Australia's February PMI: Private Sector Growth Accelerates, Services Sector Drives the Surge

Data Interpretation

Summary:

The latest data on Australia's February PMI reveals an accelerated pace of expansion in private sector business activities, with a further increase in the growth rate of the services sector. However, manufacturing growth remains sluggish. Despite continued growth in the job market, business confidence in future economic prospects has declined, while inflationary pressures persist.

On February 21, the February S&P PMI was released:

Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 50.6 (Jan: 50.2). 27 month high.

Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.4 (Jan: 51.2). 6-month high.

Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index: 51.2 (Jan: 51.1). 6-month high.

At 51.2 in February, up from 51.1 in January, the headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index signalled a fifth successive monthly expansion in private sector output. While modest, the rate of expansion was the most pronounced since last August.

In the services sector, the Business Activity Index rose to 51.4 in February, accelerating for a third consecutive month, with the latest rise attributed to greater inflows of new business. In comparison, manufacturing output rose only fractionally. However, businesses generally held a cautious view of the future economic environment, leading to a decline in business confidence. Rising labor costs continued to fuel input cost inflation in the services sector.

The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50.6, indicating a slight increase in manufacturing output, albeit at a slower pace than the services sector. The Manufacturing Production Index fell from 50.5 to 50.1, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing growth. Notably, manufacturing new orders resumed growth for the first time since November 2022, indicating an improvement in market demand. However, manufacturers remained cautious in hiring, with manufacturing employment declining for the second time in the past three months.

In terms of the job market, employment levels in Australia's private sector continued to grow for the second consecutive month, consistent with the trend in new business and overall output. Employment growth was faster in the services sector, while hiring in the manufacturing sector remained sluggish. Meanwhile, both business inventories and backlogs of work declined, indicating that some firms were still working through their previous production backlogs.

Turning to prices, input cost inflation climbed for a third consecutive month in February, rising to the highest rate since last September. Panellists often mentioned higher material, energy, financing and wage costs. Australian private sector firms continued to share their cost burdens with clients, leading to another increase in average selling prices. The rate of inflation eased to match the series average, however, as firms were unwilling to fully pass on cost increases amidst heightening competition.

Looking ahead, February's S&P Global Flash Australia PMI data outlined further improvements in private sector business conditions. However, a fall in business sentiment to the lowest level since last October provided mixed signals for near-term economic performance. Concerns listed by survey respondents included the impact of still-elevated interest rates and uncertainties surrounding both the domestic and global economy. The moderate recovery in manufacturing and weak export demand may continue to weigh on overall growth. However, with the ongoing expansion of the services sector and potential policy adjustments, there is still hope for Australia's economic recovery.

Overall, Australia's February PMI data indicates that while the growth momentum has strengthened, the economy still faces challenges from inflationary pressures and declining business confidence. In the coming months, the market will closely monitor policy directions and the recovery of global demand.

Australia February PMI

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FED

Remarks of Officials

On February 20, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivered remarks at the Economic Club of New York in New York City, the details of which are as follows:

The U.S. economy exhibits robust strength, with both GDP levels and growth rates at or exceeding long-term potential. Consumer spending continues to be a key driver of expansion. Personal consumption expenditures surged at a robust 4.2% in the fourth quarter, the highest for any quarter in 2024. Business confidence has improved over the past three months, accompanied by increased planned capital expenditures.

Inflation has significantly receded from its mid-2022 peak, yet it remains above the FOMC's 2% target, and certain measures of inflation expectations have recently risen. The January CPI report revealed substantial monthly increases in goods, services, and housing prices, as well as in both core and overall inflation rates. Monetary policy is moderately restrictive following a 100-basis-point rate cut in the fall, though less so than six months prior. This shift may necessitate a more hawkish stance from the Fed.

The labor market remains robust, with employment risks appearing broadly balanced and recent indicators suggesting some strengthening. Over the past three months, non-farm payrolls have increased by an average of 237,000, exceeding the break-even rate, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 4%. While job openings and the quits rate have moderated, the rate of layoffs remains low. Although average hourly earnings and other measures of employment costs have shown steady growth, the labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure, as productivity has also improved.

Overall, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored is elevated, given strong economic growth, a solid labor market, supportive financial conditions, core inflation exceeding 2%, and some recent increases in inflation expectations, compared to a scenario where the economy has excess capacity and consumers and businesses have not experienced high inflation. If inflation persists above the target level or expectations continue to rise, a more restrictive monetary policy stance may be warranted.

