Research In Focus: Trump Sets Clear Tone On Energy Policy

Summary:

President Trump’s first-day executive orders on energy policy mark a clear shift toward deregulation and fossil fuel support, but their impact on prices and production remains uncertain.

Key actions include lifting the pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits, expediting energy project approvals on federal lands, and temporarily halting offshore wind development. The administration also raised the possibility of tightening sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, implementing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports, and refilling the SPR.

Investor Takeaways

Production incentives

While these moves create a more favorable environment for oil and gas producers, it is unlikely that we will see a significant increase in U.S. production in the short term. Energy companies have signaled they won’t allocate additional capital just because of a friendlier regulatory environment, which means economics will still drive investment decisions. The U.S. onshore production sector has reached an efficient steady state, and companies appear reluctant to disrupt this balance with aggressive growth plans.

That said, the natural gas sector could see benefits from deregulation through increased export permits and pipeline development. For example, companies operating in constrained basins, like Appalachian gas producers, may find new opportunities for market expansion.

Price pressures

Multiple policies could contribute to inflationary pressures in the oil market. Plans to refill the SPR would increase demand for crude, potentially pushing prices higher. Additionally, the possibility of tightening sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, along with proposed tariffs on imported Canadian and Mexican oil, could constrain supply, further driving up costs.

In particular, proposed tariffs on Canadian oil imports could significantly affect Midwest consumers because refineries in that region are optimized for Canadian heavy crude. The tariffs would force either Canadian producers to accept lower prices or U.S. refiners to pay more for Canadian oil. Consumers would ultimately bear these higher costs through increased prices for refined products, conflicting with the administration’s goal of lowering gasoline prices.

Clean energy outlook

The administration’s pause on Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and infrastructure law funding introduces uncertainty for clean energy investments. However, this move doesn’t signal a complete policy reversal. Many renewable projects are concentrated in Republican-led states, providing some political protection against a full repeal. Additionally, the IRA supports domestic manufacturing and the concept of domestic energy independence.

Looking ahead, EV subsidies face the greatest risk, while onshore solar and broader infrastructure development may remain relatively insulated. Utilities continue to view renewables as an important part of the future power mix, alongside natural gas and potentially nuclear, to meet growing electricity demand from data centers servicing artificial intelligence customers.

Offshore wind developers face clear U.S. headwinds, but opportunities remain in international markets. The executive order temporarily halting offshore wind developments was largely expected, but this move formalizes the administration’s stance. That said, its impact may be limited because many projects were already facing economic headwinds.

Regulatory relief

The order to expedite federal land approvals could streamline traditionally slow processes, particularly benefiting operations in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, and New Mexico’s Permian Basin. However, companies may direct cost savings toward debt reduction or shareholder returns rather than increased drilling.

Smaller operators stand to gain more from deregulation than larger corporations that have the resources to manage complex regulations. Meanwhile, the rollback of vehicle emission standards could support sustained gasoline demand, benefiting refiners and traditional automakers by slowing the transition to alternative fuels.

Key uncertainties remain

For energy investors, these policies suggest a potentially favorable environment for traditional oil and gas companies, particularly those operating on federal lands, where regulatory costs are declining. However, the ultimate impact on profitability will depend heavily on oil prices, which face competing pressures from various Trump policies.

The key unknown remains how the administration will reconcile potentially inflationary policies with the goal of lower consumer prices. This tension, along with uncertainty about tariff implementation, could drive market volatility in the coming months.

Source: Janus Henderson

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Economics is the study of how individuals, businesses, and governments allocate resources. Within this broad discipline, economics is divided into two main branches: microeconomics and macroeconomics.

While both fields analyze economic behavior, they focus on different aspects of the economy. In this article, we’ll explore the key differences, real-world applications, and how each field impacts decision-making for individuals, businesses, and governments.

1. What is Microeconomics?

Microeconomics is the study of individual economic units, such as consumers, businesses, and markets. It examines how these units make decisions based on limited resources and how their interactions determine prices and output levels.

Key Concepts in Microeconomics:

✔ Supply and Demand – How prices are determined by consumer demand and business supply.

✔ Consumer Behavior – How individuals make purchasing decisions based on income, preferences, and price changes.

✔ Market Structures – Different types of markets, including perfect competition, monopoly, oligopoly, and monopolistic competition.

✔ Production and Costs – How businesses decide on production levels based on cost structures and profit maximization.

✔ Elasticity – Measures how changes in price affect demand and supply.

Examples of Microeconomics in Action:

A coffee shop deciding how much to charge for lattes based on local competition.Consumers choosing between iPhones and Android devices based on price and features.Uber adjusting ride fares based on demand and supply of drivers.

Microeconomics helps individuals and businesses make informed financial decisions by understanding pricing, competition, and resource allocation.

