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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6861.89
6861.89
6861.89
6878.28
6858.25
-8.51
-0.12%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47876.11
47876.11
47876.11
47971.51
47771.72
-78.87
-0.16%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23580.68
23580.68
23580.68
23698.93
23579.88
+2.57
+ 0.01%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
99.070
99.150
99.070
99.110
98.730
+0.120
+ 0.12%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16279
1.16286
1.16279
1.16717
1.16245
-0.00147
-0.13%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33156
1.33165
1.33156
1.33462
1.33087
-0.00156
-0.12%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4191.58
4191.99
4191.58
4218.85
4175.92
-6.33
-0.15%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.043
59.073
59.043
60.084
58.892
-0.766
-1.28%
--

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German Spy Chief: No Need To 'Break' With US Over Security Policy

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United Arab Emirates Official To Reuters: The United Arab Emirates Asserts That The Governance And Territorial Integrity Of Yemen Must Be Determined By Yemenis

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United Arab Emirates Official To Reuters: The United Arab Emirates's Position On The Yemen Crisis Is In Line With Saudi Arabia In Supporting A Political Process Based On An Initiative Backed By Gulf States

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French Presidential Residence Elysee: Work Will Be Intensified To Provide Ukraine With Robust Security Guarantees And To Plan Measures For The Reconstruction Of Ukraine

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French Presidential Residence Elysee: Meeting Of Leaders In The E3 Format And President Zelensky Allowed For The Continuation Of Joint Work On The US Plan

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US Dollar Extends Gains Versus Yen After Japan Earthquake, Last Up 0.2% At 155.64 Yen

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US Natural Gas Futures Drop 6% On Less Cold Forecasts, Near-Record Output

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Russian Central Bank: Sets Official Rouble Rate For December 9 At 77.2733 Roubles Per USA Dollar (Previous Rate - 76.0937)

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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russia Will Restrict Gold Exports Starting In 2026

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US Dollar Touches Session High Versus Yen On Earthquake News, Last Up 0.5% At 155.81%

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NHK: A 40-centimeter-high Tsunami Has Reached Mutsuki Port In Aomori, Japan

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ICE Cotton Stocks Totalled To 13971 - December 08, 2025

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Japan Prime Minister Takaichi: Trying To Gather Information After Quake

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UK Trade Minister To Visit US This Week For Talks On Tariffs

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Head Of Yemen's Anti-Houthi Presidential Council Says Actions Of Southern Transitional Council Across South Yemen Undermines Legitimacy Of Internationally-Recognised Government

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Carvana Rose 9.1% And Crh Rose 6.8% As Both Companies Were Added To The S&P 500 Index

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Japanese Regulators Say No Problems Have Been Found At The Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant

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KYODO News: Some Tohoku Shinkansen Services Have Been Suspended Following The Earthquake In Japan

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The Japan Meteorological Agency Has Issued Tsunami Warnings For The Central Pacific Coast Of Hokkaido, The Pacific Coast Of Aomori Prefecture, And Iwate Prefecture

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Euro Hits Session High Versus Yen Following Strong Japan Quake, Last Up 0.3% At 181.36 Yen

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          Darkstar VC Challenges European Norms by Backing Pure Defense Startups From Ukraine’s Frontlines

          Gerik

          Political

          Russia-Ukraine Conflict

          Summary:

          Estonian venture firm Darkstar is redefining defense tech investing in Europe by supporting startups focused solely on military applications emerging from Ukraine's war zones...

          Breaking the Taboo: A VC Fund That Embraces Pure Defense Innovation

          European venture capital has traditionally avoided funding defense technology unless the startups offer dual-use applications civilian and military. Estonian firm Darkstar is now breaking this convention by directly funding military-only technologies, especially those battle-tested in Ukraine. With Russia’s invasion entering its fourth year, the urgency to modernize European defense capabilities has shifted investor sentiment, and Darkstar is seizing this moment.
          Cofounded by Ragnar Sass, a seasoned tech entrepreneur and investor, Darkstar is not merely making capital commitments. It is embedding itself in Ukraine’s defense ecosystem, building relationships with combat brigades and leveraging that intelligence to help startups design, iterate, and scale products suited for NATO procurement and battlefield realities.

