Bitcoin 2026 outlook: bullish structure or bear market reset?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin enters 2026 with tightening supply, resilient institutional demand, and improving liquidity, but faces risks of ETF outflows and a potential extended correction after a completed multi-year rally.

2025 overview

The end of 2025 was rough. Over $1.2 trillion in crypto market value gone in six weeks. Bitcoin (BTC) gave up more than 30% and slipped below $82,000; a liquidity vacuum. Leverage wiped out, exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows, passive funds pulling capital at once.

But as of now, things feel different. The panic’s faded. What’s left is tighter, more focused. Price is recovering, but slowly. This time around, the engine underneath looks stronger.

Liquidity: everything flows from here

What hit hardest recently wasn’t retail panic, it was mechanical. Business Insider reported $19 billion in liquidations in one day, the biggest in crypto history. Add a wave of institutional de-risking, and the market had no buffer.

Many major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles. Inflation is easing, growth is slowing, and rate cuts are already underway. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform better when liquidity improves and interest rates fall, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC declines.

2026 lands in the typical post-halving expansion zone, historically where momentum builds

Supply: thinning, quietly

Post-halving dynamics from 2024 are fully in play. Miners are getting half the rewards they used to, and many are scaling back or consolidating. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant, exchange reserves are at their lowest since 2018. Coins just aren’t moving like they used to.

A lot of BTC is now effectively out of circulation and locked in long-term wallets, ETFs, corporate treasuries. We can see it in the on-chain data: the active supply is thin, it isn’t a supply shock yet, but it’s close.

Demand: still there, but slower

ETF flows paused last quarter of 2025, but they didn’t collapse. That’s a big change from earlier cycles. Over $50 billion went into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past year, and most of that capital hasn’t left. Allocators are treating BTC like an asset, not a trade.

Then there’s Strategy. Still sitting on 430K+ BTC and recently raised $1.4 billion in cash. As JPMorgan pointed out, if they’re not forced to sell and its market new asset value (mNAV) – a metric assessing crypto treasury companies’ valuation - holds above 1, they become a backstop. Add in the pending MSCI ruling in January (which decides whether crypto-heavy firms get to stay in major indices), and you’ve got real market structure in play.

2026 outlook

The outlook isn’t unanimous, but most serious forecasts now sit in the $120K to $170K range. The outlook is based on ETF flows, constrained supply, and improved liquidity conditions.

Fundstrat is more aggressive, pushing $400K+. JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted gold model suggests $170K is in play if Bitcoin continues to attract capital the way commodities do (especially gold). But few are pricing in euphoria. Most are looking at this as a grind upward.

2026 price target from $60K to nearly $500K, but most cluster between $120K and $170K

Key risks to monitor

ETF outflows could return fast if macro flips again. The Bybit hack reminded everyone the security layer still isn’t foolproof, Decrypt reported $1.4B lost to a hot wallet exploit. And if MSCI excludes firms like Strategy, $2.8B in passive outflows could hit the tape fast.

Technical analysis: bear phase into late 2026?

From the 2022 lows at $16.5K to the 2025 peak at ~$126K, BTC has already a completed five-wave rally under the Elliott Wave theory. If that’s correct, the end of year drop below $108K could’ve been the start of a longer correction.

In Elliott Wave terms, corrections following the five-wave rally usually play out in three stages: a first drop (A), a bounce (B), then a deeper pullback (C). If this pattern realises, Bitcoin could stay under pressure into mid-2026. Key price zones to watch on the way down include $84K, $70K, and $58K - areas where past cycles have found support.

Bitcoin daily price chart

Conclusion: a tighter market, but a split path

Bitcoin heads into 2026 with real structure: liquidity conditions are improving, supply remains limited, and institutional demand hasn’t disappeared. That sets the stage for continued strength, if those drivers hold.

But with the recent breakdown and a possible completed five-wave rally, the case for a longer correction is also on the table. Whether this cycle has one more leg higher or already topped, the next phase will be shaped more by mechanics than momentum.

Source: ig

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Michelle

Stocks

Economic

NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ 100 looks like it is going to be very quiet on Wednesday, which is not a surprise. It is Christmas Eve, and it is a shortened session, and most Americans just really cannot be bothered. There will be, of course, some electronic trading, and in pre-market trading, we have done very little, but it looks more positive than negative if nothing else.

I do think the short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that volume shrinks quite a bit this week and next week, so you could get erratic moves, but at this point, I see no reason to look at this as a market you should be shorting. I am still paying close attention to the 25,000 level for support.

Dow Jones 30 Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 is slightly positive as well, but again, this is a situation where the volume just is not going to be there to get the market overly excited, at least unless, of course, something happens externally.

