IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 November 2025

IC Markets

Forex

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asia session on November 17 saw mixed activity in regional equity indexes, commodity prices, and currency pairs driven by Japan's weaker GDP, sectoral pressures, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of major U.S., European, and regional data releases. Tourism and retail stocks in Japan were especially impacted, while the Kospi showed relative strength, and oil prices weakened. The yen held steady after the GDP release, and Indian markets opened firm amid strong domestic flows.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today's trading sessions are characterized by significant uncertainty stemming from delayed U.S. economic data, shifting Fed rate cut expectations (now at 50% for December), and anticipation of critical corporate earnings. Canadian inflation data (1:30 PM GMT) represents the day's key macroeconomic release, while Japan's confirmed GDP contraction highlights global growth concerns. Bitcoin's 25% pullback from October highs reflects broader risk-off sentiment, while oil prices remain under pressure despite geopolitical tensions.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

The US dollar is navigating a complex environment marked by diminished Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, lingering economic uncertainty from the historic government shutdown, and a critical week of data releases ahead. With the DXY testing key support around 99.00 and December Fed rate cut odds falling below 50%, the dollar's near-term trajectory hinges on forthcoming economic indicators that will finally shed light on the US economy's true condition.Central Bank Notes:

· The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.

· The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.

· Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September's consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.

· Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.

· The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.

· The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.

· The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.

· The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Gold stabilized near $4,100 on November 17 after two days of losses driven by collapsing expectations for a December Fed rate cut, now viewed as essentially a coin toss at 44-50% probability. The metal remains up 55-57% year-to-date despite retreating from October's record high above $4,380.

The recently concluded 43-day U.S. government shutdown created significant volatility, initially boosting gold above $4,240 on safe-haven demand before triggering profit-taking on resolution. Delayed economic data and hawkish Fed commentary have introduced genuine uncertainty for the December 10 FOMC meeting.Next 24 Hours Bias Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

No major news eventWhat can we expect from EUR today?The euro opened Monday's trading session on a firm footing at 1.1621, supported by a combination of US dollar weakness, stable ECB policy, and resilient eurozone services sector performance. While the ECB maintains its "good place" with rates on hold and only a 40% chance of cuts by September 2026, the Federal Reserve faces growing pressure to ease further, with December rate cut odds now a coin toss at approximately 50%.Central Bank Notes:

· The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers' assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.

· Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.

· Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.

· Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.

· The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.

· Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.

· The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.

· Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Swiss Franc enters the week at multi-year highs, supported by three key pillars: the confirmed US tariff reduction from 39% to 15%, ongoing safe-haven demand driven by global uncertainty, and SNB policy stability at 0% with negative rates ruled out. The USD/CHF pair is trading near 0.79, its strongest level since 2011, while EUR/CHF has reached levels not seen since 2015. With Switzerland's Q3 GDP flash estimate due today and the December 11 SNB meeting on the horizon, the franc's trajectory will depend on economic data releases and any shifts in the SNB's confident inflation outlook.Central Bank Notes:

· The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.

· Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.

· The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.

· The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.

· Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

· Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged

· The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.

· The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)Key news events today

The British Pound faces significant headwinds as Monday's Asian session begins. The government's fiscal U-turn has raised questions about the UK's fiscal credibility, while persistently weak economic data has cemented expectations for a December rate cut. With markets pricing in a 75-80% probability of a 25 basis point cut on 18 December, and technical indicators pointing to further downside risk, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure unless upcoming data surprises to the upside or Catherine Mann's comments signal resistance to near-term easing. Traders should watch the 1.3150-1.3185 support zone closely, as a break below could accelerate losses toward 1.2875 or lower.Central Bank Notes:

· The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee's cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.

· The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as "appropriate for current market conditions," emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.

· Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee's latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.

· Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.

· International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.

· The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.

· The MPC's overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.

· The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.Next 24 Hours BiasMedium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Today marks a pivotal moment for Canadian Dollar traders with the October CPI release. Inflation data coming in line with expectations would likely reinforce the market consensus that the Bank of Canada has paused rate cuts, providing technical support for the loonie around current levels near 1.40. However, the broader outlook remains subdued with rate differentials and trade uncertainty weighing on medium-term CAD performance. The market will closely watch both the headline and core inflation figures alongside any forward guidance cues for the December 10 BoC decision.Central Bank Notes:

· The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.

· The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.

· Canada's economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.

· Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.

· Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.

· Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank's target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.