          From Hackathons to High-Tech Ammunition: Darkstar’s Evolution

          Darkstar has already raised €15 million (of a targeted €25 million) from European entrepreneurs, family offices, and the Estonian state-backed SmartCap. The fund targets pre-seed and seed-stage defense startups with typical check sizes between €500,000 and €1 million. Its first two investments include:
          FarSight Vision, which offers geospatial mapping and 3D navigation tools for drone pilots.
          Deftak, a firm focused on drone-deployed munitions.
          Both companies originated in Ukraine but have since developed operational setups in Estonia to align with European procurement standards. According to Sass, establishing a NATO-compliant presence is essential to win defense contracts, as Western governments require strict adherence to regulatory and operational norms.

          A Strategic Shift Sparked by War

          Sass, best known for founding Pipedrive and investing in unicorns like Veriff, initially had no interest in the defense sector. His mindset changed following personal involvement in Ukraine’s humanitarian aid and his investment in Krattworks, a drone startup that marked his first foray into military technology. What began as an emotional response evolved into strategic conviction: that Europe needs to rearm using combat-validated technologies.
          Darkstar was born from this realization, first operating as a community for defense hackathons and now transforming into a full-scale investment fund with a growing team across Estonia, Germany, and Ukraine.

          Bootcamps and Battlefield Validation: A New Investment Model

          Darkstar’s edge lies in its operational philosophy. It hosts on-the-ground bootcamps in Kyiv, where selected startups receive real-time feedback from Ukraine’s elite drone and defense units. This process serves as both validation and acceleration, compressing months of testing and iteration into a matter of days.
          The connection with military end users gives Darkstar early access to some of Ukraine’s most innovative teams many of whom have survived two years of war with limited resources but significant R&D output. Contrary to assumptions about mobilization blocking tech entrepreneurship, many Ukrainian defense startups are led by women or by founders granted exemptions due to the critical nature of their work.

          Not Just Ukrainian: Building a Pan-European Defense Portfolio

          Although Ukraine is the fund’s launchpad, Darkstar’s ambitions are continental. It plans to invest in startups from Latvia, Germany, the U.K., and across Central and Eastern Europe. Sass emphasizes the need for companies to relocate or expand beyond Ukraine for regulatory reasons and to scale effectively within NATO frameworks.
          The investment categories span autonomous systems, cyber defense, surveillance, electromagnetic warfare, and communications fields critical to the future of both national defense and hybrid conflict zones. While some companies could become acquisition targets for established defense primes, Sass believes others may evolve into independent, venture-scale enterprises.

          Challenging Dual-Use Orthodoxy Amid Rising Security Threats

          Most European public funds and even NATO’s Innovation Fund still require dual-use functionality, limiting how defense capital is deployed. Yet Estonia’s SmartCap and Lithuania’s Coinvest Capital have quietly removed this restriction. Darkstar’s approach is part of a broader Baltic-led effort to treat defense not as a fringe market but as a critical innovation sector worthy of full-stack venture support.
          Sass argues this is a necessary recalibration. "Elite units are more similar to startups than we can imagine," he says, highlighting how battlefield innovation in Ukraine is rapid, decentralized, and mission-driven. But unlike civilian markets, the stakes here are existential.

          War Is Driving a New VC Paradigm

          Darkstar’s emergence is a symbol of how Russia’s aggression has redefined Europe’s investment ethos. For Sass and his team, this is no longer just about returns it’s about resilience. Backing battlefield-born startups is not only morally compelling for Darkstar’s Estonian founders but strategically vital for a Europe grappling with its defense preparedness.
          In rejecting the constraints of dual-use orthodoxy and diving head-first into combat tech, Darkstar signals that the next wave of European defense innovation may not come from traditional primes, but from agile, gritty, war-proven teams building under fire.
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          Goldman Sachs Raises Tariff Baseline on US Copper Imports to 50%, Expects Pre-Tariff Shipment Surge

          Gerik

          Economic

          Commodity

          Tariff Forecast Revision Signals Escalation in U.S. Trade Policy

          Goldman Sachs has revised its baseline expectation for U.S. copper import tariffs from 25% to 50%, citing growing political momentum behind President Donald Trump's intensified trade campaign. The bank’s note on Wednesday underscores how the anticipation of steeper trade barriers is already shaping short-term market behavior, with a likely surge in import activity before the August 1 deadline.
          This shift in Goldman’s forecast reflects a reassessment of both political signals and policy trajectory. While the administration had initially floated a 25% copper tariff, Trump has since publicly supported doubling that figure, making the 50% scenario more probable than previously assumed. The causal logic behind this revision rests on policy developments rather than market fundamentals, though the two are now increasingly intertwined.

