Crypto Fear And Greed Index Shows Slight Sentiment Shift

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Index climbs from 23 (Extreme Fear) to 28 (Fear); Reflects a modest recovery in investor sentiment; Still signals caution as fear dominates.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a popular tool to measure market sentiment, has risen from 23 to 28 within a day. While both numbers fall under the "Fear" category, the jump from "Extreme Fear" to "Fear" reflects a modest but notable shift in how investors are currently feeling about the crypto market.

This change suggests that some confidence may be returning after a period of high uncertainty and selling pressure. However, with the index still below 30, market participants remain cautious, and the overall mood is far from bullish.

What the Numbers Really Mean

The Fear and Greed Index analyzes various factors—such as volatility, trading volume, social media trends, and surveys—to quantify the emotional state of the market. A score closer to 0 represents extreme fear, while 100 signals extreme greed.

Today's move to 28 still suggests investors are wary, but they're not in panic mode like they were yesterday. This small shift could indicate stabilization after a rough patch, or it might be a short-lived reaction to a minor positive development—such as slight price recoveries or encouraging news.

Why Sentiment Matters for Traders

Understanding market sentiment is essential for crypto traders and investors. When fear dominates, opportunities may arise for long-term believers to enter at lower prices. On the other hand, excessive greed can signal that the market is overheated and due for a correction.

Even a small rise in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index can help gauge market direction. As of now, the index is showing early signs of a possible trend reversal, but fear still lingers. Investors should stay informed and watch for further sentiment shifts that might affect price movements.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Bounces But Skepticism Persists

Bitcoin staged a modest recovery on Wednesday, briefly touching $93,965 its highest level since November 17 before settling around $93,300. This rebound comes after a prolonged market correction that began in October, when the flagship cryptocurrency tumbled from its record high above $126,000. The retracement has wiped out over $1 trillion in digital asset market capitalization, prompting ongoing caution from both institutional and retail traders.

Despite this short-term upward move, crypto sentiment remains unstable. According to Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, market participants are showing hesitation. “We don’t see a ton of buyers on the top side,” he observed, highlighting that price resistance is likely to remain unless stronger momentum emerges.

Fundamentals and Headlines Drive Volatile Sentiment

This week’s trading has been marked by sharp fluctuations, reflecting the market's heightened sensitivity to news. On Monday, token prices dropped after Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le suggested the company may sell Bitcoin holdings to meet debt obligations. Though the firm later announced a $1.4 billion reserve to strengthen its liquidity position, the damage to sentiment was done.

Bitcoin's rebound on Tuesday was partially attributed to regulatory signals and institutional moves. U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins revealed plans to introduce an “innovation exemption” for digital asset firms, while Vanguard Group's decision to allow crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds to be traded on its platform added to bullish sentiment.

This policy support helped trigger short liquidations. According to Coinglass data, roughly $400 million in bearish positions were wiped out over the last 24 hours, amplifying Bitcoin’s rally through forced buybacks.

ETF Inflows Underwhelm Amid Fragile Confidence

A crucial indicator of sustained investor appetite inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs remains tepid. Only $59 million entered the 12 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, a figure Bloomberg's Sean McNulty described as “feeble.” These inflows are far below levels seen during previous bullish cycles and suggest that institutional investors are still in a wait-and-see mode.

This lukewarm institutional response is consistent with broader market sentiment. Traders are still digesting recent volatility and are wary of jumping in too aggressively before the market establishes a more durable upward trajectory.

Technical Rebound or Trend Reversal?

QCP Group CEO Melvin Deng characterized the rally as a “relief rally” rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend. While Deng acknowledged the potential for Bitcoin to “reclaim some momentum,” he cautioned that underlying conditions remain weak. For under-exposed investors, however, he suggested that this may present an attractive re-entry opportunity provided they manage risk carefully.

The distinction here is crucial: the recent gains reflect short-term positioning adjustments, not a definitive shift in long-term trend. Without sustained buying from institutions or a macroeconomic tailwind, Bitcoin’s recovery could prove

Rebound Offers Hope, But Fragility Underscores Volatility

Bitcoin’s rise to a two-week high has provided temporary relief to the battered crypto market, but fundamental investor skepticism lingers. With ETF inflows muted, leveraged positions being liquidated, and sentiment still shaky after a record-breaking selloff, the market lacks the firm foundation for a full-fledged rally.

As regulatory developments and institutional engagement evolve, the coming weeks will reveal whether this bounce is a stepping stone toward recovery or merely a pause in an ongoing correction.

Source: Bloomberg

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Business activity in the eurozone expanded at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years in November as a robust service sector more than offset manufacturing weakness, a survey showed on Wednesday.

HCOB's Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October, marking its sixth consecutive monthly increase.

PMI readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity, while those below that level point to a contraction.