· The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.

· The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeaK Bullish

Oil

Oil prices declined on Monday, November 17, as Russian export operations resumed at Novorossiysk following Ukrainian strikes. The market faces significant bearish pressure from a growing supply glut, with the IEA warning of surpluses reaching 4 million bpd in 2026. Despite geopolitical risks from intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil taking effect on November 21, and Iran's tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, these supply risks have proven insufficient to offset fundamental oversupply concerns.

Next 24 Hours BiasWeak Bearish

Source: IC Markets

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Economic

Commodity

Fed’s Rate Cut Outlook Grows Cloudier

Gold's recent downward trend has been driven by growing skepticism that the US Federal Reserve will move forward with a rate cut at its December meeting. A significant backlog of economic data caused by the longest government shutdown in US history has left policymakers in a state of hesitation. While a rate cut was widely expected just a few weeks ago, market sentiment is now split, with traders reassessing the likelihood of monetary easing.

Strategist Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets emphasized that although the shutdown has ended, the lack of timely labor and inflation data has created an analytical “fog” for both investors and central bankers. This delay in economic clarity weakens the case for a near-term cut, making bullion less attractive amid rising yields and a firmer US dollar.

Volatility and Weak Demand Compound Losses

The pressure on gold is not solely a result of US macroeconomic factors. In Asia, subdued physical demand especially in India has exacerbated the metal’s decline. According to Manav Modi from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Indian gold dealers are now offering steep discounts due to high price volatility, which has discouraged retail buyers.

Despite the recent pullback, gold is still up approximately 55% year-to-date, maintaining its trajectory for the strongest annual gain since 1979. The rally has been supported by robust central bank purchases and heightened investor interest in precious metals as safe havens amid fiscal concerns in major economies.

Longer-Term Bullish Sentiment Remains Intact

Even as short-term headwinds prevail, analysts argue that gold’s medium- to long-term bullish narrative remains intact. A softer outlook for the US dollar and increasing fiscal imbalances globally could sustain the metal's appeal. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and the residual impact of inflation may reinforce gold’s role as a portfolio hedge.

In other precious metals, silver and palladium saw modest gains, while platinum also edged higher. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index ticked up 0.1%, further weighing on gold’s immediate recovery.

If momentum continues to follow this cautious tone, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Traders should monitor upcoming US data releases closely. A surprise softening in employment or inflation metrics could revive rate-cut hopes and offer near-term support for bullion. Conversely, strong data may cement the Fed’s hawkish stance, pushing gold closer to key support levels.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Stocks

A cautious start to the week amid weak global cues

European stocks appear set for a subdued opening on Monday, with modest losses across major indices as investors remain wary of both macroeconomic headwinds and sector-specific valuation risks. The UK’s FTSE 100 is expected to open 0.13% lower, while the DAX (Germany) and CAC 40 (France) also show slight downward momentum. Italy’s FTSE MIB is forecasted to fall by 0.2%, according to IG’s early trading projections.

The hesitancy reflects a continuation of last week’s market retreat, where European bourses closed sharply lower on Friday, driven by concerns over an overheating artificial intelligence sector and broader global economic uncertainties.

U.S. rate cut expectations recalibrated after Fed commentary

Much of the current sentiment shift stems from the reassessment of potential Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. While markets previously priced in a 95% chance of a December rate cut, the probability has now dropped to 56.1%, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. This shift has had ripple effects across global equities, particularly in technology sectors, which have seen significant rotation in recent days.

Adding to the uncertainty is a geopolitical flare-up between China and Japan, with Beijing issuing travel and study advisories for its citizens visiting Japan. This development weighed on Asia-Pacific markets, which closed mixed overnight and added to the cautious tone heading into the European session.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were little changed after a volatile previous week that saw a broad reallocation away from highly valued AI stocks, as well as increased scrutiny on corporate earnings and macro trends.

Lack of catalysts keeps Europe on hold

The European market’s downbeat opening is also influenced by the absence of major corporate earnings or key economic data releases on Monday. With no major macro reports scheduled, traders are left responding to external drivers, such as U.S. policy developments and geopolitical risks.

With sentiment fragile and few new data points to digest, the start of the trading week is expected to feature cautious positioning. Investors will likely watch closely for any fresh comments from central bank officials, particularly from the Fed and the European Central Bank, as well as developments in global diplomacy and tech sector volatility.