Federal Reserve's Musalem

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FED

Remarks of Officials

"My view is, before we got to the uncertainties from policy and from geopolitics and from some others, the overall thing (inflation) looked pretty good to me," Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve President, said. The Labor Department reported a larger-than-expected 0.5% month-over-month increase in CPI for January. The year-on-year figure also climbed back to 3% for the first time since June, having risen each month since September. The comparable Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target is due to be released next week, and most economists estimate it will show less of an increase than reflected in the CPI.

In his discussion about the labor market, Goolsbee described it as "epically strong." He suggested that the job market remains robust despite uncertainties around immigration policy. Over half of the labor force in the past decade has been composed of new workers, many of whom are likely immigrants.

President Trump has recently proposed or implemented a series of tariffs. Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports and plans to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on other countries. Additionally, there are considerations for tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber this week. Goolsbee expressed concern about the potential for these large-scale tariffs to cause a significant supply shock, which could exacerbate inflation, similar to the effects seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term as president did not have a material impact on inflation, Goolsbee said, in part because they were narrower and included enough exemptions that supply networks were not affected. But in thinking about the more broad-based and higher tariffs currently in development by Trump," it depends on how many countries they are going to apply to and how big are they going to be. And the more it looks like a COVID-sized shock, the more nervous you should be about that."

Goolsbee said it's important to remember that great progress has been made in bringing inflation down from the four-decade highs reached in 2022, but the level of uncertainty around the economy and the evolving policies of the new Trump administration around tariffs may be having an impact. If tariffs raise prices, the Fed has to think about it.

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Justin

Economic

China’s distressed developers are increasingly asking local courts to drive their restructuring efforts, as weak home sales continue to weaken their ability to make headway or deliver on private debt workout plans.

Chongqing Casin Property Development Group Co late last month became the newest among its peers to apply for the court to overhaul its debt. The move followed a Bloomberg News’ report that defaulter China Fortune Land Development Co is considering scrapping a creditor-approved debt plan for a court-led solution.

Meantime, Jinke Property Group Co, the country’s first high-profile, listed delinquent builder to pursue this option, started a creditor vote on its relevant restructuring proposal earlier this week. The vote will end on March 31.

The expanding list of Chinese developers seeking the court’s help is the latest sign of stress in a property debt crisis that’s entering its fifth year, as private debt talks become protracted and existing restructuring efforts suffer setbacks. While a court-driven process does present an alternative path for distressed firms, its success hinges on key factors including the introduction of cash-rich new investors.

“Court-led restructuring is the last resort for distressed companies,” said Qian Wenhan, a partner of Zhong Yin Law Firm, who specialises in restructuring and bankruptcies. “As China’s housing market has yet to notably stabilise, and some companies’ debt negotiations become lengthy or even hit an impasse, more developers are expected to use this approach to solve their predicament.”

The trend is also evident across industries as a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy takes its toll. The number of Chinese listed companies seeking court-led restructuring rose to a six-year high of 29 last year, according to a report by Shanghai-based AllBright Law Offices. Nearly a quarter of them were from real estate or construction firms, it shows.

Court-supervised restructuring for developers in China remains a novelty, despite a record wave of defaults in the industry over recent years. Such an approach generally requires a procedure to place the company under bankruptcy administration, and may include white knights to bring in new funds.

A growing number of Chinese developers also have ended up in court in Hong Kong since the crisis began, although it was predominantly the offshore creditors that applied to liquidate the defaulters’ business. At least seven such builders, including former industry behemoth China Evergrande Group, has received the court’s so-called winding-up rulings.

To be sure, whether a local court will agree to drive a company’s restructuring depends on key conditions such as securing strategic investors who can inject new life into the debt-laden firm, lawyers and analysts say.

While the sample pool in China remains too small to meaningfully analyse the impact of court-led restructuring on creditors and investors, the prolonged nature of the debt crisis has lowered the expectations for some.

“Holders of public bonds can otherwise only live to see corporate assets depreciate over time,” said Ma Suiqing, a senior partner and fixed income investment director at Tensor Pacific Co, a Hangzhou-based hedge fund. “That’s why court-led restructuring of developers is clearly beneficial to most bondholders, as it at least offers some level of transparency and fairness.”

