Bitcoin stays flat amid seasonal drag, as Fed rate cut hopes shift to September

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin remained flat near $105,000 as the Fed held rates steady and delayed expected cuts to September. Stagflation fears and seasonal factors weigh on crypto, though some see upside in uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday, matching forecasts from analysts and CME FedWatch data previously cited by The Block.

Inflation has cooled and tariff worries eased, but slower U.S. growth has stirred stagflation fears, BRN lead analyst Valentin Fournier said. At a news conference after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed confidence in a “disinflationary trend,” sounding dovish, yet he pointed to solid job gains and resilient consumer spending that give policymakers room to keep rates elevated.

Markets now eye September for the earliest possible rate reduction.“With no urgency to cut rates, the Fed reiterated its 'wait-and-see' approach, pushing back expectations for a first cut to no earlier than September,” the BRN analyst told The Block via an emailed note. Futures traders see a 62% chance of monetary easing at the Sept. 17 FOMC session, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Stocks and U.S. equity futures barely budged in pre-market trading a day after. Similarly, cryptocurrencies recorded muted price action. Bitcoin BTC -0.19% hovered near $105,000, while ether and XRP +0.34% also traded flat, The Block’s data showed.

Fed posture boost

A hawkish backdrop could still favor bitcoin, said David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares. Hernandez argued that stagflationary pressure from a slowed economy and “uncomfortably high” unemployment will likely boost BTC’s demand.

“The Fed mentioned that economic uncertainty has diminished but is still very much present,” he said. “This very uncertainty enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against potential policy errors.”

Hernandez noted that easing elsewhere could funnel liquidity into crypto, especially BTC. Earlier Thursday, the Swiss National Bank cut rates to zero. The European Central Bank has trimmed borrowing costs eight times since June 2024.

“Because it is a decentralized, borderless digital asset, Bitcoin is uniquely positioned to absorb these capital inflows, regardless of the Fed's domestic policy stance. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's latest projections paint a picture of an economy under strain, facing the difficult combination of slow growth and persistent inflation. This environment naturally casts a spotlight on assets that can offer protection from these pressures,” the analyst opined.

Seasonal factors may limit near-term gains, QCP Capital warned. The trading firm cited historically muted summer volumes and a rising put-to-call premium in bitcoin options that signals cautious positioning. It also flagged month-end rebalancing and systematic deleveraging as additional headwinds for crypto prices.

Source: theblock

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Adam

Stocks

Middle East Situation

European and Asian markets slipped on Thursday, with sentiment clearly rattled by growing fears that the United States may be drawn more directly into the Israel–Iran conflict. The unease was compounded by fresh remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who yesterday warned of inflationary pressures ahead — a message that did little to reassure already jittery investors or appease Trump demanding lower rates.

Meanwhile, the US equity futures pointed lower, though cash trading in stocks and Treasuries are shut for the Juneteenth holiday. The dollar, meanwhile, firmed against a basket of major currencies, benefitting from its safe-haven appeal, and oil prices remaining on the front foot. Brent crude saw a sharp rebound from Wednesday’s lows, rising as much as 4% at its peak early on, briefly nudging the $77 per barrel mark. The jump reflects heightened focus on instability in the Middle East, with traders weighing the potential for broader supply disruptions.

Before discussing the macro factors at play, let’s quickly turn our focus on the charts and highlight a few technical developments first.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis and Trade Ideas

The S&P 500 futures chart has almost turned flat on the week after Monday’s gains evaporated amid the Middle East tensions. The Index was hold above key support in the 6,000 region at the time of writing, which needs to hold on a closing basis to keep the bullish hopes alive. This is also where a short-term bullish trend line comes into play, below which is the 21-day exponential average. So, a small intraday dip below the 6K mark wouldn’t completely end the bullish bias, so long as this level holds on a closing basis.

In the event we see a decisive break below the 6,000 support level, then that could potentially pave the way for some technical selling towards last week’s low of 5927, where some stops would undoubtedly be resting now. Below that, you have 5,900 as the next potential support, and then the convergence of the old resistance and 200-day average comes in around the 5837-45 area.

On the upside, 6045 is the first key level of resistance to watch. Above it, Monday’s high at 6109 will come into focus next.

Markets weigh risks as geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns resurface

According to Bloomberg, senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, with some pointing to potential plans for a weekend strike. However, the situation is evolving and could change. The report kept oil prices on the front foot, which pressured US index futures.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices fell from their earlier highs after Trump suggested the US was not getting involved for now, but the downside was limited as he said that could change. Despite a huge draw in crude inventories - not that this was going to move the market given the focus on the Middle East, oil prices initially fell as Trump kept markets guessing about US military involvement in Iran. The US president said: "I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do."

