Dollar hedging frenzy fades, bringing relief to greenback

Forex

Summary:

The dollar is rebounding as foreign investors sharply slow their post-tariff hedging rush. Hedging remains above normal but no longer pressures the greenback, with high costs and calmer markets reducing demand.

Just months after a U.S. tariff shock whacked the dollar, a rush by overseas investors to protect U.S. holdings from the sliding currency has slowed sharply - a vote of confidence that's helping the greenback recover from its worst rout in years.

While analysts say investor hedging is higher than it has been historically, such activity has slowed from the period immediately after the April 2 "Liberation Day", when U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariffs.

At that time, foreign investors holding U.S. assets were hit by tumbling stock and bond prices and a plummeting dollar. Nimble investors moved to hedge against a further dollar decline and the trend was expected to gain momentum. Instead, it has slowed, allowing the U.S. currency to stabilise.

"The conversations we're having with clients now suggest that these (hedging) flows are less likely to come as imminently as the conversations we had back in May suggested they would," said David Leigh, Nomura's global head of FX and emerging markets.

The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against other major currencies, has rallied nearly 4% since the end of June, when it was nursing losses of almost 11% after its biggest first-half dive since the early 1970s.

Dollar hedging frenzy fades, bringing relief to greenback_1

Chart shows the dollar index since mid 2024

Data on hedging is limited and analysts extrapolate from scarce public figures and numbers compiled by banks and custodians.

Analysis of client positioning by BNY, one of the world's largest custodians, shows they were very long U.S. assets in early 2025, suggesting they didn't anticipate much additional dollar weakness and were happy to operate without much hedging.

That changed in April and hedging is now higher than normal, although lower than in late 2023 when markets began to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts.

"The dollar diversification story this year is more talked about than actioned upon," said Geoff Yu, BNY's senior market strategist.

Dollar hedging frenzy fades, bringing relief to greenback_2

Chart uses BNY data showing their clients' dollar positioning

Other giant custodians reported a similar picture.

State Street Markets' analysis of the assets State Street has under custody and administration showed that as of end October, foreign equity managers’ hedging of their dollar holdings was 24%, a 4 percentage-point increase since February, but well below the 30%-plus hedge ratio they have seen in the past.

They too said it had slowed in recent weeks.

It varies by market too. A November National Australia Bank survey of Australian pension funds found "no material change in hedging behaviour towards U.S. equities".

Danish central bank data, however, shows hedging by pension funds there has stabilised after increasing post-April.

Columbia Threadneedle CIO William Davies said that the firm initially moved to protect its U.S. stock holdings against further dollar weakness but has since unwound some of its hedges, betting the currency won't decline further.

NO SNOWBALL EFFECT

Hedging itself causes currencies to move - adding protection against dollar downside to a previously unhedged position effectively involves selling the greenback, and vice versa.

If combined with shifting interest rates, the effect can be dramatic - a dollar selloff can spark more hedging, sending it lower still.

"People, earlier this year, were getting excited that this snowball effect would develop, though in the end it didn't really," said HSBC's Paul Mackel, global head of FX research.

For next year, "it's something to keep an eye on, but it's not our baseline scenario".

Still investor behaviour may be shifting. BlackRock estimates that 38% of flows into Europe, Middle East and Africa-listed U.S. equity exchange-traded products this year have been into those with FX hedges, a meaningful change from 2024 when 98% of flows were unhedged.

COST, CORRELATIONS AND COMPLICATIONS

Cost is also a factor, and depends on rate differentials and so varies by market. This may help explain some of the reluctance to hedge positions.

Japanese investors pay around an annualised 3.7% to hedge against dollar weakness, estimates Van Luu, Russell Investments' global head of solutions strategy for fixed income and FX.

This is a sizeable sum - if dollar/yen holds steady for a year, an investor is down 3.7% versus an unhedged peer. The equivalent cost for a euro-funded investor is around 2%.

"I have a rule of thumb for euro investors, if the cost is around 1% they don't care much, but if it's 2% then it becomes a factor," Luu said.

