Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Despite Middle East tensions and a weaker USD, gold is declining after breaking key support. Analysts suggest rising stability and a potential USD rebound may push gold prices lower in the near term.

In yesterday’s article entitled Trump’s Art of the USD, I wrote that the Peak Chaos was likely reached and now the markets are likely to react to even moderate levels of chaos as if the latter was gone, or low. On top of that, it seems that Trump’s previous plan to create uncertainty giving him leverage in negotiations is now turning into the stage where some results would be necessary. Please note that it’s not just my own interpretation – it’s what Trump wrote himself in his Art of the Deal book, which is now the blueprint for his actions.

From Chaos to Control

That’s probably why he’s insisting on the narrative that Iran’s nuclear facilities were completely destroyed despite the report from Pentagon says otherwise.

The latter confirms that we’re likely headed into a period of greater stability, however unlikely it may seem given all that happened in the previous weeks.

Gold and mining stocks seem to be already sensing that as they are already declining. In fact, gold did something that it wasn’t able to do months – it confirmed the breakdown below its rising support line.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_1

The support line is based on the local bottoms that we saw in January and February. Gold price tried to break below this price four times: in March, in April, twice in May, and once in early June. In each of those cases, the breakdown was quickly invalidated. By quickly, I mean that gold never managed to stay below this line for three days.

Until yesterday.

Yesterday marked the third consecutive daily close below this rising support line, and since gold is not rallying today (and neither is silver), it seems that we’ll get a fourth daily close below it soon. Gold is still holding above $3,300 per ounce, but it might not be for long.

On top of that, we see that this time, gold first moved back to this trend line and failed to rally above it. This was a tiny verification, and now we have the final confirmation coming from the daily closes.

Same with gold miners.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_2

Yes, the GDXJ did reverse before the end of the day, but it was still the lowest daily close recorded in June.

Plus, this ETF closed $0.01 (but still) below its highest April price. We still have several days left before the end of the month, and given that gold is now declining almost regardless of what’s going on in the world, it seems quite likely that we’ll see GDXJ in the red in June.

For example, gold ignored USD’s move to its recent lows.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_3

When the USD Index declined to about 98 in April, gold soared.

When the USD Index declined to about 98 in early June, gold moved up, but not significantly so.

And now, with the USD Index testing 98 once again, gold is declining.

Plus, the USD Index’s turning point is about to be reached – the USDX has a tendency to reverse its course close to the turn of the month. Earlier this year, these were local tops, but in the previous years, we saw many bottoms on those occasions. As the most recent move was to the downside, this might mark the final bottom.

Again, gold is declining despite the military conflict between Israel and Iran (and even regardless of the involvement of the U.S. bombers) as well as the move lower in the USD Index.

This is a clear sign that gold is ready to fall further – probably significantly so.

– But PR, the USD Index has been trading this low for almost 50 days now – isn’t this too long for a bottom? Won’t it slide from here after all?

No.

I mean, anything could happen on the markets, but this is very unlikely in my view.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_4

USD Isn’t the Weakest Link

The USD Index is sitting on combination of very powerful support levels – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2008 – 2022 rally as well as the 61.8% Fib. retracements based on the 2018 – 2022 and 2020 – 2022 rallies.

Yes, issues like twin deficits remain unresolved, but let’s keep in mind that the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates – and fundamental situations in the Eurozone and Japan are not really better than they are in the U.S. – and the same goes for other countries, but EUR and JPY have the highest weight in the USD Index.

Besides, broad bottoms in the USD Index are quite common – and the final bottoms quite often form close to the middle of the year, which is exactly where we are right now.

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_5

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_6

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_7

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_8

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_9

Ceasefire or Not – Gold Is Still Declining_10

As you can see, in recent years, there were two cases when the broad bottom formed between 50 and 60 trading days. In other cases, those bottoms took longer.

Consequently, with this bottom being formed over 47 trading days (as of today) is completely normal. In fact, if the USD Index rallies from here, it will be the shortest bottoming period in a long time.

