CNBC Daily Open: The U.S. economy does not look down and out

Economic

Summary:

Strong U.S. retail sales and earnings pushed S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, suggesting resilience despite looming Trump tariffs. Japan inflation cooled, and U.S. introduces a $250 visa fee.

Despite the noise around tariffs and inflation fears, the U.S. economy seems to be holding its ground — for now. June retail sales came in stronger than expected, and weekly jobless claims dropped below forecasts.

Add to that a solid start to earnings season, and you’ve got a recipe for record highs: both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh peaks.

So, is the economy truly resilient in the face of the Trump administration’s shifting trade winds? Or are we simply in the eye of the storm, with August 1 — the Trump tariff deadline — looming on the horizon?

Remember, economic data is always a step behind. The real impact of tariffs may not show up for months, especially if businesses and consumers are stockpiling ahead of time and foreign exporters are cutting their prices.

Even when the new tariffs hit, the effects might be muted at first as inventories clear.Still, for now, investors can take comfort in the fact that markets are being lifted by fundamentals — not just fear or speculation.

And yes, to borrow a line from Starship: the U.S. economy is still built on rock-solid data… not on rock and roll.

What you need to know today

Arbitrage versus market manipulation. The line between arbitrage and market manipulation has long been one of the grayest areas in financial markets — and India’s recent action against high-frequency trading giant Jane Street has brought that murky boundary into sharp focus. Experts tell us the difference between the two.

S&P and Nasdaq storm to new records. U.S. stocks climbed Thursday due to solid earnings and economic data, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% for a record close of 6,297.36 — its ninth this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.75% for its tenth record close of 2025, ending at 20,885.65. In Asia, Australian equities notched a record high as other markets traded mixed.

Trump AG seeks release of Epstein’s jury transcripts. President Donald Trump said Thursday night that he had asked Attorney General Pam Bondi to seek the unsealing of grand jury testimony related to the criminal prosecution of the notorious pedophile.

Japan inflation eases. Core inflation cooled to 3.3% in June, coming down from a 29-month high of 3.7% as rice inflation showed signs of easing. The increase in rice prices eased slightly, rising 100.2% year over year, compared with the 101.7% jump in May.

[PRO] The U.S. consumer pushes back on recession fears. U.S. consumers appear to prove economic pessimists wrong this summer as they flex their spending muscle, according to June’s retail sales report. But some alternative data suggests that the consumer is hanging in there.

And finally...

Travelers to the US must pay a new $250 ‘visa integrity fee’ Visitors to the United States will need to pay a “visa integrity fee,” according to a provision of the Trump administration’s recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The fee applies to all visitors who need non-immigrant visas to enter, and cannot be waived.

However, travelers may also be able to get the fees reimbursed, according to the provision.

Source: cnbc

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

The House has passed three bills intended to boost the legitimacy of the cryptocurrency industry with new regulations as President Donald Trump has pushed to make the U.S. the “ crypto capital of the world.”

One of the three bills, legislation to regulate a type of cryptocurrency called stablecoins, had already passed the Senate with broad bipartisan support and will now head to Trump’s desk. The other two bills — a broader measure to create a new market structure for cryptocurrency and a bill to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a new digital currency — will go to the Senate.

The stablecoin bill, passed on a 308-122 vote, sets initial guardrails and consumer protections for the cryptocurrency, which is tied to a stable asset, often the U.S. dollar, to reduce price volatility. It passed the Senate with bipartisan support in June.

“Around the world, payment systems are undergoing a revolution,” said House Financial Services Chair French Hill of Arkansas as lawmakers debated the stablecoin legislation Thursday morning. Hill said the bill will “ensure American competitiveness and strong guardrails for our consumers.”

After Trump declared it “crypto week,” the bills were stalled for more than a day amid disagreements among House Republicans about how to combine the legislation. In the end, GOP leaders put the three bills for a separate votes, leaving the fate of the other two bills unclear in the Senate. The internal dissent could foreshadow challenges ahead for the more sweeping crypto legislation that Trump has demanded and the industry has poured millions into advancing.

The stablecoin measure is seen by lawmakers and the industry as a step toward adding legitimacy and consumer trust to a rapidly growing sector. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in June that the legislation could help that currency “grow into a $3.7 trillion market by the end of the decade.”

