Dollar Holds Firm as Hot U.S. Producer Inflation Dampens Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Bets

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Stronger-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data has cooled expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the dollar steady and U.S. bond yields elevated...

Dollar Gains Resilience Amid Producer Price Shock

The U.S. dollar steadied in Friday’s early Asia trading session after a significant rebound triggered by unexpectedly hot producer price index (PPI) data for July. The report showed the fastest rise in wholesale inflation in three years, leading traders to reassess the probability of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar’s gains in the previous session came at the expense of major peers. The euro slipped 0.5% and the British pound fell 0.3% on Thursday, though both currencies stabilized slightly in early Friday trading. The Japanese yen rose modestly to 147.395 per dollar following surprisingly strong GDP growth in Q2, reflecting improved domestic performance in Japan.

PPI Surprises Markets, Undermines Rate-Cut Euphoria

The July PPI report revealed a broad-based surge in prices for goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures remain more persistent than previously assumed. This came just after a relatively benign consumer price index (CPI) earlier in the week had encouraged speculation about a dovish Fed pivot.

The CPI had briefly boosted risk appetite and opened room for markets to price in up to a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. However, the producer price data quickly erased those expectations, signaling that the Fed remains trapped between fighting inflation and supporting a weakening labor market.

Rate Cut Odds Trimmed, Yields Rise

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September declined after the PPI data, though it remains the base case. A more aggressive 50-point cut scenario, which had gained traction earlier in the week, has now been priced out.

Short-end U.S. Treasury yields reacted accordingly. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.7262%, reflecting rising short-term rate expectations. The 10-year yield followed suit, reaching 4.2849%. These parallel moves across the yield curve suggest the bond market is repricing inflation risks more broadly, beyond near-term expectations.

Powell Faces Crucial Test at Jackson Hole

Joseph Carpuso of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia described the current mix of elevated inflation and a cooling job market as a "conundrum" for the Fed. This dilemma is expected to be addressed in Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference next week, where he may provide clues on how the central bank prioritizes between inflation containment and employment support.

Beyond monetary policy, traders are monitoring two critical risk areas. First, U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday could produce geopolitical shockwaves. Trump has floated optimism around a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict, but hinted that peace talks may require Ukraine’s direct involvement in future negotiations.

Second, attention is shifting toward the U.S. Treasury’s expected increase in debt issuance during September and October. How the bond market absorbs this influx will influence demand for the dollar and broader risk sentiment, particularly if inflation remains elevated.

Market Implications and Outlook

The U.S. dollar remains underpinned by shifting rate cut expectations and bond market dynamics. Traders are increasingly positioning for a cautious Fed, with recent inflation surprises outweighing earlier hopes of swift monetary easing.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether showed signs of recovery after sharp sell-offs on Thursday. Bitcoin had briefly touched a record high earlier in the week on speculation around looser U.S. monetary policy, but gains were erased once wholesale inflation re-entered the picture.

The outlook now hinges on Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole and subsequent economic data releases. Until then, the greenback is likely to retain its strength, particularly as investors hedge against inflation persistence and fiscal uncertainty in the second half of 2025.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

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Economic

Key Points:

● China’s July retail sales slowed to 3.7% YoY, missing forecasts and raising calls for further stimulus.

● Industrial output growth slowed to 5.7% YoY, aligning with weaker manufacturing PMI data.

● Unemployment rose to 5.2%, adding pressure on Beijing to address labor market weakness.

China Economic Data Eases Economic Growth Jitters

Fresh Chinese economic data offered mixed signals, soothing property market concerns but stoking fears of slowing consumer demand.

Housing Prices Fall at a Slower Pace

The housing sector continued to show tentative signs of recovery early in the third quarter. The House Price Index fell 2.8% year-on-year (YoY) in July after declining 3.2% in June. July’s data raised hopes that Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the real estate market had gained traction.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index was up 2.12% following the data release, underscoring investor relief.

HSMPI – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

Consumer Weakness Overshadows Property Gains

Crucial economic data from China highlighted the effect of US tariffs on the industrial sector, consumer sentiment, and domestic consumption.

● Retail Sales: +3.7 YoY in July compared with +4.8% in June. Forecast: +4.6%.

