China Keeps Lending Rates Steady; Trade War Raises Bets for Stimulus

Source: AP

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD continues to climb rapidly, driven by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback came under pressure after reports surfaced that the White House is exploring legal grounds to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump has reportedly voiced frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates.

This development has intensified market concerns about political interference in central bank independence, compounding existing unease over trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s broader economic agenda.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also warned over the weekend that new tariffs could drag on US economic growth, further fuelling demand for the euro and safe alternatives to the dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is firmly within a rising price channel. The Alligator indicator confirms the uptrend, and the breakout above 1.1500 signals continued bullish strength.

As long as bulls hold the price above 1.1500, a move toward 1.1600 is likely in the near term. However, if bears manage to push the pair back below 1.1500, a short-term correction toward 1.1400 could develop.

Source：Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a rapid surge on the first day of the week, driven by growing optimism surrounding the United States’ global trade agreements. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin traded at around $84,000 early in the day, quickly rising to surpass $87,000 and achieving a 2.1% gain throughout the day. This movement sparked a sense of optimism in the broader cryptocurrency market, positively impacting the prices of several leading altcoins.

Bitcoin Aims for $90,000

Last week proved to be quite tumultuous for Bitcoin. Weekly data from CoinMarketCap revealed that the largest cryptocurrency struggled to surpass the $86,000 mark, with its price dipping to as low as $83,200 at one point. However, particularly favorable developments over the weekend helped to elevate Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price

With this surge, the impacts of the sharp decline experienced earlier in the month began to diminish. Bitcoin had previously fallen to $75,000 due to President Donald Trump‘s imposition of additional tariffs of at least 104% on Chinese goods. Recent statements by Trump have heightened expectations that the trade war could ease, improving investor sentiment.

Trump indicated that the White House has resumed tariff negotiations with China, providing hope to the markets. Experts believe that a reduction in trade war concerns could pave the way for a new wave of growth in the cryptocurrency market. This situation is considered critical for Bitcoin, with potential price movements closely tied to the results of these negotiations.

One of the main reasons for Bitcoin’s sudden rise is attributed to the new Bitcoin purchase made by the publicly-traded Japanese company Metaplanet. The company’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, announced today that they have acquired more BTC. Additionally, cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research suggested that Bitcoin might be poised for significant growth shortly. According to the firm, the downward compression pattern forming in BTC price could set the stage for a sharp upward breakout.

Altcoins Follow Bitcoin’s Lead

Bitcoin’s rise also positively influenced other major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) , XRP, and BNB. Ethereum saw a 1.4% increase throughout the day, while XRP gained 1.5%. Popular meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) and BNB both rose approximately 1.4%, and Cardano (ADA) saw an increase of around 1%. However, Solana (SOL) did not manage to capture the small rally seen by other altcoins.

Source: CryptoSlate

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XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) surged to a new record high at 3,380 USD as demand for safe-haven assets intensifies amid worsening global trade tensions. The sharp decline in the US dollar also continues to support gold’s upside.

Last week, President Donald Trump initiated a new investigation into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports into the US. This move signals an escalation in trade disputes, particularly with China, and has further rattled markets.

The dollar’s slide to a three-year low has made gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, fuelling strong international demand.

Additionally, the recent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank has boosted demand for non-yielding assets like gold in a low-return environment.

Overall, the outlook for gold remains bullish.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend, with the current impulse wave aiming for 3,386 USD. A successful retest of this level may open the path toward 3,400 USD and beyond.

Source：Technical Analysis

An independent central bank is seen by most (including this newsletter) as the bedrock of a functional economy. Officials steer the economy by calibrating the benchmark interest rate on which bank loans and mortgages, among other debt, are based.

Corporations and consumers, in general, like low interest rates because the cost of borrowing is cheaper. The former is incentivized to expand and invest, which, in turn, tend to increase income and spending among the latter. But such behavior can overheat the economy, causing prices to shoot up.

U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated calls for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates might make businesses and people happy — at the cost of letting inflation run rampant again. Factor in Trump's tariffs, which are taxes on imports and hence fundamentally price increases, and inflation could be getting two shots in the arm.

That's why central bankers tend to operate independently from the government. An administration that aims to please the populace might cut rates despite high inflation, leading to further economic difficulties.

It's a relief markets in the U.S. and Europe were on a break for the Good Friday holiday when Trump made his comments.

What you need to know today

Trump again calls for Powell to cut ratesU.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that "if we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too." The White House said Friday that officials are assessing whether they can remove the Fed chair. This is not the first time Trump has criticized Powell's approach to U.S. monetary policy.

Growing disapproval of Trump's economic handlingAccording to a CNBC survey of 1,000 Americans, 55% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy, the first time in any CNBC poll that he has been net negative on the economy while president. More Americans now believe the economy will get worse than at any time since 2023, and they are sharply more pessimistic about the stock market, according to survey results.

China keeps interest rates steadyAsia-Pacific markets were mixed Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost roughly 1.3%. However, mainland China's CSI 300 added around 0.3% as the People's Bank of China kept its loan prime rates unchanged. The 1-year LPR currently stands at 3.1% and the 5-year rate is at 3.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected this outcome, which suggests the PBOC is prioritizing the stability of the yuan over stimulating the economy.

Beijing vows 'reciprocal countermeasures' China's Ministry of Commerce warned on Monday that Beijing firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests. If this happens, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures," according to a CNBC translation. The Trump administration is reportedly planning to use tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. partners into curtailing their dealings with China. 

U.S economic activity might 'fall off' in summerThe U.S. economy could be experiencing an elevated level of activity now as shoppers and businesses stock up on goods before tariffs kick in, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Sunday. "Activity might look artificially high in the initial, and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all." Sectors most affected include the auto industry and electric components, Goolsbee said.

Executive order to overhaul State DepartmentThe Trump administration could soon roll out sweeping changes to the U.S. State Department, according to a 16-page draft executive order obtained by CNBC. If enacted, the order would shutter American embassies across Southern Africa, eliminate bureaus that work on issues like democracy and human rights, as well as international organizations like the United Nations.

[PRO] Earnings might displace tariffs as focusMarket gyrations because of Trump tariffs might be subdued — but not entirely subside — this week, according to strategists. Investor attention will turn to first-quarter earnings reports, with Tesla and Alphabet announcing their performance on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

Trump tariffs push Asian trade partners to weigh investing in massive Alaska energy project

Alaska has long sought to build an 800-mile pipeline that would eventually cool gas into liquid for export to Asia. The project, which has a staggering price tag topping $40 billion, has been stuck on the drawing board for years.

Alaska LNG, as the project is known, is showing new signs of life — with Trump touting the project as a national priority. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the liquified natural gas project could play an important role in trade negotiations with South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

"We are thinking about a big LNG project in Alaska that South Korea, Japan [and] Taiwan are interested in financing and taking a substantial portion of the offtake," Bessent told reporters on April 9, saying such an agreement would help meet Trump's goal of reducing the U.S. trade deficit.

Source: CNBC