U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: Slight Decline Reflects Steady Cooling in Labor Market

Economic

Data Interpretation

Summary:

The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 2,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending August 24, bringing the total to 231,000. This figure was better than the expected 232,000, consistent with the ongoing gradual cooling of the labor market.

On August 29, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Labor released its latest initial jobless claims report:

Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 24 were 231,000, slightly better than the expected 232,000, and down from the revised 233,000 in the previous week.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims for the week ending August 24 was 231,500, down from the revised 236,250 in the previous week.

The report highlighted that initial claims have declined from the 11-month high seen in late July, as the effects of temporary factory shutdowns for production line reorganization in the auto industry and the impact of Hurricane Beryl have diminished. This figure aligns with the gradual cooling of the labor market, helping to alleviate concerns about a sharp economic downturn.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated last week that employment growth for the 12 months ending in March this year had been overstated by an average of 68,000 jobs per month. However, this benchmark revision estimate may be misleading since the data is based on reports submitted by employers to state unemployment insurance program offices, which do not include undocumented immigrants, a group that contributed significantly to last year's strong job growth.

Despite the slowdown in hiring, re-employment opportunities for the unemployed are becoming scarcer, potentially keeping the U.S. unemployment rate at a high level in August. Financial markets currently expect the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction.

Initial Jobless Claims Report

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ECB

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

On August 29, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said:

Thanks to monetary policy tightening, inflation has fallen significantly since its peak of 10.6% in the autumn of 2022 but hasn't reached the 2% mid-term target. In the euro area, headline inflation has been around 2.6 % for ten months now. Core inflation, especially services inflation, remains elevated and is a matter of concern for us.

The labour market is tight. The current process of disinflation has not yet led to any significantly higher unemployment figures. During the post-pandemic recovery, many firms had difficulties in filling higher numbers of vacancies. This experience, and the prospect of rising labour shortages due to demographic change, likely prompted firms to continue hiring new employees. As a result, labour demand has grown more sharply than labour supply over the past four years. But higher wages lead to higher prices in the labour-intensive services sector, especially as productivity growth is weak.

In general, despite some improvements in inflation, we have to stay inside the restraints. We need to be careful and must not lower policy rates too quickly. We will continue to carefully monitor incoming data, and adjust the policy as needed to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Nagel's Speech

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SAXO

Economic

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – August 30, 2024_1

Macro:

•The 2nd estimate of US Q2 GDP was revised higher to 3.0% from 2.8%, beating expectations of it being left unchanged. Consumer Spending was also revised up to 2.9% from 2.3%, while the GDP deflator was revised up to 2.5% from 2.3%, above the expected 2.3%. Core PCE was revised down to 2.8% for Q2 from the 2.9% prior. This data, however, has limited implication for what the Fed does at the September meeting given it is backward-looking.

•US initial jobless claims rose 231k in the w/e 24th August, slightly shy of the expected, 232k, and the prior, 233k, but continues to hover around the 230k mark and highlight that the labour market is not seeing any further weakness or notable softening, which suggests the Fed will likely go with a 25bps cut in September. However, the August non-farm payrolls data will have a bigger sway in Fed’s policy decision.

•Germany’s August CPI saw a sharp drop to the 2% target from 2.6% in July, supporting the case for an ECB rate cut in September. Euro-area inflation figures are due today and consensus expects headline inflation to fall to 2.1% YoY in August from 2.6% in July but core falling more slowly to 2.8% from 2.9% previously.

•Japan’s Tokyo CPI came in higher-than-expected for August, supporting the case for further rate hikes from Bank of Japan. Headline Tokyo CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.2% in July and 2.3% expected. Core CPI also higher at 2.4% YoY in August from 2.2% prior and expected and the core-core measure rose to 1.6% YoY from 1.5%.