● Unemployment Rate: Rises from 5% in June to 5.2% in July. Forecast: 5.1%.

● Industrial Production: +5.7% YoY in July, down from +6.8% in June. Forecast: +5.9%.

Slower industrial production growth aligned with the July Manufacturing PMI surveys, which revealed a further drop in external demand. After impressive GDP growth in Q2 and export surge in July, today’s data suggest US tariffs are beginning to affect China’s terms of trade.Rising unemployment also aligned with the Manufacturing PMIs. Manufacturers continued to cut staffing levels amid rising cost pressures and narrowing profit margins. Deteriorating labor market conditions weighed on domestic consumption, despite Beijing’s efforts to boost consumer spending.

Market Reaction to China’s Economic Indicators

The Hang Seng Index and the AUD/USD pair reacted to the mixed data as trade uncertainties lingered.On Friday, August 15, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.8% to 25,315 before the data release. However, the Index dipped to a low of 25,286 in response to the numbers. At the time of writing, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.91% to 25,289.

Hang Seng Index – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

In the forex markets, the AUD/USD pair responded to the China stats, initially rising from $0.64919 to $0.65003 upon the release of the housing sector data. However, the weaker-than-expected retail sales, unemployment, and industrial production numbers weighed on the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD slid from $0.64967 to a low of $0.64893. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair was down 0.05% to $0.64894.

AUDUSD – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

Despite the mixed data, recent stimulus measures from Beijing, targeting domestic consumption, cushioned the downside. Furthermore, the latest data may raise expectations of further stimulus measures to bolster the economy.Earlier reports discussed recent stimulus measures and whether the measures would be sufficient to boost consumption despite labor market and consumer sentiment woes. Today’s data suggested more policy support would be needed.

Looking Ahead

Beijing’s stimulus measures remain crucial for Mainland China and Hong Kong-listed stocks. However, traders should also closely monitor trade headlines following the extension of the trade war truce. Track the latest developments and policy signals here. Given the latest data, a cautious approach is essential.

Source: FX Empire

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Economic

Industrial and Consumption Slowdown Underscores Economic Strain

China’s latest economic data for July signal a concerning deceleration in key growth drivers, intensifying doubts about the country’s ability to meet its 2025 growth target of around 5%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), industrial output expanded just 5.7% year-on-year, the weakest pace since November 2024 and notably below June’s 6.8% and consensus expectations of 5.9%.

Retail sales a critical barometer of household consumption slowed more sharply, rising only 3.7% compared to 4.8% in June. This marked the weakest performance since December 2024 and also missed forecasts for a 4.6% gain. The data reveal a correlation between weakened consumer sentiment and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, ranging from sluggish wage growth to unstable employment prospects.

These figures reflect a broader slowdown in domestic activity, undermining earlier signs of stabilization. Factory output, previously buoyed by front-loaded exports during a temporary U.S.-China trade truce, is now grappling with declining global demand and persistent deflationary pressures at home.

Deflation and Trade Risks Compound Policy Challenges

The drop in industrial momentum is exacerbated by deflation at the producer level. The producer price index (PPI) declined 3.6% year-on-year in July, matching June’s nearly two-year low. This persistent factory-gate deflation reduces producer margins and discourages capital spending, contributing to a feedback loop that weighs on both supply and demand.

Although a temporary trade truce with the United States has helped prevent triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods, U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade stance continues to cloud the external environment. The truce’s 90-day extension provides only limited relief, and manufacturers remain cautious about future investment and hiring, given the unpredictability of U.S. policy.

Investment and Weather Disruptions Drag on Broader Growth

Fixed asset investment another pillar of China’s growth model also disappointed. In the first seven months of 2025, investment rose only 1.6% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.7% and down from 2.8% growth in the first half. This signals a weakening of long-term corporate confidence and limited appetite for expansion, particularly in the private sector.

Beyond macroeconomic and policy-related factors, natural disruptions also played a role. China faced widespread extreme weather in July, including severe flooding and record-high heatwaves. These events disrupted industrial activity and further constrained retail operations, amplifying the economic slowdown.

