What Is An Iceberg Order, And How Can You Use It For Trading?

FXOpen

Stocks

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Summary:

An iceberg order is a type of execution strategy that hides the full size of a trade by revealing only small portions at a time. Used by institutions and large traders, it helps reduce market impact. Understanding how iceberg orders work, where they’re used, and their risks can help traders more accurately analyse market activity. This article breaks down everything you need to know about iceberg orders and their role in trading.

What Is an Iceberg Order?

An iceberg order is a type of order designed to execute large trades without revealing the full size to the market. Instead of placing one massive position that could disrupt prices, traders split it into smaller portions, with the rest hidden. As each portion gets filled, the next one is placed automatically until the full order is executed.The key feature of this type of entry is that only a fraction—known as the display quantity—is visible in the order book at any given time. The rest remains hidden until it’s gradually revealed. This prevents other traders from immediately recognising the true size of the position, which helps avoid unnecessary market movements.

For example, if a trader wants to buy 50,000 shares of a stock, placing the full position in the market at once could cause prices to rise before execution is complete. Instead, they might set an iceberg order with a display size of 5,000 shares. Once the first 5,000 are bought, another 5,000 are automatically placed, repeating until the full 50,000 are executed.

They’re particularly useful for institutional traders, hedge funds, and high-net-worth individuals who want to build or reduce positions without attracting attention. However, some retail traders also use them when executing relatively large trades in markets that support this execution type. Many major exchanges, including those for equities, forex, and futures, allow icebergs, but their availability depends on the broker and trading platform being used.

How Iceberg Orders Work

Order Execution Process

When a trader places an iceberg order, they specify two key parameters:

● Total size – The full amount they want to buy or sell.

●Display size – The portion that will be visible at any given time.

For example, if a trader wants to buy 20,000 shares but only wants 500 to be visible at a time, the order book will show just 500 shares. Once those are bought, another 500 will appear at the same price (if still available), and the cycle continues until the entire 20,000 shares are filled.

Dynamic Execution

Some trading platforms and institutional brokers use smart order execution algorithms to optimise how these orders are placed. These algorithms might adjust the display size dynamically based on market conditions, ensuring the order gets executed efficiently without drawing too much attention.

Hidden Portions and Order Book Activity

Although most of the order remains hidden, experienced traders and high-frequency algorithms can sometimes detect iceberg levels. If they notice an order constantly refreshing at the same price level without an obvious large sell or buy position, they may infer that an iceberg is in play.

Where Iceberg Orders Are Most Popular

They are most popular in liquid markets where frequent trading activity allows the hidden portions to be executed smoothly. In less liquid markets, there’s a higher risk that the order will be only partially filled or take longer to execute, making alternative execution strategies more practical.

Why Traders Use Iceberg Orders

Iceberg orders help traders hide their full intentions from the market. Here’s why they’re commonly used:

Reducing Market Impact

When a large position enters the market, it can shift prices before the full trade is completed. This is particularly an issue in less liquid markets, where even moderate positions can cause price swings. By splitting a large trade into smaller, hidden chunks, iceberg orders prevent sudden moves that could work against the trader.

Avoiding Slippage

Slippage occurs when an order is executed at a worse price than expected due to market movement. Large trades placed all at once can exhaust available liquidity at the best price levels, forcing later portions to be filled at less favourable prices. Iceberg orders help mitigate this by allowing the trade to be executed gradually without consuming too much liquidity at once.

Maintaining Discretion

Institutions and high-net-worth traders often prefer to keep their trading activity under the radar. If other market participants see a massive buy or sell entry, they may react by adjusting their own strategies, making it harder for the original trader to get a good price. Icebergs keep most of the position hidden, preventing this from happening.

Reducing the Risk of Front-Running

High-frequency trading firms and aggressive traders actively monitor the order book for large transactions. When they spot them, they may enter positions ahead of the large trade, pushing prices in an unfavourable direction. By keeping most of the trade hidden, iceberg entries make it harder for others to exploit this information.

Identifying Iceberg Orders in the Market

Iceberg orders are designed to be discreet, but experienced traders and algorithmic systems can sometimes detect them by analysing order book activity and price movements. Since only a small portion of the total order is visible at any given time, certain patterns can reveal the presence of an iceberg in action.

