Asia’s year in review: Who had it best — and who had it worst — in 2025

Economic

Summary:

Asia’s 2025 saw stark contrasts: cyber scam victims and disaster-hit communities suffered most, Gen Z protests had mixed results, economies showed resilience, while Chinese soft power emerged strongest through tech, culture, and brands.

What a year this has been. Understandably for many, it could not be over soon enough.

From the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to natural and man-made disasters across Asia. To new leaders breaking glass ceilings and old leaders whisked off to The International Criminal Court, or even sentenced to death in absentia. Missiles fired across borders. Terrorist attacks in South Asia and the Pacific. Enduring corruption challenges and real estate woes. And people scammed and enslaved.

As 2025 comes to a close, we look back and see who had it bad and who had it good.

Worst year: Asia’s cyber scam victims

The year saw a growing tsunami of cybercrime sweeping across the globe, emanating from Southeast Asia. Criminal gangs largely operating out of Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia defrauded billions of dollars from victims worldwide.

The “perpetrators” are also the victims. Hundreds of thousands of individuals enticed with fake employment offers to these nations, many transiting via Thailand, then held against their will, enslaved to work in these scam centers.

The kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing, who was lured by a fraudulent acting gig, then forced to work in one operation in January 2025, brought heightened attention to this growing crisis. Even the Trump administration took notice. “The scam centers are creating a generational wealth transfer from Main Street America into the pockets of Chinese organized crime,” said U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro.

Weak governments and corruption allow these multi-billion-dollar criminal enterprises to function, despite high-profile efforts to free captives and close compounds that have operated with near impunity in Southeast Asia.

Unless stopped, these operations will only grow more sophisticated as they begin to use AI and deepfakes to perpetrate their crimes. Asia’s enslaved cyber scam victims earn the distinction of having the worst year in Asia, with sadly far too little hope for escape and rescue in sight.

Bad year: casualties of earth, wind, water and fire

The death count across large swaths of Asia seemed to accelerate by the year’s end. Throughout all of 2025, too many people fell victim to natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons and floods, seemingly made worse by human corruption or ineptness.

A March 28 earthquake in Myanmar killed more than 3,600, displaced some 200,000 and even brought down a skyscraper under construction across the border in distant Bangkok, killing dozens more. From Sri Lanka to Thailand to Indonesia to Vietnam to Malaysia and the Philippines, floods, mudslides and typhoons combined to impact millions and kill more than 1,600.

Add fire to the mix. The year closed with the horrific Wang Fuk Court apartment complex fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong. Televised scenes of towering infernos were seen worldwide. Inoperable fire alarms and below-grade construction materials reportedly contributed to the heartbreaking tragedy, with at least 160 people dead — making it one of the deadliest fires in the city’s history.

Mixed Year: Gen Z uprisings

Armed with memes, hashtags and reels and some waving the Jolly Roger Flag popularized by the Japanese anime and manga series “One Piece,” Gen Zers hungering for change had a mixed year in 2025.

Many in this cohort of young people born between 1997 and 2012 took to the streets, including in Nepal, Indonesia, Philippines, the Maldives and even in the new ASEAN member state Timor-Leste, to protest corruption, nepotism and economic inequality. The results were decidedly mixed though their frustrations seemed all too common in Asia.

These “digital natives” succeeded in bringing down Nepal’s government. Last year, this generation had played a key role in toppling the government of Bangladesh. In other countries, small concessions were achieved in 2025. Yet, at year-end, the question remains whether Gen Z — the first generation to fully grow up in the internet era — is able to maintain momentum and turn these uprisings into a viable movement for constructive change.

The shared hope remains for a political force that can reform entrenched and corrupt systems, alleviate the youth’s deep frustration with the status quo and bring about more economic opportunities. To quote Monkey D. Luffy from “One Piece,” “If you don’t take risks, you can’t create a future.”

Good Year: Asia’s ‘Bamboo Economic Tactics’

Resilience was in full display across Asia’s slowing but still growing economies at year-end. Leaders across the region adopted flexible strategies — akin to bamboo bending in high winds — to navigate Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Indeed, it proved a good year for “bamboo economic tactics” as the region’s reputation for pragmatism held and countries were able to manage the new global economic reality. This approach led to reduced U.S. tariffs — down from duties proposed initially — and revamped trade configurations and new economic strategies.

