Britain And US To Sign Nuclear Power Pact During Trump's Visit

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Summary:

Britain and the United States will sign a deal to work together on boosting nuclear power during U.S. PresidentDonald Trump's state visit this week, the British government said, helping secure investment to fund new plants.Britain's government has launched a major push to expand nuclear power in recent months, pledging to invest 14 billion pounds ($19 billion) in a new plant at Sizewell C and advancing plans for a Rolls-Royceunit to build the country's first small modular reactors (SMR).Trump arrives in Britain for a two-day visit on Tuesday, during which he and Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce the nuclear power tie-up. The collaboration aims to speed up new projects and investments, including plans expected to be announced by U.S. nuclear reactor company X-Energy and Britain's Centricato build up to 12 advanced modular reactors in northeast England.

An 11 billion pound ($15 billion) project to develop advanced data centres powered by SMRs in central England at the former Cottam coal-fired power station set to be announced by U.S. company Holtec International, France's EDF and real estate partner Tritax, is also on the cards, the statement added."These major commitments set us well on course to a golden age of nuclear that will drive down household bills in the long run," Starmer said on Monday.Trump and Starmer discussed working more closely together on SMRs when they met at the U.S. president's golf resort in Scotland in July.

"Today's commercial deals set up a framework to unleash commercial access in both the U.S. and UK," U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in the statement.The new tie-up will cover nuclear regulation, meaning if a reactor passes safety checks in one country, the other can use the findings to support its own checks, cutting licensing time to two years from three to four years at present.Commenting on its new partnership deal with X-Energy, Centrica's Group CEO Chris O’Shea said it would build a resilient, affordable, low-carbon energy system, while X-Energy's CEO J. Clay Sell said Hartlepool was the right place for it to scale its technology in Britain given its experienced workforce and local services.

Holtec chair and CEO Kris Singh said its plan with EDF would create thousands of local jobs while drawing on the lessons from its Palisades project in Michigan, while Simone Rossi, CEO of EDF in the UK, said the plan would benefit energy security.In a related announcement, Rolls-Royce said it had entered the U.S. regulatory process for its SMR, paving the way for potential new jobs and investment in the U.S.Among the other investments expected to be announced is a deal for UK-based Urenco to supply an advanced type of low-enriched uranium to the U.S. market.

Source: TradingView

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Moving into the final quarter of the year, investors face a series of questions around key macroeconomic variables that will define the growth and risk asset outlook for 2026, and hope that the balance will get things “just right.”Looking back to the 1990s, the notion of a “Goldilocks economy” was created to describe an economic environment that was “not too hot, not too cold”—mirroring the fairy tale’s “just right” porridge. This metaphor caught fire, and even today most investors are familiar with the phrase as characterizing a beneficial balance of growth and inflation that allows the Federal Reserve to be accommodative with policy rates.

Capital markets now hope that this “just right” scenario will play out, where the economy expands steadily without overheating (stoking inflation) or slipping into recession. While recent data is trending positively, it is fair to say we are all still testing the porridge and awaiting further clarity.

The Fed meeting this week will command much of the market’s focus, but it is ultimately the macroeconomic data underpinning the pace of future rate cuts that should continue to preoccupy investors over the coming quarter.Labor and inflation data released in the past three months, including last week’s U.S. jobless claims and consumer and producer price index numbers, have strengthened expectations for continued monetary easing. Yet open questions remain about the growth outlook and the impact of any changes in underlying dynamics.

Can the economy, for instance, remain resilient despite a softening job market? Can we be assured that the labor economy will maintain this subdued pace of job gains (or slight losses), or is the porridge losing its heat and putting us at risk of a material employment contraction? Is consumer strength sufficient to offset weaker employment? Will the impact of tariffs on inflation continue to be more benign than expected, or is it simply too early to declare victory?These questions will be top-of-mind for our Asset Allocation Committee ahead of its quarterly outlook discussion later this month, with significant implications for the equities outlook, the trajectory of rates, and the shape of the risk asset landscape more broadly.

An Eye on Jobs

Currently, the more pressing area to monitor is the labor market. We’ve now had two straight months of softness in nonfarm payrolls and now a surprising rise in U.S. initial jobless claims: They jumped 263,000 in the week through September 6. Indeed, these recent data releases show that not only has jobs growth slowed but, based on preliminary annual revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that an estimated 911,000 fewer jobs were created than previously thought for the 12 months ending in March 2025.