Order Book Clues

One of the most obvious signs is a persistent order at the same price level. If a bid or ask keeps refreshing with the same quantity after being partially filled, it may indicate that a much larger hidden position is sitting at an iceberg level. This is particularly noticeable in less liquid markets where large trades are more disruptive.

Another telltale sign is a large trade volume without corresponding large visible orders. If significant buying or selling occurs but the order book only displays small entries, there’s a chance that a hidden order is gradually being executed.

Time and Sales Analysis

Traders can also look at time and sales data, which records every transaction. If the same price level repeatedly absorbs multiple trades without depleting, it suggests a hidden order replenishing itself after each execution.

Algorithmic Detection

Some trading algorithms are specifically designed to identify icebergs. These tools scan for patterns in order execution and attempt to infer hidden liquidity. While not always accurate, they can give traders an idea of when institutional activity is taking place.

Risks and Limitations of Iceberg Orders

While iceberg orders can help traders execute large trades discreetly, they are not without drawbacks. Market conditions, execution risks, and the rise of advanced trading algorithms can all impact their effectiveness.

●Incomplete Execution: If market conditions change or liquidity dries up, part of the position may remain unfilled. This is especially problematic in volatile or low-volume markets where price movements can accelerate unexpectedly.

●Detection by Algorithms: Sophisticated trading algorithms actively scan for hidden orders. High-frequency traders (HFTs) may detect it and adjust their strategies, making it harder to execute at a favourable price.

●Increased Trading Costs: Splitting a large entry into multiple smaller ones can lead to higher transaction costs. Exchanges and brokers may charge fees per executed trade, meaning an iceberg entry could end up costing more than a single bulk position.

●Slower Execution in Fast Markets: When markets move quickly, the visible portions of an iceberg might not fill fast enough before the price changes. This can lead to slippage, where later parts of the order get executed at worse prices than intended.

●Limited Availability: Not all brokers or exchanges support icebergs, particularly in smaller or less liquid markets. Some platforms also impose minimum position size requirements, restricting their use for smaller traders.

The Bottom Line

Iceberg orders enable traders to execute large trades discreetly, minimising market impact and enhancing execution quality. While they offer advantages in managing liquidity, they also carry risks such as detection by advanced algorithms and potential slippage. Traders should exercise caution and conduct thorough market analysis.

FAQ

What Is an Iceberg Order?

An iceberg order is a type of order that splits a large trade into smaller visible portions, with the remaining size hidden from the order book. As each visible portion is filled, the next one is automatically placed until the full order is executed. This helps traders avoid moving the market or revealing their full position size.

How Do You Identify an Iceberg Order?

Traders can spot icebergs by looking for repeated small trades at the same price level. If an order keeps refreshing after partial fills without a visible large order in the book, it may indicate hidden liquidity. Time and sales data, as well as algorithmic tools, can help detect these patterns.

What Is the Difference Between an Iceberg Order and a Basket Order?

An iceberg order breaks a single large entry into smaller, hidden parts, while a basket order consists of multiple different trades executed together, often across various assets or instruments. Basket orders are used for portfolio adjustments, whereas iceberg entries focus on reducing market impact.

What Is an Iceberg Order in Crypto*?

In crypto* markets, iceberg entries function the same way as in traditional markets—hiding large trades to prevent price fluctuations. Many exchanges offer this feature, particularly for institutional traders handling large positions.

How Do I Place an Iceberg Order?

Availability depends on the broker or exchange. Traders typically set the total position size and the visible portion, allowing the system to execute the trade in smaller segments.

What Is the Iceberg Order Strategy?

The strategy involves using iceberg orders to accumulate or distribute large positions without drawing attention. It helps reduce slippage, maintain discretion, and avoid triggering unnecessary price movement.

Source: FXOpen

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Michelle

Cryptocurrency

Digital asset investment products saw $1.9 billion in inflows this week, a 15-week run of positive sentiment, as reported by CoinShares. So far in July, inflows have hit $11.2 billion, outpacing the $7.6 billion recorded back in December 2024 after the U.S. election. The United States led the charge with $2 billion, while Germany contributed an additional $70 million. On the flip side, outflows from Hong Kong, Canada, and Brazil totaled $160 million, $84.3 million, and $23.2 million, which somewhat balanced out the demand from the U.S.