One example is the India, Canada and Australia cooperation agreement on technology and innovation, underscoring Asian nations’ own “Art of the Deal.”

Recalibrating economic approach allowed developing Asia to achieve growth hovering around 5% for the year, according to the Asian Development Bank. This also kept Asia on track overall as the world’s fastest-growing region in the world.

Best Year: Chinese Soft Power

If tech and creative content are the new soft power, this past year showed that “Made In China” could be a contender, with Beijing joining the ranks of the United States and Korea as a soft-power giant.

The year began with the January surprise: the launch of DeepSeek’a low-cost AI model in a world once-enamored by ChatGPT and American tech prowess. By year-end, the “ugly-cute” Pop Mart collectible, Labubu, had taken the world by a storm, even appearing in New York City’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Labubu is part of a larger group of characters called “The Monsters,” created by Hong Kong artist and author Kasing Lung.

From BYD electric vehicles to the biggest animated film in the world ever — Ne Zha 2 that reportedly grossed more than $2 billion — to Li-Ning sneakers appearing on NBA courts and Luckin Coffee shops opening at a rapid pace throughout Asia and the United States, Chinese soft power was clearly on the rise in 2025, and so receives the distinction for having the best year in Asia.

Here’s to a better, safer and more peaceful year for all in 2026.

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Economic

The global trading system, which is finishing up one of its most transformational years of the past century, heads into another facing more challenges to stability and growth.

Merchandise trade across the world held up relatively well through 2025, even as US President Donald Trump started erecting a tariff wall around the world’s largest economy. Data cited this week by shipping industry veteran John McCown show global container volumes grew 2.1% in October from a year earlier.

Yet beneath the overall resilience are shifting undercurrents: The US saw a 8% contraction in inbound volumes, while imports into Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and India all showed robust growth.

Why 2026 Is Poised to Be Another Rocky Year for Global Trade_1

“World container supply chains have already begun to adapt and reconfigure trading patterns,” McCown wrote in a research note on Monday. After the US in 2024 saw a 15.2% gain in container imports for the full year, “to say that the annual total for 2025 will be in diametric contrast is an understatement.”

Trump’s trade threats were among the chief reasons for the rewiring of shipments, according to McCown. If 2025 was the year of the tariff, he wrote in a LinkedIn post, then 2026 will be the year of tariff consequences.

Other experts in recent weeks have said they anticipate more trade turmoil in the year ahead, with these four issues among the most widely discussed:

Revisiting USMCA

The US, Canada and Mexico are about to start reviewing the North American free-trade deal that took effect in 2020. The negotiations will take the three nations into “new territory” given the novelty of the provision allowing for an update after just six years, according to comments by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to lawmakers this month.

Greer said the government received more than 1,500 responses during the public comment period ahead of the coming review.

“Many stakeholders expressed support for the USMCA and many explicitly called for the agreement to be extended,” Greer said. “At the same time, virtually all stakeholders also called for some sort of improvement to the agreement.”

But any “improvement” for one of the three members of the trade bloc risks coming at the expense of another. And that sets the stage for a tough round of talks for the largest US trading partners, whose industries are strugging amid American import taxes. Ties are already strained between the US and Canada, after Trump terminated trade talks with the northern neighbor in October — in response to anti-tariff ads featuring Ronald Reagan.

Rough Sailing

For container ships and other workhorses of global trade, the year ahead may bring two shocks that sound like welcome developments but could actually snarl global supply chains in ways seen during the Covid pandemic, according to experts including Lars Jensen, the CEO of the consultancy Vespucci Maritime.

The first change would be a return of the world’s cargo fleet to using the Red Sea, rather than the longer route around southern Africa that vessels have had to resort to for the past two years. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have largely subsided since the Gaza peace plan took effect in October, making the old route more appealing. Carriers including France’s CMA CGM SA and Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S are already sending a small number of ships through.

But a full return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal shortcut between Asia and Europe will “flood the market with a lot more capacity” and create “massive port congestion issues in Europe,” Jensen said during a Flexport webinar in November.

The second blow could be more demand driven, according to Jensen. If the US economy accelerates as quickly in 2026 as Trump administration officials predict — fueled by an investment boom and lower interest rates — the resulting inventory restocking could swamp the shipping industry’s ability to cope.