This creates the opposite question – has enough time passed for the USD Index to form the final bottom? In my view, the answer is yes, as 47 is not far from 50, and Trump’s decision framework now calls for some successes and stability. This should be positive for the U.S. dollar (while being negative for gold).

Did gold rally based on the increased (real and perceived) chaos in the previous weeks and months? Of course.

But does it mean that it will rally more? Not necessarily. Gold has not only managed NOT to rally despite further increases in chaos (Middle East), but even declining in this environment. This, plus the fact that Trump’s Art of the USD now calls for results – and likely increased levels of stability – higher values of USD and lower values of gold are to be expected.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

After a brief Sunday dip below $99,000, possibly caused by the Israeli-Iran war, bitcoin price has reclaimed its position above the psychological $100,000 mark, now reaching $107,000. Yet beneath the surface, a curious divergence is unfolding. Despite surging prices, Bitcoin’s on-chain activity looks eerily subdued. Retail seems strangely absent from this bull market, which increasingly becomes a game for whales, institutions, and sophisticated traders.

On-chain ghost town

In its recent report, Glassnode paints a clear picture: the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network has dropped, but the size of those transactions has ballooned.

For most of 2024, the Bitcoin blockchain processed an average of 600,000 transactions daily, a number that has since fallen to 400,000. This trend stems largely from the collapse in demand for non-monetary Bitcoin uses like Ordinals and Runes, whose popularity exploded between mid and late 2024 but faded sharply in early 2025.

As to Bitcoin settlement volume, it still averages $7.5 billion daily after peaked at $16 billion during the $100K breakout last November. However, the average transaction now moves $36,200—an unusually high figure historically. This implies that the Bitcoin network is more and more used by larger entities.

Bitcoin regains $107K — but this bull run looks like a whales-only game_1

The trend is stark. Transactions worth over $100K accounted for 66% of all network volume in late 2022. Today, that figure stands at 89%. Meanwhile, smaller transactions—those under $100K—have shrunk to just 11% of network volume. In short, high-net-worth players are becoming the main drivers of Bitcoin’s base layer activity.

Off-chain derivatives are booming

While on-chain metrics show a quieter network, Bitcoin trading is anything but subdued. Activity has overwhelmingly shifted to off-chain venues—primarily centralized exchanges and derivatives markets.

While spot markets’ trading volume has decreased since the November-March rallies from around $20 billion to around $7 billion daily, the futures market remains impressive. Off-chain futures volume currently sits at above $49 billion daily, with regular peaks above $80 billion.

Options trading is surging, now averaging $3.2 billion daily—more than double its level last year. This growth signals that more sophisticated investors are using options for hedging and precision exposure.

Altogether, trading in futures, options, and spot exceeds on-chain settlement by a factor of 7 to 16.

Unsurprisingly, leverage continues to accumulate, with total open interest in futures and options reaching $96.2B. Glassnode also notes that the collateral composition has improved structurally, with stablecoin-margined positions now comprising the majority of open interest.

Bitcoin regains $107K — but this bull run looks like a whales-only game_2

Institutions accumulate

Indeed, institutional and government entities are stepping up their game. Over 400,000 BTC—roughly 2% of the total supply—have been acquired by ETFs, corporations, and public entities since the start of the year.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and BlackRock’s IBIT remain leaders in public stock and ETF categories, respectively, with 145,945 BTC and 130,850 BTC.

Bitcoin regains $107K — but this bull run looks like a whales-only game_3

With Michael Saylor showing the way, an increasing number of companies are actively adding BTC to their treasuries. Just in the past month, several publicly traded firms disclosed new BTC purchases, including GameStop (GME), Mega Matrix (MPU), Belgravia Hartford Capital (BLGV), Standard Supply, ANAP, DDC, The Blockchain Group (ALTBG) and of course, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). The US president’s conglomerate has raised $2.5 billion specifically to build a bitcoin reserve.

