Bitcoin Nears $75K Bottom, Experts Eye 40% Rally

Summary:

Bitcoin recently approached a $75K support level amid technical analyses indicating a potential local bottom, while experts predict a 40% rally before the end of 2025.

The event signals significant market interest in Bitcoin's trajectory, highlighting potential bullish momentum and affecting broader cryptocurrencies amid macroeconomic shifts.

The price of Bitcoin has recently tested support levels near $75,000, with analysts noting potential for a 40% rally before 2025 ends. This prediction stems from key technical indicators and macroeconomic factors driving sentiment.

Figures such as Arthur Hayes and Michael Saylor are historically monitored for insights, but no direct quotes were found in recent analyses. Institutional players remain pivotal during periods of macroeconomic volatility involving substantial liquidity shifts. As one Market Analyst Commentary explains, "The historical pattern of death cross events suggests that each prior cross since 2023 coincided with local bottoms, implying a similar outcome could follow for Bitcoin around $75K."

Bitcoin's price drop related to a 75bp Fed rate hike highlights the vulnerability of cryptocurrencies to monetary policy changes. The impact extends to adjacent crypto markets, catalyzing a broader industry recalibration often seen in past downturns.

This recalibration has seen Bitcoin reach a historically oversold RSI of 27, setting the stage for potential gains. A death cross event in 2025 echoed patterns seen in previous corrections, leading to confidence in upcoming recovery prospects.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Daniel Carter

Political

Turkey will host next year's UN climate summit while Australia will lead the conference's negotiations among governments, under a compromise deal taking shape in talks in Brazil, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Thursday.

The annual COP conferences are the world's main forum for driving climate action. The compromise would resolve a stand-off between Australia and Turkey over who would stage COP31. Both bid in 2022 to host it and refused to stand down.

The two sides were now close to a deal that would see Turkey hosting COP31 as summit president, with a pre-COP event staged in the Pacific and Australia as president of negotiations, Albanese said.

"What we've come up with is a big win for both Australia and Turkey," he told Australian Broadcasting Corp Radio.

The two nations now have just a year to prepare for an event that attracts tens of thousands of people and requires months of diplomatic legwork to reach consensus around climate goals.

"There's a little way to go in these discussions," Australia's Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told reporters at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, adding that the compromise would achieve Australia's aims.

"It would be great if Australia could have it all. But we can't have it all," he said. "It was important to strike an agreement."

The Turkish government did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

SPOTLIGHT ON PACIFIC CONCERNS

Australia has pitched its bid as a "Pacific COP", done in partnership with low-lying island nations and emphasising their exposure to climate change and rising sea levels.

It says it has already spent A$7 million ($4.5 million) on preparing to host, reflecting confidence that backing from a large number of countries would enable it to fend off Turkey's bid.

Turkey has said that as an emerging economy it would promote solidarity between rich and poor countries at its summit, which would have a more global rather than regional focus.

Earlier this week, Albanese rejected prospects of co-hosting the event, citing United Nations rules. Turkey had urged such a joint model and said the sides had discussed potential frameworks in September.

A source familiar with the discussions said there was some confusion about the arrangement on running the negotiations and whether the sharing of responsibilities was permissible under UN rules that envisage one country leading. The person declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

Source: Reuters

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Central Bank

Yet Bessent keeps saying he doesn't want the job, Trump added, in comments to the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum.

"We're thinking about him for the Fed, but he wants no part of it, he likes being secretary of the Treasury," Trump said. "I think we'll leave him — so let's cross your name off right, officially, right?"

Trump has been sharply critical of the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. Trump's pick as a replacement will almost certainly push for rapid interest rate cuts and likely institute wide-ranging changes in how the Fed operates. Bessent earlier this year published extensive criticisms of the Fed's groundbreaking efforts to shore up financial markets and the economy after the 2008-2009 Great Recession and during the pandemic.

Bessent is heading up the Trump administration's search for a new Fed chair. Yet despite his protestations, he is also widely seen as a leading potential replacement for Powell.

"He's a top-tier candidate right now," Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser to Trump in his first term, said. Trump "wants to shake things up, so I think he wants an outsider."

Two of the five candidates Bessent has named are current Fed officials: Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. The other three would fit the outsider criteria: Kevin Hassett, currently a top White House economic official; Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who has been highly critical of the Fed; and Rick Rieder, a senior managing director at asset manager BlackRock.

Late Tuesday, in an interview on Fox News with Bret Baier, Bessent said the administration is continuing to interview potential nominees for Fed chair. By mid-December, "the president will meet the final three candidates and hopefully have an answer before Christmas," Bessent said.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

For the second time in two days, President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he would like to appoint Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to chair the Federal Reserve.

Yet Bessent keeps saying he doesn't want the job, Trump added, in comments to the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum.

“We’re thinking about him for the Fed, but he wants no part of it, he likes being secretary of the Treasury,” Trump said. “I think we’ll leave him — so let’s cross your name off right, officially, right?”

Bessent is heading up the Trump administration's search for a new Fed chair. Yet despite his protestations, he is also widely seen as a leading potential replacement for Powell.

“He's a top-tier candidate right now,” Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser to Trump in his first term, said. Trump "wants to shake things up, so I think he wants an outsider.”

Late Tuesday, in an interview on Fox News with Bret Baier, Bessent said the administration is continuing to interview potential nominees for Fed chair. By mid-December, “the president will meet the final three candidates and hopefully have an answer before Christmas,” Bessent said.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

A majority of Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support in late October for further interest rate cuts, though not all committed to making the reduction at their next meeting in December, according to minutes released Wednesday.

