5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

Stocks

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Stock futures slipped as a busy week of earnings and economic data approaches. Tariffs impact Chinese factories and U.S. consumer behavior. Domestic airfare drops amid slowdown fears, while major companies like Apple and Amazon report results.

Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

Inching back

Stock futures slid Monday as investors looked ahead to a jammed week of earnings reports and economic data. The three major U.S. indexes climbed last week and have now recovered much or all of what they lost after President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on dozens of countries at the start of the month – which he has since temporarily lowered. The S&P 500 has fallen 1.5% so far in April, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 4.5%. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 0.5%. In addition to hearing how some of the most important companies in the world are faring, investors will also digest first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, both out Wednesday, followed by the April jobs report on Friday. Follow live market updates.

Earnings extravaganza

The busiest week of earnings season is upon Wall Street. About one-third of both the S&P 500 and Dow will post results this week. Those include four of the so-called Magnificent Seven – Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft – along with major consumer brands like Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonald’s and Eli Lilly. Investors will be watching whether any companies reduce or withdraw their financial guidance because of tariffs or lower consumer spending. Several restaurants, airlines and consumer packaged goods companies took that step last week. Here are the key reports to watch:

Tuesday: UPS , Pfizer, Coca-Cola (before the bell); Starbucks (after the bell)

Wednesday: Yum Brands, Etsy (before the bell); Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm (after the bell)

Thursday: CVS, Eli Lilly, McDonald’s (before the bell); Apple, Amazon, Airbnb, Reddit, Block (after the bell)

Friday: Chevron, Exxon Mobil (before the bell)

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway

China crunch

Trump’s tariff on Chinese imports is starting to hit businesses in the country. Some manufacturers are either trying to find new markets or stopping production in the face of the 145% duty the U.S. has imposed on many goods. “I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. Many of the most affected businesses make toys, sporting goods or low-cost items sold at places like dollar stores.

Pall of duty

The threat of tariffs has caused U.S. consumers to spring early for some major purchases like cars and iPhones. But in many other areas, shoppers are holding out because of the duties and economic uncertainty. “There’s so much uncertainty right now that shoppers just don’t know what to do,” said Steve Zurek, vice president of thought leadership at NielsenIQ. “There’s nowhere to hide here — all they can do is control the household economics they have.”

Losing altitude

Domestic airfare is falling in the U.S. Airline CEOs have said demand for domestic trips is falling as travelers digest tariffs and concerns about an economic slowdown, leaving empty seats in the back of planes. “Nobody really relishes uncertainty when they’re talking about what they could do on a vacation and spend hard-earned dollars,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said on a quarterly earnings call on Thursday. Even so, Americans are still traveling overseas in droves.

Source: cnbc

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Michelle

Forex

Political

The Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3868, up 0.10% on the day. There are no economic releases out of the US or Canada today.

Liberals expected to win Canadian election

It’s Election Day in Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has only been in office since March, is favored to win the election. Carney’s Liberal Party was badly trailing the Conservatives but US President Trump has ignited Canadian nationalism and turned the election race upside down.

Trump has talked about annexing Canada and although most Canadians don’t expect that to happen, there is strong resentment against the US tariff policy, which has hit Canada even though the two countries have a free trade agreement.

Carney is viewed as a strong leader who can stand up to Trump and the markets have priced in a Liberal majority. If the Liberals are forced to make a coalition with the smaller parties, the new government would be considered less stable and that would likely trigger some CAD weakness. If the Conservatives manage to pull out a surprise election victory, the Canadian dollar would likely get a boost.

Canada’s retail sales dips in February, rebounds in March

Canada’s retail sales declined 0.4% m/m in February but bounced back in March with a strong gain of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, retail sales slipped to 4.7% in February, down from a revised 5.3% in January.

The improvement in March was driven by consumers making purchases ahead of US tariffs, but consumer spending is likely to deteriorate. The Bank of Canada will be keeping a close eye and will have to consider further rate cuts if upcoming economic data is weak. The BoC maintained the cash rate at 2.75% earlier this month and meets next on June 4.