          Front-Loading Expected as Importers Rush to Beat Tariffs

          Goldman predicts a further acceleration in copper shipments into the U.S. as companies scramble to avoid higher costs. This “front-running” behavior has historical precedent—similar spikes in import volumes occurred during the 2018–2019 tariff rounds, as buyers moved quickly to stockpile goods ahead of implementation dates.
          The expectation of front-loaded imports is based on a simple economic incentive: locking in lower-cost supplies before a sudden 50% price jump. This behavior, however, could lead to temporary market distortions, including shipping bottlenecks, warehouse strain, and uneven price fluctuations in the copper market during July.

          Broader Implications for Copper Supply Chains and Inflation Risk

          A tariff of this magnitude on a strategic industrial metal like copper—used extensively in housing, electronics, automotive, and energy infrastructure—has downstream implications. Higher import costs could ripple through domestic supply chains, potentially raising prices for finished goods or squeezing margins for U.S. manufacturers who rely on imported raw materials.
          If businesses are unable to fully pass on these higher costs, the outcome may be lower investment, reduced output, or margin compression—each with broader economic consequences. Should costs be passed on, consumers may face price hikes in sectors such as electronics and green energy equipment, which are particularly copper-intensive.
          While Goldman Sachs did not alter its commodity price outlook in this short note, a prolonged 50% tariff regime could support upward pressure on global copper prices, especially if other nations respond with countermeasures or supply constraints.

          Trade Risk Intensifies as Copper Tariff Escalation Looms

          Goldman Sachs’ revised 50% tariff baseline marks a significant recalibration of expectations and signals heightened risk for global copper trade flows. The next several weeks are likely to see accelerated imports, strategic inventory adjustments, and increased pricing volatility as U.S. importers react to the elevated tariff threat.
          If the 50% duty is implemented as anticipated, its economic impact will extend beyond copper alone—potentially influencing inflation dynamics, industrial competitiveness, and the broader trade environment as tensions deepen.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Trump Delays Tariffs Again, But Economic Storm May Be Brewing

          Gerik

          Economic

          China–U.S. Trade War

          Tariff Delay Extends Uncertainty, Not Relief

          Originally set to begin on July 9, President Trump’s new round of sweeping tariffs has been delayed once more, now pushed to August 1. Though this extension offers additional time for negotiating trade deals, it prolongs uncertainty for global markets and businesses, especially in industries heavily reliant on complex supply chains. While some may view the delay as a diplomatic opening, the broader economic risks associated with high tariffs remain unresolved.
          The current postponement also reflects a tactical move by the administration to secure concessions from trading partners, rather than a reversal in policy. Trump’s tariff strategy, which he describes as “reciprocal,” targets dozens of countries and spans key sectors including copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. However, analysts emphasize that tariff uncertainty especially with frequent shifts in deadlines and terms can act as a brake on business investment and long-term economic planning.

          Tariffs Are Taxes And Consumers Will Eventually Pay

          At its core, a tariff is a tax on imported goods. While Trump’s earlier tariffs from 2018–2019 did not immediately spark inflation, economists caution that the delayed reaction could intensify toward the end of 2025. Roughly half of all U.S. imports are intermediate goods products used in manufacturing so when those costs rise, they cascade through the economy.
          Economist Doug Irwin of Dartmouth explains that many American-made products, such as aircraft and cars, rely heavily on globally sourced components. As tariffs inflate the cost of these inputs, manufacturers are forced to raise prices or sacrifice margins. A 2019 Federal Reserve study confirmed that previous tariffs resulted in a near-total pass-through of costs to U.S. consumers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that inflation is “the dog that didn’t bark” may not hold up by year’s end, economists argue.