In Brief

Ethereum pulled in $1.59B last week as ETF hopes grow, signaling strong investor interest and rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins.
Over $11.2B flowed into digital assets this month alone, led by Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, driven by ETF optimism and U.S. demand.
Confidence in a Ripple ETF hit 98% while ETF launches surged in June, showing investors are betting big on crypto-backed products.

Ethereum Leads as Bitcoin Faces Outflows

Ethereum had its second-strongest weekly performance, with inflows of $1.59 billion. This year, Ethereum inflows have already surpassed all of last year, totaling $7.79 billion. In comparison, Bitcoin had outflows of $175 million during this increase.

Besides Ethereum, large-cap altcoins attracted targeted demand. Solana gained $311 million, while XRP followed with $189 million. SUI added $8 million in inflows. However, inflows tapered beyond these names, with Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash seeing small outflows of $1.2 million and $660,000. Hence, analysts warned that the current momentum does not yet qualify as a broad altcoin season.

ETF Launches Drive Market Sentiment

James Butterfill, Coinshares’ head of research, said investors appear to be tactically positioning ahead of potential U.S. ETF approvals. He noted that flows remain concentrated in a few assets and regions. Moreover, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that ETFs attracted nearly $100 billion in the last month, potentially breaking last year’s record.

Your 1st cryptos with Coinbase This link uses an affiliate program.

June recorded 108 ETF launches, the highest monthly figure ever, and 50% higher than last year’s pace. Nearly a quarter of the 450 ETFs launched in 2025 are leveraged products, 2.5 times the old record. However, Balchunas warned that many of these ETFs may fail to attract assets. Approximately 40% of existing ETFs remain unprofitable with less than $40 million in assets.

Historical data further highlights 2025’s volatility. Monthly launches hit major peaks in January, March, and June, with June’s 108 launches standing out. The trend continues to outperform the five-year historical average of 35–60 monthly launches.

XRP ETF Confidence Surges

Additionally, there was a surge in momentum toward ETFs. According to data released by Amonyx on X, Polymarket indicates a 98% chance of the XRP ETF being approved by December 31, 2025. Compared to 80% earlier in June, this sudden rise in market sentiment may have been brought on by recent regulatory changes.

Consequently, speculation that more large-cap cryptocurrencies may receive inflows is being fueled by anticipation for an XRP ETF. This reinforces the pattern of investors shifting their money from Bitcoin to Ethereum and a few other altcoins.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had extended gains by midday on Tuesday, led higher by Games Workshop and AstraZeneca as investors waded through a deluge of corporate news and continued to mull the impact of the US-EU trade deal.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.7% at 9,144.30.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "The FTSE 100 enjoyed another good start, lifted by positive market reaction to AstraZeneca’s numbers and Games Workshop delivering yet another strong set of results.

"It’s a busy week for corporate earnings in the UK and US, and investors have plenty of news to digest.

"Gains were recorded across all the major European indices, with investors sitting more comfortably after the US/EU trade agreement at the weekend."

On home shores, the latest Money and Credit report from the Bank of England showed that mortgage approvals rose in June.

Net mortgage approvals for house purchases ticked up to 64,200 from 63,300 in May. The figure for May was revised from 63,000. Economists were expecting it to remain broadly unchanged.

Net borrowing of mortgage debt increased by £3.1bn to £5.3bn in June, compared to a £2.8bn increase of net borrowing to £2.2bn in May.

The effective interest rate - the actual interest paid - on newly-drawn mortgages fell for the fourth month in a row, to 4.34% in June from 4.47% in May.

Approvals for remortgaging increased by 200 to 41,800 in June. This marked the highest number of approvals for remortgaging since October 2022, when it was 50,000.

The data also showed that net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals rose to £1.4bn in June from £0.9bn the month before. This was driven up by net borrowing through credit cards, which ticked up to £0.7bn from £0.2bn, while borrowing through other forms of consumer credit was broadly unchanged at £0.7bn.

Households’ deposits with banks and building societies rose by £7.8bn on the month in June, following an increase of £4.3bn in May from April. This was mainly driven by households depositing an additional £3.6bn into ISAs and £1.2bn into interest bearing sight accounts

Earlier, industry data showed that the family shop got more expensive in July as food inflation accelerated for the sixth straight month, with staples under the most pressure as wholesale prices are driven up by global supply problems.

The British Retail Consortium's shop price monitor found that prices at UK tills were 0.7% higher than a year ago in July. That followed 0.4% annual growth in June, a 0.1% increase in May and a 0.1% fall in April.