Unless there is a significant surprise midweek such as a policy pivot or unexpected earnings release markets may remain in wait-and-see mode, with defensive strategies and volatility hedges becoming more attractive in the short term.

Source: CNBC

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Political

Trump reverses course on Epstein case, calls for full transparency

In a surprising about-face, President Donald Trump on Sunday urged House Republicans to support the full release of Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal investigative files, declaring, “we have nothing to hide.” The announcement on Truth Social marks a significant reversal from his previous silence and from reluctance within his administration to fully disclose materials linked to the disgraced financier.

Trump’s comments arrive just days before the House of Representatives is expected to vote on a bipartisan measure demanding transparency around Epstein’s dealings. The measure, co-sponsored by Thomas Massie (R) and Ro Khanna (D), gained momentum after mounting public and political scrutiny over the lingering secrecy surrounding Epstein's alleged trafficking network and high-profile connections.

Emails link Epstein and Trump but without direct accusations

Fueling the renewed push is the release of thousands of emails by the House Oversight Committee, in which Epstein and his associates discussed Trump. While the emails do not explicitly allege misconduct by Trump, they reference interactions with one of Epstein’s victims and suggest familiarity between the two men reigniting public concern over their past ties.

Trump has long denied any knowledge of Epstein’s illegal activities and claims to have distanced himself from him in the early 2000s. Nonetheless, the timing of these disclosures, alongside revelations about former President Bill Clinton and Larry Summers, has turned the political spotlight back onto Trump.

GOP divisions intensify as Trump clashes with Greene

Trump’s call for transparency has exposed deep divisions within the Republican Party, especially following criticism from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a staunch ally. Greene signed the House petition pushing for the release and accused Trump of trying to silence dissent within the party. In return, Trump labeled Greene a “Traitor” on Truth Social, escalating their feud and hinting at broader intra-party fractures.

The President also claimed some GOP members were being “used” by Democrats, suggesting a conspiracy to derail Republican momentum and distract from the party’s recent success in ending the government shutdown.

House vote expected Tuesday as DOJ faces pressure

The upcoming vote puts pressure on the Department of Justice, which has resisted releasing Epstein’s full case files despite earlier pledges. Trump’s statement noted that “tens of thousands of pages” had already been made public and called for further focus on “Democrat operatives” tied to Epstein, including Clinton and Summers.

As public protests intensify, including demonstrations outside the Capitol, and bipartisan voices join the call for transparency, the Epstein case is once again at the center of political and media discourse. The outcome of the House vote could have broader implications not only for Trump’s reelection narrative but also for Congress’s transparency record, as voters demand accountability across party lines.

The release of the Epstein files could significantly reshape political alliances and narratives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with both Republicans and Democrats under increasing pressure to explain their past connections and current positions.

Source: CNBC

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SAXO

Forex

Political

Economic

Stocks

Forget sectors. Forget countries. The future of investing is long-term trends.

Artificial intelligence reshaping industries, defence budgets soaring, cybercrime costs ballooning, healthcare breakthroughs lengthening lives, dividend growth rewarding patience, and blockchain re-wiring finance. These are the narratives shaping markets today and tomorrow.

More and more investors are realising they do not just want exposure to an index. They want exposure to a long-term theme. They want their portfolios to reflect the world they see coming. That is the idea behind thematic investing: aligning capital with the long-term trends shaping the future, while keeping it anchored in fundamentals.

The backdrop: four forces rewriting the playbook

Four overall structural forces are reshaping economies and markets: technology, demographics, geopolitics and climate.

Technology: AI is permeating everything from semiconductors to healthcare.Demographics: an ageing population drives demand for medicines, while younger generations demand digital-native services.Geopolitics: defence budgets are rising, cyberattacks are multiplying, and supply chains are being redrawn.Climate: decarbonisation and the green transition are reallocating capital across industries.

These are not quarterly noise; they are generational shifts. Each of Saxo's investment themes is built around one or more of these structural forces: translating broad megatrends like technology, demographics, geopolitics and climate into concrete companies that investors can research and follow.

"Investing in megatrends is about positioning capital where the world is going, not where it has been." - Jacob Falkencrone

Thematic investing, explained

Thematic investing is not the same as buying a sector fund. A sector ETF might give you banks; a theme such as "cyber security" cuts across software, hardware and services, all tied to the same driver.

Think of it as owning the storyline rather than the genre. Instead of filing your portfolio under "technology", you pick the chapter called "AI" and look at companies from chip designers to data centres that all ride that arc.