Meanwhile, the bombardment from both sides continues. This suggests that the conflict is far from over. But for now, at least, the US is not getting involved, if one can believe Trump. However, the Bloomberg article has once again raised fears of the US getting involved, which could make the situation worse.

source : investing

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Adam

Commodity

WTI/CL Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, in a day that is a holiday in the United States. Juneteenth is going to keep the markets closed during normal hours. So, we do have a little bit of a liquidity issue. And of course, the markets are closed at noon in America. So, there’s a period of time when the markets won’t be moving at all.

That being said, oil is moving quite a bit on the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East, so that is something worth paying attention to. As the war in the Middle East continues there are concerns about disruption of supply. Because of this, I think you still have a buy-on-the-dip mentality in this contract, as well as pretty much any other grade of crude oil. The 200-day EMA sits at the $68.51 level and is rising offering a bit of a floor.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent markets pulled back just a bit, only to turn around and show signs of life again, with the $75.50 level offering a little bit of a floor. At this point, if we can rally from here, the $78.45 level has been a bit of a barrier, but breaking above there opens up a move all the way to the $82 level. Again, I have no interest in shorting oil, I think as long as there’s tension in the Middle East, oil will continue to climb and quite frankly, it had been forming a basing pattern for what seemed like a lifetime before it. So this all ties together quite nicely for oil markets eventually going higher or at the very least not falling very significantly.

Source: fxempire

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Key points:

Bitcoin lacks volatility catalysts thanks to a US public holiday and a Federal Reserve “nothingburger,” crypto market participants say.

US trade war deadlines begin to take center stage for risk assets.

BTC price action is still expected to exit its narrow range this month.

Bitcoin turned sluggish on June 19 as analysis picked out key crypto volatility dates. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_1

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

July, August bring new crypto downside risks

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD acting in a narrow range while failing to secure $105,000 as support.

A combination of geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with stagnant Federal Reserve policy, as well as the US Juneteenth holiday keeping stock markets closed, contributed to sideways BTC price action.

On the topic of the Fed, which opted to hold interest rates steady at its June 18 meeting, trading firm QCP Capital underscored officials’ unwillingness to move quickly.

“Officials reiterated their preference for a ‘wait and see’ approach, pending greater clarity on inflation’s trajectory,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets still favoring a rate cut in September. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_2

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_2

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

QCP instead focused on future deadlines in the ongoing US trade war as the likely source of crypto and risk-asset volatility.

“Negotiations remain stagnant, and leaks have become repetitive. Markets may now be less reactive to incremental tariff headlines,” it argued.

Key dates include July 14, when the EU is due to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Aug. 12, when the tariff pause on China expires.

“These upcoming dates could inject episodic downside volatility into risk assets,” QCP added, noting that a “stable outcome” in China’s case was still more likely.

Bitcoin shrugs off FOMC “nothingburger”

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin traders continued to wait for a volatility catalyst to shake up the range.

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades saw good odds of this occurring in the second half of June, or even this week.

“Still hanging around the $105K area which is the middle of the monthly range and right at the monthly open,” he told X followers in part of his latest analysis.

“Price has been compressing and it's clear that the market is waiting for a big move to occur. The statistics still heavily favor a further displacement this week and especially this month.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Daan Crpyto Trades/X

Fellow trader Skew joined those seeing a potential trip to take bid liquidity at around $103,000.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile, described the Fed event as a “nothingburger.”

“I suppose we'll see a test of $106K and breakout north in the coming days,” he predicted on the day. Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_4

Here's When Bitcoin Analysts Expect New BTC Price Volatility_4

BTC/USD 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Source: Cointelegraph

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Adam

Commodity

Crude oil futures rose more than 1% on Thursday, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israel’s military to intensify attacks against Iran.

U.S. crude oil was last up $1.36, or 1.81%, to $76.50 per barrel by 9:38 a.m. ET, while global benchmark Brent

added $1.10, or 1.43%, to $77.80 per barrel. Prices have gained more than 11% over the seven days since Israel began pounding Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

Netanyahu ordered Israel’s military to intensify attacks on “strategic targets” in Iran and “government targets” in the country’s capital, Tehran, Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a social media post. The goal of the strikes is to “undermine the ayatollah’s regime,” Katz said.

