negotiations are taking place.

Trump has also imposed a 25% duty on cars as well as some car parts and has initiated investigations that could result in duties on the imports of lumber, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals and trucks.

The commission has said all options are on the table in response to Trump’s levies and future measures could target services and restrict exports, Bloomberg previously reported.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

As the crypto market begins a slight pullback at the start of this week, bitcoin records a moderate decline to 94,132 dollars. A technical correction occurring after a peak near 98,000 dollars last Friday. Should this be seen as a simple temporary slowdown or a deeper warning signal?

In brief

Bitcoin falls to 94,132 dollars after peaking at 98,000 dollars.
Uncertainties around Fed decisions and geopolitical tensions increase investor caution.
Michael Saylor strengthens his positions, signaling persistent institutional confidence despite BTC’s drop.

Bitcoin takes a step back

After flirting with 98,000 dollars last Friday, bitcoin (BTC) begins a technical correction this Monday by falling back to 94,132 dollars, a 1.45% decrease over 24 hours. The overall crypto market also falls by 1.06%, reaching a capitalization of 2.93 trillion dollars, while stock markets remain generally stable.

This BTC pullback comes after a week marked by a strong rebound driven by good U.S. employment figures for April. However, uncertainties related to Donald Trump’s tariff policies seem to weigh on risk appetite. As a result, investors turn to safe havens like gold — up 2.38% to 3,320.60 dollars per ounce — or bitcoin, despite its volatility.

Slowdown or warning signal?

This bitcoin decline happens in a context where several factors could significantly influence its development this week.

First, the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) on interest rates, expected on May 7, is being closely watched. Jerome Powell’s comments could cause significant market movements and investors are likely withdrawing their bitcoin as a precaution.
Next, recession fears are fueling demand for bitcoin, especially amidst trade tensions between the United States and China. In this environment, BTC attracts investors seeking protection against economic risks. In this specific case, this drop below 94,000 dollars would be only temporary.

Furthermore, this correction does not discourage institutional players, as Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1,895 BTC for about 180 million dollars. His company now holds 555,450 BTC, a strong signal of confidence in bitcoin’s long-term value.

Despite an apparent correction, bitcoin therefore retains the confidence of major investors and remains supported by an uncertain macroeconomic context. The 94,000 dollar threshold could well be just a step before a new upward momentum, provided the Fed does not deliver an unexpected chill, given that Jerome Powell refuses to lower rates.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

Industrial Output and Employment Grow Steadily

Vietnam's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by 8.4% year-on-year in the January–April period, with manufacturing contributing the most (+10.1%). In April alone, the IIP climbed 8.9% compared to the same month last year. Employment in the industrial sector increased by 5.1%, signaling growing production demand.

Vietnam recorded over 89,900 newly established and reactivated enterprises in the first four months of 2025, up 9.9% year-on-year. However, more than 96,500 businesses exited the market during the same period, indicating persistent challenges in the domestic business environment.

FDI Inflows and Disbursement Hit Five-Year High

FDI disbursement reached $6.74 billion — the highest four-month figure in five years — rising 7.3% compared to the same period in 2024. Total registered FDI (including new, adjusted capital, and share acquisitions) reached $13.82 billion, up nearly 40%. Notably, 1,204 new projects were licensed, although total registered capital in these projects declined by 23.8%.

Total retail sales of goods and services reached approximately 2.29 quadrillion VND ($90.7 billion), rising 9.9% year-on-year. Adjusted for inflation, this translates to a 7.7% increase. The boost was supported by rising consumer demand during national holidays and stronger inbound tourism.

Trade Surplus Nears $3.8 Billion Despite U.S. Tariff Pressures

Vietnam’s total trade volume in the first four months stood at $276.89 billion, growing 15.7% year-on-year. Exports rose by 13% to $140.34 billion, while imports increased 18.6% to $136.55 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $3.79 billion. The U.S. remained Vietnam’s largest export market with $43.4 billion in goods, while China was the top import partner at $53.2 billion.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April increased 3.12% year-on-year, with an average inflation rate of 3.2% over four months. Gold prices surged nearly 33% in the same period, reflecting both domestic demand and global market fluctuations. The USD/VND exchange rate also increased by 3.52% year-on-year.

Tourist arrivals reached 1.65 million in April, contributing to a total of 7.67 million visitors in the first four months — a 23.8% increase year-on-year. Favorable visa policies and promotional campaigns supported this growth.

Despite rising global tensions, including U.S. counter-tariff policies and economic uncertainties, Vietnam’s economy has remained resilient in early 2025. Strong industrial performance, robust foreign investment inflows, and growing consumer demand continue to underpin national growth. However, the country must remain vigilant to external shocks and ensure sustainable trade practices amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.