Shaky Deals

High on the White House’s list of 2025 accomplishments are trade deals with several major economies, most of which bent to Trump’s demands ranging from investment pledges to better market access for US exports. In exchange for their submissiveness, their goods were smacked with a tariff rate that was lower than the duty they would’ve gotten if they retaliated.

But these aren’t traditional, binding trade deals with enforcement provisions and fine print spelling out the rules, and there’s only a one-year truce with China rather than a full agreement — leaving out the US’s most unbalanced trading relationship.

That’s left concern that pacts could yet come undone, especially given the potential for pressure from Beijing against any nation open to working with Washington at China’s expense.

Developments within the past month have showcased the risks. Since the White House announced its “landmark trade deal” in July, Indonesia has been resisting US trade demands that it feared would restrain its independence and now sees an agreement being signed in late January. China complained to Malaysia and Cambodia about the trade deals those two nations signed with Washington, warning them against measures that undermine Beijing’s interest.

Even the UK has seen fresh difficulties crop up.

Last week, Greer singled out the European Union and India, saying that contentious talks aimed their respective trade deals are set to spill into the new year. Greer’s office, in a social media post last week, threatened retaliation against the EU for what Washington considers to be excessive regulation of American tech companies.

The Supreme Court

Among the biggest unknowns in trade circles heading into 2026 is a pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs — the broad levies he imposed on most major trading partners.

If Trump does lose the case, one of the most consequential questions for the economy and the country’s fiscal outlook will be whether the government will have to refund the money that American importers paid in tariffs. It’s not clear cut that’ll happen in a timely or organized way.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CBS’s that even if the high court doesn’t rule in the administration’s favor, it would be “pretty unlikely that they’re going to call for widespread refunds, because it would be an administrative problem” to distribute those.

Betting markets have put about a 75% chance on a Trump loss, which means the administration will have to use other authorities at the president’s disposal to impose tariffs.

Asked at the Atlantic Council earlier this month whether 2026 will be quieter on the tariff front than this year, Greer declined to offer a forecast. “That’s a question for President Trump,” he said.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Foreign footwear makers have canceled plans to invest in Indonesia, and shoe factory managers in Vietnam are absorbing some additional costs, accelerating automation and tapping the brakes on hiring as U.S. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs infiltrate a key sector for Southeast Asian economies.

Slowing demand in the U.S. is also driving Asian-based manufacturers to seek new markets, but some American buyers have indicated the new levies will not prompt them to abandon their current suppliers in the region. This suggests that the tariffs, which Trump said are meant to push manufacturers to move production to the U.S., are not having the desired effect.

Vietnam and Indonesia are the world's second and third largest footwear exporters after China, according to the World Footwear Yearbook 2025, shipping 1.6 billion and 600 million pairs respectively in 2024. Cambodia is also in the top 10.

After much negotiating, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed so-called reciprocal tariffs of 19% on goods from Indonesia and Cambodia, and 20% on those from Vietnam.

Yoseph Billie Dosiwoda, executive director of the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo), said the uncertainty triggered by the tariffs had prompted some investors to cancel plans to build factories in the country.

"The investment trend is now downward," he told Nikkei Asia, although he declined to name any companies. "We hope the [U.S.] government can lower the 19% reciprocal tariff to 15% or 10%."

Visitors watch robots making shoes on a production line at an exhibition in Fuzhou, Fujian province, China. Footwear makers in Vietnam say the new U.S. tariffs have prompted them to accelerate their automation drives. © Getty Images

Indonesian footwear exports to the U.S. were valued at $2.39 billion in 2024, accounting for 33.7% of the sector's exports.

But Dosiwoda said U.S. demand for Indonesian footwear products decreased by some 23% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. While October and November data have yet to be published, he said the slump was exacerbated in these months by the decline in American purchasing power due to the U.S. government shutdown for 43 days. The downturn has led to layoffs across the industry.

If tariffs remain above 15%, Indonesian-made products will no longer be competitive, he added, citing high production costs and low labor productivity. "Industry players need domestic deregulation to improve many things, including productivity, a conducive [business climate], and friendly wages [for employers]," Dosiwoda said. Indonesian unions are demanding a 10% wage hike, while in Vietnam the overall minimum wage will rise about 7%.