Bitcoin ETFs are no less aggressive. According to CoinShares, they have posted 10 consecutive weeks of crypto inflows, totaling a record $12.7 billion year-to-date.

Even governments are joining in. Last week, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a bill establishing the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a state-managed fund that will hold Bitcoin as part of the state’s long-term financial assets.

This bull market belongs to big players. As retail activity fades from the chain and speculative activity migrates to futures and options, Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving into something more mature, more institutional—and arguably more fragile if leverage gets out of hand.

Source: marketscreener

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is up 10% to $108,200 from $98,400 local lows, reclaiming key support.

Bitcoin’s bull pennant on the daily chart targets 54% gains to $165,000.

Exchange flows are at a 10-year low, signaling investors continue to hold long-term.

Bitcoin price registered a weekly high of $108,200 on June 25 after a 10% rise from its local low at $98,400 three days prior. BTC has now reclaimed a key support level as prices continued to consolidate below its $112,000 all-time high range.

Can Bitcoin price rise over 50% in the next few days?

Bitcoin “bullish pennant” hints at $165,000

Bitcoin rallied by 52% between April 8 and May 22 to reach an all-time high of $112,000. Since then, BTC price has oscillated between the all-time high and $100,000. The latest recovery from six-week lows below $100,000 suggests that the bulls are aggressively defending this level.

“Bitcoin reclaimed the key support area,” said popular crypto analyst Jelle in a June 25 post on X, adding that the BTC is now back inside a pennant on the daily chart.

A bull pennant is a continuation pattern that occurs after a significant rise, followed by a consolidation period at the higher price end of the range.

“Break above $110K, and this flies a lot higher.” Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_1

Bitcoin daily chart analysis. Source: Jelle

A positive breakout from the pennant could potentially lead to the next leg up for Bitcoin, measured at $165,200 or 54% from its current price level. Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_2

Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_2

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, it is important to note that the success rate of a bullish pennant is only around 54%, which makes it one of the least reliable patterns.

Merlijn The Trader, a Bitcoin analyst, shared a similar bullish outlook, predicting a BTC price of $140,000 based on an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.

“Break $112K and there’s nothing stopping $BTC from flying to $140K+.”

Other projections are even more ambitious, with some analysts citing soaring US debt and President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, putting BTC’s top between $200,000 and $250,000.

Bitcoin exchange flows hit 10-year lows

Bitcoin may be trading significantly closer to its all-time highs, with supply in profit above 96%, but demand for BTC among exchange users is drying up.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals the daily average volume of flows on exchanges hitting 10-year lows on June 25.

“The average volume of flows (Inflow + Outflow) on centralized exchanges has decreased to 40,000 BTC per day - this is the lowest figure in the past 10 years,” noted Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., adding:

“A significant portion of BTC has left the platforms, which is a sign of consolidation and potential liquidity shortage.” Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_3

Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_3

Bitcoin daily exchange flow. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Fewer inflows could mean investors are moving their BTC into self-custody wallets, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

As Cointelegraph reported, overall exchange BTC balances are at their lowest in seven years. Bitcoin balance on exchanges is 2.92 million BTC as of June 25, levels last seen in June 2019, as per Glassnode data. Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_4

Bitcoin’s ‘Bull Pennant’ Targets $165K as BTC Exchange Flows Hit 10-Year Lows_4

Bitcoin exchange reserve. Source: Glassnode

Reducing supply on exchanges means less Bitcoin is readily available for trading, potentially leading to a liquidity shortage and higher prices in the long term.

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

The benchmark S&P 500 hovered close to an all-time high on Wednesday as an Israel-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding and investors watched Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony for hints on the monetary policy path.

The S&P 500 (.SPX), index remains about 0.6% below its peak, hit in February, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC), is about 0.8% below a record high as the de-escalation in Middle East hostilities supported risk sentiment.

The Nasdaq 100 (.NDX), - a subset of the Nasdaq composite index - touched an intraday record high.