In equity markets, Games Workshop shot to the top of the FTSE 100 as the Warhammer maker hailed a record full year, posting a 29.5% jump in group pre-tax profit to £262.8m, beating the guidance of not less than £255m given in May.

AstraZeneca rallied as the drug maker’s second-quarter earnings topped expectations.

Entain jumped as full-year revenue guidance for BetMGM - its joint venture with MGM Resorts - was boosted following a stronger-than-expected second quarter.

Shaftesbury advanced as it reported interim growth in rents, earnings, dividends, valuation and EPRA NTA.

Construction and regeneration firm Morgan Sindall rose as it highlighted another record first-half performance and lifted the medium-term targets for both the Fit Out and Construction divisions.

Barclays Bank reversed earlier losses to trade up as it reported a 23% rise in half-year profit and said it would start a £1bn share buyback as market volatility cause by US President Donald Trump's tariffs war boosted income.

Pre-tax profit came in at £5.2bn, while group income rose 12% to £14bn as trading in its global markets division boomed.

On the downside, Croda International, Unite and Inchcape all slumped after results, while Paragon Banking and SSP fell after trading updates.

Greggs lost ground as it reported a 14% drop in first-half pre-tax profit, pinning the blame partly on the weather.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

Strong rally in past three days started to run out of steam on Tuesday, as daily action was so far shaped in long-legged Doji candle that signals indecision.

Bulls show signs of fatigue after retracing over 76.4% of 149.18/145.85 bear-leg and hitting recovery high just under key near-term support at 149.18 (July 16 peak), where the rally faced headwinds.

Overbought daily Stochastic contributes to developing negative signals, but overall picture on daily chart remains firmly bullish, suggesting that consolidation or shallow correction may precede fresh push higher, with probe through 149.18 and 149.53 (200DMA) to expose psychological 150 barrier.

Dips should ideally find support at 147.70/50 zone (10DMA / Fibo 38.2% of 145.85/148.75 upleg) to mark a healthy correction and keep bulls intact.

Res: 148.75; 149.18; 149.53; 150.00.Sup: 148.06; 147.65; 147.50; 147.30.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Cryptocurrency

Economic

What Exactly is the Altcoin Season Index?

The cryptocurrency market operates in fascinating cycles, often driven by the performance of Bitcoin relative to other digital assets. The Altcoin Season Index, a widely recognized metric tracked by platforms like CoinMarketCap (CMC), serves as a barometer for these shifts. It helps investors gauge whether the broader market is currently favoring Bitcoin or if altcoins are stealing the spotlight.At its core, the Altcoin Season Index provides a snapshot of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) and how many of them have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This 90-day window offers a balanced view, smoothing out daily fluctuations and providing a more reliable trend indicator.

How Does the Altcoin Season Index Work?

The index is straightforward but powerful. Here’s a quick breakdown:

● Measurement Period: It analyzes the performance of the top 100 coins on CoinMarketCap over the last 90 days.

● Exclusions: Stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) and wrapped tokens (like WBTC) are deliberately excluded to ensure the index truly reflects the performance of independent altcoins.

● Outperformance Metric: The key is how many of these altcoins have gained more value than Bitcoin during the specified period.

● Index Range: The score ranges from 1 to 100, providing a clear numerical representation of market sentiment.

Let’s clarify what different scores signify:

Index Score Range	Market Condition	Description
75 – 100	Altcoin Season	At least 75% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This is when altcoins generally see significant gains.
26 – 74	Neutral/Mixed	The market is balanced, with no clear dominance by either Bitcoin or altcoins. Performance can vary wildly among different assets.
1 – 25	Bitcoin Season	25% or fewer of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. Bitcoin is typically the primary driver of market gains.

Decoding the Current State: Why Are We in Bitcoin Season?

As reported, the Altcoin Season Index recently registered 39. This figure, being well below the 75 threshold, clearly indicates that the market is currently in a ‘Bitcoin Season’. This means that over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has largely outperformed the majority of the top 100 altcoins.

Why might this be the case? Several factors contribute to Bitcoin’s dominance:

● Market Uncertainty: In times of macroeconomic uncertainty or broader market downturns, investors often flock to Bitcoin as a perceived ‘safe haven’ asset within the crypto space. Its larger market capitalization and longer track record give it a sense of stability compared to more volatile altcoins.