"The service sector in the eurozone is showing clear signs of recovery," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

"The strong performance in the service sector was even enough to more than offset the weakness in the manufacturing sector, meaning that economic output in the eurozone grew slightly faster in November than in the previous month," de la Rubia added.

The services PMI climbed to 53.6 last month from 53.0 in October, reaching its highest level since May 2023 as new business volumes grew at the strongest pace in 18 months.

Most countries surveyed recorded expansions, with Ireland leading the way as its growth rate hit a three-and-a-half-year high. Spain maintained robust growth despite slowing from October, while Italy posted its strongest expansion since April 2023.

In France, private business activity expanded for the first time in 15 months, while activity moderated in Germany from October's 29-month peak.

Manufacturing showed signs of struggling, however, with factory production growth slowing to a nine-month low and new orders declining marginally.

Employment across the eurozone continued to increase in November, though the pace of job creation slowed to only a fractional rate. The services sector maintained hiring momentum, while manufacturing firms reduced staff at the sharpest rate since April.

Business confidence improved slightly but remained below its long-run average, suggesting companies remain cautious about future conditions.

On the inflation front, input costs rose at the fastest pace in eight months, driven by renewed increases in manufacturers' purchasing costs and accelerating service sector expenses.

However, the prices firms charged customers rose at a softer pace, with output price inflation easing to a six-month low.

"The inflation rate in the service sector, which the European Central Bank is monitoring with particular attention, has weakened significantly again in terms of sales prices," de la Rubia said.

"All in all, the ECB is likely to feel supported in its clearly communicated line of leaving interest rates unchanged at the upcoming central bank meeting."

Source: Theedgemarkets

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Winkelmann

Forex

Technical Analysis

Positive US fundamental data may trigger a rally in USDJPY towards 157.50.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

· Japan's services PMI in Japan: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.2

· US services PMI: previously at 54.8, currently at 55.0

· ADP US nonfarm employment change: previously at 42 thousand, currently at 7 thousand

· USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2025: 154.85 and 157.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 3 December 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading near 155.80.

Japan's services PMI covers multiple industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technologies, hospitality, and food services.

The USDJPY forecast for today appears moderately optimistic for the Japanese yen, with the PMI up to 53.2 from 53.1 previously. At the moment, the PMI is above the 50.0 threshold, which may add support to the yen.

The US services PMI is also expected to rise to 55.0 from the previous 54.8. In this case, the increase in momentum may be slightly stronger, but it is still only a forecast. The actual figure may differ significantly, adding either support or pressure to the USD.

According to the forecast for 3 December 2025, ADP nonfarm employment change in the US may fall to 7 thousand, but this is only a projection. Last month, the number of employed grew more strongly than expected. The USDJPY forecast for today takes into account that a stronger-than-expected reading could support the US dollar and push the USDJPY rate higher towards 157.50.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band and is currently trading around 155.80. At this stage, it may continue an upward wave following the pattern's signal, with a potential upside target at 157.50.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price corrects towards 154.85 before rising.

Summary

Stronger US economic indicators may support the USD. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests a rise towards 157.50 after a correction.

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This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Source: RoboForex

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

France's dominant services sector expanded slightly more than first estimated in November, hitting a 15-month high as new business gained momentum in the euro zone's second-biggest economy, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The HCOB France final purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector, compiled by S&P Global, stood at 51.4 - up from 48.0 in October - marking the first time the figure has topped the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction since August 2024.

November's flash services PMI was at 50.8.

The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, also entered positive territory, climbing to 50.4 in November from 47.7 in October and versus a flash estimate of 49.9.

However, manufacturing output continued to decline, widening the gap between the two sectors.

"Finally, some positive news. For the first time in over a year, output in France's private sector has increased. However, manufacturing remains a drag on overall performance, posting its steepest fall in nine months," said Jonas Feldhusen, junior economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

While the services sector's rebound is encouraging, Feldhusen cautioned that it remains to be seen whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or a temporary uptick.

Business expectations improved but remained cautious, with firms hopeful for a more stable policy environment to boost household consumption and business investment.

And, despite this positive development, the survey highlighted ongoing challenges.

Employment in the services sector fell slightly, reversing a robust hiring trend from the previous three months. Competitive pressures also limited companies' ability to raise prices, with output prices remaining largely unchanged despite rising input costs.

Source: Investing

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Daniel Carter

Economic

S&P Global's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.4 in November from 47.7 the previous month -- surpassing the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction for the first time since Paris hosted the Olympics in the summer of 2024. A preliminary reading had put that gauge at 49.9.

"The improvement in services is encouraging, yet it remains to be seen whether this is just a one-off uptick or the start of a sustained recovery," Jonas Feldhusen, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said in a statement. "However, manufacturing remains a drag on overall performance, posting its steepest fall in nine months and widening the gap between the two sectors."

