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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SOURCE
SPX
S&P 500 Index
7656.97
7656.97
7656.97
7677.02
7636.75
+65.28
+ 0.86%
--
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
52573.29
52573.29
52573.29
52720.24
52204.46
+509.19
+ 0.98%
--
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
26333.03
26333.03
26333.03
26431.22
26283.11
+251.31
+ 0.96%
--
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
99.080
99.080
99.160
0.000
0
0.000
0.00%
--
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.15447
1.15447
1.15454
1.15965
1.15429
-0.00525
-0.45%
--
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.34911
1.34911
1.34921
1.35280
1.34860
-0.00339
-0.25%
--
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4312.68
4312.68
4313.09
4355.21
4307.83
-36.38
-0.84%
--
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
98.826
98.826
98.856
99.615
98.110
+2.252
+ 2.33%
--
--

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London Metal Exchange (LME): Copper Inventories Increased By 8,425 Tons, Zinc Inventories Decreased By 25 Tons, Nickel Inventories Increased By 12 Tons, Lead Inventories Decreased By 1,500 Tons, Tin Inventories Decreased By 80 Tons, And Aluminum Inventories Decreased By 250 Tons

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Shell Executives: To Date, The World Has Lost Approximately 36 Million Tons Of Liquefied Natural Gas From The Middle East

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Sources Say Missiles Struck Three Iranian Kurdish Opposition Camps In Iraq's Kurdish Region, Causing No Injuries

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New York Silver Futures Fell 2.00% On The Day, Currently Trading At $63.72 Per Ounce

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Spot Gold Touched $4,310 Per Ounce, Down 0.87% On The Day, While Spot Silver Fell 1.9% To $63.22 Per Ounce

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Central Bank: As Of The End Of July, The Outstanding Balance Of Commercial Paper Across The Market Had Declined By 20% From Its Peak

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Foreign Ministry: China Willing To Strengthen Technological Cooperation With BRICS Countries And Deepen Industrial Alignment

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ECB Governing Council Member Simkus: We Do Not Rule Out The Possibility Of Taking Action At Any Meeting

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ECB Governing Council Member Simkus: The ECB Must Also Pay Attention To Energy Prices Before Its October Meeting

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ECB Governing Council Member Simkus: December Is A Natural Time To Further Assess The Situation

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MIIT: Support Large Enterprises In Refinancing Accounts Payable Through Loans And Bond Issuance

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Iran Responds To Allegations Of "involvement In Attacks On Saudi Oil Pipelines": Completely Unfounded

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Iran: Iran Has Not Been Isolated

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Both WTI And Brent Crude Oil Prices Rallied Briefly Again, With WTI Crude Rising 2.82% To $99.33 And Brent Crude Rising More Than 3% To $104.72

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Spot Silver Fell $1.00 During The Day, Currently Trading At $63.46 Per Ounce, A Drop Of 1.55%

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Iranian Ministry Of Foreign Affairs: Policy On The Strait Of Hormuz Will Not Be Swayed By "external Forces"

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PBOC: Large Enterprises Passing Financing Costs To SMEs Hinders Monetary Policy Transmission

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Iran's Foreign Ministry: The United States Is Spreading False Information In An Attempt To Escalate Regional Tensions

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Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: Reports About Iran's Nuclear Activities At Ghoshul Are Baseless

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Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The Guarantee Of Navigational Safety Must Be Implemented Equally For All Countries

TIME
ACT
FCST
PREV
IMPACT
India Deposit Gowth YoY

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XAUUSD
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Brazil CPI YoY (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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  • WTI
  • USDX
Mexico Industrial Output YoY (Jul)

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XAUUSD
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U.S. Core CPI YoY (Not SA) (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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U.S. Core CPI MoM (SA) (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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  • USDX
U.S. Core CPI (SA) (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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  • WTI
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U.S. CPI MoM (SA) (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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  • WTI
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U.S. CPI YoY (Not SA) (Aug)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
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  • WTI
  • USDX
U.S. CPI MoM (Not SA) (Aug)

A:--

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
U.S. Real Income MoM (SA) (Aug)

A:--

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
Germany Current Account (Not SA) (Jul)

A:--

F: --

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EURUSD
  • EURUSD
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
Russia Trade Balance (Jul)

A:--

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WTI
  • WTI
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • USDX
U.S. UMich Consumer Expectations Index Prelim (Sept)