•US PCE Preview: Focus today will be on the core PCE print and personal income and spending numbers for July. Consensus for core PCE stands unchanged at 0.2% MoM but slightly higher on YoY basis at 2.7% from 2.6% in June. However, with the Fed having hinted rate cuts clearly, a print close to 0.4% MoM may be needed in the core measure to derail that. The PCE is also unlikely to prompt the market to price in a larger rate cut for September in case of softening, so bigger focus still remains on labor market indicators.

Macro events:

French Prelim CPI (Aug), EZ Flash CPI (Aug), Italian Flash CPI (Aug), US PCE (Jul), US University of Michigan Final (Aug)

Earnings:

Frontline, JinkoSolar, MiniSo

Equities:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained mostly unchanged, while the Dow Jones hit a new record high, rising over 200 points. Investors were evaluating recent economic reports and Nvidia's results. Although Nvidia's quarterly profit and revenue guidance were better than expected, they didn't meet the high expectations, causing its shares to drop by 6%. Meanwhile, the US GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3% from 2.8%, and personal spending, a key economic driver, increased by 2.9%, higher than the earlier estimate of 2.3%.

Additionally, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 231,000 from the previous week. Corporate earnings also affected the market, with Salesforce, Best Buy, and Affirm shares performing well on strong results, while Dollar General fell by 30% after lowering its full-year outlook due to weaker sales.

Fixed income:

Treasuries fell due to unexpected upward revisions in US 2Q GDP components. Treasury futures hit their lowest levels of the day, with losses persisting after a weak 7-year note auction. Treasury yields rose by 3 to 3.5 basis points, with the US 10-year yields closing around 3.87%, underperforming German bunds. The 7-year note auction tailed the WI by 0.9 basis points, with primary dealer awards at 13.7% and direct awards at 11.2%, the lowest since March 2020.

In August, the US money-market fund industry attracted $127 billion, the largest monthly inflow of the year, as investors sought high yields ahead of expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Total assets reached a record $6.26 trillion. US bonds are set for their best performance in three years as traders anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts. Treasuries have returned 1.7% this month through August 28, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain and a year-to-date rise of 3%, according to the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Index.

Commodities:

Oil prices held steady after Thursday's surge, driven by positive US economic data and worsening supply disruptions in Libya. West Texas Intermediate traded below $76 a barrel after a 1.9% gain, while Brent crude closed near $80.

Despite this, oil is on track for a second consecutive monthly loss due to weak demand in China and potential OPEC+ supply restoration. Gold remained near a record high at around $2,520 an ounce as traders awaited a US inflation report that could influence Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold. Aluminum continued its decline from a two-month high due to concerns about China’s demand recovery. Since Tuesday's close, aluminum has fallen by about 3%, trimming its strong monthly gain. The spot three-month spread on the London Metal Exchange was $27 a ton.

FX:

The strength in US data overnight, coming from GDP and jobless claims, fueled gains in the US dollar as expectations about a 50 basis points rate cut in September were questioned. Still, market pricing has not changed a lot and August jobs data is awaited.

Swiss franc weakened the most among the major currencies, although the Japanese yen pared some of its weakness. The euro was on the backfoot, falling back below 1.11 against the US dollar and testing 0.84 against the British pound as weaker German inflation data supported the case for an ECB rate cut in September. Commodity currencies, meanwhile, erased their earlier strength as equities came under pressure.

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ECB

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

On Thursday, August 29, Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), delivered an important speech, with the key points as follows:

According to the ECB's own tracker of salary trends, the second half of this year will still see "plenty of wage increases," but "the catch-up is peaking now.

Pay growth for workers in the euro zone — a key driver of inflation — will slow sharply in 2025 and 2026. This slowdown will help achieve the ECB's long-term inflation target of 2%.

On a quarterly basis, indicators measuring underlying inflation are consistent with the gradual reduction in price pressures. A "lot of progress" has been made in bringing down underlying price pressures, highlighting rising optimism over the slower pay gains. This is where the confidence in returning to target comes from.