Source: Theedgemarkets

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FED

Remarks of Officials

The overall picture is that the U.S. economy remains on a firm footing, with output growing at a solid pace. Real gross domestic product grew 2.5 percent in 2024. Consumer spending continued to drive this solid pace last year. While retail sales posted a decline last month, January data are often difficult to interpret. Bad weather and seasonal adjustment difficulties may have affected the release, and it should be noted the slowdown came after a strong pace of sales in the second half of last year.

Inflation has fallen significantly since its peak in the middle of 2022, though the path continues to be bumpy and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Readings last week from the BLS showed price pressures persisted in the economy in January. Based on the consumer price index and producer price index data for January, it is estimated that the PCE index advanced about 2.4 percent on a 12-month basis in January. Excluding food and energy costs, core prices are estimated to have risen 2.6 percent. Those readings show there is still some way to go before achieving the FOMC's 2 percent objective.

Employment readings show that the labor market is healthy and stable. Payroll job gains have been solid recently, averaging 189,000 per month over the past four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). After touching 4.2 percent as recently as November, the unemployment rate has flattened to 4 percent since then, consistent with a labor market that is neither weakening nor showing signs of overheating.

Governor Kugler noted that while downside risks to employment have diminished, upside risks to inflation remain. Additionally, the potential net effects of new economic policies are still highly uncertain. Therefore, it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%.

Overall, the net impact of new economic policies remains uncertain, and the future path of interest rates will depend on specific developments. Given the current balance of risks, it is appropriate to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for a period of time.

Fed Governor Kugler

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ING

Economic

Core inflation accelerated faster than expected in January, while Japan’s service-led recovery continued. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to deliver a 25 bp rate hike in May, though a sharp rise in the JPY complicates the economic outlook.

Fresh food prices propelled inflation higher in January

Japan’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 4.0% year on year in January, in line with market consensus (vs 3.6% in December), as fresh food surged 21.9% (vs 17.3% in December). Rice prices skyrocketed 70.9%. Excluding fresh food, core CPI rose faster than expected to 3.2% (vs 3.0% in December, 3.1% market consensus). Costs of eating out have been on the rise for the past three months. Inflation rose 0.5% month on month, seasonally-adjusted, with goods up 1.0% and service costs unchanged. We believe that the BoJ is likely to focus on core trends rather than headline inflation. Though in line with BoJ projections, price dynamics support the central bank’s rate normalization strategy.

JPY rising as market expectations for a rate hike increase

A variety of factors have market expectations pivoting toward rate hikes: recent hawkish comments from BoJ officials; stronger-than-expected GDP data; and a rising CPI. As such, 10Y Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose significantly, while the JPY surged against the USD over the past week.

We believe that the BoJ prefers to avoid any sudden moves in market rates, as the currency reaction could dampen economic sentiment and activity. A sudden jump in long-term yields would increase uncertainty about corporate and government funding. Sharp JPY appreciation may hurt earnings. So, the BoJ will try to limit the extremes of market reactions. This morning, Governor Ueda told parliament that the BoJ will keep JGB buying operations flexible. Trading in the JPY and JGBs seemed to calm down somewhat after his remarks.

Flash PMIs advanced in February

Japan’s flash purchasing managers indexes showed services are helping to drive the economic recovery, while manufacturing remains sluggish. Overall, both indices improved from the previous month. The service PMI rose to 53.1 in February from 53 in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. The manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.9 from 48.7, but has remained in contractionary territory for eight months. Output and new orders were up. We are concerned that US tariffs will eventually dampen the economy. But so far, the negative impact hasn't materialised.

Inflation outlook uncertain

Tokyo inflation data, due out next week, is expected to ease modestly in February. Food prices are likely to rise further, but renewed energy subsidy programmes should offset some gains. We also believe the government is likely to introduce measures to stabilise rice prices, which could tame broader food costs. Yet with Trump's tariff policies intensifying, the BoJ will remain quite cautious going forward.

Core inflation is likely to stay above 2% for a considerable time, which allows the terminal rate to reach 1.25% by 2026

Japanese Inflation Accelerates, Raising Odds of Another Rate Hike_1

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ING

Economic

The EU’s vision on Agriculture and Food is clearly farmer-centric. But what's in the document – and equally, what isn't – provides valuable guidance for food manufacturers, traders and retailers about the direction of EU policy towards 2040. With limited guidance on how to achieve emission cuts, the Commission remains open to a range of solutions.