Asset correlations matter too. Traditionally the dollar strengthens when stocks fall, meaning overseas investors are effectively protected on their U.S. positions.

That did not happen in April, contributing to the hedging rush. This month, the dollar held steady as stocks tumbled again.

Dollar hedging frenzy fades, bringing relief to greenback_3

Chart shows S&P 500 and dollar index, flagging times their moves have overlapped

Change is also complicated for the many investors who aim to outperform a fixed benchmark if that benchmark is unhedged.

Fidelity International recommends Europe-based investors move gradually towards hedging 50% of their dollar exposure, but Salman Ahmed, head of macro and strategic asset allocation, notes it is a "very involved" process which can require governance and benchmark changes.

If interest rates move against the dollar and it starts to weaken again, and hedges become cheaper, pressure for change may build.

"There's still lots of scope for dollar investments to be hedged, whether that comes to pass and how quickly is an open question," said Nomura's Leigh.

"That's what the FX market's trying to get its head around."

Reporting by Alun John and Naomi Rovnick; additional reporting by Elisa Martinuzzi; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Kirsten Donovan

Reuters: source

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Justin

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Once again, Europe finds itself on the outside looking in as a peace plan for Ukraine takes shape.

European Council President Antonio Costa confirmed at a press conference in South Africa today that the EU had not received communication about the US-Russia plan in advance. Now, the bloc is scrambling to respond, with the crisis set to overshadow the G20 meeting that starts tomorrow in Johannesburg.

In a phone call around lunchtime today, Kyiv's biggest European allies lined up with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to reject key elements of the plan.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France's Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Keir Starmer agreed that Ukraine's armed forces must remain capable of defending its sovereignty and that the current line of contact should be the starting point for any peace talks, according to a statement from the German government. Zelenskiy is also due to speak to Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof later today.

Leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will meet in person on the sidelines of the G20 tomorrow to map out next steps. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who's earned a reputation as a Donald Trump whisperer, is also expected to fly in. The Europeans are hoping for a phone call with the US president, who has shunned the G20 gathering.

If this all sounds familiar, it's because it is. The last-minute diplomacy on display is reminiscent of the frantic efforts that unfolded in August when EU leaders sought to get Trump's ear before and after his summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. They also eventually managed an impromptu meeting in the White House a few days later.

The 28-point peace plan, obtained by Bloomberg, includes major concessions to Moscow. Among its proposals are that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be "recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States," while Ukraine would be required to give up any hope of NATO membership.

Zelenskiy said in his own statement this afternoon after the call with European leaders that Ukraine is "working on the document prepared by the American side," adding that it must ensure a "real and dignified peace."

As Ukraine peace talks enter a crucial phase this weekend, the EU is still struggling to finalize its own nascent plan to tap immobilized Russian assets. The Commission said today that its work on the plan would continue regardless of the new US-Russia peace plan.

With the US and Russia increasingly in the driving seat, Europe is feeling the pressure now more than ever to get its proposal over the line.

In the eight years since French President Emmanuel Macron announced a flurry of defense projects with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, two have been scrapped, one shelved indefinitely and two, including the Future Combat Air System plane, hit with delays and infighting between partners. The problems with these projects may require a new approach, such as reworking them or focusing on suppliers' skillsets rather than nationality, to overcome self-interest and achieve success, writes Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lionel Laurent.

Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to a new paper from experts including a senior Bank of England economist. It shows that the 2016 vote to leave the EU has cost the country between 6% and 8% of GDP per person over the last decade, a hit of £180 billion to £240 billion.

Preparations for a financial-market meltdown by Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban are baffling investors who see little signs of a looming collapse in the country, one of the world's best-performing emerging markets. The five-term premier has spoken repeatedly about the need for a "US financial shield" to protect Hungary — whose sovereign debt is backed by investment-grade ratings — in case of a speculative attack. He even drew parallels with Argentina, which has secured a lifeline from US President Donald Trump.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Europe’s economy is “geared towards a world that is gradually disappearing”, according to a warning from Christine Lagarde that the EU needs reforms to spur growth.