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Thomas

Economic

Markets

Fixed income and FX markets yesterday had to cope with a divergent message from EMU and US data. German and Spanish August headline inflation slowed more than expected (German HICP -0.2% M/M and 2.0% from 2.6% vs 2.2% expected, Spain 0.0% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y from 2.9%). This provides some comfort for the ECB as it intends to further reduce policy tightening next month.

However, the slowdown mainly came from lower energy prices. The progress in measures of underlying inflation was far less impressive (Spain core 2.7% from 2.8, Germany 2.8% from 2.9%, with still rather robust services inflation 0.4% M/M). Still, the data initially pushed EMU yields lower in a steepening move.

However, global bond market momentum changed after the publication of US data. US Q2 GDP growth was upwardly revised from 2.8% Q/Qa to 3.0% due to strong personal consumption (2.9% from 2.3%). Weekly jobless claims also held a relatively low 231k. The Q2 GDP revision is old news but was enough for yields to close 2-3 bps higher across the curve.

German yields reversed part of the initial decline though the 2-y yield still lost -2.8 bps. The 30-y added 2.1 bps. After recent dollar weakness, softer EMU CPI data this timed triggered a correction of the euro. EUR/USD dropped from the 1.1140 area to close at 1.1077. DXY rebounded from 101.00 to 101.34, but gains in the likes of USD/JPY (close 145) were modest.

Equities initially also enjoyed some reflationary dynamics (EuroStoxx 50 +1.08%). US indices also opened with a constructive momentum, but mostly couldn’t hold on to initial gains (Nasdaq -0.23%). The Dow (+0.58%) finished at a new record. Markets for now apparently embrace a favourable (US) soft landing scenario.

This morning, Asian equities show broad-based gains with China outperforming. The yuan extends its comeback from earlier this month with USD/CNY testing the end-December low. The yen trades little changed after higher than expected Tokyo CPI data (USD/JPY 144.9).

Later today, EMU August flash CPI probably will confirm yesterday trends from Germany and Spain (headline expected at 0.2%M/M and 2.2% Y/Y, core 2.8% from 2.9%, risks for downside ‘surprise’). With 3 additional 25 bps ECB rate cuts at each of the remaining meetings this year still not fully discounted, there is still room for some further decline in yields at the short end of the EMU yield curve. This also might trigger some further euro correction ST.

In the US, the July income and spending data and the PCE deflators will be published. For the latter, a 0.2% M/M price dynamics is expected. Even in case of a mild soft surprise, we don’t expect a big market reaction with already 100 bps of cumulative Fed rate cuts discounted for this year. US markets are heading for a long weekend (Labour day). The focus will turn to next week’s key ISM’s and US labour market data. In this respect, we don’t change our call yet for the dollar to stay rather weak in the run-up the September Fed meeting.

News & Views

Tokyo inflation, the closely watched frontrunner of national inflation (September 20 release) put an October rate hike (updated GDP/CPI forecasts contrary to September meeting) by the Bank of Japan on the table. The central bank’s preferred gauge, CPI ex. fresh food, rose by 0.5% M/M with the Y/Y-figure unexpectedly accelerating from 2.2% to 2.4%. Headline inflation increased by 0.6% M/M and 2.6% Y/Y, matching the highest level YTD. Details showed goods inflation increasing by 0.8% M/M and services inflation rising by 0.3% M/M with sharper increases in costs of eating out, household services and entertainment driving the latter. While some of the inflation pick-up was the result of one-offs and base effects, it does not change the picture of a broad upswing in (service) prices. This bolsters the case for a further, be it gradual policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. The BoJ’s July hike came partially unexpected and helped cause the early August market riot, prompting some soothing comments from the central bank afterwards. Money markets therefore don’t expect much from the September 20 meeting and expect the next rate hike by December at the very earliest. Japanese bond yields trade little changed today as does the yen. USD/JPY oscillates around opening levels just south of 145.