Policy Responses Yet to Stabilize Sentiment

The Chinese government has recently escalated its policy support efforts, including fiscal spending and targeted pledges to boost consumption and curb destructive price competition. However, the July figures indicate these measures have not yet translated into material gains in consumer or industrial confidence.

The central policy challenge is now twofold: stimulating domestic demand while managing structural deflation, and doing so under the looming shadow of a fragile external environment. The interplay of weak consumer sentiment, negative producer pricing, and trade policy volatility reveals a cause-effect chain that complicates traditional stimulus efficacy.

Growth Outlook Weakens, Missed Targets Likely

According to the latest Reuters poll, China’s GDP is projected to slow to 4.5% in Q3 and further to 4.0% in Q4, pushing full-year growth down to 4.6% below the official 5.0% target. Growth is expected to decelerate even more in 2026 to 4.2%, underscoring the systemic nature of China’s economic headwinds.

The confluence of cooling exports, cautious consumers, reluctant investors, and unpredictable weather events suggests that the 2025 target is increasingly out of reach. The government’s capacity to meet its policy objectives now rests on whether it can implement broader, more impactful stimulus measures that not only boost short-term numbers but also restore underlying confidence across the economy.

Short-Term Pressures and Structural Headwinds Converge

July’s data illustrate a multi-dimensional slowdown in China’s economy, revealing both short-term disruptions and long-term structural concerns. The government faces an increasingly delicate balancing act: revive demand without stoking financial imbalances, and navigate trade threats while countering domestic deflation.

Unless Beijing significantly intensifies its policy responses or global conditions improve, the current trajectory points toward continued deceleration, signaling a need to reassess both growth strategies and structural reform priorities heading into 2026.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

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Stocks in Asia made an uneven recovery as higher-than-expected producer price inflation dampened expectations of a jumbo rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while U.S. bonds and equity futures stabilised. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3% after a report on Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which showed the Producer Price Index increased 0.9% in July on a month-over-month basis, well above economists' expectations. "What it did was to get rid of all the chat about a 50 basis point cut," said Mike Houlahan, director at Electus Financial Ltd in Auckland. The market is currently pricing in a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, compared with a 100% likelihood of a cut on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The chance of a jumbo 50 basis point cut fell to 0% from an earlier expectation of 5.7% a day ago. U.S. stock futures were flat in early Asian trading after ending a choppy trading session on Wall Street with mild gains on Thursday. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was down 1 basis point at 4.2829%. The two-year yield, which is sensitive to traders' expectations of Fed fund rates, slipped to 3.7304% compared with a U.S. close of 3.739%. Nasdaq futures extended losses into a third consecutive day, sliding 0.1% lower.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, retraced some gains after the PPI data release, last trading down 0.1% at 98.143. The Nikkei 225 rebounded 0.4% after snapping a six-day winning streak on Thursday with its biggest one-day selloff since April 11, as Japanese GDP data showed the economy expanding by an annualised 1.0% in the April-June quarter, beating analyst estimates. The dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen to 147.64. Australian shares were last up 0.2%, while stocks in Hong Kong were down 0.9% following losses on Thursday for U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds tracking Chinese companies.

The CSI 300 gave up early gains and was last trading flat after the release of weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data for July including retail sales and industrial production.Markets in India and South Korea are closed for public holidays. Cryptocurrency markets stabilised after a new record for bitcoin of $124,480.82 on Thursday proved fragile and promptly crumbled after falling short of its next key milestone. The digital currency was last up 0.7%, recovering some ground, while ether gained 1.7%. "Bitcoin's failure to conquer the $125,000 resistance signals another consolidation phase," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney. In commodities markets, Brent crude was flat at $66.94 per barrel ahead of a meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Gold was slightly lower as the markets digested the path of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which typically move in the opposite direction from bullion prices. Spot gold was trading up 0.1% at $3,339 per ounce. [GOL/] In early European trades, the pan-region futures were up 0.4%, German DAX futures were up 0.3% at 24,489, and FTSE futures were up 0.5%.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Economic

Hot U.S. PPI Shakes Market Confidence in Jumbo Rate Cut

A sharp rise in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) in July climbing 0.9% month-on-month and exceeding consensus forecasts has reignited concerns over inflation persistence and dulled prospects of an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Just a day prior, markets had priced in a full probability of a rate reduction in September, including modest odds of a 50-basis-point cut. However, that probability has now collapsed to zero, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, while the odds of a 25-basis-point move remain high at 92.1%.