The president of the European Central Bank (ECB) said the EU’s dependence on international trade had left it vulnerable, as major partners had turned away from the trade that made the bloc’s exporters wealthy.

Donald Trump has led a global turn towards protectionism and against globalisation, with steep tariffs imposed on almost every trading partner. At the same time, China has used its dominance of production of certain critical materials and products to exert pressure.

Lagarde argued that Europe was vulnerable because of a “dependency on third countries for our security and the supply of critical raw materials”. She cited China’s control of the supply of rare earth metals that are crucial in electric motors and wind turbines, as well as the “choke point” of power chips made by Nexperia in China that threatened to shut down production across the global car industry.

Speaking at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, Germany, Lagarde said Europe had failed to address its own problems. Policymakers had instead allowed its weaknesses to “erode growth quietly, as each new shock nudges us onto a slightly lower trajectory”.

“Our internal market has stood still, especially in the areas that will shape future growth, like digital technology and artificial intelligence, as well as the areas that will finance it, such as capital markets,” she said.

Europe also faced a “vicious circle” of its own savers allocating money to US stocks, helping the American economy to advance faster than the EU and leaving “stagnating productivity at home and growing dependence on others”, she said.

Lagarde did highlight some European strengths as well, including a resilient labour market, increasing digital investment, and government spending, particularly on defence in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that has counteracted economic slowdown.

Part of Lagarde’s prescription for recovery was lowering barriers to services and goods trade between EU countries. Those barriers are equivalent to a 100% tariff on services and 65% on goods, according to ECB analysis. Lowering those barriers to the same level as the Netherlands – a relatively open economy – would fully make up for the hit from US tariffs, she said.

She called for mutual recognition of regulated companies, allowing them to sell across Europe when authorised by any one country. She also said the EU should adopt qualified majority voting on tax, preventing any single member state from vetoing changes.

She argued that benefits would include allowing the harmonisation of VAT, making it easier for smaller European companies to gain access to the whole EU market without having to comply with 27 different tax regimes.

Source: Theguardian

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Justin

Forex

Political

Economic

Standing before US-based Pakistanis in June at a dinner in Washington, Asim Munir beamed after meeting US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

Pakistan's most powerful army chief in decades told attendees that Trump had saved South Asia from catastrophe, crediting him with brokering a ceasefire that stopped a May clash with fellow nuclear power India, according to a person at the event, who asked not to be identified because it was private. Munir said he told Trump that Pakistan was ready for a new era of cooperation in areas like critical minerals and cryptocurrency after relations hit a fresh low under President Joe Biden, the person added.

A year ago, India was a central piece of the US's strategy to work with allies and partners to pressure China, with Pakistan largely an afterthought. Now US-Pakistan relations are on the rise as Trump hits India with high tariffs, upending more than two decades of US policy aimed at improving relations with the world's biggest democracy.

As Trump spars with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he's embraced Munir, the formerly obscure commander elevated to a national hero in the wake of the India clash. Pakistan lawmakers this month passed a constitutional amendment granting Munir, who holds the title of Field Marshal, lifelong immunity and control over all of the nation's armed forces, cementing his position as its strongest military leader since former dictator Mohammed Ayub Khan in the 1960s.

Trump now regularly praises Munir when he speaks about the India-Pakistan conflict, calling him a "great guy" and putting him on equal footing with Modi, who has rejected the US president's claims that he helped broker a ceasefire.

The shift in stance has revived Pakistan as a geopolitical power in the region. A close partner with China, which has poured money into the South Asian nation over the past decade, Pakistan signed a mutual-defense pact with Saudi Arabia in September and has mulled sending troops to the peacekeeping effort in Gaza.

Trump's shift more broadly has driven a wedge into what had been a largely bipartisan consensus in Washington to court India as a counterweight to China. Kurt Campbell, US deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration, told Bloomberg Television this month that "almost all of our strategic interests lie with India" and the "wholesale collapse" of relations between Trump and Modi would likely lead to some lasting damage.

