The immediate catalyst is a sudden market reassessment of Fed independence—news that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the Fed Chair triggered fears of monetary-policy politicization, broad-based dollar weakness and a flight-to-quality bid in bullion. Sell-side desks and proprietary-trading books now price in a higher systemic-risk premium. Political/institutional shocks of this magnitude typically generate an acute spike in precious-metal demand.

ETF flows remain supportive: holdings and net creations have stayed at cycle highs since end-2025, converting a headline-driven spike into a more durable uptrend should inflows persist.

Macro tailwinds reinforce the narrative. Falling real U.S. Treasury yields and a declining DXY reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, lifting both physical uptake and derivatives positioning. Concurrently, risk-off asset allocation has pushed hedge funds and family offices to raise their strategic weight to metals, amplifying short-term buy-flow intensity.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop is a bullish convergence of "event-driven catalyst + supportive liquidity".

On the daily chart the prevailing structure is a strong, well-sequenced uptrend. The moving-average stack remains bullishly aligned (MAs in perfect ascending order), underscoring trend persistence.

Monday's close above the 4,550 resistance invalidates the prior range and opens the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at 4,728.50 as the next upside objective.

Traders are recommended to use the 1-hour and 4-hour MA10/MA20 as dynamic support, and to adopt a buy-the-dip stance with a bullish bias.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4580.00

Target Price: 4720.00

Stop Loss: 4510.00

Valid Until: 27, January, 2026, 23:00:00

Support: 4570.00/4550.00

Resistance Levels: 4700.00/4728.00

Tensions between Iran and the United States may boost prices of traditional safe-haven assets like gold. U.S. President Trump threatened retaliation if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the U.S. and Israel against any intervention. On Monday, Trump announced that any country trading with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its trade with the U.S. Traders are closely watching the U.S. CPI data due on Tuesday, with both overall and core CPI for December expected to rise 2.7% year-on-year. Any sign of rising U.S. inflation could strengthen the dollar and pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices in the short term. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased by 6.24 tons from the previous day to 1,070.8 tons. Meanwhile, CME Group announced that starting after the close on January 13th, it will adjust margin calculation methods for precious metals futures (including gold and silver), shifting from fixed amounts to a percentage of contract notional value, approximately 5% for gold contracts and 9% for silver. This adjustment may affect leverage costs for some investors but also reflects the exchange's management of market volatility expectations.

During a speech on Sunday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he is under criminal investigation, sparking an independence crisis and triggering risk-off sentiment in global markets. Powell stated that the U.S. Department of Justice has issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed and threatened criminal charges over his June 2025 testimony to the Senate Banking Committee regarding the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C. headquarters. He called these threats "pretexts" aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. Market concerns suggest that if the Fed's independence erodes, it could weaken its credibility in fighting inflation, potentially pushing long-term inflation expectations higher and structurally pressuring the dollar's value. In turn, this outlook has failed to attract meaningful buyers for the dollar, further supporting gold prices. However, gold bulls are waiting for the latest U.S. consumer inflation data. The closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released last Friday supported the view that policy may remain on hold in the first quarter. Yet traders still expect the Fed to cut rates twice later this year.

Regarding the 4-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with moving averages diverging upward. After breaking above the Bollinger Upper Band, prices faced resistance and may pull back to around the EMA12 and Bollinger Middle Band at 4,562 and 4,503, respectively. If they stabilize, there is a high probability of another breakout above 4,630 and 4,650. RSI is at 72, indicating a dominant buy-side market. Meanwhile, the daily chart indicates that prices are oscillating upward along the Bollinger Upper Band and EMA12. MACD momentum weakens somewhat, but as long as prices do not fall below EMA12, the uptrend remains intact. Resistance lies near previous highs and round numbers at approximately 4,630 and 4,700. RSI is at 69, reflecting strong buying sentiment. It is better to sell now and buy later.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4581

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 4700

Support: 4500/4200/4100

Resistance: 4630/4650/5000

Geopolitical tensions have intensified as U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stern warning, stating that the United States would respond with decisive force should Iranian authorities employ lethal measures against protesters. This rhetoric was further amplified by the administration's announcement that any nation engaging in trade with Iran will face an immediate 25% tariff on all business conducted with the United States. These developments have injected a significant layer of risk-off sentiment into global markets as investors weigh the potential for trade disruptions.

On the domestic front, a recent New York Times headline revealed that federal prosecutors have allegedly initiated an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In a direct response, Powell released a video statement clarifying that these legal threats are unrelated to his past congressional testimonies or administrative duties. Instead, he characterized the allegations as "pretexts" from the Trump administration, asserting that the prospect of criminal charges is a direct result of the Federal Reserve maintaining its independence and setting interest rates based on economic data rather than political preference.

Regarding economic indicators, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December, missing the 60,000 forecast. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined to 4.4% from 4.6%, tempering fears of a major labor market contraction. Simultaneously, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54 in January, exceeding expectations. Nevertheless, the Fed remains concerned about inflation expectations, which ticked up to 3.4% on a five-year horizon, signaling that the fight against price pressures remains a priority.