This represents a clear cause-effect relationship: inflation surprises to the upside reduce the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to lower rates aggressively, prompting an immediate repricing in global risk assets and yields.

Asian Stocks Reflect Cautious Sentiment Amid Global Repricing

Asian equities responded with mixed signals. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index slipped 0.3%, mirroring the cautious tone among global investors. Japanese markets fared slightly better, with the Nikkei 225 rebounding 0.4% after its steepest drop in over four months, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.0% annualized for Q2.

In contrast, Chinese markets underperformed. The CSI 300 index erased early gains and traded flat following disappointing July data on retail sales and industrial output, reflecting persistent domestic demand weakness. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.9%, further dragged by declines in U.S.-listed ETFs tracking Chinese stocks.

Australian equities edged higher by 0.2%, but the overall regional picture remained one of fragility, influenced more by macro signals from the U.S. than local data, reinforcing a correlative pattern where Asian markets often react strongly to changes in U.S. monetary policy expectations.

Yields Ease, But Fed Watch Remains Tight

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields softened slightly. The 10-year yield declined to 4.2829%, while the more rate-sensitive two-year yield dipped to 3.7304%. These moves reflect a subtle easing in rate hike fears, yet they also signal uncertainty about how committed the Fed will remain to monetary easing amid mixed inflation signals.

The U.S. dollar lost some ground as well, with the dollar index falling 0.1% to 98.143. The greenback weakened by 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 147.64, indicating shifting interest rate differentials and speculative flows moving toward the yen, especially after upbeat Japanese GDP data.

Bitcoin Retreats Below Record, Gold Flatlines

Bitcoin’s rally faltered after setting a record at $124,480.82. The digital asset was last up 0.7%, with IG’s Tony Sycamore noting that the inability to break above the $125,000 resistance level suggests another consolidation phase is underway. Ether outperformed, rising 1.7%, reflecting some rotation within the crypto space.

Gold prices held steady around $3,339 per ounce, marginally up by 0.1%. With real interest rate expectations fluctuating, gold has remained highly sensitive to rate cut speculation, highlighting its inverse correlation with real yields. As inflation-adjusted rate expectations moderate, gold’s upside appears capped for now.

Oil Stable Ahead of U.S.-Russia Talks

In the commodities space, Brent crude was flat at $66.94 per barrel ahead of a highly anticipated meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The outcome could influence global supply dynamics and sanctions, with potential ripple effects on crude markets.

As Asia closed, early European futures indicated modest optimism. The pan-European index futures rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX futures gained 0.3% to 24,489, and FTSE futures climbed 0.5%, suggesting that investors are cautiously returning to risk assets while awaiting further clarity on U.S. rate policy.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Moderate, Markets Stay Volatile

The hotter-than-expected PPI print has shifted global investor sentiment, eliminating the chances of a jumbo rate cut in September but keeping hopes alive for a smaller easing move. This recalibration has introduced fresh volatility across Asian equities, currencies, and commodity markets.

With global macro forces particularly inflation and U.S. rate policy continuing to dominate trading decisions, near-term market direction will hinge on further inflation data and policy guidance. Until then, asset classes across the board are likely to remain reactive, rather than anticipatory, to evolving economic signals.

Source: Reuters

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MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Technical Analysis

Cryptocurrencies are volatile investment assets, in case people forget.After multiple weeks of sensational rallying, particularly in altcoins, Cryptocurrencies have started to find some profit-taking from their renewed highs.Bitcoin originally led the way higher, marking its own ATH towards the last days of July (initially around $123,200). Hence, a $10,000 consolidation range followed, creating perfect conditions for altcoins to catch up—and Ethereum did not lose the opportunity, rising up to 33% in 12 days.

Multiple headwinds had caused Cryptos to surge higher: between the US opening investment and regulations for institutions and the masses to invest much more freely in digital assets, the 2025 USD fall prompting diversification (especially if you add the increasing global government deficits), and a huge appetite for risk assets amid the AI/Tech boom, there was a lot to digest for people not exposed to cryptos.But this morning, some bad news knocked at the door of investors: Tariff-led inflation is starting to appear in the data.This morning’s PPI report has scared markets, but equities are holding decently well compared to cryptos.