2. What is Macroeconomics?

Macroeconomics focuses on the overall economy, analyzing large-scale economic factors such as GDP growth, inflation, employment, and government policies.

Key Concepts in Macroeconomics:

✔ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy.

✔ Inflation and Deflation – The rise or fall in general price levels and its impact on purchasing power.

✔ Unemployment Rates – The percentage of people without jobs and its effects on economic stability.

✔ Monetary and Fiscal Policy – How central banks and governments influence economic growth through interest rates, taxes, and government spending.

✔ Trade and Exchange Rates – How international trade affects a country’s economy and currency value.

Examples of Macroeconomics in Action:

The U.S. Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates to control inflation.

A government introducing stimulus packages to boost the economy during a recession.The impact of global oil prices on inflation and consumer spending.

Macroeconomics helps policymakers and economists understand broad economic trends and create strategies to promote stability and growth.

4. How Microeconomics and Macroeconomics Interact

Although microeconomics and macroeconomics focus on different levels of analysis, they are interconnected: Microeconomic decisions influence macroeconomic trends.

For example, if many consumers stop spending, businesses make less money, leading to slower GDP growth. Macroeconomic factors impact microeconomic behavior.

High inflation can reduce consumer purchasing power, affecting individual businesses and their pricing strategies. Government policies affect both.

A tax cut (macro) can increase disposable income, leading to higher consumer spending (micro).

Understanding both fields is essential for making informed financial, business, and policy decisions.

5. Why Understanding Both Matters

For Individuals:

Helps consumers make better spending, saving, and investment decisions.

For Businesses:

Aids companies in setting prices, analyzing competition, and forecasting demand.

For Governments:

Assists policymakers in creating laws that stabilize the economy and promote growth.

Final Thoughts

Microeconomics and macroeconomics are two sides of the same coin, each providing valuable insights into how economies function. While microeconomics focuses on individual choices and business strategies, macroeconomics looks at the bigger picture, shaping policies that affect entire nations.

By understanding both, you’ll be better equipped to navigate financial decisions, market trends, and economic policies—whether as a consumer, investor, or policymaker.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Glendon

Economic

Robinhood has revolutionized investing by making commission-free trading accessible to millions of retail investors. However, with its rapid growth and past controversies, many traders and investors wonder: Is Robinhood safe?

In this article, we’ll examine Robinhood’s security measures, regulatory compliance, potential risks, and user experiences to determine whether it’s a safe investment platform.

1. How Secure Is Robinhood?

Robinhood uses several security measures to protect user accounts and data.

a) Encryption & Security Features

Robinhood implements bank-grade encryption to secure user data. Key security measures include:

Two-Factor Authentication (2FA) – Adds an extra layer of security to prevent unauthorized access.

Biometric Login – Users can log in with Face ID or fingerprint authentication on mobile devices.

Encryption of Sensitive Data – Personal and financial information is encrypted to prevent data breaches.

b) Protection of Funds

Robinhood is a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), which protects user funds up to $500,000 (including $250,000 for cash claims) in case of brokerage failure. Additionally, Robinhood partners with FDIC-insured banks to safeguard uninvested cash.

2. Is Robinhood Regulated?

Robinhood is regulated by top financial authorities in the U.S.:

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) – Ensures compliance with securities laws.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – Oversees Robinhood’s trading activities.

SIPC Membership – Protects users from broker insolvency.

While Robinhood meets regulatory standards, the platform has faced regulatory scrutiny and fines in the past.

3. Robinhood's Controversies & Risks

Despite its popularity, Robinhood has been involved in several controversies that raise concerns about its safety.

a) Trading Restrictions & the GameStop Controversy

In January 2021, Robinhood restricted trading on GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) stocks, angering many investors. The company cited liquidity issues, but critics accused Robinhood of prioritizing hedge funds over retail traders. This event raised concerns about Robinhood’s transparency and reliability.

b) Cybersecurity Breaches

In November 2021, Robinhood suffered a data breach affecting nearly 5 million customers. While no financial losses occurred, the breach exposed user emails and phone numbers, highlighting potential security risks.

c) High-Frequency Trading & Payment for Order Flow (PFOF)

Robinhood makes money by selling trade orders to market makers through Payment for Order Flow (PFOF). Critics argue that this model may lead to poorer trade execution for users, potentially costing investors money.

d) Limited Customer Support

Robinhood historically lacked phone customer support, frustrating users who faced account issues or suspicious activity. However, they have since improved support options, offering live phone support for urgent issues.