France's economy is showing signs of weathering a political storm that's brought repeated government collapse over the last year and doubts about how any administration can rein in a runaway budget deficit.

Despite the private sector's struggles, gross domestic product rose 0.5% in the third quarter, beating economist expectations and coming in more than double the pace notched by the 20-nation euro area. Trade and investment were key drivers, despite signs of rising uncertainty among businesses leaders.

"Our economy is resisting rather well, or at least better than we might have feared," Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week.

Still, the central bank estimates political volatility is costing the country 0.2 percentage point of growth. Consumer spending rose only slightly in the third quarter after a contraction in the previous period, while surveys show households' inclination to save is at record highs.

PMIs are closely watched by markets as they arrive early in the month and are good at revealing trends and turning points in an economy. A measure of breadth of changes in output rather than depth, business surveys can sometimes be difficult to map directly to quarterly GDP.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Quota Allocation Revives Iranian Oil Flow

Independent oil refiners in China commonly referred to as “teapots” have accelerated their intake of Iranian crude in early December following a fresh round of import quotas issued by Beijing. The refiners, concentrated in Shandong province, began tapping into crude stocks stored in bonded tanks and aboard anchored ships, much of which was purchased in advance of the quota expansion.

These refiners operate under a strict quota regime that limits how much oil they can import. Having exhausted previous allocations earlier in the fourth quarter, many teapots had temporarily curtailed purchases, particularly of sanctioned crudes from Iran and Russia. The new quota release, reportedly ranging between seven to eight million tons for about 20 refiners, has revitalized activity at key ports such as Rizhao.

Discounted Iranian Crude Gains Traction

Iranian oil is regaining traction due to its steep price discounts. Cargoes of Iran Light crude were reportedly offered at $8–$9 per barrel below ICE Brent benchmarks this week a sharp drop from the $4 discounts seen in August. This aggressive pricing reflects both a need for Tehran to maintain market share under sanctions and reduced competition from Russian barrels as Western restrictions tighten.

The wide discount is a direct causal factor enabling China’s teapots to buy Iranian oil despite weak processing margins. These refiners have limited access to more expensive global supply, and with domestic demand remaining soft, only deeply discounted imports offer viable economic returns.

Storage Overflow at Sea Raises Global Risk Signals

Recent data from Kpler reveals that Iranian crude held in floating storage surged past 54 million barrels the highest since mid-2023. Much of this oil awaits Chinese buyers, with China now acting as Iran’s primary outlet amid restricted global access.

Two supertankers that had been idling off China including the Panama-flagged Ill Gap carrying around 2 million barrels discharged at separate Chinese ports this week, illustrating how quotas directly affect the release of offshore inventories.

Vortexa analyst Emma Li noted that demand from teapots may still remain subdued through year-end, constrained by weak refining margins. This mismatch means that while import quotas now exist, much of the sanctioned oil may continue accumulating at sea unless downstream economics improve.

Structural Policy Gaps Create Volatility

China’s approach to managing import quotas reflects a structural vulnerability in its energy procurement system. Although refiners now receive full-year quotas upfront to improve planning, stricter tax regimes on alternate feedstocks like fuel oil caused many to burn through allocations early in the year. Consequently, refiners entered Q4 with limited capacity to import, creating periodic bottlenecks and disrupting market flows.

This inconsistency between quota timing and market dynamics creates irregular surges in oil procurement a boom-bust pattern that influences global oil prices and tanker availability. While the newly issued quotas relieve short-term pressure, the underlying volatility in China’s quota management remains a source of market friction.

Geopolitical Implications and Strategic Outlook

China’s growing reliance on discounted Iranian crude sanctioned and avoided by most Western buyers underscores its willingness to sidestep geopolitical pressures to secure cost-effective energy. As new U.S. sanctions target Russian oil majors, Iranian barrels become more attractive to China’s private refiners, further deepening Beijing’s energy ties with geopolitically isolated suppliers.

This strategy enhances China’s energy security but risks reputational exposure and entanglement in sanction regimes, especially if future restrictions widen to include intermediaries or shipping partners.

In the longer term, China’s appetite for Iranian oil, facilitated by quota flexibility and opportunistic pricing, is likely to remain robust especially as global energy markets face tighter supplies and elevated prices.

The recent surge in Iranian crude deliveries to China illustrates how supply chain bottlenecks, quota policy, and geopolitical opportunism intersect in global energy markets. By taking advantage of quota adjustments and favorable pricing, Chinese teapots are reshaping sanctioned oil flows sustaining Tehran’s export revenues and reinforcing Beijing’s influence in the shadow energy economy. As the year closes, the interaction between regulatory control, market fundamentals, and foreign policy will continue to define the trajectory of China’s oil strategy.