In Switzerland, the latest inflation figures have provided the Swiss National Bank (SNB) with breathing room. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged month-over-month in December, a recovery from the previous contraction. On an annual basis, inflation stands at 0.1%, aligning with central bank projections. SNB meeting minutes confirm a cautious stance, with officials seeing no immediate necessity to shift interest rates into negative territory, citing potential risks to the financial system while noting a gradual improvement in the broader economic outlook.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade within a dominant bullish structure. After reaching a local peak of 0.8017 in the previous session, the pair entered a corrective phase, descending toward the 0.7955 region. This zone is strategically significant as it lies in close proximity to the 100-period Moving Average, currently positioned at 0.7948.

This area is expected to serve as a technical "launchpad" for the next leg up. The current floor coincides with a historical resistance-turned-support level; if the price confirms this S/R flip, it would provide a strong technical foundation for a renewed upward impulse.

From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to a local low of 36, nearing oversold territory. Notably, this is the lowest RSI reading within the current bullish cycle, creating visible bullish divergences as the indicator shows exhaustion even against higher price levels. This suggests that the recent bearish correction is rapidly losing velocity, potentially allowing buyers to reclaim control of the price action.

The primary upside objective for this anticipated move is the 0.8075 resistance zone, a significant local ceiling. However, traders should remain vigilant: a failure to hold the 0.7948 support would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and likely lead to a deeper retracement toward the next major demand zone.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.7965

Target price: 0.8076

Stop loss: 0.7940

Validity: Jan 23, 2025 15:00:00

Economic sentiment within the Eurozone has shown notable signs of recovery, according to the latest Sentix Investor Confidence Index, which improved to -1.8 in January from -6.2 in December. This represents the strongest performance since July of last year and highlights a significant shift in institutional investor optimism regarding the region's economic trajectory. Although this data underscores a renewed sense of confidence, its immediate impact on the Euro's exchange rate has remained relatively contained.

Eurozone inflation has stabilized near the European Central Bank (ECB) target, reinforcing the prevailing consensus among policymakers that interest rates should remain at their current levels unless the economic outlook shifts dramatically. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Thursday that current rates are appropriate, though he cautioned that "enormous uncertainty" persists due to heightened geopolitical risks. Supporting this cautious optimism, consumer consumption rose by 0.2% month-over-month in November, surpassing estimates. Conversely, German economic data remains mixed; while Industrial Production exceeded forecasts, the trade balance narrowed as exports experienced a decline.

In the United States, the political landscape has become increasingly volatile. A headline in the New York Times recently reported that federal prosecutors have allegedly opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In response, Powell released a video statement asserting that the threat is not related to his past testimonies or internal administrative matters. He characterized the allegations as "pretexts" from the Trump administration, stating that the threat of criminal charges is a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on public service rather than presidential preference.

On the data front, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that Nonfarm Payrolls added 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of the 60,000 forecast. Despite the slower hiring, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.4% from 4.6%, effectively easing concerns regarding a rapid deterioration of the labor market. Furthermore, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54 in January, beating expectations. However, inflation expectations remain a concern, with five-year expectations ticking up to 3.4%, indicating that the Fed’s battle against price pressures is far from over.

The EUR/USD pair has consistently failed to establish a new "higher high," a clear technical signal that the bearish trend remains the dominant market force. This downward structure originated on December 23rd, when the pair reached a peak of 1.1809 before entering a sustained corrective phase.

A significant technical shift has occurred as the 200-period Moving Average, which previously functioned as a reliable support floor, is now acting as a resistance ceiling. This "support-turned-resistance" flip suggests that a new bearish impulse is likely underway. The primary downside objective is currently set at the 1.1604 horizontal support level—a zone where the price has found buyers in the past and could potentially trigger a temporary bounce.

From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 57 level. While this is not yet in overbought territory, a notable divergence/convergence is forming: the RSI is hitting higher levels than its previous peaks while the price itself fails to move higher. This often indicates that bullish momentum is exhausting rapidly, allowing bears to reclaim control.

Traders should monitor the 1.1700 level closely. A decisive breakout and close above this resistance zone would effectively invalidate the current bearish setup, potentially opening the door for a more prolonged bullish recovery toward the 1.1750 region.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1665

Target price: 1.1605

Stop loss: 1.1705

Validity: Jan 23, 2025 15:00:00

Driven by a market reassessment of political risks surrounding the White House and the Fed, gold opened sharply higher on Monday and hit a new record, with silver following. Gold looks set to test the key level at 4,685; a decisive break above that point could pave the way toward the 5,000 psychological level.

In addition, after a year in which silver led the market, momentum may be rotating back into gold — a shift consistent with rising concerns about institutional credibility rather than cyclical inflation.