At the same time, a healthy US-Pakistan relationship could also give the US leverage over India, according to Nisha Biswal, partner at The Asia Group and former US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs during the Obama administration. Ultimately, she said, "both relationships have to stand on their own merits."

"The extent to which the US can exert leverage and pressure on Pakistan, and has the relationship to do so in times of crisis, is an important aspect," she said. "You don't want a Pakistan that is impervious to US influence."

Across Pakistan, the shift in the nation's mood since the clash is palpable. Heroic portraits of Munir and other leaders adorn billboards, banners and magazine covers. Images of triumphant Pakistani aircraft downing Indian fighters are on display in government buildings in Islamabad as well as the atrium of the State Bank of Pakistan museum in Karachi. An artist's depiction of Pakistani warplanes zooming over a trio of battered Indian Rafale jets sits alongside historic rupee notes and portraits of graying central bankers.

In recent interviews with Bloomberg News, Pakistani officials in the government, the military and businesses described a sense of national renewal. Many see the India fight as an unqualified victory, backed by Islamabad's claims — denied by New Delhi but acknowledged by Trump — to have downed seven Indian fighters. The clash, they said, has united Pakistan, brought global prestige and opened new doors in world capitals.

"We defended ourselves and we won," Bilal Azhar Kayani, Pakistan's state minister of finance, said in an interview in Islamabad. "But in addition to that, the way we have conducted ourselves diplomatically in a changing and fluid global landscape has been commendable."

One outcome of the May clash has been even firmer alignment between Pakistan's military and civilian leaders, according to Jay Truesdale, chief executive at geopolitical risk consulting firm TDI and a former chief of staff at the US Embassy in Islamabad. That dynamic was underscored in September, when Trump hosted both Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the Oval Office at the same time.

"The way the Americans intervened and the outcome that took place, the Pakistanis can claim that they had a victory, and this has further galvanized the unity of effort," Truesdale said.

US officials say they aren't prioritizing Pakistan over India, and officials in Washington and New Delhi appear close to reaching a trade deal that would lower tariffs from 50% — among the highest rates in the world. "I don't think anything we're doing with Pakistan comes at the expense of our relationship or friendship with India, which is deep, historic and important," Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last month.

Still, Rubio acknowledged an opportunity with Pakistan. "Our job is to try to figure out how many countries we can find, how we can work with on things of common interest," he said.

Pakistan and the US have been on-and-off partners since the Cold War, when Washington was looking for allies to stop the spread of communism. In 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger used a Pakistani plane from Islamabad for a secret diplomatic mission to China. In the 1980s, Pakistan cooperated with the US to funnel support to Afghan insurgents battling the Soviet Union. Pakistan later provided logistical support in the US's so-called war on terror.

As China emerged as Washington's chief rival, successive administrations drew closer to India, and ties with Pakistan — a longtime friend to Beijing — fell by the wayside. US-Pakistan ties further soured after the discovery of Osama bin Laden in a Pakistani compound, leading to his death in a daring American operation in 2011.

This year saw a sudden reversal. In a speech to Congress in March, Trump praised Pakistan for arresting the alleged mastermind behind a bombing in Kabul in 2021 that killed 13 US troops. Then in May, when tensions between India and Pakistan exploded into a four-day armed conflict, Trump claimed he intervened and brokered a ceasefire, a boast that left Pakistan elated, but Indian officials fuming. Pakistan went on to nominate Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, while Trump referred to Munir as "my favorite field marshal."

Officials in Islamabad meanwhile prioritized areas close to Trump, including cryptocurrency and counterterrorism.

During his June visit to Washington, Munir said he would work with the White House on cryptocurrency. Just months earlier, officials of World Liberty Financial Partners — a crypto venture with ties to the Trump family — signed an initial cooperation agreement. In July, Pakistan and the US reached a trade agreement that left the nation's goods with a 19% tariff, lower than other countries in Asia and well below India's levy.