Importantly, themes are not fads. A well-built theme has structural drivers, broad relevance, and companies with real revenues and business models behind it.

"The best themes are not about what is fashionable today, but about what will still matter in ten years." - Jacob Falkencrone

The last three years have shown how fast themes can go from hype to adoption. Generative AI was science fiction, then a pilot project, now a boardroom agenda. Defence spending was stagnant for decades, now NATO allies are committing two per cent of GDP as a baseline. Healthcare is shifting from treatment to prevention and personalisation.

Themes are not promises of smooth returns, but they are engines of long-term growth. The challenge for investors is separating signal from noise.

Make it yours: investing with conviction

One reason investors gravitate to themes is engagement. It is easier to stay invested when you believe in the story. If you care about data security, a cyber theme feels tangible. If you are passionate about science, healthcare innovation resonates. If you want stable income, dividend growth appeals.

This emotional connection matters. Investors are less likely to panic-sell when they have conviction in why they own something.

Portfolio fit: core and satellite

Themes work best as satellites around a diversified core. Imagine your portfolio as a solar system: a core holding of broad equities and bonds, surrounded by thematic satellites that express your convictions.

Typical investors might allocate five to 20% of their portfolio to themes, depending on risk appetite. This keeps you engaged without overexposing you to any single storyline.

"Themes should excite you, but they should never dominate your portfolio. Think spice, not the whole meal." - Jacob Falkencrone

Meet the investment themes

Artificial intelligence: AI is no longer confined to labs. It is driving productivity gains across industries, from chipmakers and cloud infrastructure to healthcare and consumer apps. Adoption is accelerating as companies race to embed AI in their business models.

Defence: geopolitics has returned to the centre of markets. Rising military budgets, rearmament programmes and new technologies in aerospace and security are creating long-term demand for defence contractors and suppliers.

Cyber security: with digital infrastructure now critical to everything from banking to healthcare, the cost of cybercrime is surging. Companies and governments alike are prioritising spending on protection, making this a structural growth market.

Healthcare innovation: breakthroughs in genomics, personalised medicine and biotechnology are transforming how diseases are treated. An ageing population adds to the momentum, fuelling demand for better therapies and new technologies.

Dividend growth: investors searching for resilience and income are drawn to companies with a proven record of raising payouts year after year. These firms tend to be financially strong, with stable earnings and a focus on rewarding shareholders.

Crypto and blockchain: blockchain technology is beginning to reshape financial infrastructure and digital assets. Despite volatility and regulatory risks, its potential to transform payments, settlement and decentralised finance makes it a theme too big to ignore.

Thematic investing is not about predicting the next quarter's GDP print. It is about expressing a view on how the world is changing and owning a slice of that change.

Source: SAXO

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Economic

Commodity

Market doubts grow over OPEC+ strategy amid rising oversupply concerns

Despite rising forecasts of a significant global oil surplus in 2026, most oil traders and analysts remain skeptical that OPEC+ will implement production cuts to stabilize prices. According to a Bloomberg survey of 25 industry experts, nearly two-thirds said they don’t expect the coalition to reduce output next year, reflecting diminished expectations for supply discipline.

This would mark the first time in more than two years that traders are not anticipating proactive intervention from OPEC+, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of an excess 4 million barrels per day a glut not seen since the height of the 2020 COVID-19 collapse.

OPEC+ focuses on market share, not price defense

The caution stems from the group’s strategic shift earlier this year, when Saudi Arabia and its allies abruptly revived a large portion of previously halted supply, aiming to regain market share lost to U.S. shale and other non-OPEC producers. Roughly 75% of the 3.85 million bpd cuts enacted since 2023 have already been reinstated a year ahead of schedule.

Analysts believe OPEC+ will only consider output curbs if Brent crude drops below $50 per barrel or if global demand collapses scenarios not yet reflected in current market conditions. As of Monday, Brent crude is trading near $64, down 14% year-to-date, straining the finances of OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, which is grappling with budget deficits and delays in economic diversification plans.

Geopolitics and U.S. relations add complexity

A potential meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Donald Trump could further complicate decisions. Riyadh is seeking security guarantees from Washington and may delay production cuts to maintain leverage in negotiations. Trump, seeking lower fuel prices for voters, is likely to oppose supply constraints.