The bill outlines requirements for stablecoin issuers, including compliance with U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws, and mandates that issuers hold reserves backing the cryptocurrency. Without such a framework, Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee in a statement warned, “consumers face risks like unstable reserves or unclear operations from stablecoin issuers.”

After the votes, House Republicans strongly urged the Senate to take up the second bill, which would create a new market structure for cryptocurrency.

Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., said the 294-134 vote on that legislation shows broad bipartisan support and a “massive energy” on the issue. But it is so far unclear whether the Senate would consider the House bill or try to write its own.

That legislation aims to provide clarity for how digital assets are regulated. The bill defines what forms of cryptocurrency should be treated as commodities regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and which are securities policed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In general, tokens associated with “mature” blockchains, like bitcoin, will be considered commodities.

The third bill, passed on a narrower 219-210 margin, prohibits the U.S. from offering what’s known as a “central bank digital currency,” which is like a government-issued form of digital cash.

The crypto industry has long complained that unclear laws have made it difficult to operate in the U.S. and that the Biden administration tried to regulate it through enforcement actions rather than transparent rulemaking. Getting this bill passed has been a top priority for the industry, which has quickly become a major power player in Washington thanks to heavy campaign donations and lobbying.

Advocates said the passage of the bills marks a key moment in cryptocurrency’s winding path toward mainstream adoption.

Patrick McHenry, the former chair of the House Financial Services Committee and now vice chair of the crypto firm Ondo Finance, said the legislation will have a “massive generational impact,” similar to the securities laws Congress passed in the 1930s that helped make Wall Street the center of the financial world. “These bills will make the United States the center of the world for digital assets,” he said.

While the bill has significant bipartisan support, it has also faced pushback from Democrats who say the legislation should address Trump’s personal financial interests in the crypto space.

“No one should be surprised that these same Republicans’ next order of business is to validate, legitimize, and endorse the Trump family’s corruption and efforts to sell the White House to the highest bidder,” said California Rep. Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the Financial Services panel.

A provision in the stablecoin bill bans members of Congress and their families from profiting off stablecoins. But that prohibition does not extend to the president and his family, even as Trump builds a crypto empire from the White House.

In May, the Republican president hosted a private dinner at his golf club in Virginia with top investors in a Trump-branded meme coin. His family holds a significant stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto project that launched its own stablecoin, USD1.

Trump reported earning $57.35 million from token sales at World Liberty Financial in 2024, according to a public financial disclosure released in June. A meme coin linked to him has generated an estimated $320 million in fees, though the earnings are split among multiple investors.

Some Democrats also criticized the bill for creating what they see as an overly weak regulatory framework that could pose long-term financial risks. They’ve also raised concerns that the legislation opens the door for major corporations to issue their own private cryptocurrencies.

“If this bill passes, it will allow Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg to issue their own money. The bill still permits Big Tech companies and other conglomerates to issue their own private currencies,” said Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

The potential for near-term U.S. fiscal support may help cushion markets against escalating trade tensions, according to analysts at Bank of America.

While BofA’s economists view the recently passed U.S. budget bill as having a “neutral fiscal impulse” for fiscal year 2025, they noted it could generate a temporary $100 billion cash-flow boost for U.S. corporates through bonus depreciation.

“This matters, as it would help to soften the growing profit pressures for corporates resulting from the sharp increase in tariff payments,” said BofA.

The measure may also reduce the risk of weaker economic activity from companies cutting spending to protect margins.

Despite this support, BofA warned that “U.S. / global growth risks [are] skewed to the downside,” pointing to a range of headwinds that could slow domestic demand.

These are said to include “the risk of a further rise in the effective tariff rate, the impact of trade uncertainty on corporate spending, weakening immigration dynamics and the recent negative turn in the U.S. fiscal impulse.”

If U.S. growth decelerates in line with forecasts, global momentum could falter, particularly with “weaker China and still-weak Euro area growth ahead,” BofA said.

In equities, BofA remains cautious, forecasting “10% downside for the Stoxx 600 over the coming months” and further losses for European cyclicals versus defensives.

The bank continues to prefer defensive sectors such as pharma and food and beverages, and sees cyclical downside for financials and capital goods, while calling luxury, mining and semiconductors “attractive cyclical hedges.”

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

Asian Market Wrap

In Asia, stocks rose 0.4%, with TSMC reaching a new high on optimism about AI spending.

MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) rose 0.7%, reaching its highest level since late 2021, with a weekly gain of 1.5%.

In contrast, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2%, and the yen weakened 0.1% to 148.77 per dollar, down 0.7% for the week. This came after polls suggested Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition might lose its majority in Sunday's election.

US and European stock futures rose, suggesting the global stock rally could continue as strong economic data eased concerns about the US economy.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% after both hit record highs on Thursday, while European futures climbed 0.4%.

The Dollar recovered earlier losses and stayed flat after Fed official Waller suggested cutting interest rates this month to support a weak labor market. Treasury yields rose across the board. Cryptocurrencies also gained after Congress passed the first federal law on stablecoins.

A White House move on US chip restrictions, impacting Nvidia and AMD, has fueled speculation about a major tech deal between the US and China.

Meanwhile, analysts expect the ECB to delay its final rate cut until December, without signaling the end of easing.

German PPI Falls 1.3% YoY, the Most in 9 Months

Producer prices in Germany dropped 1.3% in June 2025 compared to last year, following a 1.2% decline in May, as expected. This marks the fourth month in a row of falling prices and the biggest drop since September 2024, mainly due to a 6.4% fall in energy costs.

In the energy sector, electricity prices fell 8.8%, mineral oil products 7.7%, natural gas 6.9%, heating oil 6.4%, and motor fuel 4.2%. Prices for intermediate goods also fell by 0.4%.

On the other hand, prices rose for non-durable consumer goods (3.6%), durable consumer goods (1.7%), and capital goods (1.7%). Excluding energy, producer prices increased by 1.3%, the same as in May.

Month-on-month, producer prices rose 0.1% in June, slightly beating expectations of no change, and rebounded from a 0.2% drop in May. This was the first monthly increase in seven months.

European Open

European stocks rose on Friday, heading for small weekly gains, as investors focused on corporate earnings to assess the impact of US tariffs on businesses.

The STOXX 600 index climbed 0.3% to 548.84 points, set for its second weekly gain. Other major indexes, including Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40, and Britain's FTSE 100, also saw modest increases.

Swedish defense company Saab jumped 12.7%, leading the STOXX 600, after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raising its sales outlook.

Danish wind turbine maker Vestas gained 8.8% after J.P. Morgan upgraded its rating to "overweight" from "neutral."

On the downside, GSK dropped over 6% after a U.S. FDA panel advised against approving its blood cancer drug Blenrep.

Swedish appliance maker Electrolux fell 14.6% following weak second-quarter results in Europe. Meanwhile, India's Reliance Industries announced its retail unit had acquired Kelvinator from Electrolux.

On the FX front, the dollar index, which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, rose to 98.57 by 0534 GMT. It’s set for a 0.72% weekly gain, adding to last week’s 0.91% increase.

On Thursday, the index hit 98.951, its highest since June 23, after US data showed stronger-than-expected retail sales in June and a drop in unemployment claims to a three-month low.

The euro rose 0.16% to 1.1617, recovering from Thursday’s three-week low of 1.1556, but is still down 0.65% for the week.

The British pound stayed flat at 1.3418, heading for a 0.53% weekly loss.

Bitcoin increased 0.82% on the day, trading around 120,460.

Currency Power Balance

Gold prices have risen after the European open, peaking around the $3350/oz handle. As things stand, Gold remains choppy as markets weigh up what trade deals may entail. A catalyst at this stage is sorely needed.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, there is some medium and high impact data from the US later in the day.

Earnings season continues and we will get further insight into University of Michigan inflation expectations which have risen considerably in 2025. With trade deals upon us and the recent inflation print now out, will we see an improvement in inflation expectations.

We will also hear from Fed policymaker Waller today ahead of the Feds blackout period which starts tomorrow.

Chart of the Day - DAX Index

From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has remained cautious and rangebound since Mondays retest of the key 24000 handle.

The index has finally moved higher over the last two days and is now eyeing a retest of all-time highs.

If earnings releases continue in a similar vein there is every reason to believe that fresh all-time highs will materialize.

Immediate resistance rests at 24654 before the 24750 and 25000 handles come into focus.

Support may be located at 24325 before the confluence level at 24000 comes back into play

DAX Daily Chart, July 18. 2025

Client Sentiment Data - DAX Index

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on the DAX Index with 86% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means the DAX Index could rise in the near-term.