● Institutional Inflows: Significant institutional interest, particularly through products like Bitcoin Spot ETFs, can channel substantial capital directly into Bitcoin, bolstering its price and dominance.

● Halving Cycle Influence: Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce the supply of new Bitcoin, historically precede bull runs. Leading up to and immediately after a halving, Bitcoin often sees increased attention and capital inflow, leading to its outperformance.

● Dominance Cycle: The crypto market often follows a pattern where Bitcoin leads the initial rally, drawing in new capital. Once Bitcoin’s price stabilizes or consolidates at a new high, that capital (and new capital) often ‘trickles down’ into altcoins, triggering an Altcoin Season. We might be in the initial phase of this cycle.

Navigating Bitcoin Season: Strategies for Astute Investors

While the allure of massive altcoin gains is strong, understanding that we are in a Bitcoin Season is crucial for managing expectations and refining your investment approach. Here’s how you can strategically navigate this period:

1. Prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) Exposure

During Bitcoin Season, it’s logical to have a stronger allocation to Bitcoin itself. As the market leader, BTC is likely to capture the majority of the gains. For many investors, increasing their Bitcoin holdings or simply holding onto their existing BTC can be a sound strategy.

2. Research Strong Altcoins with Solid Fundamentals

Even in a Bitcoin Season, not all altcoins will perform poorly. This period can be an excellent opportunity for diligent research. Look for altcoins with:

● Strong Use Cases: Projects solving real-world problems or offering unique technological advancements.

● Active Development: Teams consistently building, updating, and improving their protocols.

● Robust Communities: A vibrant and engaged community indicates sustained interest and potential for growth.

● Reasonable Valuations: Projects that might be undervalued compared to their potential.

This is not about chasing hype but identifying long-term winners that could thrive when the market eventually shifts back to Altcoin Season.

3. Employ Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Instead of trying to time the market, which is notoriously difficult, consider dollar-cost averaging into your preferred altcoins. This involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the asset’s price. DCA helps mitigate risk by averaging out your purchase price and reduces the impact of market volatility.

4. Practice Prudent Risk Management

Volatility is a constant in crypto. During Bitcoin Season, altcoins can experience sharper downturns. Ensure you are not over-leveraged and only invest what you can afford to lose. Diversify your portfolio within reason, and consider setting stop-loss orders to protect your capital.

5. Cultivate Patience and a Long-Term Outlook

Market cycles take time to unfold. A Bitcoin Season is not a permanent state. Patient investors who understand the cyclical nature of the market are often the ones who reap the greatest rewards. Focus on long-term growth rather than short-term gains, and avoid making impulsive decisions based on daily price movements.

When Will the Altcoin Season Return?

The million-dollar question! Predicting the exact timing of the next Altcoin Season is impossible, but we can identify potential triggers and indicators:

● Bitcoin Price Consolidation: Often, after a significant Bitcoin rally, its price will consolidate or trade sideways. This allows capital to flow into altcoins as investors seek higher returns.

● Decreasing Bitcoin Dominance: The Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) is a key indicator. A sustained downtrend in BTC.D often signals that altcoins are starting to gain ground relative to Bitcoin.

● Major Altcoin Ecosystem Upgrades: Successful network upgrades (e.g., Ethereum’s Merge, Solana’s Firedancer), significant protocol developments, or new innovative projects gaining traction can spark interest and capital inflow into specific altcoins or entire ecosystems.

● Broader Market Recovery: A general improvement in global economic conditions or a surge in risk appetite among investors can also lead to increased investment in higher-risk assets like altcoins.

● Fresh Capital Inflows: New waves of retail or institutional capital entering the crypto market might initially flow into Bitcoin but eventually seek out higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities in altcoins.

Keep a close eye on these macro and micro indicators to anticipate the shift back towards Altcoin Season.

The Challenges and Risks of Market Cycles

While understanding market cycles is empowering, it’s essential to acknowledge the inherent challenges and risks:

● High Volatility: Both Bitcoin and altcoins are highly volatile. Prices can swing dramatically in short periods, leading to significant gains or losses.

● Information Overload: The crypto space is awash with news, rumors, and conflicting analyses. Filtering out noise and focusing on reliable information is a constant challenge.

● Emotional Trading: Fear of missing out (FOMO) during bull runs and panic selling during downturns are common pitfalls. Emotional decisions often lead to poor outcomes.