Graphs

GE 10y yield

The ECB cut policy rates by 25 bps in June. Stubborn inflation (core, services) make follow-up moves less evident. Markets nevertheless price in two to three more cuts for 2024 as disappointing US and unconvincing EMU activity data rolled in, dragging the long end of the curve down. The move accelerated during the early August market meltdown.

US 10y yield

The Fed in its July meeting paved the way for a first cut in September. It turned attentive to risks to the both sides of its dual mandate as the economy is moving to a better in to balance. Markets tend to err in favour of a 50 bps lift-off. The pivot weakened the technical picture in US yields with another batch of weak eco data pushing the 10-yr sub 4%. Powell at Jackson Hole didn’t challenge markets’ positioning.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD moved above the 1.09 resistance area as the dollar lost interest rate support at stealth pace. US recession risks and bets on fast and large (50 bps) rate cuts trumped traditional safe haven flows into USD. EUR/USD 1 1.1276 (2023 top) serves as next technical reference.

EUR/GBP

The BoE delivered a hawkish cut in August. Policy restrictiveness will be further unwound gradually on a pace determined by a broad range of data. The strategy similar to the ECB’s balances out EUR/GBP in a monetary perspective. Recent better UK activity data and a cautious assessment of BoE’s Bailey at Jackson Hole are pushing EUR/GBP lower in the 0.84/0.086 range.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Pound to Euro exchange rate rallied to 1.19 on Thursday following the release of below-consensus German and Spanish inflation figures that raised the odds of a potential October interest rate cut at the European Central Bank (ECB).

"A September rate cut by the ECB is essentially a lock. The question for markets is whether October becomes likely," says Andrzej Szczepaniak, an analyst at Nomura. Germany's inflation surprised to the downside, printing at 2% year-on-year in August, down from 2.6% in July. Spain's inflation reading fell to 2.4% from 2.9% previously.

The prospect of two consecutive interest rate cuts at the ECB contrasts with expectations for the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged in September, with markets expecting the next rate cut in November.

These developments mean the ECB is cutting rates faster than the Bank of England and is doing so from a lower starting point. This should ensure investors continue to see value in UK interest rate-linked assets relative to those of the Eurozone for the foreseeable future.

This can generate supportive capital flows that would boost the Pound.

Ahead of month-end, we receive the Eurozone-wide HICP inflation release, which should come in lower than previously anticipated owing to the undershoots from Germany and Spain. However, this is now factored into euro exchange rates, and we think the impact of a softer-than-forecast reading will be limited.

Technicals are also set to have an impact, with GBP/EUR potentially finding the upside more difficult to overcome resistance around 1.19. This equates to a support level in EUR/GBP at 0.84, which can entice euro buyers looking for a potential recovery in the single currency.

Pound to Euro Rate Challenged at 1.19 Resistance_1

Above: GBP/EUR and EUR/GBP are shown with the key resistance/support area.

Nevertheless, momentum remains firmly routed in Pound Sterling's camp, and a test of the 2024 high at 1.1927 is possible in early September.

A move above here will depend on the tone of global equity markets, as the Pound is highly sensitive to overall sentiment and tends to fall when markets suffer a setback. With this in mind, next week's U.S. jobs report will be important.

Next week's data calendar in the UK and Eurozone is relatively light and we don't see any market-moving events, which can ensure some residual support for the Pound which will likely trade on technical considerations.

As such, consolidation around 1.19 is possible. A potential break higher - or a more notable pullback - is possible midmonth when the UK's inflation and wage figures are released.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Japan’s government upgraded its overall economic assessment for the first time in six months, noting consumer spending is supported by wage hikes and temporary income tax credits, but the change in wording is subtle and it continues to say the economy is recovering “moderately.”

In its monthly report for August released Thursday by the Cabinet Office, the government said the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace, although there are some areas where it is pausing.” Last month, it said the economy was “recovering at a moderate pace, although it appears to be pausing.”

In the April-June quarter, the economy posted a stronger-than-expected rebound after suffering its first contraction in two quarters in January-March, up a preliminary 0.8% on quarter, or an annualized 3.1%, as consumption and business investment picked up after having been hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal, Cabinet Office data released this month showed.

