Bitcoin 'Hot Supply' Nears $40B as New Investors Flood In at $95K

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin is enjoying a "surge in capital turnover" as speculators begin to take an interest in the market thanks to multimonth BTC price highs, new analysis says.

Key points:

Bitcoin’s most recently-moved supply segment is increasing as higher prices see an influx of “speculative capital.”

“Hot supply” has doubled in just five weeks versus local lows in March.

Active address numbers have yet to mimic a classic bull market comeback.

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are back in the game as a “speculative capital” enters the market.

In an X thread on April 29, onchain analytics firm Glassnode reported a surge in Bitcoin’s so-called “hot capital.”

Bitcoin sees “surge in capital turnover”

New investors are entering the market as BTC price action circles its highest levels in several months.

Glassnode reveals that the sum of coins which last moved up to a week ago has reached its largest figure since early February.

“This metric captures short-term holder activity and is a proxy for speculative capital entering the market,” it explains.

In the past week alone, hot capital has shot up by over 90% to near $40 billion. Since local lows in late March, hot capital has increased by $21.5 billion, a “surge in capital turnover” which underscores a sea change in market sentiment.

“BTC hot capital bottomed at $17.5B on 23 Mar - its lowest level since Dec,” Glassnode summarizes.

“In just 5 weeks, it has added over $21.5B, suggesting a rapid shift from dormancy to speculation among newer market entrants.”

Bitcoin “hot supply” data. Source: Glassnode/X

BTC bull market comeback in progress

As Cointelegraph continues to report, STH investors have recently returned to aggregate profit as price hovers near $95,000.

Analyzing overall network participation, however, Glassnode suggested that a full bull market comeback has not yet taken place.

“Signs of early FOMO are emerging, with the Hot Capital Share ticking higher and profitability metrics like Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53) expanding notably,” it wrote in an introduction to its latest “Market Pulse” analysis piece released on April 28.

“However, while on-chain activity such as transfer volume and fees are recovering, daily active addresses remain suppressed, suggesting that full organic network engagement is still rebuilding.”

Bitcoin active addresses (7-day simple moving average). Source: Glassnode

Earlier this week, other sources reported on the potential dangers of “FOMO” when it comes to an enduring BTC price recovery.

Source: Cointelegraph

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Fiona Harper

Cryptocurrency

What to Know:

● Trump Tower Dubai now accepts crypto for real estate purchases.

● Eric Trump confirmed the initiative in partnership with Dar Global.

● Move aims to leverage crypto's potential in Dubai's luxury market.

Trump Tower Dubai to Accept Cryptocurrency Payments

Eric Trump declared that Trump Tower Dubai would now accept cryptocurrency payments for property purchases, taking a substantial step in luxury real estate finance.

This adoption of digital currency highlights an evolving trend in global real estate finance, potentially influencing further integration of cryptocurrencies.

Trump Tower Dubai Partners with Dar Global

The Trump Organisation, in collaboration with Dar Global, introduced cryptocurrency payments for Trump Tower Dubai properties. This initiative is part of their ongoing expansion into the digital finance sector.

Eric Trump, Executive Vice President, Trump Organisation, stated: "Dubai’s real estate market is going to continue to absolutely boom and we’re going to set the kind of new standard in terms of price per square foot and luxury in the market" - source. The partnership sees a $1 billion development on Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai, signaling a new standard in leveraging digital assets for luxury real estate.

Crypto Payments Expected to Attract Global Wealth

Dubai's acceptance of cryptocurrency in luxury real estate is set to attract global wealth, potentially bolstering the market's growth. High-net-worth individuals could view this as an innovative financial opportunity.

The implementation highlights Dubai's role as a crypto-friendly destination, paving the way for broader adoption in real estate markets elsewhere. Authorities and market observers are watching for changes in investment patterns.

Stablecoins Could Minimize Real Estate Investment Risks

The crypto acceptance in Dubai's real estate echoes past integrations, yet mainstream adoption remains rare. Early adopters often see short-term spikes in usage but long-term growth is gradual.