          Economic Output Shrinks When Trade Barriers Rise

          Historical and empirical research suggests that high tariffs often reduce a country’s economic output. A 2020 study analyzing data from 151 countries between 1963 and 2014 found that tariffs consistently suppress GDP by undermining efficiency, raising production costs, and deterring specialization.
          Antonio Fatas of INSEAD illustrates this with a simple supply chain example: if a U.S. factory worker relies on imported microchips from Taiwan that become more expensive due to tariffs, the total value produced per hour of labor falls. Labor productivity suffers, and so does national output.
          The current uncertainty around trade policy is also discouraging capital investment. Surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business indicate a sharp drop in planned capital expenditures, with business owners citing unpredictability as a key reason. In essence, even the threat of tariffs is enough to stall economic momentum.

          Jobs at Risk Despite Political Rhetoric

          Tariffs are often sold politically as job-saving measures, especially in manufacturing. But empirical evidence tells a different story. Studies following the 2018 steel tariffs found that while steelmakers gained marginally, downstream industries which employ more people saw job losses due to higher input costs and reduced competitiveness.
          The Federal Reserve Board concluded that manufacturing employment suffered a net loss after 2018–2019 tariffs once retaliatory measures from other countries were factored in. As other nations, including China and the EU, respond to Trump’s renewed tariff threats, the risk of countermeasures remains high potentially shrinking U.S. export markets.

          Free Trade’s Benefits Still Outweigh the Costs

          Mainstream economists continue to argue that free trade, despite its drawbacks, has been a net positive for both advanced and developing economies. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, global manufacturing costs have fallen, contributing to low inflation and improved consumer access. Goods prices in the U.S. have risen modestly compared to services, largely due to inexpensive imports.
          However, globalization has also had social and economic downsides, especially in regions exposed to industrial competition. Economists compare this to the impact of automation, with both trends displacing specific types of labor. But the consensus remains that tariffs are a blunt, inefficient tool for addressing these imbalances. Instead, targeted subsidies or retraining programs are considered more effective.

          Global Supply Chains and Strategic Dependency

          The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting renewed interest in reshoring and industrial policy. But even in this context, economists like Fatas caution against tariffs as a reshoring tool. Subsidies and strategic industrial planning offer more precise methods of promoting domestic production without distorting prices or fueling inflation.
          Moreover, trade itself plays a broader role in maintaining geopolitical stability. J.P. Morgan’s David Kelly has emphasized that trade ties create mutual dependencies, reducing incentives for conflict. In this context, tariffs not only have economic costs but also strategic consequences.

          Calm Before a Storm or a Turning Point?

          Trump’s decision to delay his “monster tariffs” may have temporarily eased market fears, but the fundamental risks remain. If enacted on August 1, the new tariffs could erode consumer purchasing power, disrupt supply chains, and push up prices across sectors. The resulting drag on productivity and job growth may not be immediate but history suggests it will come.
          In the short term, the U.S. economy appears resilient, supported by strong consumer demand and favorable labor conditions. Yet the true test of Trump’s tariff policy may arrive in late 2025, when lagging effects on inflation, investment, and output become harder to ignore. For now, uncertainty remains the only certainty and the window for trade diplomacy is quickly narrowing.

          Source: CNN

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          EU Nears Deal with Trump That Could Lock in Higher Tariffs Than UK, FT Reports

          Gerik

          Economic

          EU Weighs Temporary Trade Truce Amid Pressure from U.S. Tariff Campaign

          According to a report from the Financial Times, European Union officials are preparing to finalize a provisional trade agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump that would lock in "reciprocal" tariffs of 10%. This would place the EU at a relative disadvantage compared to the United Kingdom, which has reportedly secured a lower tariff arrangement amid ongoing U.S. trade realignments.
          The framework agreement under discussion is intended as a temporary measure, allowing Brussels and Washington to avoid immediate escalation while continuing negotiations on more comprehensive terms. While Reuters has not independently verified the FT report, the news aligns with Trump’s broader strategy of leveraging tariff pressure to force faster bilateral deals.

          Disparity in Treatment Reflects Tactical U.S. Leverage

          If confirmed, the discrepancy in tariff levels between the UK and the EU would suggest a deliberate U.S. tactic to exploit post-Brexit fragmentation, rewarding those who make concessions early while applying higher pressure on blocs that resist. The 10% tariff, though lower than the 25–50% rates recently announced for other partners, still represents a significant trade cost for EU exporters, particularly in industrial and automotive sectors.
          The correlation between Trump’s tariff threats and negotiation outcomes highlights the transactional nature of current U.S. trade diplomacy. Rather than establishing uniform standards across allies, Washington appears to be setting differentiated terms based on perceived strategic leverage and willingness to negotiate.