Taken at face value, the revision implies that average monthly job creation may have been about half as strong as the 149,000 jobs per month previously reported. Overall, that would reduce the total number of nonfarm jobs by 0.6%, the largest downward adjustment since 2009. Combined with unemployment ticking up, clear warning signs are flashing in the labor market.In our view, these signs are not yet triggering recessionary fears, particularly as economists think the rate of breakeven employment growth is trending lower given declines in net immigration from border policies and deportations. This said, we remain vigilant regarding any acceleration in the deterioration of the jobs market.

Keeping Inflation in Mind

After mixed signals from the July Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers, last week’s August inflation data was more consistent in indicating that tariffs so far appear to be having a measured or moderate impact on prices.August CPI was in line with expectations, rising 2.9%—up from 2.7% in July—year-over-year with core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbing 3.1%, the same as the previous month. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.4%, slightly above consensus forecast.

More strikingly, annual PPI increased only 2.6%, significantly decelerating from the 3.3% rate recorded in July and the 3.3% forecast. Core PPI in August increased 2.8%, down from 3.7% the previous month. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.1%, well short of the estimated 0.3% rise.Investors are eager to see how these more recent inflation trends translate into annual core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, which increased 2.9% in July. While inflation levels are still well above target, they are trending more favorably than most expected as tariffs are being digested, which has given the Fed a more palatable dynamic to work with.

A Dovish Tilt

Clearly, labor market data has pointed to a more abrupt slowdown in employment than previously expected, which is sufficient to justify hitting the “play” button on restarting Fed cuts after “pause” was hit nine months ago. Investors are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut this week—consistent with our view—and closer to anticipating a total of three rate cuts this year.It is logical that the market has shifted to a more dovish posture, but markets are pricing more aggressive action by the Fed, with rate cuts through 2026 to a neutral rate closer to 3%. However, we think this terminal rate pricing may be too optimistic. The Fed’s dual mandates will be tested as inflation will likely remain well above its 2% target, which will make the monetary easing path complex and more uncertain than the markets seem to be expecting.

Looking Ahead

As we move into the final quarter of the year, we believe there are good reasons to be constructive in our outlook on economic fundamentals and risk markets over the medium term, a view that has been consistent throughout the year. Playing into this is that corporate earnings remain strong, capital expenditure cycles are picking up, and even the IPO and M&A markets are stirring.Potential surprises in employment and inflation data, or some other macro or geopolitical event, could, of course, provoke short-term market volatility, and investors should be mindful of these risks as they manage allocations. As ever, and in this environment in particular, diversification across asset classes is important to mitigate any turbulence.

In anticipation of those moments, it’s important to note that we see ample liquidity on the sidelines that would help absorb any shocks and act as a buffer for risk assets, as investors remain bullish on the long-term health of the economy and trajectory for earnings.While Goldilocks has yet to make her final choice on her favorite porridge, we think that once we emerge from the current period of deceleration, the stage is set for a “just right” balance between strengthening economic growth and manageable inflation in 2026, opening the door to a more accommodative monetary policy stance.

Source: Neuberger Berman

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Forex

● Pakistan launches a national licensing framework for crypto firms

● Aims to attract global crypto companies to operate legally

● Step signals growing acceptance of digital assets in Pakistan

Pakistan has officially invited global cryptocurrency firms to operate legally under its new national licensing regime. This move marks a significant shift in the country’s approach to digital assets, signaling a more open and regulated environment for blockchain and crypto-related businesses.The new framework, introduced by the Pakistani government, aims to bring structure and legal clarity to the crypto space. By offering licenses to global players, Pakistan is looking to position itself as a friendly destination for innovation in financial technology. The initiative could pave the way for greater investment, job creation, and access to global markets.

This approach contrasts sharply with the earlier stance of regulatory uncertainty and partial bans on crypto trading platforms in the country. Now, with a formal system in place, firms will be able to register, operate, and comply with local regulations — just like any other financial institution.

A Strategic Move Towards Fintech Growth

The decision to introduce crypto licensing is part of a broader strategy to boost Pakistan’s digital economy. Officials see regulated crypto activity as a way to attract foreign investment and tap into the global financial tech wave.The new policy also aims to curb illegal activity by encouraging companies to operate within a legal framework. Licensing is expected to improve transparency and customer protection while giving the state greater oversight over digital asset transactions.Industry experts believe this could put Pakistan on the crypto map, alongside countries like the UAE, Singapore, and Switzerland that have already embraced regulated crypto operations.