The immediate trigger was news that US prosecutors opened a criminal inquiry into Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. The development rattled markets and reignited concerns about growing political interference with the Fed at a time when policy credibility remains critical.

The move is widely seen as the latest attack by the Trump administration on the Fed. While policymakers remain concerned about rekindling price pressures or undoing hard-won disinflation, the Fed is under increasing pressure to move toward easier policy.

Powell confirmed on Sunday that the Fed had received a grand-jury subpoena and the prospect of criminal charges. The matter relates to his earlier testimony to Congress regarding a $2.5 billion renovation at Fed headquarters, but Powell placed the issue in a broader political context.

He warned that the action should be seen against a backdrop of ongoing threats and pressure intended to force rate cuts and increase political control over monetary policy. He stated bluntly: “This unprecedented action should be viewed in the broader context of ongoing threats and sustained pressure.” Powell’s prior remarks have indicated the Fed’s readiness to defend its independence.

For markets, Fed easing expectations, continued ETF inflows, and robust physical demand together underpin the long-term bullish case for gold. However, in the near term, given that prices are at record highs, investors should remain constructive but cautious and prepare for heightened volatility.

Technically, the upward trend in gold resumed after breaking the previous record high of 4,550, and it is now moving toward 4,685, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the 3,267–4,381 range. A clear break above that level could allow a run at the 5,000 psychological mark and even 5,111, the 100% retracement.

Conversely, as long as the 4,381 resistance (now turned support) holds, the outlook remains bullish even if a pullback occurs.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4,635

Target Price: 4,395

Stop Loss: 4,678

Valid Until: February 9, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4,550 / 4,518 / 4,485

Resistance: 4,632 / 4,655 / 4,685

Silver (XAG/USD) continued its explosive advance on Monday, trading around $85.40 at the time of writing, marking a 7.0% gain on the day. The precious metal is holding firmly onto the bulk of its intraday gains, edging closer to its all-time high of $58.87, as investors intensify their rotation into safe-haven assets amid a rapidly deteriorating global risk backdrop.

The latest surge in Silver is not occurring in isolation. It forms part of a broader rally across the precious metals complex, with Gold (XAU/USD) also extending gains as investors reassess geopolitical, political, and macroeconomic risks. The current environment reflects a sharp shift away from risk-sensitive assets, with capital increasingly flowing into stores of value as uncertainty dominates the global outlook.

At the heart of the risk-off move are escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Iran, where ongoing unrest and an increasingly hostile exchange of rhetoric between Tehran and Washington have amplified fears of a broader regional confrontation. Markets remain highly sensitive to any developments that could disrupt energy flows or trigger military escalation, conditions that historically provide strong tailwinds for precious metals.

Beyond the Middle East, concerns are also mounting over Arctic security, following discussions among European leaders regarding a strengthened military presence in Greenland. While often overlooked, the Arctic has emerged as a strategic flashpoint, with its geopolitical significance growing alongside climate-driven accessibility and global power competition. The combination of Middle Eastern instability and rising Arctic militarization has added another layer of uncertainty, further undermining global risk sentiment.

Compounding these external shocks is an unprecedented political situation in the United States. Confidence in the country’s monetary framework has been rattled by the launch of a criminal investigation targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The move has reignited concerns over the politicization of US monetary policy, eroding institutional credibility at a time when market confidence is already fragile.

This development has weighed heavily on the US Dollar, which typically shares an inverse relationship with Dollar-denominated commodities. As trust in the Federal Reserve’s independence weakens, the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal diminishes—creating a supportive backdrop for Silver and other hard assets.

From a macroeconomic perspective, recent US labor market data have reinforced expectations that the economy is losing momentum. Job creation fell short of market forecasts, signaling a gradual cooling in employment conditions. In response, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, even as policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming January meeting.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, structurally underpinning demand. In this context, Silver’s rally appears to be driven not only by short-term fear but also by a longer-term repricing of monetary conditions.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Any confirmation of slowing inflation or a dovish shift in policy rhetoric could further accelerate Silver’s upside, especially given the already fragile geopolitical and political landscape.

From a technical standpoint, Silver has posted sharp intraday gains, carving out new all-time highs and confirming the dominance of the short-term bullish trend. Prices continue to trade decisively above the EMA50, reinforcing trend stability and signaling strong underlying momentum.

Silver’s price action remains aligned with its ascending trendline, while relative strength indicators continue to flash positive signals despite operating in overbought territory—a characteristic often seen during strong directional trends rather than a sign of imminent reversal.

Importantly, Silver is now positioned to violate a major resistance structure aligned with its current all-time high. A confirmed four-hour close above this level would validate a technical breakout and open the door for further upside acceleration.

Should this breakout materialize, the next bullish extension is projected toward an initial upside target near 91.00, with momentum-driven flows likely to dominate price action in the absence of nearby technical resistance.

BUY SILVER

ENTRYR PRICE: 84.50

STOP LOSS: 82.00

TAKE PROFIT: 91.00