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Gerik

Commodity

Economic

Gold Prices Spike Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,362.69/ounce, hitting its highest level since April 22. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.5% to $3,370.40. The rally came after President Trump revived trade war fears by announcing a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films and hinting at upcoming levies on pharmaceuticals. The lack of clarity surrounding these plans has intensified market anxiety.

Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, explained that gold’s rise at the start of the week reflects investors’ shift toward safe-haven assets to hedge against portfolio volatility amid renewed trade tensions.

Fed Meeting in Focus: Status Quo Expected

Investors are closely watching the Fed’s rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on May 7. The central bank has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2024. According to Reuters, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady during this meeting. However, this may be the last “predictable” decision, as Trump’s trade policies begin to cloud economic forecasts.

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to require more labor market and inflation data before committing to rate cuts, predicting three quarter-point reductions in July, September, and October 2025.

Gold’s gains were mirrored across other precious metals. Spot silver rose 1.5% to $32.98/ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to $972.25/ounce, and palladium edged up 0.5% to $945.25/ounce. These movements underscore investors' search for alternatives in a landscape defined by policy unpredictability and potential stagflation.

Vietnam Market Response

In Vietnam, Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) listed gold bar prices at VND 120.8–122.8 million per tael (buy–sell) on the afternoon of May 6, tracking international trends.

Gold’s momentum reflects mounting investor caution as markets brace for the dual impact of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty and aggressive tariff threats from the Trump administration. If the Fed maintains its current stance while economic risks escalate, gold may continue to benefit from its role as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

China’s Exporters Turn to Third-Party Loopholes

Amid record-breaking tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, Chinese companies are aggressively exploiting trade loopholes to avoid duties. On Chinese social media platforms like Xiaohongshu, a growing number of logistics services openly advertise "origin-washing" routes, promising to transform “Made in China” labels into Malaysian or Southeast Asian ones.

Sellers boast of being able to reroute products through ports like Klang (Malaysia), repackage them, and even obtain certificates of origin from local factories. A quoted service charges only 5 yuan (approximately $0.70) per kilogram to reclassify Chinese goods for U.S. entry.

Booming Grey Market Puts Neighbors at Risk

Countries across Asia are increasingly worried about becoming unwitting accomplices to trade fraud. South Korea recently reported $21 million worth of falsely declared Chinese goods in Q1 2025 alone. Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has also urged domestic businesses to strengthen scrutiny over certificates of origin. Thailand followed suit with stricter controls on exports headed to the U.S.

A salesperson from Baitai Lighting in Zhongshan, Guangdong province, admitted: “We just sell to neighboring countries — they export to the U.S. instead. That way, the tariffs are much lower.” The company uses FOB shipping terms to avoid liability once goods leave Chinese ports.

Fake Documentation, Real Exposure

Many companies disguise goods through container relabeling, paperwork forgery, or blending high-value items with low-cost ones to understate declared value — all to manipulate customs duties. One unnamed logistics company claimed ties to Malaysian factories that can issue origin certificates, while another insider admitted that U.S. Customs “probably knows” but is limited in enforcement capacity.

Amid the fallout, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry announced it would investigate the claims and cooperate with U.S. Customs if evidence emerges. “Falsifying origin or value is a serious offense,” the ministry emphasized in a statement.

Global Retailers Grow Wary

U.S. buyers are increasingly cautious. A senior executive from a top 10 Amazon seller revealed concerns about receiving shipments with suspicious origins. “We no longer allow Chinese suppliers to act as importers of record. There’s too much risk they’ll understate the value — and Customs could seize the shipment,” the executive warned.

A consumer goods producer in Dongguan recounted being introduced to brokers by industry associations who promised hassle-free access to the U.S. market. “I just deliver to a Chinese port — they handle the rest,” she said. “They say small businesses like mine can slip through the cracks. I really hope that’s true. The U.S. market is too big to lose.”

The rampant circumvention of U.S. tariffs via Southeast Asia has created a parallel trade ecosystem that is undermining regional trust and prompting regulatory crackdowns. While Chinese firms fight to preserve their U.S. market share, neighboring countries now face the dual burden of economic scrutiny and reputational risk.

Source: FT

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Michelle

Political

German conservative leader Friedrich Merz failed to secure enough parliamentary votes to become chancellor on Tuesday in a major blow that threw politics in Europe's largest economy once more into disarray.

Merz, 69, who led his CDU/CSU conservatives to a federal election victory in February and signed a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), won just 310 votes in the secret ballot in the lower house, the Bundestag, six short of an absolute majority. It meant at least 18 coalition MPs had failed to back him.

While not a fatal setback, Merz's failure to win parliamentary backing at the first time of asking is a first for post-war Germany and an embarrassment for a man who has promised to revive economic growth at a time of global turbulence.

Most immediately, it threw into doubt the trips Merz had planned to France and Poland on Wednesday as the new chancellor.