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3868. Above, there is resistance at 1.3880 and 1.3910
1.3850 and 1.3838 are the next support levels

USD/CAD 4-Hour Chart, April 28, 2025

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Wall Street drifted modestly lower before the opening bell as uncertainty over global trade seeps into the busiest week of earnings this quarter from major corporations, as well as a raft of economic indicators

Futures for the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% Monday, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.1%. Nasdaq futures also fell 0.2%.

Domino’s Pizza slipped 1.5% in premarket trading after it’s quarterly revenue came in slightly below Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street was also caught off guard by a decline in U.S. same store sales. Domino’s closed 25 stores abroad while opening 17 in the U.S.

Domino’s did not mention tariffs or trade policy, but corporations across across multiple sectors have lowered or withdrawn their projections, citing the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs. Domino’s referred to the current global macroeconomic environment as “challenging.”

Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs may be pushing households and businesses to alter their spending and freeze plans for long-term investment because of how quickly conditions can change, seemingly by the hour.

Despite a market rally last week, as talk of Trump firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell receded and hints emerged of a selective softening of his stance on tariffs, not much has changed, Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said.

“But let’s not kid ourselves: this isn’t a clean pivot,” Innes said. “It’s hope and narrative management, plain and simple. What’s really driving the bounce isn’t hard policy action — it’s the perception of de-escalation.”

Trump says he’s on a path to cut several new trade deals in a few weeks — but has also suggested it’s “physically impossible” to hold all the needed meetings.

The hope is that if Trump rolls back some of his stiff tariffs, he could avert a recession that many investors see as otherwise likely because of his trade war.

Shares of Deliveroo, the food delivery service based in London, are hitting three-year highs after it received a $3.6 billion takeover offer from DoorDash. Deliveroo announced the bid after markets closed in Europe on Friday. Deliveroo on Monday suspended a share buyback program due to the offer.

Other major companies reporting earnings this week include four of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. Starbucks, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s also issue their latest financial results this week.

The Conference Board releases the results of its latest consumer confidence survey on Tuesday, while the U.S. government serves up reports throughout the week on consumer spending, inflation, gross domestic product and the broader employment situation.

Elsewhere, in Europe, Germany’s DAX added 0.4%, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.6% and Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.2%.

Shares in China slipped despite more efforts by Beijing to boost the economy, as the status of talks between Washington and Beijing remained unclear.

Trump has said he’s actively negotiating with the Chinese government on tariffs — while the Chinese and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that talks have yet to start.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was nearly unchanged at 21,971.96, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2% to 3,288.41.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 picked up 0.4% to 35,839.99 and the Kospi in South Korea was nearly unchanged at 2,548.86.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.4%, closing at 7,997.10. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8%

In energy trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 31 cents to $62.71 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude, the international standard, fell 30 cents to $65.50 per barrel.

In currencies, the U.S. dollar declined to 143.45 Japanese yen from 143.60 yen. The euro fell to $1.1347 from $1.1366.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Michelle

China–U.S. Trade War

Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic trade war has triggered a slump in container shipments to the US’s most important ports, amid the growing risk of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

In the latest sign of the US president’s tariff policies rattling the economy, figures show the number of vessels scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles next week is down by almost a third from the same period a year earlier.

According to the data compiled from ocean carrier manifest records by Port Optimizer, the number of arrivals this week is on track to be down by about 11% from the same week last year. Separate figures reported by the Financial Times from Vizion, a data provider, show container bookings from China to the US fell 45% by mid-April compared with a year earlier.

Economists have warned that Trump’s trade battles will lead to a significant slowdown in global trade and come with a cost for US consumers by pushing up prices and raising the chances of a recession. Washington has imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports and a blanket 10% border tax on all other countries, barring some exemptions.

Over the weekend, the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, suggested there was a potential “path” to a deal with China on tariffs after speaking with his Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings.

Analysis by the US private equity group Apollo Global Management showed new business orders have fallen sharply since Trump’s “liberation day” announcement on 2 April.

Torsten Sløk, the asset manager’s chief economist, said: “For companies, new orders are falling, capex [investment] plans are declining, inventories were rising before tariffs took effect, and firms are revising down earnings expectations.

“For households, consumer confidence is at record-low levels, consumers were front loading purchases before tariffs began, and tourism is slowing, in particular international travel.”