● Scams and Rug Pulls: The altcoin market, in particular, can be susceptible to fraudulent projects. Thorough due diligence is non-negotiable.

Actionable Insights for Your Crypto Journey

To summarize, here are some actionable insights to guide you through the current market climate and beyond:

● Stay Informed: Regularly check the Altcoin Season Index and other market indicators.

● Adapt Your Strategy: Adjust your portfolio allocation based on whether the market is in Bitcoin Season or Altcoin Season.

● Focus on Fundamentals: Always prioritize projects with strong technology, clear use cases, and competent teams.

● Manage Risk: Never invest more than you can afford to lose, and consider diversification and stop-loss orders.

● Cultivate Patience: Crypto investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

Understanding the Altcoin Season Index and its implications is a powerful tool in any crypto investor’s arsenal. While we are currently in a Bitcoin Season, history suggests that market cycles are inevitable. By staying informed, adapting your strategies, and focusing on long-term fundamentals, you can position yourself to potentially benefit from future shifts, including the eventual return of a thriving Altcoin Season. Happy investing!

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: What is the Altcoin Season Index and who tracks it?

The Altcoin Season Index is a metric that indicates whether the cryptocurrency market is currently favoring Bitcoin or altcoins. It’s tracked by various platforms, most notably CoinMarketCap (CMC), and compares the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

Q2: What does it mean when the Altcoin Season Index is at 39?

An index score of 39 signifies that the market is currently in ‘Bitcoin Season’. This means that 25% or fewer of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days, indicating that Bitcoin has been the dominant performer.

Q3: How is Altcoin Season determined?

Altcoin Season is declared when at least 75% of the top 100 altcoins (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) have outperformed Bitcoin over the preceding 90 days. This typically signals a period of significant gains for a broad range of altcoins.

Q4: What are some strategies for investing during Bitcoin Season?

During Bitcoin Season, investors might consider increasing their Bitcoin allocation, conducting thorough research on altcoins with strong fundamentals for long-term holds, employing dollar-cost averaging, and practicing robust risk management.

Q5: What factors could trigger the next Altcoin Season?

Potential triggers for the next Altcoin Season include Bitcoin price consolidation, a sustained decrease in Bitcoin dominance, major upgrades or innovations within altcoin ecosystems, and a general increase in risk appetite across the broader financial markets.

Q6: Is it possible to predict the exact start of Altcoin Season?

No, predicting the exact start of Altcoin Season is not possible due to the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the crypto market. However, by monitoring key indicators and understanding market cycles, investors can better anticipate potential shifts.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

A Legal Shift Toward Criminal Prosecution in Trade Enforcement

The Trump administration’s Justice Department is sending a clear warning to corporate America: tariff evasion will no longer be handled quietly through administrative channels. Instead, criminal prosecutions will become the default for serious violations. This policy marks a turning point in U.S. trade enforcement, driven by the DOJ’s newly formed Market, Government, and Consumer Fraud Unit.

Under the directive of DOJ Criminal Division Chief Matthew R. Galeotti, prosecutors are now prioritizing cases of misclassification, false country-of-origin labeling, and transshipment all tactics commonly used to circumvent high duties, particularly on goods from high-tariff countries like China and Cambodia.

The Stakes Rise as Tariff Legality Remains Unsettled

Ironically, the DOJ’s stepped-up enforcement comes as the very legality of Trump’s tariffs imposed under the politically branded "Liberation Day" banner is under judicial scrutiny. Federal appeals courts are hearing challenges from small businesses and manufacturers who argue that the executive branch overstepped its legal authority. Plaintiffs have already won temporary victories in lower courts, raising the possibility that the entire tariff regime could be overturned.

Despite this legal uncertainty, the DOJ is pressing forward with enforcement. The signal is clear: businesses should not expect a reprieve even if the broader legal context remains unresolved.

Corporate Risks Multiply in a New Enforcement Climate

Historically, tariff evasion cases were handled by customs authorities through civil or administrative remedies. Under the Trump DOJ, however, penalties for violations are steep. For fraud, fines can equal the full domestic value of the goods involved, while negligent errors can cost companies up to twice the underpaid duties. Gross negligence carries a penalty of up to four times the underpayment.

University of Kansas law professor Raj Bhala emphasized the heightened risk: companies especially those serving as the importer of record now face potential jail time for misstatements. He noted that even well-intentioned errors could attract scrutiny, particularly in an environment where customs enforcement has become politicized.