Source: marketpulse

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Stocks

London stocks had pared gains by midday on Friday, with GSK under the cosh.

The FTSE 100 was flat at 8,971.33, having breached the 9,000 again earlier in the day,

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, said: "The FTSE 100 is the ultimate tease, once again flirting above the 9,000 level before taking a step back."

In equity markets, BP gushed higher as it agreed to sell its US onshore wind business, BP Wind Energy, to LS Power, a development, investment and operating company focused on the North American power and energy infrastructure sector.

No financial details were disclosed, but BP said that once the deal completes, BP Wind Energy will be owned and operated as part of LS Power portfolio company Clearlight Energy, increasing its operating fleet to around 4.3GW.

Ocado surged for the second day in a row after saying on Thursday that its full-year outlook remains on track as it swung to a big profit in the first half, in which both the tech and logistics divisions delivered double-digit top-line increases.

Industrial parts maker Senior shot higher as it announced the sale of its aerostructures business to Sullivan Street Partners, a UK-based private equity investor, for a total enterprise value of up to £200m. Proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce net debt and fund a £40m share buyback.

Luxury fashion house Burberry jumped as it said comparable sales fell by 1% in the three months to 28 June, beating expectations for a 3% decline.

Consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser pared earlier gains as it said it was selling off a controlling share in its Essential Home division to private equity firm Advent International in a deal that values the portfolio at $4.8bn.

Reckitt will retain a 30% equity stake in the business and said it plans to return $2.2bn to shareholders via a special dividend along with a share consolidation upon completion.

On the downside, GSK tumbled after the US Food and Drug Administration recommended against approving its blood cancer drug Blenrep.

Coatsworth said: "A troubling £3.8 billion has been wiped off the value of GSK after the US drug regulator cast doubt over its blood cancer drug, Blenrep, being approved for use.

"The FDA has voted against the proposed dosage from a benefit/risk perspective. It means the likelihood of Blenrep’s approval next week is looking extremely slim.

"There is always a high risk with drug developments and pharmaceutical companies are no strangers to setbacks. However, Blenrep was particularly important to GSK, with analysts forecasting peak annual sales in the region of £2.9 billion and the drug had one of the highest probabilities of approval in its pipeline.

"This situation, along with the prospect of new tariffs on drugs imported into the US, means GSK is suddenly on the sick bed. GSK has lost nearly a tenth of its market value in the past eight days, which is worrying for a company of its stature."

Elsewhere, Barclays was also weaker after a downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ at Citi, while Softcat slumped as JPMorgan placed the shares on ‘negative catalyst watch’ ahead of results.

Source: Sharecast

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

The dollar index keeps overall firm tone and heading for the second straight weekly gain, with some important technical barriers being cracked this week.

However, situation on daily chart indicates that bulls might be running out of steam, after pivotal Fibo barrier at 98.20 (38.2% of 101.80/95.97) has been broken, but fresh upside attempts were repeatedly capped by falling 55DMA (98.56).

Daily technical studies are mixed as positive momentum is strong and daily Tenkan / Kijun-sen formed a bull cross, but the action is weighed by falling daily cloud.

Our focus will be on today’s closing, with weekly close above 98.20 Fibo level to confirm positive signal and keep bulls in play for renewed attempt through 55DMA and attack at next key obstacles at 98.84/88 (50% retracement / daily Ichimoku cloud bases).

Conversely, closing below 98.20 would generate initial bearish signal (bull-trap) and keep the downside vulnerable.

Res: 98.28; 98.56; 98.88; 99.35.Sup: 98.03; 97.66; 97.28; 96.81.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Economic

Political

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that their countries can reach a "good agreement" on tariffs, Ishiba said on Friday after meeting Bessent at his office in Tokyo.

Ishiba added that while no specific terms were discussed, such as the 25% tariff US President Donald Trump has said he will impose on Japan from August, he asked Bessent to continue "active talks" with his top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa.

Akazawa, who also joined the meeting, told reporters that both countries agreed to carry on a "constructive dialogue". Bessent left Ishiba's office without speaking to reporters.

The comments from top Japanese officials came after Bessent made a courtesy visit to Ishiba in Tokyo, before attending a US national day event on Saturday at World Expo 2025 in Osaka.

The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.