Experts anticipate that such practices could prompt industry-wide changes as stablecoins continue stabilizing transactions, potentially minimizing risk for large-scale investments.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Short-Term Profit Strategy Overrides Long-Term Trade War Concerns

Chinese refineries are strategically ignoring the broader economic uncertainties stemming from the U.S.-China trade war to seize short-term gains from falling crude oil prices. According to Kpler, a leading tanker tracking firm, China’s crude imports surged in March 2025 to an average of 11 million barrels per day, marking an 18-month high and sharply rising from 8.9 million barrels per day in January. This upward momentum has continued into April, highlighting China's aggressive approach to stockpiling inexpensive oil.

Shifts In Sourcing Strategy Amid Global Price Volatility

Initially, China's increased imports centered on Iranian oil amid concerns over tighter U.S. sanctions. However, following President Donald Trump's tariff threats and rising production from OPEC members, global oil prices plunged to a four-year low. Chinese refiners rapidly shifted tactics, broadening their purchasing efforts to secure a wider range of discounted crude.

The relationship between the escalation of tariffs and China's accelerated crude accumulation is primarily correlative. Tariff risks contribute to broader market volatility, which in turn depresses oil prices, presenting Chinese refiners with an attractive buying window.

Market Projections And Analyst Insights

While Brent crude prices later rebounded to over $65 per barrel by the end of last week, Morgan Stanley warned that persistent downward pressures could pull prices to an average of $62.5 per barrel in the second half of the year.

Giovanni Staunovo, an oil analyst at UBS, emphasized China's extreme sensitivity to price fluctuations, predicting that import volumes in April would likely surpass March's figures. Johannes Rauball from Kpler further noted that China's strategic reserves remain relatively low, suggesting strong import demand will persist regardless of domestic consumption trends.

Operational Adjustments At Chinese Refineries

Despite predictions that a slowing Chinese economy would weaken oil demand in the latter half of the year, current fuel consumption for transportation and aviation remains robust. Emma Li, an analyst specializing in energy markets, revealed that several Chinese refineries have postponed scheduled maintenance to sustain fuel production while profit margins remain attractive due to low feedstock costs.

Official data shows that Chinese refineries processed 14.85 million barrels per day in March 2025, a 0.4% year-on-year increase. Notably, during the first two months of the year, refinery output exceeded the combined total of domestic production and imports by about 30,000 barrels per day, indicating the first drawdown of strategic reserves in 18 months.

Geopolitical Constraints On Iranian Oil Purchases

Although China remains the world’s largest crude importer and a major buyer of oil from sanctioned markets such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, tensions have recently impacted Iranian supply routes. After U.S. sanctions targeted a Shandong-based refinery for purchasing Iranian oil, Chinese importers scaled back Iranian crude purchases from a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March to 1.2 million barrels per day in April.

Rauball explained that logistical challenges and caution among independent Chinese refiners have contributed to an increase in crude stocks stranded at sea. Kpler data reveals that approximately 40 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently sitting on 36 vessels, with concentrations near Singapore, the Yellow Sea, and the South China Sea.

Private Refiners' Resilience Amid Sanctions

Despite these hurdles, Chinese private refiners are unlikely to fully retreat from Iranian crude. With razor-thin profit margins, discounted Iranian oil remains essential for their survival. Rauball pointed out that many private refiners operate outside the reach of the U.S. financial system, rendering American sanctions less effective.

In this case, the connection between oil supply chains and financial system autonomy becomes evident. While regulatory risks increase, the strategic importance of low-cost Iranian oil in maintaining refinery profitability leads private players to sustain their engagement, even under external pressure.

Source: Kpler

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Damon

Economic

Trump's multi-front trade war and constant flip-flops on tariffs have upended supply chains, clouded business outlooks and stoked fears of a recession in the U.S. The S&P 500 has lost nearly 8% since his January 20 inauguration.

As Trump completes 100 days in office, here is a look at the winners and losers in the U.S. stock markets:

WINNERS

Data analytics provider Palantir, which works with the Department of Homeland Security, has surged nearly 60% since Trump came into power as the Department of Defense prioritizes a new software acquisition effort to enhance the U.S. military.