Pakistan has been shoring up its security on other fronts. Sharif signed an economic pact with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last month, shortly after reaching a mutual-defense pact with the nation.

"Not only the Americans, but the world everywhere, they find in Pakistan right now a leadership that — despite all the challenges — is handling the affairs in a great manner," General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, Pakistan's top military spokesman, said in an interview in Islamabad.

A challenge for Pakistan is whether it can trust Trump and balance relations with the US and China, Islamabad's top supplier of weapons, infrastructure and aid. Sharif met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing during a regional summit in September, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi also met with Munir a few months earlier.

"China has been a longstanding partner, so has the US," Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview in Islamabad. "They both know that we are well engaged on both ends."

Among the most touted sectors for investment have been Pakistan's resource wealth. Trump in July touted Pakistan's "massive" oil reserves, and a top US diplomat in Pakistan in August said US firms are showing interest in the sector, which has seen production fall for years.

A more promising sector is minerals. One prominent new US partner to date on this front is US Strategic Metals, a Missouri-based firm that in September signed a memorandum of understanding with an army-owned firm to develop Pakistan's rare earth resources.

The deal came together after an August meeting with Munir with other business executives in Florida, according to the company's commercial director, Mike Hollomon. Munir urged him to visit Pakistan "as fast as you can," he said.

Weeks later, Hollomon and other executives were in Islamabad meeting with Pakistani port operators. In October, the company began taking deliveries of small quantities of minerals for quality checks. The longer-term plan is to build rare-earths refining capacity in Pakistan, Hollomon said.

"We'd like this to become a political win for America," he said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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James Whitman

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The United States has drafted a 28-point peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine which is being studied by Kyiv, Moscow and interested countries in Europe.

The plan, seen by Reuters, gives Russia - which is inching forward on the battlefield and controls almost one-fifth of Ukraine - much of what it wants.

But it also contains some unappetising proposals for Moscow which would leave it short of fully achieving its stated war aims and require its forces to pull back from some areas that they have captured.

Following are some of the points that are likely to prove contentious.

TERRITORY

Under the proposals, Ukraine would have to cede the rest of the Donetsk region to Russia, a large area including the fortress cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which Ukraine still controls.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has previously ruled out gifting Moscow any territory.

The agreement would also permanently lock in Russia's battlefield gains since February 2022 in the four Ukrainian regions it claims as its own - Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Donetsk. Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea would become permanent too.

Ukraine would also have to compromise on the status of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, which would be restarted and its power shared 50-50 between Russia and Ukraine.

But recognition of those territories as Russian would be "de facto" - a status that Moscow might not want to accept.

Russia would be left without full control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where a line would be drawn along the current front line freezing the status quo.

Russian troops would not be allowed to garrison the part of Donetsk that Ukraine would hand over. This would become a neutral demilitarised buffer zone controlled by and belonging to Moscow.

Russian forces would also have to withdraw from two other regions where they have taken territory - Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk.

Moscow says its forces have captured the city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region although Kyiv has denied this. Under the U.S. proposals, Moscow would have to retreat from Kupiansk.

MONEY

Western governments have frozen about $300 billion of Russian assets, mostly in Europe, to punish Moscow for the war.

Russia wants those assets unfrozen and has threatened action against the European Union, which has produced a plan to issue a loan to Ukraine using cash balances accrued from the frozen securities.

But under the U.S. plan, Russia would have to hand over $100 billion to Washington which would lead an effort to rebuild Ukraine, with the U.S. reaping 50% of the profits from that work.

Another chunk of the frozen Russian assets would be ploughed into a joint U.S.-Russia investment vehicle, from which Moscow would get some benefit.

But the plan would give neither Russia nor Ukraine an entirely free hand when it comes to spending the frozen funds.

It could also torpedo EU plans to use the frozen funds to help Kyiv, though Russia would not get immediate relief from international sanctions: sanctions would be lifted in phases and on a case-by-case basis after discussions.