While Morgan Stanley anticipates a “very substantial” chance of cuts next year, the Bloomberg survey shows a clear divide: only 8 of 25 respondents expect OPEC+ to act, while 12 rule out cuts entirely. Others believe curbs would only follow a market shock.

The IEA, FGE, and Rapidan Energy Group argue that either geopolitical disruptions must absorb the surplus or OPEC+ must step in. Rapidan’s Bob McNally warned, “Either this looming projected surplus is the biggest mirage in recent oil market history, or something must give next year to prevent a sharp price drop.”

China’s demand may buy OPEC+ time

Some believe that the surplus may be absorbed by strategic reserve purchases in China, which has been a reliable buyer during previous gluts. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also forecast a smaller surplus than the IEA, suggesting OPEC+ might weather the storm without immediate cuts.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss and analysts at Rystad Energy point out that non-OPEC supply growth could stall by late 2026, allowing OPEC+ to potentially declare victory in its market-share push. With demand growth possibly extending beyond previous forecasts, OPEC+ may achieve greater influence in the medium term.

The current market sentiment suggests OPEC+ is unlikely to cut production in 2026, despite mounting surplus warnings. Unless crude prices plunge or demand collapses, the group seems committed to a strategic shift focused on market share rather than price support, even at the risk of further fiscal strain and potential instability in global oil markets.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Stocks

Investor caution prevails ahead of key earnings and economic data releases

Asia-Pacific markets opened the week with a subdued tone as investors braced for a heavy lineup of corporate earnings, delayed U.S. job data, and fresh monetary policy signals. All eyes are now on Nvidia's earnings, with the chipmaker widely seen as the barometer of investor sentiment in the artificial intelligence sector. A disappointing result could trigger a broader unwinding of tech-related gains that have fueled recent market exuberance.

Nvidia, which has surged over 1,000% since November 2022 and recently became the first company to cross $5 trillion in market value, is under the microscope. Its upcoming earnings will be scrutinized not just for performance, but for forward guidance on AI-related demand. Market strategists suggest that if Nvidia fails to deliver strong growth or upbeat commentary, a correction in AI-driven trades is likely.

U.S. interest rate cut hopes retreat amid hawkish Fed commentary

Expectations for a December rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have dropped from over 60% to 40%, following hawkish remarks by regional Fed presidents including Jeffrey Schmid and Lorie Logan. This shift has weighed on sentiment, especially as the market braces for Thursday’s delayed September jobs report. While this data may be stale due to private surveys already signaling a labor market slowdown, its interpretation by Fed officials 19 of whom are speaking this week will guide market direction.

Economic figures released Monday show that Japan’s GDP shrank for the first time in six quarters, with U.S. tariffs blamed for much of the drag. At the same time, escalating diplomatic tensions with China are beginning to show economic consequences. After Beijing advised its citizens to avoid Japan, shares in major Japanese tourism and retail firms including Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido dropped around 10%. This development adds strain to Japan’s already fragile recovery.

Meanwhile, the yen weakened to 154.54 per dollar, as investors watch for possible intervention by Japanese authorities. The move comes despite reports that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to introduce a ¥17 trillion ($110 billion) stimulus package, furthering her expansionary fiscal agenda. However, analysts warn of potential capital flight if fiscal credibility erodes, drawing parallels to the UK’s recent sell-off under policy uncertainty.

Commodities and cryptocurrencies falter under macro pressure

In commodities, gold remained weak at $4,084/oz, and Brent crude fell 1% to $63.78, as traders turned defensive. Meanwhile, Bitcoin increasingly seen as a proxy for liquidity and tech sentiment continued to slide, suffering its worst week since March after losing more than 10%, now trading at $94,717.

This week presents a convergence of macro headwinds slowing economies, sticky inflation, and shifting Fed expectations with micro-level scrutiny on earnings from consumer giants like Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and most critically, Nvidia. Markets are approaching an inflection point: strong earnings could reignite confidence, but any sign of weakness particularly from Nvidia could expose the fragility beneath the AI rally and send ripples across global equity markets.

Source: Reuters

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IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Gold (XAU)

The Euro (EUR)

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Pound (GBP)Key news events today

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Oil

Source: IC Markets

Gold Retreats for Third Consecutive Day Amid Dimming Hopes for US Rate Cut

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Nvidia Earnings Loom Large as Markets Brace for AI Rally Test Amid Broader Global Headwinds

Investor caution prevails ahead of key earnings and economic data releases

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Commodities and cryptocurrencies falter under macro pressure

Source: Reuters

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