Despite isolated violations of the ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump a day earlier, investors remained optimistic that the truce between the two warring nations would last.

On Tuesday, the first day of Powell's congressional testimony, he emphasized the Fed's wait-and-watch approach to interest rates as tariff-led price pressures kick in. However, he also said a lower-than-expected inflation reading or weakness in the labor market would push the central bank to cut sooner.

Fed Boston President Susan Collins mirrored Powell's stance on Wednesday and said "much will depend on whether the 'price shock' from tariffs dissipates quickly".

"Chair Powell and his team want to digest the data and see what that looks like before they embark on an easing campaign and to me that makes sense," said Bill Fitzpatrick, managing director at Logan Capital Management.

Money market moves show traders are pricing in about 60 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a nearly 70% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

At 10:15 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), fell 45.39 points, or 0.11%, to 43,043.63, the S&P 500 (.SPX), gained 6.94 points, or 0.11%, to 6,099.12 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC), gained 72.26 points, or 0.36%, to 19,984.48.

Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sub-sectors fell. Real estate (.SPLRCR), and utility (.SPLRCU), stocks led declines with a 0.7% decline each. On the flip side, the information technology (.SPLRCT), sector gained 1.1%.

Shares of delivery giant FedEx (FDX.N), fell 2.9% after the company forecast quarterly profit below estimates as tariffs weighed on global demand.

Among megacap stocks, Tesla (TSLA.O), shares fell 4.3% as its European sales slumped for the fifth month. Nvidia (NVDA.O), rose 2.6%.

The Commerce Department's final take on first-quarter GDP is due on Thursday, while Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will help investors ascertain the economic effects of Trump's tariffs that have kept global markets on edge since the start of the year.

General Mills (GIS.N), shares dipped nearly 3% after the packaged food maker forecast annual profit below expectations.

U.S.-listed shares of cybersecurity firm Blackberry jumped 17.4% after the company raised its annual revenue forecast citing steady demand amid growing online crimes.

Crypto exchange Coinbase Global (COIN.O), rose 2.6% after Bernstein raised its price target to a Street high.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.89-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 33 new lows.

Source: reuters

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Middle East Situation

President Donald Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement, citing the damage that American bombing had done to its key nuclear sites.

“We’re going to talk to them next week,” Trump said Wednesday during a press conference during the NATO summit at The Hague. “We may sign an agreement. I don’t know, to me, I don’t think it’s necessary.”

He reiterated that the US bombing of the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow facilities had “obliterated” them, again disputing an American intelligence assessment that said the strikes only set back Tehran’s nuclear program by a matter of months.

Trump this week has taken credit for brokering an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, which had threatened to escalate into a wider regional war and upend energy markets.

The president said Wednesday that the conflict was effectively “over” after the US bombing mission — though he also warned: “Can it start again? I guess someday it can. It could maybe start soon,” he said.

As the missiles fell silent and oil markets plunged — wiping out most of the increase during 12 days of war — focus has switched to the next stage of nuclear diplomacy with Iran. The United Nations atomic watchdog said Tuesday that inspections in the country should resume “as soon as possible” to determine what’s happened to Iran’s stocks of uranium enriched to 60% levels, not far short of the 90% required to build a bomb.

The IAEA says it last verified those inventories a few days before Israel’s June 13 attack, and their whereabouts is now unknown.

Trump said the US bunker-buster strikes had eliminated some key risks by burying the country’s materials under “granite, concrete and steel.”

“We think everything nuclear is down there,” he said. “They didn’t take it out.”

Iran’s foreign ministry said Wednesday that its nuclear installations were “badly damaged” by US airstrikes, the first such comments by Tehran. The ministry didn’t give further details and said authorities were still reviewing the situation on the ground.

Trump cited that assessment during his NATO press conference, as well as a statement by Israel’s nuclear agency that said the Fordow site had been rendered inoperable and Tehran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon set back by “many years.”