Small Businesses Face Compliance Challenges

Trade experts warn that small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) are especially vulnerable. Unlike multinational corporations with in-house legal teams and trade compliance departments, SMEs often rely on general counsel or external consultants to interpret complex customs rules. With thousands of product classifications and country-of-origin distinctions, the risk of inadvertent misfilings is high.

Erika Trujillo of SEIA Compliance Technologies noted that SMEs face an uphill battle. Many are priced out of hiring full-time trade experts or retaining law firms that charge over $1,000 per hour. Meanwhile, larger firms are actively recruiting customs and export control specialists, creating a knowledge gap that smaller players struggle to close.

Aggressive Enforcement Reflects Broader Tariff Strategy

Legal experts see the new enforcement push as a natural extension of Trump’s broader tariff strategy. Robert Shapiro of Thompson Coburn observed that the administration’s stance amounts to "raising the ante" on trade compliance. With sweeping tariffs in place and a vast volume of global imports flowing through U.S. ports, traditional customs enforcement tools are insufficient. Criminal prosecution, therefore, becomes a method of amplifying deterrence.

But this aggressive posture raises concerns about selective or politically motivated enforcement. Trujillo cautioned that some companies may be targeted not for the scale of their violations, but due to their position in politically sensitive sectors or past criticism of administration policy.

Tariff Compliance Now a Legal Minefield for U.S. Businesses

The DOJ’s decision to criminally prosecute tariff evasion marks a significant departure from past norms and underscores the causal link between Trump’s aggressive trade policy and a more confrontational enforcement environment. Businesses are being forced into a high-risk compliance landscape one where even minor missteps can lead to severe legal and financial consequences.

With court challenges to the tariffs ongoing and DOJ enforcement surging ahead, U.S. firms must navigate a dual uncertainty: legal ambiguity over policy legitimacy, and the escalating threat of prosecution. The new reality is clear compliance is no longer optional, and inaction could result in not just fines, but jail time.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

It took less than 48 hours after the US and European Union’s handshake trade deal for markets and a growing chorus of critics to start wondering whether the preliminary agreement forged in Scotland will stabilize transatlantic relations.

The EU over the weekend agreed to accept a 15% tariff on most of its exports, while the bloc’s average tariff rate on American goods should drop below 1% once the deal goes into effect. Brussels also said it would purchase $750 billion in American energy products and invest $600 billion more in the US.

The euro fell to a five-week low of $1.1527 on Tuesday, and is now down about 1.8% since the trade deal was announced. That’s after the common currency had surged to a near three-year high last week on the prospect of an agreement with the US.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who initially cheered having “succeeded” in avoiding a trade conflict and enabling the EU to safeguard its interests, seemed to sour on the accord. “The German economy will suffer significant damage from these tariffs,” he told reporters Monday.

Big Promises

There’s also some head-scratching over the EU’s offerings, especially the $750 billion promise to buy American energy goods over three years. That’s a pledge it will struggle to keep, Bloomberg News reports, because it’s hard to make the arithmetic add up.

The deal would require annual purchases of $250 billion of natural gas, oil and nuclear technology, including small modular reactors, according to EU officials.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc’s estimates were based on the existing plan to shift away from remaining Russian fossil fuel supplies and purchase “more affordable and better” liquefied natural gas from US producers.

Yet it’s hard to see how the EU attains such ambitions over such a short time frame. Total energy imports from the US accounted for less than $80 billion last year. Total US energy exports were just over $330 billion in 2024.

Meanwhile, concerns about the EU remaining submissive in a world of mounting protectionism were growing.

Rules ‘Dismantled’

“The free trade principles that have underpinned transatlantic prosperity since the end of World War II are being systematically dismantled,” Karin Karlsbro, a Swedish member of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said in a statement. “The risk of European economic and political marginalization grows with each concession made.”

In the midst of President Donald Trump’s dismantling of the rules-based trading system geared for low tariffs, news also emerged Monday that a White House economist is taking a top job at the institution responsible for overseeing the bylaws of global commerce.

On Monday, World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala announced the appointment of Jennifer DJ Nordquist to be one of four deputy directors-general at the WTO, replacing Angela Ellard.

Nordquist currently serves as counselor with Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers and is expected to start in Geneva on Oct. 1.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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