Vietnam's shoe exports to the U.S. dropped 4% in November versus a year earlier after falling 13% in the previous three months, national statistics show. Companies have reacted to the tariffs by looking for new customers, cutting costs and selling more expensive products.

One executive managing tens of thousands of workers said the increased costs were being shared by the buyers and manufacturers, with many factories pushing increased automation. "These are things we need to do anyway," the industry veteran said. "This gives us no choice but to go faster."

Maybank economist Brian Lee confirmed the trend. "Lower external demand could weigh on the employment outlook," he told Nikkei. "Indeed, firms have become more cautious on hiring."

Indonesia's Aprisindo and the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association say they are increasingly looking toward markets like the European Union -- and Japan in Vietnam's case -- for new opportunities. Indonesia and the E.U. signed a trade deal in September that is likely to remove almost all tariffs on footwear, although this is unlikely to come into effect before the second half of 2027.

Ken Loo, secretary general of the Textile, Apparel, Footwear and Travel Goods Association of Cambodia, said he expects "all players in the supply chain" will share the increased costs of the U.S. tariffs on Cambodian exports.

A boy in a New York shoe store. Footwear sellers in the U.S. are predicting demand will soften in the coming months as tariffs lead to higher prices.

The tariffs are also being felt in the U.S. Footwear prices began climbing in July due to the tariffs. According to consumer price index data for September, the latest available, footwear rose 1.3% year over year, while women's shoes went up 2.8%.

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO of casual footwear brand Steve Madden, said in a November earnings call that the price increases have not fully offset the tariffs, and so the levies have eaten into his company's profit margins. He added that the company will be prudent about any more price hikes. Athletic apparel maker Nike, meanwhile, said its U.S. sales rose 9.3% in the three months to the end of November but warned of only modest growth in the current quarter.

VF Corporation, which owns Vans and Timberland, said in an earnings call that it began increasing prices in the fourth quarter of this year to pay for the tariffs.

More turmoil could be on the way as some U.S. importers hold off on placing orders as they await a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court on whether Trump's sweeping tariffs were imposed illegally. The decision could be months away.

The National Retail Federation is therefore forecasting U.S. imports will continue to decline in 2026.

Nevertheless, Indonesia, India and Cambodia are the three most popular emerging sourcing destinations, according to a U.S. Fashion Industry Association survey, with more than 60% of respondents planning to expand sourcing from these countries over the next two years.

Patrick Soong, who helps U.S. companies source in Asia, said none of his customers have shifted sourcing because of the tariffs. Some 20% of Soong's customers source from Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

"It doesn't truly matter in the eyes of the U.S. brand, on where you source," he said. "It's more about the factories' capabilities and the output they can reach."

Source: Asia_Nikkei

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

2025 overview

The end of 2025 was rough. Over $1.2 trillion in crypto market value gone in six weeks. Bitcoin (BTC) gave up more than 30% and slipped below $82,000; a liquidity vacuum. Leverage wiped out, exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows, passive funds pulling capital at once.

But as of now, things feel different. The panic’s faded. What’s left is tighter, more focused. Price is recovering, but slowly. This time around, the engine underneath looks stronger.

Liquidity: everything flows from here

What hit hardest recently wasn’t retail panic, it was mechanical. Business Insider reported $19 billion in liquidations in one day, the biggest in crypto history. Add a wave of institutional de-risking, and the market had no buffer.

Many major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles. Inflation is easing, growth is slowing, and rate cuts are already underway. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform better when liquidity improves and interest rates fall, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC declines.

2026 lands in the typical post-halving expansion zone, historically where momentum builds

Supply: thinning, quietly

Post-halving dynamics from 2024 are fully in play. Miners are getting half the rewards they used to, and many are scaling back or consolidating. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant, exchange reserves are at their lowest since 2018. Coins just aren’t moving like they used to.

A lot of BTC is now effectively out of circulation and locked in long-term wallets, ETFs, corporate treasuries. We can see it in the on-chain data: the active supply is thin, it isn’t a supply shock yet, but it’s close.

Demand: still there, but slower

ETF flows paused last quarter of 2025, but they didn’t collapse. That’s a big change from earlier cycles. Over $50 billion went into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past year, and most of that capital hasn’t left. Allocators are treating BTC like an asset, not a trade.