The 47,750 level continues to be support, and the 49,000 level above continues to be resistance. All things being equal, I am a buyer of dips, and I do think this is a market that, given enough time, will have to challenge 50,000. That is obviously a story for 2026, but I think that is where we are going.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 sits right here at all-time highs or within about 15 points of it as I record the video, and it does look like it wants to break out to the upside. I do think that the S&P 500 will find the $7,000 level before it is all said and done.

Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and there is nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests that we should be thinking about going short. 6,800 continues to be supported, especially with the 50-day EMA reaching that level. Therefore, I am looking for dips and buying the right-hand side of the V in order to continue to take advantage of a longer-term uptrend.

Source: FX Empire

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Adam

Economic

A stronger than expected U.S. growth print reset investor assumptions around momentum, policy, and asset allocation, lifting equities to fresh highs while reinforcing a selective risk on tone across global markets. Third quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace through September, materially above the 3.2% consensus and the fastest rate in 2 years. The composition mattered as much as the headline, with consumer spending accelerating and easing concerns that a cooling labor market would translate into an abrupt pullback in household demand. That reassurance initially created hesitation as markets weighed the implications for interest rates, but the session ultimately resolved higher as investors judged that growth resilience still outweighed policy risks.

U.S. equities reflected that recalibration. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a new record, its first since 12 December, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq composite advanced 0.6%. The market response underscored a belief that the economy remains in a narrow window where growth is firm enough to support earnings without immediately forcing a restrictive policy response. Longer dated Treasury yields were little changed, signaling that bond markets are not yet challenging the idea that inflation is decelerating even as activity accelerates. Expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026 remain embedded, alongside confidence that the Federal Reserve will avoid overtightening into a still expanding economy.

At the same time, the data revived a parallel debate around policy credibility and the dollar. Strong growth paired with easing inflation has historically supported equities, but concerns that aggressive easing could eventually push long term yields higher and undermine the currency have driven defensive hedging. Gold extended its rally above $4,500 per troy ounce before closing just below that level at another record, leaving prices up more than 70% in 2025. The move reflects not near term inflation fear but longer-horizon skepticism about monetary discipline if growth remains strong enough to justify looser financial conditions.

Equity leadership remained concentrated in growth and innovation. Communication services and information technology outperformed, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) rising 3% and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) gaining 2.3% as investors continued to reward companies most leveraged to sustained capital spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. In healthcare, Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE:NVO) U.S. listed shares jumped 7.3% after regulators cleared the company to begin selling an oral version of its Wegovy obesity treatment in January, reinforcing expectations of broader market penetration beyond injectable therapies. Moderna moved in the opposite direction, falling 7.5% after a sharp December rally of more than 30%, a reminder that momentum-driven gains remain vulnerable to profit-taking.

The growth signal also echoed overseas. European equities tracked the positive tone, with the Stoxx Europe 600 reaching a record, while energy markets extended their recovery. Brent crude settled at $62.38 per barrel, its fifth consecutive daily advance from recent lows, supported by firmer demand assumptions tied to global growth rather than supply constraints.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether incoming inflation data and labor market indicators confirm that the economy can sustain above trend growth without reigniting price pressures. The base case remains a continuation of solid consumption and gradual disinflation that supports equities and selective risk-taking. The key risk is that persistent strength forces a reassessment of rate cut expectations, pushing real yields higher and testing the durability of equity valuations, particularly in the most crowded growth segments.

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin frustrated traders on Christmas Eve as rangebound BTC price action contrasted with record highs in gold and silver.

Key points:

Bitcoin plays a “waiting game” as bidders stay focused on precious metals.

A giant options expiry event should set the scene for BTC price upside, analysis says.

Gold coils after hitting $4,500 for the first time in history.

Bitcoin gets $100,000 post-expiry target

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to $87,000 with the Christmas holidays around the corner. Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_1

Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These were tipped to provide volatility of their own — especially with a record options expiry event due Friday.

“Historically, BTC has tended to experience 5 to 7% swings during the Christmas period, a pattern often linked to year-end options expiries rather than fresh fundamental catalysts,” trading company QCP Capital commented in its latest US Color market update.

“This Friday’s record expiry is no exception. Roughly 300k BTC option contracts, equivalent to $23.7bn, alongside 446k IBIT option contracts, are set to expire.”Total BTC options open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

QCP noted that the expiry constituted over half of open interest on major exchange Deribit, with the “max pain” level at $95,000.

“A clearer picture of downside positioning should emerge after Friday’s options expiry, particularly whether the large December 85k Puts are rolled forward, closed out, or replaced further down the curve,” it added.