Earlier this month, Trump had said Iran was “weeks away” from having an atomic weapon, though some experts and US intelligence estimates said it could take months or years for the nation to develop a weapon. Iran maintains that its nuclear program has purely civilian purposes, and that it’s entitled to pursue that goal under international law.

Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites killed several top generals and atomic scientists. Iran countered by firing drones and ballistic missiles into Israel. Both sides have declared victory.

Trump said both nations are “tired, exhausted. They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out.”

The president didn’t say at what level US-Iran talks would resume. Before the Israeli attack, his envoy Steve Witkoff had taken the lead in five rounds of talks with the Islamic Republic, seeking a nuclear deal that would effectively replace the 2015 agreement that Trump abandoned during his first term.

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Cryptocurrency

A new report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) challenged the notion that stablecoins can serve as money in a modern financial system.

According to the BIS Annual Economic Report 2025, stablecoins fail the fundamental tests of “singleness,” “elasticity” and “integrity,” three critical criteria that define effective monetary instruments.

The BIS described stablecoins as “digital bearer instruments” that resemble financial assets more than actual money. “Stablecoins perform poorly when assessed against the three tests for serving as the mainstay of the monetary system,” the report said.

Unlike central bank-backed money, which is accepted “at par” and requires no background checks, private entities issue stablecoins and often trade at fluctuating rates. This undermines the core principle of monetary singleness, the report claimed.

Stablecoins continue to grow, but volatility remains. Source: BIS

Stablecoins fail elasticity and integrity tests

Elasticity, the second test, is crucial for absorbing shocks and meeting large-value payment demands, BIS said in its report.

It pointed out that “any additional supply of stablecoins thus requires full upfront payment by its holders,” likening it to a “strict cash-in-advance setup” that contrasts with the flexibility of modern banking systems, where central banks provide liquidity as needed.

The third and perhaps most damning failure lies in the area of integrity. The report claimed that stablecoins’ design, especially those transacted via unhosted wallets on public blockchains, makes them prone to financial crime.

“Stablecoins have significant shortcomings when it comes to promoting the integrity of the monetary system,” the BIS noted, emphasizing their vulnerability to money laundering, sanctions evasion and terrorist financing.

Cross-border use of stablecoins has been rising. Source: BIS

Stablecoins should have a limited role

While acknowledging the continued demand for stablecoins due to features like cross-border accessibility and lower transaction costs, the BIS argued that they should only play a limited, well-regulated role.

“Society can re-learn the historical lessons about the limitations of unsound money,” the report cautioned. “Bold action by central banks and other public authorities can push the financial system along the right path, in partnership with the financial sector.”

Circle, the company behind USDC, saw its stock drop more than 15% on Tuesday after the BIS report, hitting $222. CRCL shares had reached an all-time high of $299 on Monday.

Despite its hard take on stablecoins, the BIS report praised tokenization as a “transformative innovation” for the next-generation monetary and financial system. It said tokenization builds on the current financial system rather than replacing it.

Some in the crypto community said it is “no surprise” that the BIS paper was generally negative on stablecoins, given that it is a “regulatory body owned by global central banks.”

“The BIS is hysterical in its opposition to crypto,” Jim Walker, chief economist at Aletheia Capital, wrote. “The first criterion, backed by a central bank, should make it a laughing stock given the historical failures of those institutions around the world.”

Source: Zero Hedge

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

USDJPY technicals

The USDJPY has dipped back below both the 100-hour moving average (145.76) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up, tilting the short-term bias to the downside and disappointing the buyers on the break above those levels earlier in the US session. After the break higher, the rally today stalled near the low of the swing area between 145.92 and 146.288, where sellers once again leaned.

The buyers had their shot. They missed.

With the move back below the 100-hour MA confirmed, traders will now focus on the 200-hour moving average at 145.217 and the 50% midpoint at 145.06 as the next key downside targets. Staying below the 100-hour MA keeps sellers in control. Overall, the technical bias is more neutral with the price between the 100/200 hour MAs.