          EU’s Strategic Calculus: Contain Risk, Buy Time

          For Brussels, agreeing to a temporary framework could reflect a strategic attempt to cap the immediate economic damage and avoid further escalation especially as EU member states prepare for broader elections and economic headwinds. While the 10% tariff is not favorable compared to the UK's reported arrangement, it could still be viewed as a temporary price to pay for preserving broader access to the U.S. market during a highly uncertain period.
          This provisional deal, if signed, would also give European businesses a degree of predictability amid a volatile global trade environment. However, locking in a higher tariff level, even temporarily, could risk setting a precedent that weakens the EU’s bargaining position in future rounds.

          EU Seeks Stability, But Unequal Terms Raise Long-Term Questions

          The reported EU-U.S. deal underscores how Trump’s assertive tariff-first strategy is reshaping global trade negotiations, pushing partners into asymmetric agreements under pressure. While the EU’s willingness to agree to a 10% tariff may help avoid a larger trade confrontation in the short term, the unequal treatment compared to the UK raises critical questions about fairness, cohesion, and leverage within the transatlantic trade framework.
          As talks continue, the effectiveness of this temporary truce will depend on whether Brussels can secure improved terms in subsequent negotiations or whether it finds itself locked into a less favorable long-term arrangement.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Asian Markets Mixed as Tariff Deadline Looms and Trade Tensions Persist

          Gerik

          Economic

          Stocks

          Asia’s Divergent Equity Trends Reflect Cautious Optimism and Rising Trade Risks

          Stock markets across Asia closed with mixed results on Wednesday, mirroring the volatile sentiment emerging from Wall Street. The regional divergence is driven largely by country-specific exposure to U.S. trade policy shifts, particularly as President Trump intensifies his push for more favorable trade terms ahead of a self-imposed August 1 tariff deadline.
          Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up by 0.2% to 39,764.02, and South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.5% to 3,132.02 both markets supported by investor hopes that ongoing trade negotiations with the United States may secure exemptions or sector-specific relief, especially for critical exports like cars and steel. These modest advances reflect a cautiously optimistic view that diplomatic engagement could buffer some of the tariff fallout.

          Sectoral Tensions and Limited Flexibility from Washington

          Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management noted that “sectoral carve-outs remain the thorniest terrain,” highlighting the particular sensitivity of industries such as automotive and steel manufacturing. However, he also warned that the U.S. is unlikely to yield significant ground in these areas, a view that tempers optimism surrounding ongoing talks with Tokyo and Seoul. The correlation between trade policy rigidity and market volatility remains evident, especially for export-driven economies heavily reliant on U.S. access.
          Chinese Markets Show Mixed Sentiment Amid Policy Strains
          In contrast, Chinese equity markets reflected ongoing concerns about deepening trade and economic headwinds. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 0.7% to 23,970.39, while the Shanghai Composite gained a modest 0.3% to 3,507.69. These diverging outcomes reflect a dual narrative: investor anxiety about long-term geopolitical risk, balanced against potential short-term policy support from Beijing to stabilize sentiment.
          Beijing continues to face deflationary pressure and weakening domestic demand, as highlighted in recent economic data. Mizuho Bank commented that the U.S. tariffs are part of a broader strategy to isolate China from key trade partners and global supply chains, a move that could have systemic implications for regional manufacturing and logistics ecosystems.

          Australia and India Weighed Down by External Pressures

          Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 8,559.30, while India’s BSE Sensex edged down 0.2% to 83,570.86. These declines reflect broader concerns about global trade disruption and the indirect effects of Washington’s tariffs on commodity and services-based economies. The sell-off suggests that while these markets may not be direct targets, they are increasingly vulnerable to second-round effects via supply chain realignment and investment outflows.
          The uncertainty in Asian markets mirrored Wall Street’s cautious tone. The S&P 500 declined by 0.1%, while the Dow Jones lost 0.4%. Although the Nasdaq managed a slight gain, overall momentum has slowed following the Trump administration’s latest wave of tariff announcements targeting over a dozen nations. Despite major U.S. indices trading near record highs, market breadth has narrowed and volatility has increased, reflecting investor hesitation in pricing long-term risk.