Looking ahead, the economy in July-September is expected to show moderate growth as large firms are raising wages at the fastest pace in 33 years and investing in capacity to cope with labor shortages. Real wages rose 1.1% on the year in June, marking the first rise in 27 months, after falling 1.3% the previous month.

The government continued to warn against downside risks from slower growth in other countries, “including the effects of continued high interest rate levels in the U.S. and Europe and the lingering stagnation of the real estate market in China.”

The Bank of Cananda cut its policy rate for the second straight month in July, citing easing inflationary pressures and cooling economy, and appears set to follow up with more cuts by the end of the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to start lowering interest rates in September.

The government continued to urge a close watch on inflation, the Middle East conflict and “fluctuations in the financial and capital markets” amid the protracted weakness of the yen that is keeping import costs high.

At its July 30-31 meeting, the Bank of Japan’s nine-member board decided in a 7 to 2 vote to raise the overnight interest rate target to 0.25% from a range of 0% to 0.1%, citing gradually rising inflation expectations among households and businesses and high but slightly easing uncertainties for the economy. It followed the bank’s first rate hike in 17 years in March, which also ended the seven-year-old yield curve control framework, as part of its policy normalization process.

“The government and the Bank of Japan will continue to work closely together to conduct flexible policy management in response to economic and price developments,” the government said, repeating its recent statements. It expects the BOJ “to achieve the price stability target of 2% in a sustainable and stable manner, while confirming the virtuous cycle between wages and prices, by conducting appropriate monetary policy in light of economic activity, prices and financial conditions.”

The two parties “will completely overcome deflation and help guide the economy move on to a new growth-oriented stage,” the government said, suggesting it is still concerned about the downside risk that inflation may fail to be backed by sustained wage hikes.

This month, the yen has regained most of its lost ground for the year, quoted at around ¥146, on market expectations that the BOJ was set to raise its short-term interest rate target more often than previously believed, although it would be still at a snail’s pace compared to other major economies.

Governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters on July 31 that a “gradual” pace of rate hikes at an early stage is better than jacking up interest rates later when upside risks to inflation materialize, and that BOJ policymakers don’t consider 0.5% a ceiling for the policy rate, which is still far below the zone that can be regarded as neutral to economic activity (one board member believes the terminal rate is 1% at the lowest).

In an Aug. 7 speech, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida sought to calm jittery investors by saying rate hikes in Japan are different in nature compared to those in Europe and North America. “Japan’s economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace,” he said. “Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable.”

In July, the dollar hit a fresh 38-year high above ¥161.70 but it has eased to around ¥154 on stealth yen-buying invention on July 11 and 12 by the Ministry of Finance that took advantage of US CPI data for June showing easing inflation. The data prompted some dollar selling on the notion that the Fed may lower interest rates in September.

As for overseas economies, the government maintained its overall assessment after downgrading it for the first time in 18 months, only a month after upgrading it for the first time in 13 months. “The world economy is picking up, although it is pausing in some regions.”

The government maintained its view on the Chinese economy after downgrading it for the first time in 11 months in July, saying, “The economy is pausing even though there is an increase in supply thanks to the effects of policy measures.”

It regards the U.S. economy as “expanding” while noting the Eurozone is “picking up” and upgrading its view on the UK, saying it is “picking up,” instead of “showing signs of a pickup.”

Key points from the monthly report:

The government upgraded its assessment of private consumption, which accounts for about 55% of the gross domestic product, for the first time in 15 months, saying it is “picking up while weakness remains in some areas.” Previously, it said the pickup in consumption was “stalling.”

Real household spending posted its second straight year-over-year drop in June, down 1.4%, but excluding volatile factors like home maintenance and car purchases, the core reading marked its first increase in 16 months, up 1.3%, as the killer heat wave boosted demand for air conditioners and refrigerators, data released this month by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed.