Then there’s Strategy. Still sitting on 430K+ BTC and recently raised $1.4 billion in cash. As JPMorgan pointed out, if they’re not forced to sell and its market new asset value (mNAV) – a metric assessing crypto treasury companies’ valuation - holds above 1, they become a backstop. Add in the pending MSCI ruling in January (which decides whether crypto-heavy firms get to stay in major indices), and you’ve got real market structure in play.

2026 outlook

The outlook isn’t unanimous, but most serious forecasts now sit in the $120K to $170K range. The outlook is based on ETF flows, constrained supply, and improved liquidity conditions.

Fundstrat is more aggressive, pushing $400K+. JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted gold model suggests $170K is in play if Bitcoin continues to attract capital the way commodities do (especially gold). But few are pricing in euphoria. Most are looking at this as a grind upward.

2026 price target from $60K to nearly $500K, but most cluster between $120K and $170K

Key risks to monitor

ETF outflows could return fast if macro flips again. The Bybit hack reminded everyone the security layer still isn’t foolproof, Decrypt reported $1.4B lost to a hot wallet exploit. And if MSCI excludes firms like Strategy, $2.8B in passive outflows could hit the tape fast.

Technical analysis: bear phase into late 2026?

From the 2022 lows at $16.5K to the 2025 peak at ~$126K, BTC has already a completed five-wave rally under the Elliott Wave theory. If that’s correct, the end of year drop below $108K could’ve been the start of a longer correction.

In Elliott Wave terms, corrections following the five-wave rally usually play out in three stages: a first drop (A), a bounce (B), then a deeper pullback (C). If this pattern realises, Bitcoin could stay under pressure into mid-2026. Key price zones to watch on the way down include $84K, $70K, and $58K - areas where past cycles have found support.

Bitcoin daily price chart

Conclusion: a tighter market, but a split path

Bitcoin heads into 2026 with real structure: liquidity conditions are improving, supply remains limited, and institutional demand hasn’t disappeared. That sets the stage for continued strength, if those drivers hold.

But with the recent breakdown and a possible completed five-wave rally, the case for a longer correction is also on the table. Whether this cycle has one more leg higher or already topped, the next phase will be shaped more by mechanics than momentum.

Source: ig

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Michelle

Stocks

Economic

NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ 100 looks like it is going to be very quiet on Wednesday, which is not a surprise. It is Christmas Eve, and it is a shortened session, and most Americans just really cannot be bothered. There will be, of course, some electronic trading, and in pre-market trading, we have done very little, but it looks more positive than negative if nothing else.

I do think the short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities over the next several weeks. Keep in mind that volume shrinks quite a bit this week and next week, so you could get erratic moves, but at this point, I see no reason to look at this as a market you should be shorting. I am still paying close attention to the 25,000 level for support.

Dow Jones 30 Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 is slightly positive as well, but again, this is a situation where the volume just is not going to be there to get the market overly excited, at least unless, of course, something happens externally.

The 47,750 level continues to be support, and the 49,000 level above continues to be resistance. All things being equal, I am a buyer of dips, and I do think this is a market that, given enough time, will have to challenge 50,000. That is obviously a story for 2026, but I think that is where we are going.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 sits right here at all-time highs or within about 15 points of it as I record the video, and it does look like it wants to break out to the upside. I do think that the S&P 500 will find the $7,000 level before it is all said and done.

Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and there is nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests that we should be thinking about going short. 6,800 continues to be supported, especially with the 50-day EMA reaching that level. Therefore, I am looking for dips and buying the right-hand side of the V in order to continue to take advantage of a longer-term uptrend.

Source: FX Empire

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Adam

Economic

A stronger than expected U.S. growth print reset investor assumptions around momentum, policy, and asset allocation, lifting equities to fresh highs while reinforcing a selective risk on tone across global markets. Third quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace through September, materially above the 3.2% consensus and the fastest rate in 2 years. The composition mattered as much as the headline, with consumer spending accelerating and easing concerns that a cooling labor market would translate into an abrupt pullback in household demand. That reassurance initially created hesitation as markets weighed the implications for interest rates, but the session ultimately resolved higher as investors judged that growth resilience still outweighed policy risks.

