WTI Slips as OPEC+ Output Increase Fuels Supply Glut Concerns

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI crude oil remains under pressure below $69 as OPEC+ ramps up production and concerns over a global supply surplus outweigh lingering geopolitical risks. Markets are closely monitoring Iran's potential return to exports and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

68.500

Entry Price

52.000

78.000

68.648 +0.090 +0.13%

0.0

Pips

Flat

52.000

Exit Price

68.500

Entry Price

78.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded lower on Monday, slipping below the $68.50 mark as investors continued to assess the implications of higher OPEC+ production and the growing prospect of a global supply surplus. Although crude managed to post back-to-back gains at the end of last week, the broader trend remains fragile, with prices hovering near multi-month lows as supply concerns overshadow demand optimism.

The latest catalyst came after OPEC+ confirmed another production increase of 188,000 barrels per day beginning in August, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The move reflects confidence that geopolitical disruptions across the Middle East have eased enough to justify restoring additional supply. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has largely normalized following weeks of uncertainty, reducing fears of immediate supply bottlenecks.

Even so, geopolitical risks continue to provide a degree of support beneath the market. Investors remain cautious that renewed tensions involving Iran or disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly tighten global supplies. Given that roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through the strategic waterway, any escalation could rapidly reverse the current bearish sentiment.

Adding further pressure to prices are reports that Iran has resumed discussions with Japanese companies regarding crude exports under a temporary US sanctions waiver. The reported 60-day exemption, which expires on August 21, raises the possibility of additional Iranian barrels returning to global markets if negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue to progress. However, prospective buyers are reportedly seeking stronger assurances over shipping security before committing to purchases.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil remains under firm bearish pressure on the daily chart, with price trading near $68.60 after breaking below the important $70.00 support zone. The broader structure has clearly shifted in favor of sellers, with crude forming lower highs and lower lows since rejecting the $104.00–$108.00 resistance region.

The latest breakdown is technically significant because $70.00 had acted as a major support floor. Now that price is trading below this level, the same zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. Any short-term rebound toward $70.00–$72.00 may attract renewed selling pressure unless buyers reclaim that region decisively.

On the downside, the next major support sits around $56.00, which aligns with the projected bearish move on the chart. A sustained break below that level would expose deeper losses toward $52.00–$50.00.

On the upside, WTI would need to recover above $72.00 to ease immediate bearish pressure. A stronger move above $80.00 would be required to invalidate the current downside structure.

Momentum remains weak, with price consolidating near recent lows rather than showing a strong bullish reversal. This suggests the current pause is more likely bearish continuation than accumulation.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 68.50

STOP LOSS: 78.00

TAKE PROFIT : 52.00

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