A:--

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
U.S. UMich Current Economic Conditions Index Prelim (Sept)

A:--

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
U.S. UMich Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim (Sept)

A:--

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
U.S. UMich 1-Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Prelim (Sept)

A:--

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
U.S. 5-10 Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations (Sept)

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XAUUSD
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
U.S. Cleveland Fed CPI MoM (Aug)

A:--

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
Russia CPI YoY (Aug)

A:--

F: --

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WTI
  • WTI
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • USDX
U.S. Weekly Total Oil Rig Count

A:--

F: --

P: --

WTI
  • WTI
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • USDX
U.S. Weekly Total Rig Count

A:--

F: --

P: --

WTI
  • WTI
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • USDX
ECB Chief Economist Lane Speaks
U.S. Budget Balance (Aug)

A:--

F: --

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USDX
  • USDX
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
China, Mainland Social Financing Scale (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

China, Mainland M0 Money Supply YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

China, Mainland M1 Money Supply YoY (Aug)

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F: --

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China, Mainland M2 Money Supply YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

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Japan Industrial Output Final YoY (Jul)

A:--

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USDJPY
  • USDJPY
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
Japan Industrial Output Final MoM (Jul)

A:--

F: --

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USDJPY
  • USDJPY
  • XAUUSD
  • XAGUSD
  • WTI
  • USDX
China, Mainland Outstanding Loans Growth YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

India CPI YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada National Economic Confidence Index

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing Inventory MoM (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI MoM (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada CPI YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Core CPI YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Trimmed CPI YoY (SA) (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing Unfilled Orders MoM (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Manufacturing New Orders MoM (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Core CPI MoM (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

China, Mainland Urban Area Unemployment Rate (Aug)

--

F: --

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China, Mainland Industrial Output YoY (YTD) (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Unemployment Claimant Count (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. 3-Month ILO Employment Change (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. 3-Month ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul)

--

F: --

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U.K. Unemployment Rate (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Saudi Arabia CPI YoY (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Average Weekly Earnings (3-Month Average, Excluding Bonuses) YoY (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

U.K. Average Weekly Earnings (3-Month Average, Including Bonuses) YoY (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

France HICP Final MoM (Aug)

--

F: --

P: --

Canada Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug)

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F: --

P: --

Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sept)

--

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Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sept)

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Germany ZEW Current Conditions Index (Sept)

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Euro Zone ZEW Current Conditions Index (Sept)

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Euro Zone Trade Balance (SA) (Jul)

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Euro Zone Trade Balance (Not SA) (Jul)

--

F: --

P: --

Germany 2-Year Schatz Auction Avg. Yield

--

F: --

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Euro Zone Total Reserve Assets (Aug)