What This Means for Global Crypto Players

For international crypto companies, this is an open invitation to explore a fast-growing market of over 240 million people. Startups and established firms alike can now apply for licenses and operate within the bounds of Pakistani law — reducing risk and opening doors to new users.In the coming months, the government is expected to release more detailed guidelines, including compliance requirements, tax obligations, and consumer protection measures.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

Key points:

● Britain hopes royal welcome will appeal to Trump.

● Tariff rates for steel and aluminium still to be finalised.

● Tech partnership and nuclear energy deal to be announced.

● Despite differences, Starmer and Trump have good relationship.

Trump and his wife, Melania, will be treated to a display of British royal pageantry during their visit on Wednesday, including a carriage tour, a state banquet, a flypast by military aircraft and a gun salute.

The British government hopes the soft power of the royals will appeal to Trump as it seeks tighter defence, security and energy ties with Washington, having already secured a favourable tariff deal.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Trump at his Chequers country residence on Thursday to discuss working more closely together, on issues like Ukraine, and with the aim of finalising promised lower tariffs for steel and aluminium.

A spokesperson for Starmer said the leaders would sign "a world-leading tech partnership" and "a major civil nuclear deal" during the trip.

"The UK-U.S. relationship is the strongest in the world," Starmer's spokesperson told reporters. "This week we are delivering a step change in that relationship."

The British leader, a technocrat and a self-proclaimed socialist, and Trump, a proudly unpredictable politician who has pushed the Republican Party further to the right, have overcome their differences to develop a good working relationship.

Starmer was the first world leader to agree an economic deal with Trump on reducing his global tariffs.

Under that agreement, the United States said it planned to reduce tariffs on imports of cars and aluminum and steel. While details on car tariffs were agreed in June, the deal for steel and aluminium is yet to be finalised.

"When it comes to steel, we will make sure that we have an announcement as soon as possible," British business minister Peter Kyle told the BBC on Sunday.

Before Trump's arrival, Britain on Saturday announced over 1.25 billion pounds ($1.69 billion) of U.S. investment from PayPal, Bank of America and others, while Nvidia and OpenAI are expected to announce investment deals as part of the technology agreement, according to sources, who asked not to be named.

CoreWeave, a U.S. cloud computing provider, also said it would announce investments in Britain this week.

A delegation of British officials will be in the United States on Monday to finalise the details of Trump's visit, Starmer's spokesperson said.

Those talks will be complicated by Starmer's decision last week to fire Peter Mandelson, his ambassador to the United States, over his ties with the late convicted U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The sacking is deeply embarrassing for Starmer, who appointed him to Britain's most desirable diplomatic post less than a year ago.

This will be Trump's second visit to Britain in the last two months after he spent time in Scotland at his golf courses at the end of July.

During this week's visit, Starmer's spokesperson said there would also be announcements on deepening cultural ties, including promoting basketball in Britain and developing partnerships between heritage and art institutions.

Source: Reuters

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Daniel Carter

Political

Trump last week asked the Washington-based appeals court to temporarily pause a lower court's Sept. 9 injunction blocking him from firing Cook while her lawsuit challenging her dismissal proceeds. A ruling from the three-judge appellate panel could come as soon as later Sunday or Monday.

If the appeals court denies the Justice Department's request for a so-called stay order, the president is likely to immediately ask the Supreme Court to intervene, setting up a series of last-ditch arguments with the justices by both sides before a highly anticipated Fed policy meeting Sept. 16-17.

Trump moved to fire Cook last month after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, one of the president's most outspoken supporters, accused her of committing mortgage fraud. He alleged that she declared two homes in Georgia and Michigan as her primary residence in order to get better loan terms. The real estate transactions predated her time on the Fed.

Cook "has provided no explanation for the contradictory representations apparent on the face of her mortgage agreements, and that alone is grounds to stay the extraordinary" preliminary injunction, the Justice Department said in a filing Sunday afternoon.

Yet Trump's new filing comes just days after revelations that Cook described the disputed Georgia property as a "vacation home," according to documents viewed by Bloomberg News. The May 2021 loan estimate was issued by a credit union weeks before Cook purchased the home. The document shows she told the lender that the property wouldn't be her primary residence.

The Justice Department's filing did not address those revelations.