4. Is Robinhood a Safe Platform for Investing?

Robinhood is safe in terms of regulatory compliance and cybersecurity, but there are some risks to consider:

Pros:

✔ Regulated by FINRA & SEC

✔ SIPC protection for up to $500,000

✔ Strong encryption & security measures

✔ Commission-free trading & user-friendly app

Cons:

❌ Past trading restrictions (e.g., GameStop incident)

❌ Cybersecurity breaches in the past

❌ Relies on Payment for Order Flow (PFOF)

❌ Limited advanced trading tools for professionals

5. Who Should (and Shouldn’t) Use Robinhood?

Best for:

Beginners, casual investors, and those looking for commission-free stock and options trading.

Not ideal for:

Advanced traders, long-term investors seeking robust research tools, and those concerned about order execution quality.

Final Verdict: Is Robinhood Safe?

Robinhood is a legitimate, regulated brokerage with industry-standard security features. However, its past controversies—such as trading restrictions, cybersecurity breaches, and reliance on PFOF—raise concerns for some investors.

If you’re a beginner looking for an easy-to-use trading platform, Robinhood can be a great option. But for more serious investors, platforms with better execution quality and fewer controversies may be a safer bet.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Manuel

Commodity

Crude prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. tariffs on China took effect and Beijing retaliated with its own measures, heightening trade war fears, while U.S. President Trump delayed steep levies on Canada and Mexico for a month.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $2.03, or 2.77%, at $71.13 a barrel by 1400 GMT while Brent futures lost $1.41, or 1.86%, to $74.55.

China's Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% on U.S. coal and LNG, as well as 10% on crude oil, farm equipment and the small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States.

Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may dampen demand for oil, leading to continued pressure on prices.

"The tit-for-tat measures out from China may not stop at just the 10% tariffs on crude oil from the U.S., which can also see a deliberate attempt to weaken the yuan if the U.S. fires back with more tariffs on China exports to the U.S.," said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA.

"Overall such actions are likely to give rise to a stronger U.S. dollar that in turn weakens ... oil prices given that OPEC+ members are still on track to increase oil supply gradually from April."

China's 2024 crude oil imports from the United States accounted for 1.7% of its total crude imports, customs data shows.

China's counter-tariffs could be perceived as a sign of escalation and reduce the likelihood of a temporary resolution akin to U.S. agreements with Mexico and Canada, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement efforts in response to Trump's demand to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling.

That would pause for 30 days U.S. tariffs of 25% on the two countries as well as a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, all of which had been set to take effect on Tuesday.

The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Monday to stick to its policy of raising oil output gradually from April.

On the demand side, investors are awaiting U.S. oil stockpile data for the week to Jan. 31. [EIA/S] Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude inventories to have risen but gasoline and distillate inventories are likely to have declined.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Economic

Eurozone Inflation Remains Above Target, Prompting Rate Cut Expectations

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue cutting interest rates in March, as inflation in the Eurozone remains above the 2% target. According to Eurostat, inflation in January 2025 stood at 2.5% year-over-year, slightly above economists' forecast of 2.4%, though down 0.3% from December 2024.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was recorded at 2.7%, marking the fifth consecutive month at elevated levels. Despite the recent decline in headline inflation, persistent core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain strong, reinforcing the need for continued monetary policy adjustments.

Last week, the ECB reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, signaling a shift toward easing monetary policy. Given that inflation has remained stubbornly above target, most analysts anticipate that the ECB will implement another rate cut at its March meeting to support economic growth and ease financial conditions.

Trade War Concerns Could Complicate ECB’s Policy Path

While the ECB appears set to maintain its rate-cutting trajectory, rising concerns over a potential trade conflict with the U.S. could complicate its plans. President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico have disrupted global markets, and speculation is growing that the European Union (EU) may be the next target for U.S. trade restrictions.

If Trump imposes tariffs on European imports, it could exacerbate economic challenges for the Eurozone, increasing input costs for businesses and fueling inflationary pressures. This could force the ECB to reassess the pace and magnitude of its interest rate cuts, as the central bank must balance inflation control with economic stimulus efforts.

Weak Euro Adds Another Layer of Complexity

The weakening euro has further intensified the ECB’s policy dilemma. Over the past week, the euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in over two years, dropping to 1.0141 USD per euro at one point on February 3.

A weaker euro makes imports more expensive, which could further stoke inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. Clemens Fuest, President of Germany’s Ifo Institute, warned that a stronger U.S. dollar may indirectly limit the ECB’s ability to pursue further rate cuts, as depreciation of the euro could worsen trade imbalances and increase import costs.

Market Outlook: Will the ECB Proceed with Rate Cuts?

Despite external risks, market consensus still favors another ECB rate cut in March, given that inflation is gradually declining and the Eurozone economy is showing signs of slowing growth. However, policymakers will need to closely monitor external factors, particularly any U.S. trade actions targeting the EU.