          Heightened Policy Risk Undermines Regional Confidence

          Asian markets remain trapped between hope and caution as the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline approaches. While diplomatic efforts from Japan and South Korea offer potential reprieve for select sectors, broader concerns about global trade fragmentation continue to weigh on sentiment. Markets are not reacting in panic, but they are increasingly pricing in the risk that policy unpredictability rather than economic fundamentals will drive capital flows and investment decisions in the near term.
          Unless clarity emerges soon on the scope and duration of Trump’s tariff strategy, regional markets may remain volatile, with investor positioning dictated more by geopolitical signaling than macroeconomic data.

          Source: AP

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          China’s Deepening Producer Deflation Signals Structural Demand Weakness Amid Cautious Policy Stance

          Gerik

          Economic

          Sharp Fall in Producer Prices Reflects Structural Deflationary Risks

          China’s producer price index (PPI) plunged 3.6% in June compared to the same period last year, the largest contraction since July 2023. This decline, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% drop, confirms the sustained deflationary momentum that has gripped China’s industrial sector since late 2022. The ongoing slide in factory-gate prices stems not only from cyclical softening but also from more entrenched structural imbalances, such as overcapacity and declining marginal profitability across key manufacturing sectors.
          The PPI’s steep fall underscores the consequences of persistent price wars among producers, especially in saturated consumer segments. These dynamics are less a short-term reaction to weak demand and more a systemic outcome of an economy struggling to transition from investment-led to consumption-driven growth. The government's recent critique of excessive price competition further highlights the belief that such strategies have failed to stimulate lasting consumer interest while eroding corporate margins.

          Consumer Prices Show Marginal Rebound, but Momentum Is Thin

          China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, returning to positive territory after four consecutive months of deflation. Although the increase exceeded market forecasts of no change, it reflects only a marginal shift rather than a sustained inflation trend. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.7% its strongest pace in 14 months suggesting that underlying consumer demand may be stabilizing slightly but remains soft.
          The uptick in headline inflation was partially driven by a trade-in subsidy scheme for household appliances, electronics, and electric vehicles. However, this temporary government stimulus is unlikely to generate long-term demand traction. Analysts caution that once these subsidies expire, inflationary momentum will likely weaken again, especially if industrial overcapacity continues to drive down prices across consumer goods sectors.
          The relationship between government-led demand support and CPI growth here is more correlational than causative. It shows that while subsidies can provide short-term price support, they are not sufficient to shift the underlying demand curve without broader macroeconomic tailwinds.

          Price Wars and the ‘Involution’ Trap in Domestic Competition

          The term “involution” (or neijuan) a popular phrase in Chinese economic discourse has become symbolic of the hypercompetitive behavior among domestic firms. These companies, particularly in the consumer durables and tech sectors, are slashing prices aggressively to clear inventories and maintain market share. However, this pricing strategy has not led to corresponding increases in demand. Instead, it has triggered a profitability crisis across the industrial landscape, with industrial profits declining 9.1% in May year-on-year the worst drop since October 2024.
          Chinese policymakers are now signaling a shift in regulatory focus, warning against unsustainable discounting practices and urging a transition toward quality-oriented production. A recent top-level economic meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to phase out outdated capacity and boost product standards, a move that indicates a policy preference for structural reform over short-term stimulus.

          Export Resilience Slows Stimulus Appetite

          Despite domestic softness, China’s export performance has shown relative strength in recent months. Overseas shipments rose 8.1% in April and 4.8% in May, driven largely by Southeast Asian markets, which helped offset weaker U.S.-bound exports affected by erratic tariff policies. This export resilience has partially reduced pressure on Beijing to implement large-scale domestic stimulus packages.
          According to Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, the continued growth in exports is one reason policymakers remain hesitant to roll out aggressive consumption-boosting measures. From a policy logic perspective, unless external demand falters significantly, Beijing is likely to stay the course with targeted interventions rather than sweeping fiscal or monetary expansion.