--

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P: --

Q&A with Experts
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    SlowBear ⛅ flag
    susan
    i am new here
    @susanWelcome to the room bro, When did you strat trading bro?
    EuroTrader flag
    susan
    i am new here
    @susanhi Susan..Good to have you here. Are you a new trader also?
    SlowBear ⛅ flag
    sanjeev
    @SlowBear ⛅ bro UAE got the befit of being in indian camp saudi being in porky camp will face more music
    @sanjeevThis is driving the Oil market straight to the mooon and i do not see the Trump usual statement having that much effect like it used to.
    Dollar Reaper flag
    EuroTrader
    @Dollar Reaper Today i would be looking at Eurusd, gold and Bitcoin and I'll be a bear in Bitcoin and gold
    @EuroTraderGood, But you always cheat man😂 Damn
    EuroTrader flag
    Dollar Reaper
    @EuroTraderGood, But you always cheat man😂 Damn
    @Dollar Reaper lollll tell me. How do I always cheat? i always cheat the markets or who am I cheating here 🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂
    sanjeev flag
    SlowBear ⛅
    @sanjeev yes i hope the BRICS are better options, cos the world need some leaders that really just want to build and lead right Even if it is communism, cos at this point, Democrazy and freedom fighthers are the enemy of the world
    @SlowBear ⛅ 50 percent of world population and 40 percent of world gdp is brics.and latest IMF report says india is expected to grow at 7.8 percent and would be the growth engine of world.no doubt why after threatening too much with increase in tariff USA officials are busy preaping special trade plan for india.
    SlowBear ⛅ flag
    sanjeev
    @SlowBear ⛅ 50 percent of world population and 40 percent of world gdp is brics.and latest IMF report says india is expected to grow at 7.8 percent and would be the growth engine of world.no doubt why after threatening too much with increase in tariff USA officials are busy preaping special trade plan for india.
    @sanjeev Yes i read that the G7cummulative GDP is $57T Brics nations GDP us roughtly $38T so the gap is not that much considering how the US is busy dong business with the rest of th world, things could change very fast
    SlowBear ⛅ flag
    sanjeev
    @SlowBear ⛅ 50 percent of world population and 40 percent of world gdp is brics.and latest IMF report says india is expected to grow at 7.8 percent and would be the growth engine of world.no doubt why after threatening too much with increase in tariff USA officials are busy preaping special trade plan for india.
    @sanjeevYou get the point, if the US drive Gernamy abd Canada off the G7 Coalition and they could summou up courage and join Putin and the rest of the boys at Brics that would change the world order fster than i can click send button
    EuroTrader flag
    sanjeev
    @SlowBear ⛅ 50 percent of world population and 40 percent of world gdp is brics.and latest IMF report says india is expected to grow at 7.8 percent and would be the growth engine of world.no doubt why after threatening too much with increase in tariff USA officials are busy preaping special trade plan for india.
    @sanjeevYou are really optimistic about the brics and it looks like they are really gonna shape the world in a positive way
    3DX cheetah flag
    EuroTrader flag
    3DX cheetah
    @3DX cheetahMachala cheetah is awake, how are you doing this new week .ready to cook the markets and give the markets a run for it's money
    3DX cheetah flag
    3DX cheetah flag
    EuroTrader
    @3DX cheetahMachala cheetah is awake, how are you doing this new week .ready to cook the markets and give the markets a run for it's money
    @EuroTraderoga
    3DX cheetah flag
    3DX cheetah
    @EuroTraderoga
    salut thee
    EuroTrader flag
    3DX cheetah
    @EuroTraderoga
    @3DX cheetahGreetings brother, there is lots of money to be made in the markets this week .hope you have your target set
    3DX cheetah flag
    EuroTrader
    @3DX cheetahGreetings brother, there is lots of money to be made in the markets this week .hope you have your target set
    @EuroTradermy target is money. as long as I can make
    EuroTrader flag
    3DX cheetah
    @EuroTradermy target is money. as long as I can make
    @3DX cheetahexactly right? the goal is to make money no matter the size of the amount we actually make at the end of the week o
    sanjeev flag
    sanjeev
    @Saka the Gunners bro one tgt at a time. let 4317 break then 4293/ 4293 breaks then definately towards 4250 to 4244
    4517 breaks and low 4310.expectation 4293. .4293 breaks then
    EuroTrader flag
    EuroTrader flag
    EuroTrader
    @3DX cheetahi.qm priming some nice shorts on Bitcoin and this is gonna be a really strong scalp shorts on Bitcoin
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          The Macroeconomic Effects of Liquidity Supply During Financial Crises

          CEPR

          Economic

          Summary:

          This column introduces the notion of pessimism in a real business cycle model. The possibility of waves of pessimism generates countercyclical demand from banks for liquid assets, such as bank reserves.

          Banks’ funding inflows and outflows can be volatile. They therefore keep a buffer of liquid assets, including bank reserves, on their balance sheets to ensure they can cope with high outflows without having to either borrow at an expensive interest rate (Bianchi and Bigio 2022) or sell illiquid assets (Drechsler et al. 2018). But can we think of episodes such as the global financial crisis as being the result of unluckily high funding outflows hitting banks?
          In a recent paper (Porcellacchia and Sheedy 2024), we model the source of volatility in bank funding. To do so, we adopt the viewpoint of a literature started by Diamond and Dybvig (1983): banks are vulnerable to waves of pessimism that might trigger a bank run. Pessimism about banks is self-fulfilling because it reduces their access to funding, forcing them to sell illiquid assets at a loss. This, in turn, confirms investors’ pessimistic expectations about banks’ financial performance. The possibility of self-fulfilling pessimism poses a coordination problem for investors in bank assets. But what is it that makes investors coordinate on pessimism?
          Goldstein and Pauzner (2005) show that, under a minor deviation from perfect information, banks’ balance sheet fundamentals determine the likelihood of pessimism arising. This is the approach we take to the coordination problem. We find that pessimism is more likely to hit banks with small liquidity buffers because they are more fragile, so a small number of pessimistic investors is enough to force such a bank to sell illiquid assets and start the vicious cycle of self-fulfilling pessimism. To guard against this, banks increase their demand for liquid assets to reduce their fragility and stem waves of pessimism.