At the same time, many officials said “it would likely be appropriate” to keep rates “unchanged for the rest of the year," a sign of strong divisions among policymakers about the central bank's next steps.

Rate cuts by the Fed, over time, typically lower borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.

Fed officials are deeply split over the biggest threat to the economy: weak hiring or stubbornly-elevated inflation. If a sluggish job market is the biggest threat, then the Fed would typically cut rates more. But it combats inflation by keeping rates elevated, or even raising them.

Chair Jerome Powell had telegraphed the deep divisions among the Fed's 19-member interest-rate setting committee at a news conference following the Oct. 28-29 meeting. The minutes were released after the customary three-week delay.

“Participants expressed strongly differing views” about whether the Fed should cut at its December 9-10 meeting, the minutes said.

The central bank decided to cut its key rate to about 3.9% at the late October meeting, down from 4.1% and the second cut this year. In September, the Fed projected it would reduce rates three times this year, in September, October, and December.

Yet in the past two weeks numerous Fed speakers have raised concerns about inflation, which came in at 3% in September and has been above the Fed's 2% target for nearly five years. That has led Wall Street investors to mark down their expectations of another reduction next month. The odds of a cut have fallen from nearly 95% a month ago to 50-50 on Wednesday, based on futures pricing, according to CME Fedwatch.

Another wrinkle for the Fed is that jobs data for October and November won’t be released until Dec. 16, a week after the next meeting, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. Fed officials will see the jobs report for September, which will be published Thursday.

Michael Gapen, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said the lack of fresh jobs data reduces the chances of a rate cut in December. Weak hiring data would likely encourage more Fed policymakers to support a rate cut, while the absence of data could embolden those officials who support standing pat.

Source: AP

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Manuel

Bond

Bond traders all but scrapped their bets on a December interest-rate cut after the government canceled the publication of the October employment report, leaving Federal Reserve officials without a key piece of economic data before their final meeting of the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that some October jobs data would be rolled into a report to be published after the Fed’s December decision. The announcement prompted traders to scale back expectations for a quarter-point reduction, with odds now heavily pointing to policymakers keeping the benchmark rate on hold at the 3.75% to 4% range.

“This lowers the chances of a December rate cut,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Michael Gapen wrote in a note. “An easing labor market is the key argument for a December rate cut.”

Market sentiment had already been shifting toward a greater likelihood of no action at the Dec. 10 meeting, as several Fed officials have urged caution about reducing borrowing costs while inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The updated BLS schedule leaves policymakers — and traders — lacking new evidence of labor market weakness, their justification for rate cuts in September and October.

The announcement sparked a wave of selling in fed funds futures. Swap contracts linked to the Fed policy rate implied an about 30% chance of a cut in December. Before Wednesday, the odds were roughly 50-50. For next year’s first meeting in January, about 21 basis points of easing remained priced in. Bond Market Wagers on Fed Rate Cut Crumble on Jobs Data Void_1

Bond Market Wagers on Fed Rate Cut Crumble on Jobs Data Void_1

Reinforcing the trend, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Oct. 28-29 meeting released Wednesday showed that “many” Fed officials said it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2025.

US Treasury yields edged higher, with rates on two-year notes — which closely reflect changes in monetary-policy expectations — rising about two basis points to 3.59%.

In a statement, the BLS said the federal government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 inhibited collection of the part of the October jobs report that includes the unemployment rate. Other October employment data will be published Dec. 16 with the November report, originally slated for Dec. 5.

“We already knew that there wouldn’t be an October unemployment rate but the news that the November data will not get published until after the Fed meeting should be a disappointment for the market,” said Leah Traub, a portfolio manager at Lord Abbett & Co. “This reduces the probability of a cut given the divided FOMC.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Economic

"Employment Situation" jobs report for October, the agency said on Wednesday, citing its inability to adequately collect data during the government shutdown.

The BLS also announced that the November jobs report, originally scheduled for release on Dec. 5, will now be published on Dec. 16 and will contain what October data the agency was able to collect. The September jobs report, which was also delayed due to the shutdown, is scheduled for release on Thursday.

"Household survey data from the Current Population Survey could not be collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations," the BLS said, noting that the household data is "not able to be retroactively collected."

The monthly "Employment Situation" jobs reports are crucial and widely watched data releases that give the market an overview of the health of the labor market throughout the US. The Federal Reserve also leans on the jobs report for key input on its interest rate policy decisions.

Traders are currently predicting a 68.4% chance that the Fed holds the target rate steady, with no cut, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in December.

However, "the jobs data could skew this pricing if it confirms a further softening of the labour market, which would play into the narrative of a weakening US economy, a key theme that has emerged in recent days and is driving some of the weakness in equities," Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn said.

Fed governor Christopher Waller, seen as a frontrunner to be the next Fed chair, and Fed governor Stephen Miran have both called for rate cuts at the Dec. 9-10 meeting.

When September numbers are announced on Thursday, Wall Street economists are expecting to see 50,000 job gains, according to Bloomberg data.

Thursday's release will be the first jobs report since the August numbers, which were published before the shutdown began. The August jobs report showed the unemployment rate at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimated that the unemployment rate inched up slightly to 4.35% in September.

Private payroll numbers from data provider ADP showed private-sector payrolls increased 42,000 in October after declining in the prior two months.