Palantir is also partnering with Elon Musk's SpaceX and drone builder Anduril to build key parts of Golden Dome missile defense shield, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. All three companies are founded by entrepreneurs who have been major political supporters of Trump.

Palantir is the top performer on the S&P 500 in Trump's first 100 days as president.

Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said Trump-linked stocks and companies with "a predominantly domestic bias, especially in the manufacturing sector" stand to do quite well under the current administration.

Conservative cable news channel Newsmax, which attracted strong interest from retail investors after its debut on the NYSE on March 31, have advanced more than 60% since the IPO.

Gold miners are also in a bright spot, tracking a surge in the bullion, driven by U.S. policy uncertainty and fears of recession. The world's biggest gold miner Newmont's near 30% surge since January 20 makes its shares among the highest on the S&P 500.

U.S.-listed shares of foreign gold miners like Barrick Gold, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti have also rallied between 20% and 50% since Trump took office.

LOSERS

Shares of U.S. carriers have been battered by Trump's tariffs and softening travel demand, with the S&P 1500 airlines index losing nearly a third of its value since January 20.

Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines are among a host of carriers that have withdrawn their annual outlooks. Aviation industry is lobbying the White House for exemptions.

Electric automaker Tesla has dropped 33% since Trump's return to power as investors feared that CEO Elon Musk's involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency could distract his focus from the electric vehicle maker, whose sales continued to fall.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes traded mixed Tuesday, as Wall Street reacted to a number of key economic reports. In stocks, Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) declined, while Spotify (SPOT) plunged on earnings.

After the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite lost 0.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.22% early Tuesday. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, as West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $60.90 per barrel.

Among exchange traded funds, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fell 0.4%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved down 0.3% after the open.

Tesla stock declined 1.4% in early action Tuesday, looking to extend a win streak to six sessions. Shares bullishly climbed above their 50-day moving average line Friday, and are now testing their 200-day line, the next resistance level to watch. Led by Elon Musk, the electric-vehicle maker remains nearly 42% off its record high of 488.54, reached on Dec. 18.

Nvidia stock lost 0.3% in morning action Tuesday. Shares of the artificial intelligence giant snapped a four-day win streak Monday, finding resistance around their 10-week line, an important area to watch.

Finally, Spotify stock plunged nearly 7% after the music streaming giant reported more subscribers than expected in the first quarter but badly missed on earnings and revenue in the period. Shares threatened to trigger the 7% loss rule from a 621.20 buy point.

Stock Market Today: Economic Data, Earnings Movers

On the economic front Tuesday are a pair of housing reports: the Case-Shiller index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, or FHFA home price index. Also on the agenda are new consumer confidence numbers and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report.

February's Case-Shiller index rose 0.4% on the month, meeting estimates, with an annual increase of 4.5%, just below the 4.7% Econoday estimate. The FHFA home price index rose just 0.1% in February, below the 0.3% expected rise.

The Conference Board's confidence report, on tap for 10 a.m. ET, is expected to fall to 87.5 in April from 92.9 in March. Finally, the JOLTS report is expected to show job openings down at 7.464 million in March after declining to 7.568 million in February amid rising business uncertainty. That report is also due at 10 a.m.

In stocks, AstraZeneca (AZN), Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM), Honeywell (HON), PayPal (PYPL) and Pfizer (PFE) were key earnings movers Tuesday.

Shares of AstraZeneca added 0.3% in morning trading, while Coca-Cola stock declined 1%. General Motors stock skidded nearly 3%, while Honeywell shares surged more than 4%. PayPal stock climbed 1.3%, as Pfizer shares lost 0.5% in early morning action.

Elsewhere, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soared nearly 28% after the company reached a deal with Novo Nordisk (NVO) to sell its Wegovy drug in the U.S.

Dow Jones Extends Rally

On Monday, blue chips on the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved up 0.3%, or 114 points, while the S&P 500 edged higher and the Nasdaq lost 0.1% to snap a four-day win streak.

Due to current market volatility, now is an important time to read IBD's The Big Picture column for how to handle the current market and to track the updated exposure level.