For those who have not seen the preceding cycles, cryptocurrencies, being volatile and one of the most recent asset classes, tend to be sold off in advance, particularly as market levels and positioning reach some extreme form.It doesn’t mean that the Bull market is over yet, but there are some signs of hesitancy from Market participants.

Expect volatility to rise. and stay high.

Let’s take a look at the Daily picture for the Crypto market and then a few intra-day charts for some major cryptos with the ongoing selloff.

A daily overlook on the Crypto Market

Crypto Daily Performance, August 14, 2025 – Source: Finviz

The picture is bloody – watch your risk. Cryptos have seen bigger moves than this in the past, up or down.The move is still decently high in terms of % change, prompting some consolidation.A few Cryptocurrencies intraday charts including BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL

Bitcoin 8H Chart

Bitcoin 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is seeing some heavy-selling, down around $7,000 from its most recent highs that got attained just yesterday evening.8H RSI momentum is back to neutral but we will need to track if this is enough to stop the ongoing selling.Prices are currently entering the $116,000 to $117,500 Pivot Zone and with the MA 50, it will be key to watch if some dip buyers enter.If they don’t the strength of the ongoing selling could point to a retest of the $110,000 Support.

Levels for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

● $116,000 to $117,000 Pivot

● $110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone

● $100,000 Main support at psychological level

Resistance Levels:

● Current all-time high $124,596

● Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500

● $126,500 to $128,000 Fib-extension potential resistance (1.382% from April to May up-move)

Ethereum 8H Chart

Ethereum 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking at this chart really shows a strong picture, but profit-taking is not too surprising at these levels – particularly as we come at the target of a measured move of the first impulse post Israel-Iran War lows.Do watch out for euphoric leveraged longs that have accumulated throughout the highs which may magnify the correction. For now, we are at 23.6% of the second move up or 13.6% of the total move.

Watch the $4,200 level that served as consolidation before the run-higher for potential dip buying, but the way overbought RSI would need to get closer to neutral.Another key point to look at is a retest of the $3,900 – $4,000 pivot, a 61.8% of the whole move.

Levels for ETH trading:

Support Levels:

● $3,500 Support zone

● $4,000 Main pivot

● $4,200 consolidation zone

Resistance Levels:

Current highs $4,793

● $4,700 to $4,900 All-time high resistance zone

● $4,870 2021 record

● Potential resistance at 1.618% Fibonacci extension of April to July up-move

Solana 8H Chart

Solana 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Watch for the most recent double top around $200.

Levels for SOL trading:

Support Levels:

● $180 to $190 Major pivot

● Pivot turned support $165

● $140 to $150 Main support

Resistance Levels:

● Current highs $209,69

● $200 Psychological Level

● $295 January 2025 All-time highs

XRP 8H Chart

XRP hasn’t been able to hold the bullish support of the triangle formation mentioned in our last market overview.Watch momentum as it starts to get in bearish territory.Holding around $3.00 or just around it is still a decent sign and could be good for pullback buying if there are signs of rebound from here.However keep in mind that XRP is up 500% since November 2024 and 90% since April 2025, so further correction could be into play.

Levels for XRP trading:

Support Levels:

● Previous all-time Highs – $3.39 imminent resistance

● Current ATH resistance around $3.66

● $4.00 to $4.30 Potential Resistance

Resistance Levels:

● Current $3.00 Major Pivot Zone (Confluence with 4H MA 50 and 200)

● Resistance turned Support – 2.65

● May support 2.20 to $2.30

Source: OANDA

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Economic

BOJ Rate Path Under Scrutiny Amid Growing Market Speculation

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized on Friday that any potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must be evaluated against the backdrop of the nation's broader economic conditions and inflation trajectory. Speaking at a press conference, Kato acknowledged the private sector's growing calls for monetary tightening but stopped short of endorsing such action, reiterating the central bank’s independence in policy decisions.