Greenhouse gas reduction targets – ambition versus reality

In its long-awaited Vision on agriculture and food, the EU states that the Commission ‘expects agriculture to achieve the emission cuts in alignment with the EU's climate target for 2030’, but without mentioning the 55% target explicitly. That commitment from policymakers should comfort corporates in the food industry, given that their Scope 3 targets largely rely on progress at farm level.

Still, we remain largely in the dark on exactly how the EU Commission plans to achieve this, aside from the fact that incentives, carbon removals and technological advancements should help to do the trick. And we have doubts on how realistic it is given that the reduction in agricultural emissions currently stands at around -25% compared to 1990. With just five more years to go, projections from the European Environment Agency show that the sector will be falling short of the broader target.

Voluntary benchmarking – EU could learn from existing schemes

Rolling out mandatory on-farm benchmarking on sustainability parameters is proving to be a political no-go. Still, the Commission aims to get more farmers engaged in sustainability benchmarking by developing an ‘on-farm sustainability compass’ with input from various stakeholders. Some food manufacturers have already rolled out such schemes. We see a clear opportunity for these companies to share best practices with policymakers – and in turn, provide valuable input for the Commission's 'Compass'.

Generational renewal – farmers of the future

The fates of farmers and food processors are often intertwined. A lack of perspective for farmers could reduce supply and lead to higher prices and excess capacity in production, which is most worrying for companies that depend on a ‘local’ farm base (like meat, dairy and sugar processors). So if the Commission is taking the lead on a Generational Renewal Strategy to slow down the drop in the number of farmers and the pressure on farm land, that’s also positive news for food companies and suppliers of farm inputs.

Don't expect any bold or swift action on livestock

It’s not surprising that the Commission is promising a long-term vision for the livestock sector, given its economic weight; livestock accounts for a third of EU food exports. However, it also remains the most carbon-intensive part of the agri-food value chain. The direction the Commission takes on this will be crucial, particularly for EU meat and dairy processors. The Vision mentions technological advancements as a solution, including feeding strategies. In our view, that's a signal that policymakers will continue to be supportive of feed additives and other feed based solutions. But for more particular recommendations, we have to await the results from a ‘livestock work stream’ that still needs to be set up.

Emissions Trading System – agriculture not in scope

You can search long and hard for it, but you won’t find it in the text. We think it's safe to say this won’t be introduced in the foreseeable future.

Trade: Directorate-General for Agri’s stance on trade creates challenges and opportunities

The Vision takes a tougher stance on the residue levels of the most hazardous pesticides on imported food products like fruits and vegetables, and makes it clear that high EU standards on animal welfare should also apply to imported meat, dairy and eggs. This is supportive for EU farmers as it raises the bar for their competitors. For some EU importers of fruits and vegetables, like citrus fruit, it will require more effort to make sure their suppliers comply.

At the same time, the drive for more reciprocity when it comes to animal welfare standards makes it more complicated to strike trade deals with large meat exporters such as Australia. The Vision also promises a ‘comprehensive protein strategy’, which would primarily focus on animal feed and reducing dependencies on imports (mainly from South America). This is at odds with the recently agreed EU Mercosur trade agreement and could resurface during the ratification process of the trade agreement, which is expected in the second half of 2025.

EU funding: Agriculture faces fierce competition for EU funds

Food security, energy security, safety – they’re all important. But when you take into account what the Vision says about public support for agriculture (better targeted) and the broader debate on the next EU budget, it seems quite probable that the share of agriculture in the budget will decrease – especially because energy and defence security are critical issues for the EU. The fact that there is no mention of an Agri-Food Just Transition Fund in the Vision is a clear signal that calls by stakeholders for more public funding are not being answered. As a result, we expect more calls from policymakers to the private sector to step in when it comes to financing.

Steering demand: EU delegates responsibility to national governments

As we've indicated previously, there is very little appetite to influence or steer consumer demand at the EU level. Scientists consider a partial shift away from animal-based to plant-based food an effective strategy to make the food system more sustainable – but plant-based food isn’t featured in the Vision in any meaningful way. Part of the argumentation is that the main competence lies not in Brussels but with national governments. Since many national governments aren’t keen on demand-side policies either, we expect that these tools will largely remain in the toolbox.

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