Among the best companies to watch in the current stock market are CrowdStrike (CRWD), MercadoLibre (MELI), Penumbra (PEN) and Guidewire (GWRE).

Along with Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia, Dow Jones components making notable moves this week were Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Boeing (BA).

Check out IBD MarketSurge's "Breaking Out Today" list for top growth stocks that are moving above correct buy points. Investor also can find potential breakouts on the "Near Pivot" list. To find additional stock ideas, check IBD Stock Lists like IBD 50, Big Cap 20 and Stocks Near A Buy Zone.

Dow Jones Stocks: Boeing Nears Buy Point

Shares of Dow Jones component Boeing gained 0.8% Tuesday after approaching a double-bottom entry at 184.40 Monday, according to MarketSurge chart analysis.

Outside the Dow, cybersecurity leader and new IBD Leaderboard stock CrowdStrike is adding to breakout gains past a 400.02 buy point in a cup with handle, according to IBD MarketSurge chart analysis. Shares rose 0.4% Tuesday morning.

E-commerce giant MercadoLibre is just above a 2,202 buy point in a double bottom, according to IBD MarketSurge. MercadoLibre stock added 0.5% Tuesday.

Penumbra also broke out last week, topping a 288.57 double-bottom entry. Its relative strength line is at new highs, triggering the blue dot on the IBD MarketSurge chart. That's a bullish indicator of market leadership. Shares dropped 0.7% Tuesday.

Finally, Guidewire is rapidly nearing a 201 buy point in a double bottom, finishing Monday just below the buy trigger. Guidewire stock gained 0.9% in early morning trades.

Dow Jones Leaders: Amazon, Apple, Microsoft

Magnificent Seven stocks are rebounding from lows as Wall Street reacts to the fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs. One of them, Dow Jones component Amazon, dropped 2% early Tuesday after the White House called Amazon's plan to post the cost of tariffs a "hostile and political act." First-quarter earnings results are expected out late Thursday.

IPhone maker Apple sank 0.4% Tuesday morning. Shares closed Monday at their highest level since early April. Earnings are due out Thursday after the close.

Finally, software giant Microsoft dipped 0.4% Tuesday. Shares are above their 50-day line for the first time since late January, with the company set to report earnings Wednesday evening.

source : investors

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Donald Trump will unveil plans to water down his sweeping tariffs for US carmakers on Tuesday by curbing some duties on foreign parts, granting a reprieve to an industry that warned his strategy would hike costs for American manufacturers by tens of billions of dollars.

The White House trailed the deal on Monday and while details were scarce, Trump appears to be preparing to reprieve auto giants operating in the US from the his aggressive trade strategy. Officials said he would sign an executive order later on Tuesday.

Trump is “committed to bringing back auto production to the US”, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “so we want to give automakers a path to do that quickly, efficiently and create as many jobs as possible.”

It comes after industry analysis found that the US big three carmakers – Ford, General Motors and Stellantis – could face an increase of more than $42bn in costs as a result of Trump’s 25% tariff on the auto industry, with duties of almost $5,000 for the parts they import to make the average car made in America.

“President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” the commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, claimed in a statement. “This deal is a major victory for the president’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically, while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.”

The move means car companies paying tariffs would not be charged other levies, such as those on steel and aluminium,, according to the Wall Street Journal, which first reported the development.

Carmakers would be able to secure a partial reimbursement for tariffs on imported auto parts, based on the value of their US car production, under the plans. Cars made outside the US will still be subject to Trump’s tariffs but will be exempt from other levies.

Trump is due to travel to Michigan on Tuesday for a rally marking his first 100 days in office. His return to the White House – and hopes to reshape the global economy with steep tariffs – swiftly ushered in a new period of economic volatility for firms in the US and overseas.

After imposing 10% tariffs on imports from much of the world, the Trump administration plans to speak with 17 trading partners “over the next few weeks”, Bessent said, acknowledging that Trump – who has jolted long-standing US relationships with a string of markets – creates “strategic uncertainty” in negotiations.