Israel’s decision to escalate its military operation against the Islamic Republic comes after an Iranian missile reportedly struck a major hospital in the southern city of Beersheba. Katz threatened Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the wake of the hospital strike.

Katz said Israel’s military “has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist,” referring to Khamenei.

President Donald Trump is still considering whether to order a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear program. “I may do it, I may not do it, I mean nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters Wednesday.

JPMorgan warned on Wednesday that regime change in a major oil producing country like Iran could have a profound impact on global oil prices. Iran is one of the top producers in OPEC.

“If history serves as a guide, further destabilization of Iran could lead to significantly higher oil prices sustained over extended periods,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients in a note.

Supply losses in the wake of a regime change “are challenging to recover quickly, further supporting elevated prices,” Kaneva said.

Source: cnbc

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Iran is maintaining crude oil supply by loading tankers one at a time and moving floating oil storage much closer to China, two vessel tracking firms told Reuters, as the country seeks to keep a key source of revenue while under attack from Israel.

The conflict between Iran and Israel which broke out last week poses a fresh hurdle for Iran, which uses a shadow fleet of tankers to conceal their origin and skirt U.S. sanctions reinstated in 2018 over its nuclear programme.

Crude exports from Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, mainly head to China. Loadings have so far been largely unaffected by the conflict with Israel, the trackers said.

Iran has loaded 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil so far this week, marking a five-week high, the latest data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

Energy infrastructure in both countries has been targeted in missile exchanges between the two countries, including the Haifa oil refinery in Israel and Iran's South Pars gas field, though Iran's major crude exporting facility at Kharg island has so far been spared.

All of the loadings from Kharg Island this week took place from the site's eastern jetty, said Homayoun Falakshai, head of crude oil analysis at tracking firm Kpler.

Kharg Island is situated deep inside the Persian Gulf, some 30 km off the Middle Eastern nation's south west coast.

"NIOC may believe it is less risky than the other main jetty located on the western side, in open waters," Falakshai said, referring to Iran's state oil firm National Iranian Oil Co.

Large oil tankers are now approaching Kharg Island one at a time, leaving the second jetty on the western side of the island unused for several days, with 15-16 more Iranian tankers scattered across the wider Persian Gulf area.

Iranian oil exports have been steady so far this year at around 1.7 million bpd, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, despite U.S. sanctions on Chinese customers since March.

Iran has moved part of its 40 million barrel floating storage fleet, which sits on 36 different vessels, much closer to China to minimise the impact of any disrupions on buyers, ship tracking firm Vortexa told Reuters.

Supplier. From 2026, the EU would ban imports under any new Russian gas and liquefied natural gas deals signed before the end

Around ten tankers, carrying approximately 8 million barrels of Iranian crude, are now stationed directly offshore China, Vortexa said, moving from the Singapore area where a further 20 million barrels are located.

The remaining 12 or so million barrels were in the Persian Gulf at the start of the month, Vortexa added, but their current location was not clear.

Having floating storage allows tankers to load crude oil without an immediate fixed destination to head to.

"Iran has been moving these barrels eastwards even without firm orders to strategically place the barrels closer to the end buyers in a time of heightened geopolitical risk," Vortexa's senior China market analyst Emma Li said

Moving barrels closer to China would offset the impact of up to two weeks of disrupted Iranian loadings, Vortexa added.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

Microsoft is reportedly ready to abandon ongoing negotiations with OpenAI regarding the future of their strategic partnership, according to the Financial Times, citing sources close to the matter. The talks, considered crucial for both companies, are stalling over the size of Microsoft's future stake in the ChatGPT creator.

The US tech giant is reportedly considering suspending talks if no compromise is reached on the contentious issues, while continuing to rely on its current commercial agreement with OpenAI, which guarantees access to its technologies until 2030.

This news comes as, according to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI executives recently considered accusing Microsoft of anti-competitive practices in their partnership. Both companies are also discussing a revision of the terms of Microsoft's initial investment, including its right to a share of future profits and the evolution of its stake in the company.

In a joint statement following these revelations, both companies sought to reassure the public: "Discussions are ongoing, and we remain optimistic about our ability to build together over the long term."

For Microsoft, the billions invested in OpenAI have played a key role in its rise in the field of artificial intelligence, against competitors such as Alphabet and Meta. However, the current impasse highlights the growing complexity of their relationship.

OpenAI, meanwhile, needs Microsoft's approval to complete its transformation into a non-profit public interest corporation, a status it believes will be more favorable for attracting new investors.