Kato’s remarks come at a time when the market is increasingly pricing in a near-term BOJ rate hike. These expectations gained momentum after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the BOJ was "behind the curve" on inflation and likely to raise rates. The comment triggered a rally in the yen and a rise in Japanese government bond yields, indicating that investors interpreted the statement as a signal of policy tightening ahead.

Government Distances Itself From Bessent’s Comments

Japan’s economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa clarified that Bessent’s remarks were not intended to pressure the BOJ. According to Akazawa, the statement was a personal forecast, not an international directive, and should be seen as commentary rather than policy guidance. This distinction is important as it underscores the Japanese government's effort to preserve the perception of BOJ autonomy a critical factor in maintaining the central bank's credibility and independence.

This response highlights a correlative relationship between international commentary and Japanese market movements: while Bessent’s remarks did not aim to influence BOJ actions, they inadvertently shaped short-term investor sentiment, creating market momentum that the Japanese government now seeks to temper.

Yen Strengthens as Markets Reprice BOJ Trajectory

The yen gained against the U.S. dollar following Bessent’s comments, reflecting market anticipation of a potential shift in BOJ policy. Higher JGB yields accompanied this move, further reinforcing the belief that the BOJ could soon pivot from its ultra-loose stance. Although these market reactions are speculative, they demonstrate a causal connection between rate expectations and currency strength particularly in a global context where other major central banks have already embarked on tightening cycles.

While speculation about a BOJ rate hike is rising, Japan’s finance leadership remains cautious. Kato’s refusal to comment directly on Bessent’s remarks, combined with Akazawa’s reassurance of BOJ independence, signals that any policy shift will be internally driven and highly contingent on domestic data.

With inflation risks still under evaluation and Japan’s recovery path uneven, the government is not rushing to align with international rate normalization trends. Instead, Tokyo is reinforcing a message of deliberate, evidence-based policymaking even as the global financial community watches for signs that Japan may finally exit its prolonged era of ultra-low interest rates.

Source: Reuters

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Data

Dollar Holds Firm as Hot U.S. Producer Inflation Dampens Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Bets

Dollar Gains Resilience Amid Producer Price Shock

PPI Surprises Markets, Undermines Rate-Cut Euphoria

Rate Cut Odds Trimmed, Yields Rise

Powell Faces Crucial Test at Jackson Hole

Market Implications and Outlook

Source: Reuters

China Retail Sales Slip, Industrial Output And Jobs Data Weigh; Hang Seng Dips

China Economic Data Eases Economic Growth Jitters

Housing Prices Fall at a Slower Pace

HSMPI – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

Consumer Weakness Overshadows Property Gains

Market Reaction to China’s Economic Indicators

Hang Seng Index – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

AUDUSD – 5 Minute Chart – 150825

Looking Ahead

Source: FX Empire

China’s Economic Momentum Falters as July Data Reveal Sharp Slowdown in Output and Consumption

Industrial and Consumption Slowdown Underscores Economic Strain

Deflation and Trade Risks Compound Policy Challenges

Policy Responses Yet to Stabilize Sentiment

Growth Outlook Weakens, Missed Targets Likely

Short-Term Pressures and Structural Headwinds Converge

Source: Reuters

Asia Markets Stumble As Hot PPI Print Reins In Fed Rate Cut Hype

Source: Yahoo Finance

Asia Markets Wobble as Surging U.S. PPI Tempers Hopes for Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts

Hot U.S. PPI Shakes Market Confidence in Jumbo Rate Cut

Asian Stocks Reflect Cautious Sentiment Amid Global Repricing

Yields Ease, But Fed Watch Remains Tight

Bitcoin Retreats Below Record, Gold Flatlines

Oil Stable Ahead of U.S.-Russia Talks

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Moderate, Markets Stay Volatile

Source: Reuters

Imminent Profit-Taking In Cryptocurrencies – What’s The Story

Expect volatility to rise. and stay high.

Crypto Daily Performance, August 14, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Bitcoin 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Ethereum 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Solana 8H Chart, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Source: OANDA

Japan's Finance Minister Urges Caution on BOJ Rate Hike Amid Global Speculation

BOJ Rate Path Under Scrutiny Amid Growing Market Speculation

Government Distances Itself From Bessent’s Comments

Yen Strengthens as Markets Reprice BOJ Trajectory

Source: Reuters

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