“As we start moving forward announcing deals, then there will be certainty,” said Bessent. “But certainty is not necessarily a good thing in negotiating.”

After rapidly lifting tariffs on Chinese products to 145%, Trump’s officials maintain that the risks for China are high – while playing down the potential impact in the US, despite widespread concern over potential shortages and price increases.

Bessent, who claimed China could shed 10 million jobs “very quickly” if the tariffs are maintained that their current level, denied the US could face disruption.

”I wouldn’t think that we would have supply chain shocks. I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this,” he said. “I speak to dozens of companies, sometimes daily, but definitely weekly. They know that President Trump is committed to fair trade, and have planned accordingly.”

But with consumers in the firing line, reports that Amazon might start disclosing the cost of tariffs on its platform drew a sharp rebuke from the White House. “This is a hostile and political act by Amazon,” claimed press secretary Karoline Leavitt, following a call with Trump.

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Monetary Policy Adjustment As Japan Faces External Shocks

After three consecutive interest rate hikes since March 2024, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to signal a temporary pause in its monetary normalization during this week’s meeting. This decision emerges as the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump imposes sweeping tariffs, elevating global economic uncertainties. Despite this expected pause, BoJ remains committed to a cautious approach towards future rate increases, contingent on clearer economic indicators.

Economic Survey And Policy Expectations

A survey of 54 economists revealed unanimous expectations that the BoJ, under Governor Kazuo Ueda’s leadership, will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% following its two-day policy meeting concluding on May 1. Analysts are closely monitoring BoJ’s quarterly economic outlook for clues regarding the potential duration of this cautious stance.

The interplay between heightened external risks and BoJ’s decision to maintain rates reflects a directional alignment rather than a direct causative shift. Rising tariff pressures contribute to a more defensive monetary posture but do not, by themselves, dictate a halt in normalization.

Impact Of U.S. Tariffs And Inflation Outlook

Sources familiar with the matter indicated that BoJ officials see no immediate need to alter their gradual rate hike strategy while awaiting more data on the effects of the new tariffs. However, concerns are growing that achieving the stable 2% inflation target could be delayed.

Chief economist Izuru Kato of Totan Research emphasized that BoJ’s normalization process is still in its early stages compared to other central banks. Thus, declaring the end of rate hikes at this point would be premature. Here, the causality is clearer: increased economic fragility from tariffs heightens risks to inflation dynamics, encouraging BoJ to adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than aggressively tightening.

Market Projections And Inflation Forecasts

Previously, BoJ projected that inflation would reach 2% in the latter half of the three-year period ending fiscal 2026. Should the upcoming quarterly report indicate a slowdown in reaching this target, it would be interpreted as a signal that BoJ might extend the period of stable or slow-moving rates.

The divergence in expectations is becoming visible. Market predictions for another rate hike before September 2025 have plummeted to 45%, compared to 89% in the previous survey. This demonstrates a strong correlation between rising uncertainties and shrinking confidence in near-term monetary tightening.

Currency Movements And Their Economic Implications

The Japanese yen’s behavior is another focal point. As of April 28, the yen traded around 143.50 per U.S. dollar, having briefly strengthened below 140 per dollar the week prior, a level not seen since September 2024. The yen’s appreciation, driven largely by broader U.S. dollar weakness, is expected to exert downward pressure on inflation towards the end of the year.

This relationship suggests that a stronger yen, in conjunction with falling oil prices, could ease inflationary pressures domestically, reducing the urgency for BoJ to tighten policy aggressively.

Government Response To Trade Tensions

Recognizing the economic threats posed by higher U.S. tariffs, the Japanese government has announced an emergency economic support package. The measures include increased financial assistance for businesses, a 10-yen per liter subsidy on gasoline and diesel prices, and partial compensation for electricity bills for three months starting July 2025.

Moreover, there are plans to expand access to low-interest loans for small businesses beginning next month. This comprehensive support package aims to mitigate potential damages to critical industries like automotive and steel, sectors deemed essential for Japan’s economic stability. The government’s proactive fiscal stance works in tandem with BoJ’s cautious monetary approach, reflecting a coordinated effort to shield the economy from external shocks.