Nine lawmakers abstained while 307 voted against Merz, said Bundestag President Julia Kloeckner.

Merz, visibly shocked, rose to confer with colleagues. Party insiders had on Monday expressed confidence that he would secure a majority.

Kloeckner adjourned the parliamentary session to allow the parties to decide how to proceed. There was unlikely to be another vote on Tuesday.

"This is a significant negative. He (Merz) is still likely to be elected but this shows that the coalition is not united, which could weaken his ability to pursue policies," said Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist at Berenberg in London.

German shares extended their fall from near record levels and bond yields dipped. After the election in February, Merz had secured framework legislation for a huge borrowing programme focused on defence and infrastructure. Some of his own supporters were unhappy with the loosening of borrowing limits, however.

FOURTEEN DAYS TO ELECT CHANCELLOR

"... the government still needs to convince its own supporters that it will be able to deliver," said Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro Research and Chief Eurozone Economist ING, Chief Economist ING Germany.

"The failed vote is clearly a sign that not everyone in the CDU agrees with the fiscal U-turn."

The Bundestag now has 14 days to elect Merz or another chancellor.

"The fact that Merz has now failed in the first round of voting sends a devastating signal to society and the economy: the ranks are not united," said Jens Suedekum from the Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

Merz's conservatives won February's election with 28.5% of the vote, leaving them in need of at least one partner to form a majority government.

On Monday, they signed a coalition deal with the SPD, who won just 16.4%, vowing to reform Germany.

But both parties have lost support since their already dismal performances in February, with the far-right Alternative for Germany, which came in second, topping some recent surveys.

"Merz failing to get elected in the first round casts a dark shadow over the future of the coalition," said Philipp Koeker, political scientist at the University of Hanover.

"Although I expect that he will be elected in the second round, the relationship between the parties will be severely damaged because of this and (it will) exacerbate the conflicts that are already bubbling beneath the surface."

Germany has not had a majority government since the collapse of Olaf Scholz's SPD-led three-way coalition last November, and is already facing an array of headwinds.

A global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs is threatening to cause a third year of recession in an economy that is having to rethink its business model.

Meanwhile, Trump has weakened the U.S. commitment to the NATO defence alliance, prompting Europe to rush to boost defence spending to be able to take more of the burden.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Historic Rally Stuns Markets

On May 5, the Taiwan dollar jumped 5% — the sharpest daily appreciation since the late 1980s — peaking at TWD 29.59 per U.S. dollar before settling slightly lower. This surge, extending gains from the prior week, pushed the currency to its highest level in three years. In just one month, the TWD has gained over 10%, sparking concern among investors and exporters.

Major Taiwanese exporters like TSMC felt the pressure, with shares falling as markets feared an unfavorable exchange rate would cut into overseas profits. This reversal came after a strong rally the week before.

Central Bank Holds Emergency Briefing

Taiwan’s central bank, led by Governor Yang Chin-long, held an emergency press conference at 4:30 p.m. local time to address the market’s extreme movements. Despite the volatility, authorities have yet to launch significant intervention, prompting speculation they may be allowing the TWD to appreciate strategically as part of a broader trade negotiation approach.

Transaction volumes for the USD/TWD pair hit their highest since the 2008 global financial crisis. Banks like Cathay United had to activate virtual queuing systems due to overwhelming demand.

Exporters, Insurers on Edge

Exporters scrambled to hedge against losses, while life insurers, who hold substantial USD-denominated assets, were caught off guard by the sudden shift. According to Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission, local insurers currently hold roughly NT$575 billion in U.S. Treasuries — now exposed to rising currency risk.

BNP Paribas strategist Ju Wang remarked that panic has set in among exporters and life insurers, with capital outflows in equity markets also slowing to a halt. The market is now widely interpreting the TWD appreciation as a deliberate move — a goodwill gesture aimed at U.S. trade negotiators.

Trade Talks & Currency Diplomacy

Taiwan confirmed that it held its first round of trade negotiations with the U.S. on May 1 but provided no details. Analysts suggest that allowing the TWD to strengthen may serve as an “olive branch” to ease tensions and signal fair-play intentions amid accusations of currency manipulation.

The U.S. Treasury currently places Taiwan on its currency monitoring list. A stronger TWD could help Taiwan demonstrate compliance and ease scrutiny.

Policy Implications Loom

Observers are divided on what the central bank will do next. Historically, such large currency swings would prompt intervention to maintain stability. But this time, the lack of immediate action suggests the possibility of a policy pivot.

Christopher Wong from OCBC Bank notes that allowing market forces more freedom may be a tactical shift aligned with upcoming trade talks. Meanwhile, economist Woods Chen of Yuanta Securities argues that letting the TWD appreciate might be Taiwan’s most rational economic strategy at this juncture.