Cook's lawyer Abbe Lowell made his final arguments against Trump's stay request in a filing on Saturday, repeatedly contending that the Fed's independence would be shattered if the court allowed the economist to be fired over unproven allegations with questionable motives.

"A stay by this court would therefore be the first signal from the courts that our system of government is no longer able to guarantee the independence of the Federal Reserve," Lowell said. "Nothing would then stop the president from firing other members of the Board on similarly flimsy pretexts. The era of Fed independence would be over."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Gerik

Economic

Buffett Defies Trend with Billion-Dollar Stake in Steel

Warren Buffett’s name is not typically associated with high-tech bets. Known for conservative, value-driven investment strategies, the legendary investor has spent years reducing Berkshire Hathaway’s exposure to U.S. equities. Yet in a surprising reversal, filings revealed that Buffett invested $953 million across two consecutive quarters into Nucor Corp. a company not traditionally linked to the artificial intelligence (AI) wave but now standing at the intersection of industrial production and digital transformation.

The timing of this investment has raised questions. Why would Buffett allocate fresh capital to an American steelmaker in 2025 after 11 straight quarters of net selling in U.S. markets? The answer appears to lie in the evolving relationship between AI and physical infrastructure.

AI Growth and the Hidden Role of Steel

At first glance, Nucor appears misaligned with the AI boom. Its core business is steel production, with a modest forward P/E ratio of just 12.6, far removed from the elevated valuations of AI software and semiconductor firms. But on closer inspection, the strategic logic becomes evident.

Nucor operates the largest network of electric arc furnaces in the United States, making it a leader in cost-effective domestic steel manufacturing. In a year where imported steel faces a 50 percent tariff, Nucor's position as a domestic supplier becomes a key competitive advantage. This is particularly relevant as the U.S. undergoes a surge in digital infrastructure spending, spurred by AI’s relentless growth.

AI data centers, with their immense physical and electrical demands, are being constructed across the U.S. at an unprecedented rate. Steel serves as the foundational material for structural frames, power conduits, cooling systems, and protective enclosures. Nucor has already secured contracts for several major data center projects, positioning itself not just as a commodity producer, but as a critical enabler of the AI ecosystem.

In this context, Buffett’s investment appears more calculated than speculative. It is a reflection of how AI’s rise is not limited to cloud software or chip design but requires large-scale, tangible infrastructure exactly the domain where Nucor thrives.

Long-Term Performance and Market Confidence

Nucor’s long-term performance reinforces Buffett’s confidence. Since its IPO in 1972, the company’s stock has surged by 7,450%. Over the last five years, shares climbed nearly 215%, and they are up approximately 21% year-to-date in 2025. These figures suggest that Nucor is not merely riding a short-term wave but has demonstrated durable value creation over multiple cycles.

Buffett’s two-quarter accumulation further signals conviction. While Berkshire’s filing revealed the investment only recently, the phased buying approach indicates strategic entry and confidence in medium- to long-term growth.

Risks and Competitive Pressure Remain

Despite the optimism, investors must remain alert to key risks. Steel, by nature, is a cyclical industry. During economic downturns, construction and manufacturing slow, compressing margins. If AI infrastructure expansion loses steam or capital expenditures tighten, demand for steel could retreat sharply. In such a scenario, Nucor’s recent production expansions could turn into liabilities, increasing debt burden and operational inefficiencies.

Moreover, Nucor is not alone in targeting AI-fueled demand. Other steelmakers are ramping up capacity and capabilities to compete for the same contracts. Over time, heightened competition could erode Nucor’s cost advantages, especially if rivals receive similar regulatory tailwinds or enter partnerships with tech firms.

It is important to distinguish between short-term correlation and long-term causality. While AI data centers are driving current demand for steel, it remains uncertain whether this demand will sustain the sector’s margins once supply catches up or economic cycles shift.

Strategic Implications for Investors

Buffett’s bet on Nucor reveals a nuanced investment thesis: that the real value in the AI revolution may lie not only in algorithms or GPUs but in the concrete, physical expansion of the digital world. This logic aligns with his historical preference for essential, infrastructure-heavy businesses that exhibit pricing power and scalability.

For other investors, the message is clear. The AI story is broader than big tech it also involves upstream industries like energy, utilities, and materials. Nucor’s role as a backbone provider to this digital shift makes it a compelling case study in how traditional sectors can benefit from modern innovation trends.