Growing numbers of US company chief executives have voiced alarm at the impact from Trump’s tariff policies. The bosses of Walmart and Target, two of the country’s largest retailers, have warned the president that his plans could disrupt supply chains, raise prices and lead to empty shelves.

Analysts said the latest shipping figures, which are updated on a daily basis, indicated the fallout was escalating. However, some of the decline will also be down to a lull in activity after US companies rushed to import goods before Trump’s inauguration in anticipation of his tariff policies.

The US trade deficit widened to a record high in January as companies front-loaded imports before tariffs were imposed.

Kathleen Brooks, the research director at the trading platform XTB, said: “Already, port authorities in the US and logistics firms are expecting Chinese shipments to fall sharply.

“Demand for goods from China has plummeted since mid-April, suggesting that US businesses have been quick to adjust to the tariffs.”

Brooks said the fall in container bookings would have a “major impact” on Chinese businesses. However, the vice head of China’s state planner, Zhao Chenxin, said on Monday he was “fully confident” that the world’s second-largest economy would achieve its economic growth target of about 5% for 2025.

The San Pedro Bay ports of LA and Long Beach handle almost a third of all containerised seaborne trade in the US, and act as the main gateway for goods from China. As the busiest port in the western hemisphere, cars, computers and smartphones are the top imports to the port of LA.

Highlighting that it typically takes between 20 and 40 days for a sea container to travel from China to the US, Sløk said there would be a knock-on impact on demand for US trucking from the middle of next month, which could lead to empty shelves and layoffs in the distribution and retail industries.

This could lead to a recession by the summer, he added.

Paul Krugman, the US Nobel-winning economist, said the collapse in trade was “reminiscent of what happened during and after the Covid pandemic” amid growing uncertainty for companies over the president’s policies.

“But this time a virus won’t be responsible. It will all be about Donald Trump,” he wrote on Substack. “This time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months.”

Source: GUARDIAN

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Cable edged higher early Monday and pressure pivotal barrier at 1.3350 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3423/1.3232 pullback / former recovery peak of Apr 24).

Series of higher lows since 1.3232 correction low, with fresh recovery being tracked by ascending 10DMA add to near term bullish bias, with sustained break of 1.3350 needed to confirm that corrective phase is over, and larger bulls look for fresh attack at key 1.3434 barrier (2024 top).

On the other hand, sharp drop in confidence in the UK economy (at the historical low) and signal that already fragile economy may weaken further, add to warnings that larger bulls may stall on approach to 1.3434.

Growing optimism on fading threats from the negative impact from US trade tariffs and initial signals of Ukraine war peace talks may offer fresh support to US dollar and push sterling in defensive.

The notion is supported by overbought weekly studies, fading bullish momentum and strong upside rejection last week (weekly candle with long upper shadow).

Also, momentum is overstretched and turned sideways on daily chart, along with RSI being close the border of overbought zone, although daily studies are overall still bullish.

Expect prolonged consolidation while the price action remains limited by 1.3423 (recent recovery peak) and 1.3254 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.2708/1.3423 upleg / correction low).

Loss of 1.3254/ 1.3200 to weaken near term structure and risk deeper correction towards 1.3150 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1.3121 (20DMA).

Res: 1.3400; 1.3434; 1.3515; 1.3588
Sup: 1.3298; 1.3254; 1.3200; 1.3150

Source: ACTIONFOREX

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Record-Breaking Capital Inflows Amid Trade Turbulence

As global trade tensions intensify, Thailand has become a standout destination for international capital, particularly in its bond market. Data from the Thai Bond Market Association shows that in April, global investment funds poured approximately $2 billion into Thai bonds, marking the highest inflow since February 2022. Meanwhile, rival emerging markets such as India and Indonesia experienced net capital outflows over the same period.

This divergence underscores a growing trend: Thailand's relative stability amid global volatility is making it increasingly attractive to investors seeking safer assets. The flow of capital toward Thailand highlights a parallel movement with global uncertainty, although it does not fully establish causality without isolating additional factors like domestic fiscal policy and geopolitical perceptions.

Factors Strengthening Thailand’s Appeal

The Thai bond market’s appeal has been bolstered by several converging factors. Economists predict that the Bank of Thailand will cut policy rates for the second time this year during its upcoming meeting. Investors are rushing to lock in higher yields before rates fall further, resulting in a surge of demand, especially for short-term government bonds.