Ukraine would be forced to swallow a bitter pill by not being able under the plan to seek reparations for war damage from Russia through the courts.

SECURITY

Under the plan, Zelenskiy would have to permanently drop one of his most cherished ambitions - for Ukraine to join the U.S.-led NATO military alliance. NATO would agree to never admit Ukraine and the Ukrainian constitution would be amended to reflect that.

NATO itself would commit not to expand further, a key Russian demand, while there would be an "expectation" that Moscow would not invade its neighbours, cemented in a non-aggression pact between Russia and Ukraine and Europe.

Ukraine is likely to be disappointed by the vague language on the security guarantees it would receive from Washington. Beyond calling them "robust" and saying Kyiv would have to pay for them, there is no mention of what they might entail.

NATO troops could not be stationed in Ukraine, and Kyiv would have to commit to not becoming a nuclear-armed state under the proposals.

Ukraine would also be forced to cap the size of its army at 600,000 troops. It has previously resisted suggestions the size of its military should be limited.

The 600,000 figure is considerably less than the roughly 1 million people Ukraine says it has under arms. Russia has previously demanded Ukraine's army be cut to below 100,000 troops.

JUSTICE

Ukrainian politicians have long talked about holding Russia accountable for its actions, but under the plan Kyiv would have to drop plans to pursue any legal cases seeking to prove that Moscow committed war crimes, something Russia denies.

Ukraine may also dislike proposals that would see Russia readmitted to the Group of Eight nations and re-integrated into the global economy.

Another clause talks of large-scale investment and business cooperation between the U.S. and Russia in areas such as rare earths, energy and the Arctic.

The plan also says Ukraine must be "de-Nazified," a reference to what Moscow says are nationalist anti-Russian military units and politicians. Kyiv says this portrayal is bogus.

The plan, without referencing Ukraine, says "all Nazi ideology or activity should be renounced or forbidden."

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Forex

The yen found some support on Friday as Japanese officials stepped up their verbal intervention to stem the currency's decline, while the dollar was a touch softer but on track for its first weekly rise in three weeks.

The yen popped higher after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said intervention was a possibility to deal with excessively volatile and speculative moves, leaving traders on alert for signs of yen buying from Tokyo.

"The warning overnight from the Japanese government was certainly a step up from what we've seen recently," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG.

"That's helping provide more support for the yen in the near term."

The Japanese currency rose 0.4% to 156.92 per dollar, though it remained close to Thursday's 10-month trough of 157.90 and was still on track to lose 1.5% for the week.

Much of the focus in currency markets this week has been on the yen, which has plumbed fresh lows as investors worry about the nation's worsening fiscal position brought about by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's lavish spending policies.

Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package on Friday.

"The elephant in the room now is mounting intervention risks," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho. "Interventions are likely to be opportunistic and short-lived. Essentially, speed bumps, not barricades."

Tokyo last spent 5.53 trillion yen, or nearly $37 billion, in July 2024 to intervene in the foreign exchange market to haul the yen away from 38-year lows.

Against the euro, the yen was pinned near its lowest since the introduction of the single currency and last stood at 181.04.

FED CUT BETS RECEDE

In the broader market, the dollar was set for a weekly gain as investors trimmed bets on further policy easing from the Federal Reserve next month.

The release of a delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday painted a mixed picture of the country's labour market, showing employment growth accelerated in September, though the jobless rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level in four years.

That reinforced the view that the Fed is likely to refrain from cutting rates at its December meeting, as policymakers continue to navigate through an economic fog brought about by the U.S. government shutdown.

"This was the last payroll report before the December Fed meeting and the report did not provide enough clarity for the Fed to cut in December," said Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar.

Kumar added that he expects the Fed to "skip" the December meeting but remain on an easing path.

Markets are now pricing in just a 27% chance of the Fed easing rates next month.

The euro stood at $1.1538 and was on track for a weekly decline of 0.7%.

It held steady after preliminary PMI data showed euro zone business activity grew steadily this month, even as manufacturing activity slipped into contractionary territory.

Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.3092, though it was set to lose 0.8% for the week, with investors anxiously awaiting Britain's upcoming budget, a major test for the nation's currency and bond markets.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, flirted with a 5-1/2-month peak and last stood at 100.13.

The Australian dollar was up 0.1% at $0.6447 after sliding 0.6% on Thursday on a broad risk-off mood in markets. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% to $0.5605, having also lost 0.4% on Thursday.

The two Antipodean currencies were set for weekly losses of more than 1%.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell to a seven-month low of $82,032.

Source: reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Enters Crisis Mode Amid Steep November Losses

Bitcoin is now poised for its worst month in over three years, shedding 23% of its value in November and falling as low as $81,629 on Friday before rebounding modestly to $84,166. Ether followed suit, dropping below $2,700 at one point. The sharp drawdown mirrors the volatility seen during the 2022 crypto crash, when the TerraUSD stablecoin collapse triggered a chain reaction of bankruptcies culminating in the fall of FTX.

The severity of this month’s plunge signals more than routine volatility it reflects a loss of structural confidence in key segments of the crypto ecosystem, particularly in leveraged derivatives markets and institutional flows.

Liquidations Spark Systemic Deleveraging Cycle

The causal driver of this month’s collapse was a massive wave of forced liquidations. On October 10 alone, $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were unwound, triggering an estimated $1.5 trillion loss in the broader digital asset market. The momentum has only worsened: within the past 24 hours, an additional $2 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, according to CoinGlass.

This unwinding points to a cascading deleveraging loop, where declining prices trigger margin calls, which in turn force further selling especially in perpetual futures markets. Open interest in these futures contracts has now fallen 35% from its October peak of $94 billion.

The correlation between leveraged position collapses and Bitcoin's price decline is causal: as liquidity is drained and traders are flushed out, market depth weakens, amplifying price sensitivity to new selling pressure.

Institutional Outflows Undermine 'Buy the Dip' Thesis

Despite favorable regulatory sentiment under the Trump administration and previous enthusiasm for institutional adoption, recent behavior from large players has been cautious. A consortium of 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw net redemptions of $903 million on Thursday the second-largest daily outflow since these products launched in early 2024.

This reluctance from institutional investors to “buy the dip” reflects a shift in risk appetite, likely tied to concerns over liquidity, valuation, and exposure to further downside. Hedge fund managers and ETF strategists appear unwilling to step in amid uncertainty over where the liquidation wave may bottom.

Broader Market Volatility Compounds Crypto Pressure

The crypto rout is also unfolding in an unsupportive macro environment. U.S. equities, which had been buoyed by Nvidia’s strong earnings and AI-related optimism, reversed gains as concerns mounted over stretched tech valuations and doubts resurfaced about a possible December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

This macro backdrop of elevated volatility and monetary tightening uncertainty is particularly damaging for risk assets like Bitcoin, which are often treated as high-beta proxies for market sentiment.

Strategic Holders Face New Pressure

MicroStrategy, one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders, closed 5% lower on Thursday. According to IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore, the market may be deliberately testing MicroStrategy’s pain threshold, especially given its leveraged exposure. A further slide could bring Bitcoin closer to the firm’s average cost basis, potentially triggering margin calls and another wave of forced selling.

If the market breaches this threshold, the effects could ripple across investor psychology and corporate balance sheets, further undermining support levels.

A Structural Test of Crypto Market Resilience

Bitcoin’s November collapse illustrates a confluence of factors: cascading liquidations, institutional exit, macro fragility, and the fragility of leveraged crypto infrastructure. While comparisons to 2022 are becoming increasingly apt, today’s decline is compounded by the fact that even under a supportive political climate, structural demand has failed to absorb selling pressure.

Unless volatility stabilizes and institutional confidence returns, the downward momentum could deepen further into December. In this context, the crypto market is undergoing not just a technical correction, but a confidence stress test one that may determine the viability of its post-FTX recovery narrative.