The expiry had been of interest to market participants for some time. Earlier in the month, executive David Eng described the event as “acting like a lid” on BTC price upside.

“Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, structure changes,” he told X followers, giving $100,000 as an initial target.

“This is a textbook setup: volatility suppressed by design, then released by the calendar.”

Bitcoin plays “waiting game” as stocks, gold rise

On shorter timeframes, patience was running thin.

“Bitcoin currently stalls between $85-90K for multiple weeks. It's a waiting game,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized Tuesday.

Van de Poppe argued that stocks first needed to find a local high before capital could flow back into crypto — a theory also applied to precious metals. Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_3

Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_3

BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

As Cointelegraph reported, gold and silver continued to enjoy price discovery through the week, with XAU/USD reaching $4,500 per ounce for the first time ever.

“The upside in silver, palladium, and platinum is a short squeeze and unsustainable,” market commentator Garrett responded to Cointelegraph coverage on X.

“Once they start to reverse, they are likely to drag gold lower as well. The capital will rotate out of precious metals and into BTC and ETH.”XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

The pound held around a three-month high against a broadly softer dollar and near its firmest in two months against the euro on Wednesday, although trading was thin ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Sterling briefly inched up to as high as $1.35335 in early trading, its highest since mid-September, though was last flat on the day just below that level.The dollar is at similar levels against other European currencies including the euro.

For the pound it was a similar story versus the euro. The common currency nudged down to 87.21 pence, its lowest since mid October, but was last flat on the day just above that.

With the Christmas holiday approaching in Britain, and many market participants already off, trading was thin.

That left sterling still largely shaped by last week's Bank of England meeting.

The BoE cut interest rates after a narrow vote by policymakers but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further.

Should that materialise, that would see the pound remain supported versus other currencies, particularly the dollar, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue easing next year.

Source: Kitco

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Adam

Commodity

Copper extended a powerful December rally that’s carried prices for the industrial metal to unprecedented highs above $12,000 a ton on fears over a tighter global market in 2026.

A series of major mine outages this year have combined with the threat of US import tariffs, leading traders to pour metal into the country to front-run potential levies. As a result, copper has has gained almost 40% this year and is on track for its biggest annual jump since 2009.

On Wednesday, prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.8% to an all-time high of $12,282 a ton. Futures were up 1.1% to $12,195 as of 9:43 a.m. local time.

Copper Poised for Best Year Since 2009 After December Surge_1

“Factors including supply disruptions, global liquidity expectations, and relatively stable macroeconomic growth, have accelerated the year-end surge in copper prices,” said Xiao Jing, chief non-ferrous metals analyst at SDIC Futures Co.

Supply risks, long feared by the market, came to fruition this year. A deadly accident at the world’s second-largest copper mine in Indonesia, an underground flood in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a fatal rock blast at a mine in Chile all crimped global production.

Meanwhile, tariff fears have led traders to ramp up shipments to the US, tightening supplies elsewhere.

At the same time, demand prospects remain robust, with massive quantities of copper required to build out power grids, new energy infrastructure and manufacturing. Investors are also betting copper consumption will surge further to feed the growing power needs of the artificial intelligence industry.

All six base metals on the LME are headed for annual gains in a year that’s seen an array of supply-side pressures. Rallies have sustained even as industrial demand shows signs of wavering.

Aluminum is up nearly 16% in 2025 as slowing production growth in China and soaring energy costs in the rest of the world crimp supplies. Zinc has gained about 4% after key mine outages, while tin jumped 48% after major producer Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining.

Source: Bloomberg

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the unemployment rate likely remained high in December amid sluggish hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended December 20, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 224,000 claims for the latest week. The report was published a day early because of the Christmas Day holiday.

Claims have been volatile in recent weeks amid challenges adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations ahead of the holiday season. The labor market remains locked in what economists and policymakers describe as a "no hire, no fire" mode.

Though the economy remains resilient, with gross domestic product increasing at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, the labor market has almost stalled. Labor demand and supply have been impacted by import tariffs and an immigration crackdown, economists say.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.923 million during the week ending December 13, the claims report showed.

The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for December's unemployment rate.

The elevated continued claims aligned with a survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market deteriorated this month to levels last seen in early 2021. The unemployment rate increased to a four-year high of 4.6% in November, though part of the rise was because of technical factors related to the 43-day government shutdown.

The record-long shutdown prevented data collection for October's unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve this month cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 3.50%-to-3.75% range, but signaled borrowing costs were unlikely to fall in the near term as policymakers await clarity on the direction of the labor market and inflation.