Warren Buffett’s near-billion-dollar investment in Nucor underscores a rare pivot in his portfolio strategy away from retreat and toward selective re-engagement with U.S. equities. Driven by AI’s infrastructure needs and reinforced by tariffs favoring domestic producers, Nucor stands as a bridge between old-industry manufacturing and new-age technology. While risks of competition and cyclical downturns persist, Buffett’s move invites investors to reconsider where real growth may emerge in a digital-first economy.

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Gerik

Economic

U.S. Sanctions Trigger Strategic Realignment in Latin America

In an attempt to influence Brazil’s judicial proceedings, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration imposed punitive tariffs and sanctions on the South American giant, demanding the dismissal of charges against ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. Rather than yielding, Brazil responded with firm resistance, enforcing a 27-year prison sentence on Bolsonaro and rejecting what many in Brazil saw as foreign interference in a sovereign legal process.

The result has been a diplomatic setback for the United States and a geopolitical opening for China. As tensions with Washington rise, Brazil is moving closer to Beijing, both economically and politically, with deepened collaboration under the BRICS alliance.

Escalating U.S. Pressure and Brazil’s Defiance

Trump’s approach included a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian exports, the revocation of visas for several Brazilian officials, and targeted sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the Bolsonaro case. This was accompanied by a trade investigation and public criticism of Brazil’s judiciary.

Nonetheless, Brazil’s institutions remained unified. Justice de Moraes received public backing, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva gained political momentum by challenging Washington’s rhetoric, and the judiciary collectively dismissed the notion that foreign leaders could sway legal decisions via political pressure.

The logic of causality here is clear: punitive U.S. economic measures, instead of inducing legal leniency, reinforced Brazilian resolve to uphold domestic legal processes and pushed the country to diversify international alliances.

The Economic Boomerang: China Steps In

While the U.S. tariffs took effect, Brazil’s exports to China surged by 31 percent in August, compensating for an 18.5 percent drop in exports to the U.S. Brazil’s total export revenue still rose 4 percent, largely driven by heightened Chinese demand for commodities like beef, coffee, and sugar goods directly impacted by the new U.S. tariffs.

This outcome indicates a strong correlation between U.S. sanctions and Brazil’s accelerated economic pivot toward China. The causal link becomes more compelling when viewed in light of Brazil’s increased diplomatic exchanges with China, including two direct conversations between President Lula and President Xi Jinping since the U.S. tariffs were enforced, with no such contact between Lula and Trump.

Public Sentiment Shifts and Institutional Fractures

The diplomatic rift has extended into public perception. A national survey showed Brazilian public favorability toward the U.S. declined from 58 percent in February 2024 to 44 percent by August. Conversely, positive views of China rose from 38 percent to 49 percent in the same period. These shifts underscore the reputational cost of coercive diplomacy and the soft power vacuum being filled by Beijing.

Moreover, while American officials accused Justice de Moraes of infringing on free speech for requiring social media platforms to block extremist content, the judge defended these actions as necessary to preserve democratic order, especially amid credible threats against his life. The internal Brazilian debate remains polarized, but the external pressure from Washington has largely been rejected as illegitimate.

Geopolitical Consequences and the BRICS Factor

Brazil’s deepening ties with China do not occur in isolation. As a rotating chair of BRICS a bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa Brazil is now positioned to help lead a multipolar rebalancing of global power. The recent deterioration in U.S.-Brazil relations has only heightened the symbolic and strategic importance of the BRICS framework as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions.

The shift reflects a broader recalibration of Brazil’s foreign policy, which increasingly centers on non-aligned partnerships and South-South cooperation. The more Washington resorts to economic instruments to force political outcomes, the more it undermines its influence in regions like Latin America, where historical memory and sovereignty remain powerful narratives.

Trump’s hardline strategy toward Brazil has backfired. Rather than achieving a favorable political resolution, it has strained bilateral relations, reduced U.S. economic influence, and encouraged Brazil to double down on its partnership with China. The imposition of punitive trade measures and overt political demands has not only failed to sway Brazil’s judiciary but has also weakened the U.S. image in the region.

If current trends persist, the U.S. risks losing strategic ground in Latin America, while China continues to consolidate its role as Brazil’s primary partner in trade and diplomacy. In the emerging global order, coercion may yield diminishing returns, and Brazil’s stance signals a growing preference for multipolarism and autonomy over external pressure.

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