          The mechanics of pessimism

          Adverse economic shocks are a driver of waves of pessimism in the model. This is because banks’ net worth – the difference between the value of their assets and debt liabilities – plays a similar role to their liquidity buffers in determining fragility, and banks’ net worth is highly exposed to the performance of the economy. In other words, banks with low net worth are more likely to be caught in a wave of pessimism, and in bad times banks make losses that reduce their net worth. This is in line with a common narrative about the events that unfolded during the global financial crisis: banks began finding it hard to obtain funding after an unexpected collapse in house prices that reduced their net worth.
          An increase in the likelihood of pessimism raises banks’ funding costs and hence amplifies the macroeconomic effects of shocks to the economy. Investment in the economy is crucially dependent on bank credit. If banks are starved of funds as a result of pessimism, they supply less credit and so investment takes a hit. Quantitatively, pessimism increases the effect on economic output of a shock to the value of bank assets by about one-third on impact. Pessimism also makes the effects of shocks last longer. This propagation of shocks through time is due to the negative impact of more expensive funding on banks’ return on equity. With a low return on equity, it takes a long time for banks to build their net worth back up.
          In the model, banks respond to adverse economic shocks by increasing their demand for liquid assets in an attempt to reduce their fragility and thereby stem pessimism. Unless the supply of liquid assets is perfectly elastic, this behaviour means that the prices of liquid assets increase in bad times. Evidence for this behaviour is provided in the left panel of Figure 1, which plots interest rate spreads during the global financial crisis. In this period both the funding spread, which measures funding costs for banks, and the liquidity premium, which measures the cost of holding liquid assets, were very high. The right panel shows that expensive bank funding is generally associated with expensive liquidity, suggesting that this mechanism operates broadly, not just in financial crises.
          The Macroeconomic Effects of Liquidity Supply During Financial Crises_1

          Liquidity policy

          The role of policy in the model is to supply liquid assets, such as bank reserves. So we can use our framework to analyse the macroeconomic effects of liquidity policy. We find that an expansion in the supply of liquid assets is beneficial in the short run because it boosts banks’ liquidity buffers. This makes pessimism less likely and thereby reduces the cost of funding for banks. Lower funding costs are passed through in the form of lower bank lending rates, thus increasing investment and GDP. Figure 2 shows the effects of a persistent increase in the supply of liquid assets that reduces the liquidity premium by 15 basis points on impact and is slowly unwound over time. On impact, the funding spread is reduced by 30 basis points, leading to an increase in investment of about 2%.
          The Macroeconomic Effects of Liquidity Supply During Financial Crises_2
          We provide empirical evidence for the effectiveness of liquidity policy by studying the causal effect of the liquidity premium on banks’ funding spread. The positive correlation between the liquidity premium and the funding spread in the right panel of Figure 1 is not evidence of causality because the liquidity premium is not an independent random variable. To deal with this endogeneity problem, we use data on US Treasuries, a key liquid asset. Crucially, US Treasuries are issued after their auction with a lag of a few days. Hence, their outstanding quantity is predetermined at daily frequency and cannot possibly react either to the funding spread or to other drivers of the funding spread. With this in mind, we use the stock of outstanding US Treasuries as an instrument for the liquidity premium, essentially narrowing our focus to daily variation in the liquidity premium induced by changes in the outstanding stock of US Treasuries. And we find a significant positive effect, suggesting that the liquidity premium is indeed a causal driver of banks’ funding costs.
          The model implies that it is beneficial to supply public liquidity, such as bank reserves, elastically. When an adverse shock hits the economy, banks come under stress. Their demand for liquid assets increases, thereby pushing up the liquidity premium. By supplying extra bank reserves in response to this, the central bank can contribute to the stabilisation of the economy.

          Conclusion

          An important literature in finance formalises the idea that banks are exposed to the risk of bank runs. We take the methods described in the literature and adapt them so that bank runs can be integrated into a standard model used to study business cycles. This allows us to study the role of run risk in amplifying and propagating the business cycle and the role of policy in dampening it.
          In this column, we focus on liquidity policy, but there are more dimensions of policy that we can study with our framework. The discount window, through which the central bank acts as the lender of last resort, and deposit insurance are important policies for financial stability and we analyse the effects of these in the paper.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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