If tariffs on European exports materialize, the ECB could face a more complex scenario, potentially delaying or moderating its rate-cutting strategy. Additionally, if the euro continues to weaken, concerns over import-driven inflation may force the central bank to take a more cautious approach.

For now, investors are watching upcoming economic data and ECB policy signals closely, as the central bank navigates a landscape of softening inflation, geopolitical trade tensions, and currency volatility. The March meeting will be a pivotal moment for the ECB as it seeks to strike the right balance between economic stimulus and inflation control.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

Economic

The European Union wants to engage swiftly with the United States over President Donald Trump's planned tariffs, trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Tuesday, while his boss Ursula von der Leyen stressed the bloc would protect its interests in negotiations.

Sefcovic, speaking before a meeting of EU ministers to debate trade and EU competitiveness, said he wanted "early engagement" and was awaiting confirmation of the appointment of Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary, financier Howard Lutnick.

"We are ready to engage immediately and we hope that through this early engagement, we can avoid the measures which would bring a lot of disturbance to the most important trade and investment relationship on this planet," he told reporters.

Von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said the EU executive's first priority was to work on the many areas where EU and U.S. interests converge, such as critical supply chains and emerging technologies.

In a speech in Brussels, she said the EU was ready for tough negotiations to work out grievances and set the foundations for a stronger partnership.

"We will be open and pragmatic in how to achieve that. But we will make it equally clear that we will always protect our own interests – however and whenever that is needed," Von der Leyen said.

EU officials say contacts with the Trump administration have been limited so far, noting that Trump's picks for top jobs are not able to speak to foreign counterparts until their positions have been confirmed. Von der Leyen and Trump have not been in contact since Trump's inauguration.

The EU meeting in Warsaw started just a few hours after additional U.S. tariffs of 10% on Chinese goods took effect, prompting China to hit back. Canada and Mexico were also in line for 25% U.S. tariffs on Tuesday, but each secured a 30-day pause.

Trump has said the European Union is next in line. He has repeatedly complained about the U.S. trade deficit with the 27-country EU.

Sefcovic said that deficit, including services trade, was around 50 billion euros, or around 3% of overall annual EU-U.S. trade of 1.5 trillion euros, while 4 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic were reliant on this open trading relationship.

"We believe through constructive engagement and discussion we can resolve this problem," he said.

Sefcovic did not go into how the bloc might negotiate, but some ministers offered advice on the EU approach.

Luxembourg foreign minister Xavier Bettel, who was prime minister during Trump's first term, said the EU needed to be united and strong and not begin negotiations with concessions.

"This is not the Marrakech souk," he said. "We don't offer. We listen, we exchange, we say things. We don't offer."

Irish trade minister Peter Burke also said it was not worthwhile at this point to make offers.

Source: Reuters

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin dropped below $100,000 on Feb. 4 as fresh trade war fears punctured a snap rebound. US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_1

US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_1

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price comeback sours on fresh tariff woes

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reversing about 3% after the daily open.

Markets had surged on news that US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed by a month, along with President Donald Trump signing an executive order to create a first-of-its-kind sovereign wealth fund.

White House cryptocurrency director David Sacks will hold a news conference at 2.30 pm Eastern Time to reveal US digital asset policy details.

“The Trump administration plans to reposition America as the leader in digital assets,” trader Jelle responded in part of an X post on the topic, preparing for a “big day.” US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_2

US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_2

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

After bouncing near $91,500, BTC/USD gained over $10,000 in a single daily candle.

Progress was halted, however, when it emerged that China was retaliating against US tariffs with its own measures targeting oil, coal and more.

“Going to be a volatile day again,” Jelle added.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe agreed that volatility would likely continue.

“Bitcoin bounced back swiftly and is currently acting within the range,” he summarized alongside the daily chart.

“I assume we'll see new ATHs in February and it's quite normal to correct after such a strong bounce. Volatility through the roof, but, as long as Bitcoin remains above $93K, a new ATH is likely.” US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_3

US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_3

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Others, such as trader Phoenix, suggested that BTC/USD would investigate a new short-term range as a result of the volatility.

“After such an event, it feels logical for me to expect some sort of a new range to form,” he said on the day. US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_4

US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_4

BTC/USDT 6-hour chart. Source: Phoenix/X

Funding rates add to rare Bitcoin bull cues

Meanwhile, funding rates across derivatives markets gave Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, cause for celebration.

Funding rates, Adler noted, had printed a key bull signal during Bitcoin’s trip toward $90,000.

“For the seventh time this year, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has turned negative,” he revealed, with the first such instance coming in April 2024.

“All six previous instances signaled a bullish momentum.” US-China Tariffs Cost Bitcoin $100K Mark as Analyst Eyes All-Time High_5