An unusually late start to the rainy season in many regions also propped up demand for beverages, snacks, eating out and summer clothing. The rare rise in the core measure of real average household spending (excluding housing, motor vehicles and remittance), a key indicator used in GDP calculation, followed a 3.4% dip in May and no growth in April.

The BOJ’s supply-side consumption activity index rebounded 0.8% on the month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.5% in May and rising 1.1% in April. The index rose 0.8% in the April-June period compared to the January-March quarter, when it fell 0.8% on quarter. Figures exclude inbound tourism consumption but include outbound tourism spending.

The government maintained its assessment of exports after downgrading it for the first time in six months in July, saying they are “largely flat.” The index of export volumes rose a seasonally adjusted 1.3% on the month in July after rising 2.1% in June and falling 4.2% in May, according to the Cabinet Office.

Japanese export values rose 10.3% for the eighth straight year-over-year increase in July, led by solid demand for semiconductors, automobiles and semiconductor-making equipment from the U.S. and Asia, accelerating from a 5.4% gain in June and overcoming continued sluggish shipments of some of those goods to Europe, data released last week by the Ministry of Finance showed.

Shipments to China, a key export market for Japanese goods, posted their eighth straight increase thanks to demand for semiconductor-making equipment and autos, while the Japanese government has expressed concerns over the slow progress in China’s recovery from its property market problems. Japanese exports to the European Union fell on year for the fourth straight month, hit by lingering sluggish demand for automobiles and production machinery, although shipments of iron and steel rebounded. Exports to the U.S. remain robust, up for the 34th straight month on autos and auto parts, after hitting a record high amount in December 2023.

The government also maintained its assessment of industrial production after upgrading it for the first time in 12 months in May, saying factory output “is showing signs of a pickup.”

Japan’s industrial production slipped a seasonally adjusted 4.2% (revised down from a 3.6% dip) on the month in June, giving up all of the sharp 3.6% rebound in May, hit by more revelations of false safety test records in June, this time at Toyota Motor itself, instead of its subsidiaries, as well as at other major automakers, revised data released earlier this month by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed.

The METI’s survey of producers indicated that output is expected to rise 4.0% in July after adjustment for its upward bias, led by a rebound in production machinery and electronic parts/devices, before rising a further 0.7% in August on higher output of electric and information communications equipment which may include lithium-ion rechargeable batteries.

Other details:

The government’s assessment of key components of the economy in the monthly economic report:

* Private consumption is “picking up while weakness remains in some areas” vs. the pickup in private consumption is “stalling” (the first upgrade in 15 months; last upgraded in May 2023; downgraded in February 2024).

* Business investment is “showing signs of a pickup” (unchanged; upgraded in March 2024; downgraded in November 2023).

* Housing construction is “largely flat” vs. “in a weak tone” (the first upgrade in 26 months; last upgraded in June 2022; downgraded in September 2023).

* Public investment is “solid” (unchanged; upgraded in July 2024; downgraded in June 2024).

* Exports are “largely flat” (unchanged; upgraded in August 2023; downgraded in July 2024).

* Imports are “largely flat” (unchanged: upgraded in May 2024; downgraded in March 2024).

* Industrial production is “showing signs of a pickup” (unchanged; upgraded in May 2024; downgraded in February 2024).

* Corporate profits are “improving as a whole” (unchanged; upgraded in September 2023; downgraded in March 2023).

* Business sentiment is “improving” (unchanged; upgraded in December 2023; downgraded in March 2022).

* The number of bankruptcies “has been rising” (unchanged; upgraded in March 2021; downgraded in April 2023).

* Employment conditions are “showing signs of improvement” (unchanged; upgraded in June 2023; downgraded in May 2020).

* Domestic corporate goods prices “have been rising at a moderate pace” (unchanged; last changed in May 2024).

* Consumer prices “have been rising at a moderate pace” (unchanged: upgraded in May 2022; downgraded in March 2020).

Source: MaceNews

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