          Risk of Prolonged Deflation Without Structural Adjustment

          China’s latest inflation data points to a dual-track economy one where industrial prices continue to contract deeply, while consumer prices struggle to regain meaningful momentum. The slight recovery in CPI and core inflation offers limited relief but does not signal a turning point. The producer deflation, driven by weak domestic demand, price wars, and overcapacity, appears more entrenched, and unless addressed through structural reform and more effective demand-side policies, risks evolving into a broader deflationary spiral.
          Policymakers’ current reluctance to deploy broad stimulus buoyed by short-term export resilience may buy time but does little to correct internal imbalances. Until stronger domestic demand is secured through income growth and consumption reform, deflationary pressures are likely to persist, weighing on profitability, investment, and confidence in the world's second-largest economy.

          Source: CNBC

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Australia Presses US for Clarity Amid Trump’s Threat of 200% Drug Tariffs

          Gerik

          Economic

          Australia’s Pharmaceutical Industry on Alert Amid US Trade Threat

          The Australian government has moved swiftly to request more information following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals. Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized on Wednesday that Australia is particularly vulnerable to such measures due to its pharmaceutical industry’s heavy reliance on the U.S. market. In 2024, pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. totaled A$2.1 billion, accounting for 38% of Australia’s total pharma exports.
          This sector-specific exposure stands in sharp contrast to Australia’s copper trade with the U.S., which makes up less than 1% of its overall copper exports. Trump’s simultaneous plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports may garner symbolic attention, but it is the pharmaceutical tariff threat that has provoked immediate concern in Canberra.

          PBS at the Center of a Brewing Trade Dispute

          The crux of the tension lies in Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), a public program that caps prices on nearly 1,000 essential medicines. While hailed domestically as a pillar of equitable healthcare, the PBS has increasingly come under scrutiny from U.S. trade lobbyists who argue it disadvantages American pharmaceutical exporters. According to recent reporting by The Guardian, several powerful Washington lobbying groups are calling on the White House to penalize Australia for what they see as regulatory barriers and domestic manufacturing incentives that restrict foreign competition.
          The trade tension appears to stem not only from economic calculations but also from conflicting policy philosophies: the U.S. model prioritizes open market pricing, while Australia’s approach centers on healthcare affordability through price regulation. The tariff threat thus reflects not just retaliation for market access disputes but also a broader ideological clash over pharmaceutical governance.

          Trump’s Tactical Delay Offers Limited Assurance

          President Trump indicated that pharmaceutical companies may be given up to one year to shift production to the U.S. before the full 200% tariff is enforced. While this temporary reprieve might allow some firms to adjust, it does little to reduce the broader uncertainty for exporters like Australia. The correlation between political rhetoric and actual policy implementation remains unclear, leaving trade partners to navigate a fluid and potentially volatile landscape.
          Treasurer Chalmers has made it clear that Australia will not compromise on its PBS framework, signaling a firm political stance. "Our Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme is not something we’re willing to trade away or do deals on,” he said, underscoring Canberra’s unwillingness to accept U.S. pressure on healthcare policy.

          Market and Policy Implications of a Prolonged Dispute

          If enacted, the proposed tariffs could significantly disrupt pharmaceutical trade between the two countries. Australian exporters may face diminished competitiveness in the U.S. market, potentially leading to revenue losses and reduced scale in a sector already under cost pressure. Moreover, the uncertainty could discourage long-term investment in cross-border pharmaceutical supply chains.
          Beyond bilateral trade, the episode raises concerns about the politicization of healthcare trade and the limits of trade policy as a tool for resolving regulatory disagreements. The causal relationship between perceived unfair pricing systems and punitive tariffs introduces a precedent that could reverberate in future trade negotiations with other nations.

          Healthcare Policy Meets Trade Power Politics

          Australia’s rapid response to Trump’s drug tariff threat underscores the high stakes involved when national healthcare policy intersects with geopolitical trade strategy. As Canberra insists on protecting the PBS, the confrontation may evolve into a broader test of how far governments are willing to go to defend domestic policy values in the face of economic retaliation.
          While the full implications of the 200% tariff remain uncertain, one thing is clear: Australia is not treating the threat as symbolic. Its economic and political leaders are preparing for the possibility of a sustained standoff, one that pits healthcare sovereignty against the expanding reach of tariff diplomacy.

          Source: Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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