U.S. equities reflected that recalibration. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a new record, its first since 12 December, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq composite advanced 0.6%. The market response underscored a belief that the economy remains in a narrow window where growth is firm enough to support earnings without immediately forcing a restrictive policy response. Longer dated Treasury yields were little changed, signaling that bond markets are not yet challenging the idea that inflation is decelerating even as activity accelerates. Expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026 remain embedded, alongside confidence that the Federal Reserve will avoid overtightening into a still expanding economy.

At the same time, the data revived a parallel debate around policy credibility and the dollar. Strong growth paired with easing inflation has historically supported equities, but concerns that aggressive easing could eventually push long term yields higher and undermine the currency have driven defensive hedging. Gold extended its rally above $4,500 per troy ounce before closing just below that level at another record, leaving prices up more than 70% in 2025. The move reflects not near term inflation fear but longer-horizon skepticism about monetary discipline if growth remains strong enough to justify looser financial conditions.

Equity leadership remained concentrated in growth and innovation. Communication services and information technology outperformed, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) rising 3% and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) gaining 2.3% as investors continued to reward companies most leveraged to sustained capital spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. In healthcare, Novo Nordisk’s (NYSE:NVO) U.S. listed shares jumped 7.3% after regulators cleared the company to begin selling an oral version of its Wegovy obesity treatment in January, reinforcing expectations of broader market penetration beyond injectable therapies. Moderna moved in the opposite direction, falling 7.5% after a sharp December rally of more than 30%, a reminder that momentum-driven gains remain vulnerable to profit-taking.

The growth signal also echoed overseas. European equities tracked the positive tone, with the Stoxx Europe 600 reaching a record, while energy markets extended their recovery. Brent crude settled at $62.38 per barrel, its fifth consecutive daily advance from recent lows, supported by firmer demand assumptions tied to global growth rather than supply constraints.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether incoming inflation data and labor market indicators confirm that the economy can sustain above trend growth without reigniting price pressures. The base case remains a continuation of solid consumption and gradual disinflation that supports equities and selective risk-taking. The key risk is that persistent strength forces a reassessment of rate cut expectations, pushing real yields higher and testing the durability of equity valuations, particularly in the most crowded growth segments.

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin frustrated traders on Christmas Eve as rangebound BTC price action contrasted with record highs in gold and silver.

Key points:

Bitcoin plays a “waiting game” as bidders stay focused on precious metals.

A giant options expiry event should set the scene for BTC price upside, analysis says.

Gold coils after hitting $4,500 for the first time in history.

Bitcoin gets $100,000 post-expiry target

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to $87,000 with the Christmas holidays around the corner. Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_1

Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These were tipped to provide volatility of their own — especially with a record options expiry event due Friday.

“Historically, BTC has tended to experience 5 to 7% swings during the Christmas period, a pattern often linked to year-end options expiries rather than fresh fundamental catalysts,” trading company QCP Capital commented in its latest US Color market update.

“This Friday’s record expiry is no exception. Roughly 300k BTC option contracts, equivalent to $23.7bn, alongside 446k IBIT option contracts, are set to expire.”Total BTC options open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

QCP noted that the expiry constituted over half of open interest on major exchange Deribit, with the “max pain” level at $95,000.

“A clearer picture of downside positioning should emerge after Friday’s options expiry, particularly whether the large December 85k Puts are rolled forward, closed out, or replaced further down the curve,” it added.

The expiry had been of interest to market participants for some time. Earlier in the month, executive David Eng described the event as “acting like a lid” on BTC price upside.

“Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, structure changes,” he told X followers, giving $100,000 as an initial target.

“This is a textbook setup: volatility suppressed by design, then released by the calendar.”

Bitcoin plays “waiting game” as stocks, gold rise

On shorter timeframes, patience was running thin.

“Bitcoin currently stalls between $85-90K for multiple weeks. It's a waiting game,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized Tuesday.

Van de Poppe argued that stocks first needed to find a local high before capital could flow back into crypto — a theory also applied to precious metals. Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_3

Bitcoin Due Gains After Record $24B Options Expiry Lifts ‘Lid’ on BTC Price_3

BTC/USD four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

As Cointelegraph reported, gold and silver continued to enjoy price discovery through the week, with XAU/USD reaching $4,500 per ounce for the first time ever.

“The upside in silver, palladium, and platinum is a short squeeze and unsustainable,” market commentator Garrett responded to Cointelegraph coverage on X.