Concurrently, Thailand’s status as a major gold trading hub has amplified its attractiveness. Global gold prices have risen sharply—by approximately 7% since early April—amid a broader flight to safe-haven assets. Thailand holds the largest gold reserves in Southeast Asia, and in March alone, the country's gold exports increased by 270% compared to the same month last year. This strong gold linkage has reinforced the baht’s appeal, with the currency appreciating by over 2% during the same timeframe.

The statistical relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the baht and global gold prices has also intensified, with their correlation coefficient climbing from 0.15 in February to 0.44 by late April. This growing alignment suggests a stronger tendency for the baht to move in tandem with gold prices, although this remains a correlation rather than a confirmed direct causal relationship.

Policy Environment and Investor Strategy Adjustments

Thailand’s government is contemplating fiscal expansion to buffer the domestic economy against the fallout from U.S. tariff measures. This policy backdrop, combined with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy, is shaping investor strategies.

Edward Ng of Nikko Asset Management highlighted that Thai bonds are becoming less correlated with U.S. Treasuries, thereby reducing the contagion risks from global market shocks. Short-term bonds, in particular, are viewed as better insulated from potential fiscal borrowing pressures compared to long-term securities. Analysts at Nomura Holdings echoed this sentiment but warned that long-dated bonds could still face upward pressure on yields if public spending surges.

Wachirawat Banchuen of Siam Commercial Bank noted that the sharp decline in Thailand’s two-year bond yields to their lowest levels since 2022 reflects investor expectations of ongoing rate cuts and continued baht strength. In this case, the sequence of events suggests that expectations for monetary easing are directly influencing bond demand and yield movements, reinforcing a causative interpretation.

Thailand's bond market is experiencing a rare moment of overwhelming investor confidence, driven by the convergence of rate cut expectations, gold-fueled currency appreciation, and the country’s relative insulation from global financial volatility. While the capital influx reflects favorable short-term conditions, ongoing developments in fiscal policy and global trade dynamics will be crucial in determining whether this momentum can be sustained. For now, Thailand stands out as a key safe harbor in an otherwise unsettled regional landscape.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks were still in the black by midday on Monday as investors eyed a busy week, with UK banks and US tech giants due to report.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.3% at 8,442.06.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: "An uneasy calm has descended on markets, with a sense that no news is good news in respect of any further tariff announcements for the time being at least.

"Left to their own devices without the major distractions of the confusing messages emanating from the White House, investors have gone back to their knitting temporarily and markets have edged slightly higher as a result, although not by enough to repair the damage which has already been wrought."

Hunter pointed to a busy reporting week to come domestically, with updates from the oil majors and the pharmaceuticals, as well as a half-year report from Primark owner Associated British Foods.

"However, the first quarter reporting season from the UK banks is likely to top the agenda. Each has had a strong share price run leading into the numbers, with the recent read across from the US banks providing some comfort. That being said, and as with their Stateside peers, outlook comments are likely to be highly cautious given the current global backdrop and any notable increases in impairment provisions would likely be met with some disappointment."

In the US, tech results from the likes of Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple will be in focus.

In UK equity markets, Ladbrokes owner Entain was the top gainer on the FTSE 100 ahead of its first-quarter trading update on Tuesday.

Deliveroo surged after it announced late on Friday that it had received a £2.7m takeover proposal from US rival DoorDash that it was minded to recommend.

Housebuilder Berkeley Group was boosted by an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at UBS.

On the downside, Marks & Spencer slumped as it continued to deal with the impact of a cyber attack which has led the retailer to pause online orders.

According to Sky News on Monday, the retailer has ordered around 200 agency workers at its main distribution centre in Castle Donington to stay at home as it deals with the crisis.

ITV was weaker following a report that French media firm Banijay Group is working on plans for a takeover offer for the broadcaster or its studio arm.

The Financial Times cited sources as saying that Banijay has held early talks with ITV, whose studio arm has attracted interest from a range of investment groups such as RedBird IMI, which owns rival All3Media, as well as private equity funds.

Fintech group Plus500 nudged lower despite saying it expects 2025 results to be ahead of current market forecasts after an "excellent" start to the year, driven by recent macroeconomic and financial market conditions.